NFL Week 4 Picks

Lines courtesy of Friday’s New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last Week 8 – 5 – 3
Season 23- 20- 5

Jets (-3.5) BILLS: The Jets are the better team from top to bottom and should get the win. Jones is running with purpose behind a getting better by the week Jet offensive line. The Bills will be without MLB Paul Posluszny making it a bit easier to establish the run/ play action Jet offense. Marshawn Lynch is a tough tailback, but outside of him the Bills have established little on offense this season and go into this game with Edwards as QB. I think the Jets are a playoff team his year, so a win against a weaker opponent, even though it is a rivalry road game, is mandatory at 1-2.
Pick: Jets (-3.5)

Eagles (-3) GIANTS: Eagles offensive line vs. Giant front 7 should go the Eagles way, allowing for Westbrook to run between the tackles. McNabb is getting better each week as he gets back into game rhythm after last season was cut short by the ACL tear. Giants will be wary of play action so to minimize the big play downfield to Kevin Curtis, which worked to perfection against the Lion’s last week more than a couple times. The Eagles should move the ball and score a few TDs. The Giant offense is playing well behind a so far very solid O-line. Ward is running hard and Manning seems more poised this year than the last few. The Eagles will most likely be without Lito Shepard so Sheldon Brown will be covering a hurting, but very dangerous Plaxico Burress. I think the Eagles are the better team and will win in a divisional game that always seems to entertain.
Pick: Eagles(-3)

DOLPHINS (-4) Raiders: The Dolphins would be best served if they traded away a few of their remaining assets to get some draft picks. Jason Taylor would be welcomed addition on a contending team such as Dallas. Chris Chambers is the stud WR that Philly or Tennessee could use. For the game against the Raiders, I see Oakland winning the game on a last second FG by Janikowski, 10-9. You know how when golfing, one carries the beer with them, laying the can on the ground before shooting and then picking up the beer after the shot? Well, it would be infinitely entertaining if Janikowski came out for every FG with a beer in his hand, layed it down a few yards behind him, kicked the FG, then picked up the can and took a big slug. If allowed this method, I guarantee his kick percentage goes up to about 92.
Pick: Raiders (+4)

Texans (-3) FALCONS: In the brief Texan history, is this the first time they are road favorites? The Texans are playing very well defensively and will need to continue that trend in order to win because of injuries that have taken a toll on their depth. They will most likely be without WRs Andre Johnson and rookie Jacoby Jones. RB Ahman Green is doubtful. Atlanta seemed to get some semblance of offensive rhythm last week. Roddy White is a playmaker and I still feel they need to make Jerious Norewood the featured back. This is a game that Bobby Patrino needs to show the Atlanta fan base his quality as a head coach and have his team prepared for a tough Texan team.
Pick: Atlanta (+3)

Ravens (-4.5) BROWNS: Is Romeo Crennel a solid NFL head coach? I am really not sure, but I know that this is a game that he must have the Browns hyped up for. Crennel, a highly touted defensive coordinator for the Patriots before getting the HC job in Cleveland, has to get better production from his run defense in order to win. Kamerion Wimbley is a beast at LB, a solid playmaker on defense. The offense, which has moved the ball well the past two weeks, gets to show some mettle this week. If Winslow plays, I think the Browns move the ball again this week. He is such a mismatch for LBs, even the ones on Baltimore, and is the guy most needed in the Brown offense for them to be effective. Lewis is running hard behind an effective O-line and I bet he can’t wait to get a crack at his old team. Cleveland is playing with confidence and should be riding a two game winning streak.
Pick: Browns (+4.5)

Bears (-3) LIONS: The Bears will come into this game very banged up on defense. Vasher and Tillman are both doubtful with Lance Briggs and Tommy Harris nursing injuries. The Bears go as far as their defense will take them so these injuries are very concerning. Brian Griese needed to get a chance as starter. It may not have been all Grossman’s fault for the offensive ineptitude displayed the first 3 weeks, but a change in energy and decision making was needed. The Lions have an offense that can score in bunches and with a depleted Bear defense, will put up 20+ points. Kitna has proven himself, from his time in Cincinnati and now Detroit, as a skilled passer with a toughness to go with it.
Pick: Lions (+3)

Packers (-1.5) VIKINGS: I have been throwing darts at the Pack since the start of the season and they have thus far proved me very wrong. I do not feel that they are an elite team in the NFC and will wait for them to falter so I can say “Told you so”, but until then I am going to ride their wave.
Pick: Packers (-1.5)

COWBOYS (-13) Rams: Brian Leonard is as good or better than Steven Jackson as a receiver and a blocker. I would like to see the Rams go to an all out air attack to test a Cowboy secondary that has yet to prove they are any good. Problem is that the Rams have serious issues with the O-line and Bulger is playing with sore/broken ribs. Another problem is that the Ram defense is playing worse than their offense and are going up against a Dallas offense that is playing extremely well. Too many question marks for the Rams and the Boys are at home.
Pick: Cowboys (-13)

PANTHERS (-3) Buccaneers: I have documented in my preseason posts that I see a playoff spot for the Bucs this season. They are playing well on both sides of the ball and Gruden seems to have the confidence of his players. Carolina was fortunate last week to get DeAngelo Hall riled up enough to where he blew the game for Atlanta, handing Carolina the victory. Delhomme is unsure if he will play.
Pick: Buccaneers (+3)

Seahawks (-2) 49ERS: This is game that I really don’t know how to analyze and would certainly not bet, so I will ask a question instead. Why is football the only major sport where fan allegiance falls outside of the local teams? Let me explain. I live and have lived in NYC my whole life so I can only speak of my experience here, dealing with people that have grown up here. Immigrants to NYC from other cities in the US are not part of my question. All of my friends, and I would say most native New Yorkers like either the Mets or Yankees in baseball, the Knicks in basketball and either the Rangers or Islanders in hockey, but when it comes to football, allegiances run from coast to coast. Sure there are a lot of Jet and Giant fans, but the proportion of non Jet/ Giant fans is greater than one would imagine. Is this a nationwide phenomena? Do Miami natives root for Dallas and vice versa? How about in the New England area. Are there non Patriot fans? Somebody get on this and let me know.
Pick: 49ers (+2)

Steelers (-6) CARDINALS: The argument that Arizona has a great chance because Whissenhunt and Grimm know the Steelers better than their current coaches is bogus. The Steelers are playing excellent football and to beat them, Arizona needs to play equally excellent football. I will concede that Whisenhunt may help the Cardinals with Steeler player strengths and weaknesses, but that is it. The reason I am picking the Cardinals here is because strange things happen in the desert, Hines Ward is hurt and I kind of like the two QB system that Arizona is starting to employ. TMQ columnist Gregg Easterbrook, a guy you all should read, asked last week what will be the new offensive fad in football, the NFL in particular? The two QB system may be it.
Pick: Cardinals (+6)

CHARGERS (-11.5) Chiefs: If I was getting paid for my analysis and picks, I would spend time on this one and really delve into whether or not the Chiefs will cover. Since I am not, and have an incredible disdain for Herm Edwards, and because the Chargers are my pick as AFC champ, I am taking the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers (-11.5)

COLTS (-9.5) Broncos: This is a lousy spread, but given the Bronco lackluster play and the Colts being at home, a deserved one. I am taking the Colts based on their need to explode offensively every once in a while and this seems like a good time, at home against a reeling opponent.
Pick: Colts (-9.5)

Patriots (-7) BENGALS: Not having Rudi Johnson is a huge blow for the Bengals. Kenny Watson is serviceable, but nowhere near the quality of Rudi Johnson. Can the Bengals move the ball without Rudi. I think they can but to what extent? With Cincinnati’s defense playing as poorly as they are, how many points do the Bengals have to score to win- 25, 30, 35? Does a 30-27 Bengal win seem feasible? I read that a tactic Cincinnati may employ is a 4 down lineman, 2 LB, 5 DB defense to try and force the Pats to run. You know what, if the Bengals do go with that defense, the Pats will run on the up-until-now- horrid Bengal defense. Every time I want to write down Bengals as my pick, I get a knot in my stomach. I think my sub-conscience wants the Pats to lose, but my brain is telling me that there is no way the Bengals stop Brady and company this week. I really don’t want to do it, but..
Pick: Patriots (-7)

Fiorentina vs Roma

Fiorentina vs. Roma: Got home for the last 20 minutes of the match. The penalty call against Roma in the 80 something minute was a combination of Fiorentina striker Vieri's experience and a really bad call by the referee. I am going to try and explain what happened to those that did not watch. Bear with me. Vieri was 1 on 1 with a Roma defender along the left side of the penalty area. The Roma defender went for a slide tackle and his attempt did not result in touching the ball, but was also at an angle that was innocuous to Vieri’s run. The slide tackle was very log and was initiated just as Vieri and the ball went left. As the ball was going left towards the end line, Vieri basically tripped himself on the sliding defender. It sounds weird, I know, but you need to see how long the slide tackle attempt lasted in distance to get a good picture of how Vieri easily could have avoided the defender and gotten to the ball. However, he knew if he tripped himself on the defender, a penalty would be called. Mutu chipped the ensuing penalty attempt strait down the middle as Roma’s Brazilian keeper, Doni, went right. I have watched Mutu play twice this year for Fiorentina and have been impressed with his ability from both games. I did a bit of research on his career and it seems that his goals per game has increased considerably since arriving at Florence. Mutu’s Romanian national side, which he is a vice captain of, resides atop Group G of Euro 2008 qualifying.

Week 3 Thoughts

Due to my inability to consume liquor in a normal fashion, I was in the fetal position on my couch with a hangover belonging in the annals of grown man stupidity, so I was unable to go to the Rover and check out the non-local games this weekend. I employed the gulp-and-refill-my-cup immediately method of vodka-sprite imbibing on Saturday evening, as opposed to the civilized sip and wait to see the effects technique used by most upright walking humans over the age of 17. These are the 4 games I watched this weekend.

Jets defeat Dolphins: The Jets were in control of this game throughout, especially in the second half when Thomas Jones and the gelling-nicely Jet offensive line took over. The Jets are a very effective play action offense and that begins with the running game and O-line. The offense looked sharp when they needed to and it is nice to see Jones running with authority even when the gain is minimal. Pennington made a couple of nice touch passes near the end zone and was effective even though the final numbers are far from gaudy. The defense played well until the final 6 minutes. Take away a few Ronnie Brown gashes through the line and I think this was a solid effort.. Leon Washington is a nice replacement for the injured All-Pro return man Justin Miller. He was untouched on his TD return, but his speed and running back instincts should make him a viable return man. Miami got a world-class day from Ronnie Brown and some production from Chris Chambers, but there is little they have to offer as a team and are now in the lead for the First Overall Pick Sweepstakes with an 0-3 record.

Giants defeat Redskins: Not many people felt that the Giants were going to win this game and I was one of them. They played a great second half on both sides of the ball, making the big plays when needed. I have a beef with the Redskin play-calling in the second half. Every 1st down the Skins ran the ball. New York knew they were going to run and so they were ready. I do not have the stats in front of me, but I bet the Redskin average on 1st down in the second half was less than 3 yards. Also, on the last series when the Redskins were driving for the tying TD, why was Portis on the sidelines? I know Ledelle Betts is a good runner, but he is not as talented as Clinton Portis. I also did not like the time management. The first snap was botched and I am really not sure if Cambell intended to spike, but after the recovery, there was a good minute or so on the clock so why spike the ball to stop the clock forcing 3rd and goal? They could have huddled for twenty seconds, called a roll out and leave it up to Campbell to make a decision to go for the endzone or throw the ball away. Also after the 3rd down run, the Skins hurried up to the line for a quick 4th down snap. Gibbs could have been in his ear on the second down spike and the 4th down play to control his QB, guiding him and calming him down.

Cowboys defeat Bears: The Cowboys can stake claim to best team in the NFC right now. Their defense has yet to be effective against a good offense. They were torched by the Giants Week 1, handled the punchless Miami offense in Week 2 and then did a good job against a bad Bear offense this weekend. Marion Barber is a tough runner to bring down and could start seeing the majority of carries. Romo is looking very sharp and he has two quality All Pro weapons to throw to in Owens and Witten. If Patrick Crayton can get over his mental problem of saying “don’t drop it, don’t drop it, don’t drop it” when the ball is coming his way, the Cowboys will be even more potent. I am glad Lovie Smith declared Brian Griese the starter for Week 4. It may not be all Grossman’s fault on offense, especially with Benson and the WRs playing hot potato with the football, but a change is needed.

Titans defeat Saints: Every time I watch the Titans play, I jump deeper into their bandwagon. Please get Young a stud WR to rely on. Jones is ok and Moulds is way past his prime. The Titan defense has looked solid the first 3 weeks. The Saints are in bad shape at 0-3 and McCallister out for the remainder of the season. One thing I would implore Saint management to work on is getting Bush to make the correct reads at the line of scrimmage when running between the tackles. He seems to lack vision in seeing the cutback lane to move north-south when the designed running lane has been compromised, relying on his speed to try and get to the outside most times. I am sure he has been able to outrun most defenses since Pop Warner, but he is not going to outrun the defense at this level.

NFL Week 3 Picks

Home Team are in CAPS. Spreads are from the Friday New York Post.

Last Week 9 -7 -0
Season 15- 15- 2

JETS (-3) Dolphins: The Jets are the better team and will get their first victory. Miami’s defense is decent but no where near the level they were playing at the past few years. Mangini will get Thomas Jones the ball early and use his effectiveness for play action purposes. Remember that the Jets have faced two of the best defenses in the league the first two weeks and were dropped passes away from sending the Baltimore game into overtime. Miami is having offensive line issues that will help the Jet defense get on track. Miami will be in the running for first overall pick in next season’s draft and this game will help them achieve that prize.
Pick: Jets (-3)


REDSKINS (-3.5) Giants: An injured triceps will force G Randy Thomas to miss most if not all of the season. He is a very effective lineman, but the Skins should not be too concerned. Rather than filling in his spot with a young player, veteran Jason Fabini will take over at RG. The fall off will be minimal and the Redskins should be able to move the ball against a Giant defense that has not showed up yet this season. Even if the Giant’s defensive strength, the defensive line, comes to play, QB Jason Cambell has the mobility to escape the pocket and make some plays on the run against a very weak Giant secondary. Giant QB Eli Manning has played very well in the first two games, has the weapons to move the ball, and combined with an offensive line that is playing well, should score a few touchdowns. The thing that keeps popping in my head is the abysmal Giant defense and until they fix the problem, cannot be counted on to win games, or in my case, cover the spread.
Pick: Redskins (- 3.5)


Cols (-6) TEXANS: A big test for Houston’s line play. Without playmaker and all world WR Andre Johnson, the Texans need to 1) run the ball to control clock and 2) get pressure on Manning. The Texan O-line is playing well this year and should get some running lanes for Green and if that goes well, some time for Schaub to throw. The thing is though, who will Schuab throw to? The Texans do have two pass catching TE in Owen Daniels and Jeb Putzier who will get the majority of looks. Pre- season rookie standout Jacoby Jones will get his chance to shine in Johnson’s absence and is a deep threat assuming the Texans can establish a running game. The Texan defensive line is playing well with the LBs and secondary doing a decent job. We all know about the Colt offensive prowess so I will not say much about them here except that playing on the turf in Houston is similar to their home turf, so their team speed and timing rhythm in their passing game will be in sync. I documented in my AFC South Preview that a 9 win season for Houston was realistic this year. With a healthy Andre Johnson this game would be a no brainer for me to pick Houston, but that is not the case this week.
Pick: Colts (-6)

Chargers (-5) PACKERS: Did Favre convince anyone that he is still the passer he was a few years back due to his domination of the Giants? He is not what he once was and there are still no playmakers on the outside for him to get the ball to. The chargers have a very good defense that will get to Favre and force him into some turnovers. Offensively the Chargers are ready to break out. Regardless of the Packer strong defense and this being a road tilt, I see the Chargers putting up 30+ points this week simply because they are too talented on the offensive line, QB, RB and TE. Facing the Bears and then a motivated Patriot team is not a real indicator to how good your offense is, especially this early in the season. LT will shine this week as will the entire Charger team against an inferior Packer squad that will lay it’s chances on their defense.
Pick: Chargers (-5)


CHIEFS (-3) Vikings: In what will surely be the 1pm -game-not-shown-if-your-bar-does-not-have-enough-TVs, the Vikings will get the ball to Peterson and then rely on a good defense to bottle up Herm Edwards’ pre forward pass offensive game plan. I will be picking against the Chiefs all season.
Pick: Vikings (+3)

EAGLES (-6) Lions: This is a smelly spread. I guess the odds-makers figure that the Lions really have not beaten anyone yet and the Eagles gave away both games. A big question here is will the Eagle secondary be able to go up against the Lions’ receiving corp of Roy Williams, Mike Furry and Calvin Johnson? They should be able to limit the big plays and make enough stops to help McNabb get on track. The Eagle receivers need to get open, especially Kevin Curtis. He looked really good in pre-season 1st team reps but has yet to show that form in the first 2 games of the season. Westbrook should have a nice day. Bottom line here is that the Eagles are a better team and need to pick up the win. I see a back door cover by the Eagles here on a late FG to make the final score
27-20.
Pick: EAGLES (-6)


PATRIOTS (-16.5) Bills: Buffalo has shown very little offensively the first two weeks and traveling to New England will not help. The Pats are playing superior football right now and even though the Bills have some defensive playmakers, Brady and company are on a different level and should move the ball this week. I would normally see a spread this high and automatically go with the dog, but a 40-17 final is a realistic outcome.
Pick: PATS (-16.5)

STEELERS (-9) 49ers: Pitt has yet to be tested this season and the niners are coming off two close, hard earned victories so they are more battle tested than Pitt. The loss of OLB Manny Lawson is a tough blow to the niner defense because of his tremendous speed on the outside. However, the 49ers still have an aggressive defense with good team speed and a defensive front that is playing well (6 sacks last week), so they will get pressure on Rothlisberger, forcing him to make quicker reads than he has been forced to make so far this season. Frank Gore is running very strong, has been the 49er offense thus far and should be able to find some room behind an offensive line that is playing well. For San Fran to win this game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has shown. Off season WR acquisition Darrell Jackson and physically intimidating TE Vernon Davis need to be thrown to more. I can’t say that I see the 49ers winning this game, but 9 points is a lot.
Pick: 49ers (+9)

RAVENS (-8) Cardinals: A big test for Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt to keep Leinart calm. Matt Leinart has shown flashes of talent this season but has been very inconsistent. Zona will try to establish Edge but the crux of potential victory will fall on Leinart’s shoulders. Baltimore still boasts a top notch defense and will be the reason they win this game. I just don’t see them dominating on the offensive end against the Cards. Arizona is playing with a lot of confidence coming off of their win against Seattle last week and should be able to carry that momentum to this week keeping the score close.
Pick: Zona (+8)

BUCS (-3.5) Rams: I documented that the Bucs will be a playoff team this year so why not pick them at home against a reeling St. Louis team. Aside from Steven Jackson, the offense looked old and slow the first two weeks and the defense looked less than ordinary. Tampa is feeling good about themselves and Cadillac will have a big game this week. He plays with a recklessness that gets him hurt sometimes, but he is a big time RB that is looking to make amends on an off year last year. The Tampa defense has looked good the first two weeks and should be able to disrupt Bulger and contain Jackson to under 100 yards because of the Rams’ offensive line issues.
Pick: BUCS (-3.5)

BRONCOS (-3) Jags: The Jags score 13 points at home against the Falcons and are only 3 point dogs in Denver? The linesmen in Vegas know a lot more than I do, but for reasons I described in my AFC South Preview, I refuse to take the Jaguars this year.
Pick: BRONCOS (-3)

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) Bengals: The Bengal defense was beaten down last week, while I’m not going to say it was a total fluke, I will say that they are better than their showing against Cleveland. They do have talent at every level on defense in DE Justin Smith, LB Landon Johnson and CB Deltha O’Neal so the playmakers are there. The defensive unit need not be Chicagoesque for the Bengals to win, just hold the opponents under 27 and the Bengals can win any week because of their offense. I like the hook in this game.
Pick: Bengals (+3.5)

RAIDERS (3) Browns: The Raider defense is solid and could control the game, but if last week’s exceptional offensive line play by the Browns becomes the norm rather than the exception, the Browns have the talent to put up some points. I see the Browns playing well again and winning this game outright.
Pick: Browns (+3)

Panthers (-3.5) FALCONS: Does anyone really care about either of these two teams? The Falcons do not have much on offense and really need to get the ball more into Jerious Norewood’s hands. Why have Warrick Dunn be your starter when you know he is almost through with his career? See what you have in Norewood by making him the full time starter so you can go into the draft next year with a clear idea of the RB situation. It will be fun to watch a top 5 cover corner in DeAngelo Hall go up against a top 5 receiver in Steve Smith. The Panthers are the more talented team and should win this game.
Pick: Panthers (-3.5)

BEARS (-3) Cowboys: The cowboys moved offensively the first two weeks on the strength of their talented offense and maybe more influential, the lack of a good defense across from them. The Bears pose a much stronger test to Romo et. all and will be able to disrupt the Cowboy attack. The question with the Bears will remain until further notice “Can they score?”. I want to see Benson play with confidence, run hard at the Cowboy line so to bring Roy Williams closer to the box to open up play action. I am taking the Bears here but this is a very difficult game to analyze and I would not lay any cheddar on this one.
Pick: BEARS (-3)

SAINTS (-4) Titans: The Titans are playing with confidence against a desperate and very talented Super Bowl pick in New Orleans. The Saints are much more talented than they have shown the first two weeks, but I have never looked at them as being a Super Bowl entrant this season. I like their offense but their defense is a bit shaky and was exposed in weeks 1 and 2. The Titans go into every game with an FU attitude which resonates directly from the coach. Vince Young has leadership quality of impeccable worth on this young offense. They need to get him a reliable target soon. I see the Titans running the ball a whole lot in this game and they should keep it close until the end with a stingy defense. I hope Young has the ball in his hands with a few minutes to go, down by a couple of points.
Pick: Titans (-4)

Champion's League

My favorite annual tournament. As I documented in my EPL Preview post a while back, I think Liverpool will win the Champion's League title this year. Real Madrid will get to the semi final round, as will Roma. Roma is a team no one is really looking at with championship merit in either Seria A or in Champion's League play. Their acquisition of Giuly could be the transfer steal of the campaign and he compliments an experienced and talented side that will be in serious contention for the Seria A title as well Champion's League glory. The fourth team will be Man U or A.C. Milan.

A friend recently went to Vegas and I asked him to get these bets in for me:
Liverpool winning EPL, got the bet in at 2-1
Liverpool winning Champion's League,did not get bet in
A.S. Roma winning Seria A, did not get bet in
Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans leading the NFL in receiving yards, did not get bet in

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

Here are my thoughts on games I watched this weekend

Texans defeat Panthers: The Texans are very fast on defense. They have two playmakers on the line in Mario Williams and rookie Okoye. Dunta Robinson is a very good cover corner who played Steve Smith very tight yesterday. The two touchdowns scored in the first half by Smith were on a missed tackle for 7 yards and a 12 yarder that actually hit off of Robinson’s helmet, into the air, and then into Smith’s hands. The last TD Smith had was a short over the middle dump off where he broke about 6 Houston defenders , so that was hardly Dunta’s fault. I liked the way Houston responded to being down 14-0. In years past the game would have been over, but there is a new confidence in Houston. Houston beat the Panthers down from mid 1st quarter on from both sides of the line of scrimmage. A cause for concern is Andre Johnson going down with a knee injury. He is their playmaker and offensive leader. Any extended absence from Johnson and the Texans will be hard pressed to keep winning.


Steelers defeat Bills: The Bill defense played admirably in the 1st half and then simply were too tired in the second half. J.P. Losman had one good drive the entire game and he needs to begin playing up to his preseason hype. Marshan Lynch looked good again and ran tough. I like the call by Buffalo’s head coach to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Pitt 40 yard line on Buffalo’s first possession. They should have ran the ball with Lynch but sometimes it is the thought that counts. The Steelers seem to be a solid team but I feel they still have not been tested. The 49ers come into Pittsburgh this week off of a good road win in St. Louis.

Colts defeat Titans: Every time I felt the Colts were going to run away with the game, the Titan defense would get a big play. Tennessee plays with a lot of heart and if not for a lack of receivers, could have pulled the game out at the end. The Titans need to get Vince Young someone viable to throw to because it is a shame watching his good decisions and deft passing going to waste due to wide receiver ineptitude. The Colts are an excellent team and it seems to me that Manning and his receivers are more in tune with one another this year than they were last season. Anthony Gonzalez is a tremendous talent and seems to have learned the offense to the point where Manning is looking his way in big spots.

Bucs defeat Saints: This game was on a corner TV of the bar away from where I was so it was tough to see the game. I went over a few times but did not get a sense of how the game was flowing so I really have no comment here. In looking at the box score this morning, I see that McCallister got only 10 carries. He needs more that that for the Saints to turn their season around.

Browns defeat Bengals: This is one of the most entertaining games I have ever watched. It seemed like one of those late night drunken Madden games when both guys score at will because both guys are too inebriated to bother playing defense. I have documented in previous posts that the Browns are better team than most people think. I must admit that there was little thought in my mind that the Bengals would lose to the Browns. This game showed me that the Bengal defense needs to get a whole lot better if they want to make a deep playoff run. The defensive line play from the Bengals was abysmal. Lewis had truck lanes to run through and Anderson was never really pressured into making mistakes. It was nice to see Jamal Lewis run past the defensive backfield on his long TD run. I remember watching in amazement during the 2003 campaign how fast he was for a man his size once he got to the DB level. Braylon Edwards made three or four All Pro type catches and Kellen Winslow is a mismatch for 95% of the linebackers in the NFL. The Browns have a winnable game next week in Oakland.

49ers beat Rams: The Rams start 0-2 with both losses at home, no good. I am concerned with the numerous dropped passes I saw from the Rams yesterday. With a banged up offensive line providing little room for Stevie J to run, the receivers have to hold on to everything. I loved the call by Nolan to go for it on 4th and 1 from mid filed late in the 3rd quarter. They were down 13-7 at the time and the defense was suffocating the Rams. The end result was an impressive TD run by Gore where he broke about 5 tackles at or near the line of scrimmage. The Rams will not win many games this year without having improved offensive line play from what has transpired since Pace got hurt for the season in the second half last week. The 49ers get to see what kind of 2-0 team they are when they go to Pittsburgh next week.

Cowboys defeat Dolphins: I was at my parent’s house for dinner so I did not watch this game. I did however win $50 from a friend who for some reason thought Miami would cover the spread. Miami is really bad and will fight with KC for 1st pick in next year’s draft.

Jaguars defeat Falcons: Jerious Norwood needs to get the ball more in Atlanta. Warrick Dunn is a good RB but lacks the explosion that this offense needs to score. Harrington actually looked decent yesterday and Roddy White made some nifty catches. Atlanta was up 7-3 when they missed a short field goal that could have propelled them to victory considering the Jaguar offensive ineptitude yesterday. The Jags are a bad team and a boring team to watch. I am concerned with the Jaguar offensive line. The running game is supposed to be their strong suit on offense but they are really not doing much up front in terms of opening up running lanes. With Gerrard at helm and a cast of average receivers, the Jags need to run the ball to score and it has not happened the first two weeks.

Broncos defeat Raiders: Did not watch.

Lions defeat Vikings: Did not watch but highlights suggest Tavarious Jackson may not be the answer at QB for the Vikes.

Bears defeat Chiefs: Did not watch.

Patriots defeat Chargers: Why did Norv Turner not try running the ball with LT when they recovered the fumbled kickoff in Pat’s territory during the second half when they were down 31-14. Sack, Sack , incompletion, punt and the game was over. You could see it in LT’s face when he was coming off the field after that sequence that he was as perplexed as I was. The Patriots are in a grove right now and Moss looks incredible. Two questions the Chargers need to ask themselves is 1) Who are my corner backs, and 2) Who are my wide receivers.

Packers defeat Giants: Even though this game was on the big screen, I barely paid attention. If I stayed home for this bleeder I may have jumped out the window.

Ravens defeat Jets: I went to my parent’s house for dinner after the one o’clock games so I only caught the last 8 minutes or so. I did not see Clemens play. I did see his receivers drop three touchdown passes on the final drive though. My pick of the Jets finishing ahead of the Pats in the AFC East is looking very grim even after the 2nd week simply because the Pats look that good.

Spurs v. Gunners

Anyone just watch Tottenham piss away the game this morning. Keane looks slow and why does Jenas seem to be playing a defensive supporting midfield position rather than attack. Berbatov and Bent both had chances at the end and could not cash in. Well played Gunners, you deserve the win with an attack marked by fluid passing and timely runs. It must be nice for Arsenal fans to root for young, hungry players every game. If not for Robinson at goal, the game could have been 5-1. I feel that my choice of Tottenham finishing 3rd in the EPL is a poor one to say the least. 1 win in 7 games is relegation material and time seems to be running short on Jol's position with Spurs.

Week 2 Outlook

The spreads being used here are from the Friday New York Daily News. Home Team in CAPS.

Last Week: 6-8-2
Season: 6-8-2

GIANTS (PK) Packers : With no definitive report on Manning yet, most people will tend to side with the Packers. I am not one of these people. The Packers do have a balanced defense that will make it tough on the Giants to score, but I can not see the Packer offense doing anything this year and this week should be no exception. Dallas did burn the Giant secondary last week, but that was with an accurate Tony Romo throwing to T.O. and Jason Witten. Brett Favre has not been solid in two years and his receiving chore is less than desirable. If Manning plays this is a definite win for the Giants. Should Lorenzen start for the Giants, I would not wager on this game, but for the sake of picking I will take the Giants.
Pick -- Giants PKem

RAVENS (-10) Jets: I like that the Ravens only lost by a TD last week even though they had 6 turnovers against a top offense in the Bengals. If Baltimore coach Billick would have run McGahee a bit more last week, especially during the final drive, Baltimore could have pulled it out. Someone remind me why Billick is considered an offensive geneous? McGahee has had some great games against the Jets and the trend should continue. Mangini will have the team ready to play and I like the Jets here getting 10 points. Seems a bit much.
Pick -- Jets +10

STEELERS (-10) Bills: The Steelers were not tested last week at all. The game against Cleveland got ugly real quick. Buffalo will be more of a challenge. Coming off of a good showing against the Broncos I figure the 10 point line is due to the ineptitude of Buffalo’s offense last week. Buffalo will disrupt Rothlisberger and the Bills will show a better offense this week.
Pick – Bills +10

Bengals (-7) BROWNS: The game last week against Pittsburgh was over early so it is tough to tell exactly what Cleveland has. If Anderson struggles early expect Quinn to see some time. The Browns defense will play better than last week. Will they play well enough to win? Probably not, but they will play well enough to give the offense a chance to score and keep the game close. Expect the Browns to run Lewis A LOT this week against a weak Bengal run defense and try to get their emotional leader and playmaker, TE Kellen Winslow, involved early. I think the Browns are better than most people think this year and I can’t jump ship just yet on that thought.
Pick – BROWNS (+ 7)

Colts (-7) TITANS: I have documented how I like the way the Titans play hard and are not scared of any team, but how impressive did the Colts look against New Orleans? Is the spread too high? Maybe, but the Colts offense will outpace Tennessee, who lack firepower.
Pick – Colts (-7)


PANTHERS (-6.5) Texans: The Panther are a much more formidable opponent for the Texans than were the Chiefs last week, but I am on the Texans’ bandwagon until further notice.
Pick – Texans (+6.5)

RAMS (-3) 49ers: The loss of Orlando Pace is huge, affecting the Ram running and passing game. I like the 49er defense this year and they will give the Rams some problems. Frank Gore should be able to run against the Rams. The Rams really need this one because with a loss, they fall to 0-2 with both losses being at home.
Pick – 49ers (+ 3)

JAGS (-10) Falcons: 10 points is too much to give any Jaguars opponent. This is the worst game of the week and outside of Atlanta and Jacksonville, will be the game dropped from viewing if your bar of choice does not have enough TVs to cover all the games.
Pick – Falcons (+10)

Saints (-3) BUCS: This is a fishy line. A Super Bowl hopeful against a team few believe in. Well, I think the Bucs are better than most people think.
Pick – BUCS (+3)

LIONS (-3) Vikings: A road win regardless where is impressive in the NFL so hats off to Detroit for the win in Oakland last week. The Viking defense is solid as is their offensive line which boasts a left side of LG Hutchinson and LT McKinney. They will get lanes for Adrian Peterson to scamper through and for Tavarious Jackson to throw.
Pick – Vikings (+3)

Cowboys (-3.5) DOLPHINS: Another smelly line. Miami will be fighting KC for worst record in the AFC this season so why is the spread not 6.5-7. Regardless, if the Cowboys have Super Bowl aspirations, they need to beat up on inferior opponents like the Dolphins.Pick – Cowboys (- 3.5)

Seahawks (-3) CARDINALS: The Seahawks are my pick to win the NFC West so logic dictates that they should beat the Cards this week. However, logic sometimes makes no sense so in a wide open NFC West, I am taking the Cards here based on nothing more than wanting to see them win in a shootout at home
Pick – CARDS (+3)

BRONCOS (-10) Raiders: The Raiders gave up 36 points at home last week against the Lions. Now they go to Denver most probably with Culpepper at helm. A big spread for a division rival but Denver is the better team. This is a good candidate for a backdoor cover by the favorite.
Pick – BRONCOS (-10)

BEARS (-12) Chiefs: KC is the worst team in the NFL and I would like to see Herman Edwards lose every game this year in miserable fashion. How about a nice 27- 3 final this week.
Pick – BEARS (-12)

PATS (-3.5) Chargers: Videogate 2007 was blown way out of proportion. Every team has people trying to decipher defensive signals. Belichick had the balls to video it. Pundits were calling for more than loss of a 1st round pick next year. Why? Someone explain. This team is built around the draft and astute personnel moves, so the loss of a 1st round pick is huge for them. Dock them a second round pick as well if a first round pick is not enough, but don’t tell me that Belichick is trying to do things no other team in the NFL is doing. As for the game itself, I have the Bolts going to the Super Bowl so I will take them in this game.
Pick – Chargers (+3.5) gotta love the hook in this one.


EAGLES (-6.5) Redskins: Both teams had bad days offensively last week. The Eagles are the better team and they are at home.
Pick – EAGLES (-6.5)

NFL Week 1 Thoughts

These are my thoughts on games that I watched this weekend.

New England at Jets: I am going to take a page from Gregg Easterbrook here and tell you when I wrote “game over” in my mental notebook. First drive of the game, Jets are facing 4th and a long yard at about New England’s 40 yard line. I felt that a strong message of WE ARE HERE TO WIN could have been sent to the Patriots and more importantly to the Jets’ young O-line if Mangini went for it. He chose to punt. I looked at my buddy who was there with me, a rugby fan who had more interest in the Scotland/ Portugal match, and said that the Jet game was over. What did they have to lose? If you fail, they still need to go about 30 yards to get a field goal. The Patriots took possession at the Jet 15 or so, and proceeded to go on a 10 minute TD drive. The Patriots cruised the rest of the way.
** Gregg Easterbrook is an ESPN Page 2 columnist whose TMQ article can be read every Tuesday. I encourage you to read his articles.

Chiefs at Texans: I have documented in my AFC South Preview post that I expect good things from the Texans this season, especially from their defense. They did not disappoint. The only problem is that the opponent were the Chiefs, who will be in season long struggle to score. Carolina will be a much stronger test in Week 2.

Miami at Washington: The game was in a corner TV and was out of my view.

Denver at Buffalo: Surprisingly, this game was switched to the Yankee game for an older gentleman sitting in the corner bar area that requested it. I did not watch the game, but found out about the devastating injury to Kevin Everett. May God bless you. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

Atlanta at Minnesota: Thankfully not televised at the bar.

Philly at Green Bay: Philly was the better team. The Philly offense did not play crisply but that will change in the coming weeks. The Eagle defense was stingy all day and if not for the two muffed punt returns, the Eagles would have most likely won the game. The Packer offense was terrible and I do not see why that will change as the season wears on because there are no playmakers in Green Bay.

Pitt at Cleveland: I don’t really think the defense played that bad. The Brown defense was forced to defend a short field for most of the day. The final score was a product more of Cleveland’s offensive ineptitude, rather than porous defense. The Brady Quinn era needs to start soon because Frye looked terrible, and Anderson really did not have the body language of someone that wanted to be out there. TE Kellen Winslow came to play. I give credit to Pittsburgh for winning a game that I though they would have trouble with. I really do hope Ben Roethlisberger is fully recovered from his head injuries incurred in his motorcycle accident last year. He looked very much in control and played with the poise he exhibited his rookie year.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Jeff Fischer has this team ready to win every week and more importantly, believing that they are the better team. Vince Young is a true field general and leader, who needs to be given better people to throw to. I like watching Tennessee play because they are not afraid from the coach on down to the players. Regarding Jacksonville, I documented in my AFC South Preview how I felt about them and my opinion has not changed any.

Carolina at St. Louis: Steven Jackson is better than he showed, as is the rest of the St. Louis offense. The doubts surrounding the Ram defense were not quelled against Carolina. They were beaten at the line and in the secondary consistently, and I never got the felling that they were going to make a big stop. The Panthers played well all around , especially Delhomme and the running back tandem of Williams and Foster.

Chicago at Chargers: Did not watch most of this game, but did see that the Bear RBs put the ball on the ground too often for them to win any game.

Week 1 Outlook

Here are my picks for Week 1 of the NFL season. Weeks 1 through Week 4 are the toughest to call against the spread because no one really knows what to expect this early on. In the future I will try and give a synopsis of why I chose the winners of each individual game, but due to lack of time I will simply give the winner of each game against the spread.

Jets (+6.5), Cowboys (-6), Texans (-3), Bills (+3), Browns (+4.5), Titans (+ 7.5),
Rams (-1), Eagles (-3), Falcons (+3), Redskins (-3), Bucs (+6), Bears (+6),
Lions (+2.5), Bengals (-2.5), Cards (+3)

NFC Playoff Predictions

I see the Final 4 comprised of Philly, Dallas, Chicago and Seattle. The other two playoff teams will be New Orleans and Tampa Bay. New Orleans is a sexy pick to make it to the Super Bowl but they will not make it past the 1st round if they can not do something about their defense.

Conference Championship game:

Chicago and Philly

NFC West Preview

Predictions: All four teams will score, but which of these teams will stop other teams from scoring. The most balanced defense in this division is Seattle who made upgrades at DL and DB. They will win the division and I predict the other three teams will finish in a tie for second place.


1) Seahawks 2) 49ers, Rams and Cardinals

NFC South Preview

Carolina Panthers: This is essentially the same team as last season. Management felt that last year was simply a bad season and made no significant changes. I have questions about the offense, which looked miserable in pre-season games that I watched. Outside of Steve Smith, who will make plays? DeAngelo Williams is still unproven and DeShaun Foster has yet to become the big time running back Carolina expected when they drafted him in 2002. The defense is solid throughout and is led by an outstanding D-line. Former All Pro DT Kris Jenkins played in all 16 games last year after missing most of 2004 and 2005. Look for him to get back to Honolulu.

Atlanta Falcons. I do not see much coming out of Atlanta this year but the Falcon’s may be the ultimate test of “The Ewing Theory”. Here is a link that will explain the Ewing Theory and how it pertains to the Atlanta Falcons.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page
=simmonspreview/070906&sportCat=nfl


New Orleans Saints: The Saints have the offense to get into the playoffs, but they need to do a much better job on defense than they showed against the Colts on opening night to have a chance at getting to the Super Bowl.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A much better season is looming this year for the Bucs who suffered through a miserable 4-12 season last year. The offense will be better with an improved offensive line and new QB Jeff Garcia. The defense is much better than last year’s play indicated and will be helped by the additions of DE Kevin Carter and LB Cato June. The loss of Simeon Rice could be offset nicely by 1st round draft pick Gains Adams who will be starting by week 4.



Predictions:

1) Saints 2) Bucs 3) Panthers 4) Falcons

NFC North Preview

Chicago Bears: Grossman will be just fine this year throwing to Berrian, Muhhamad and a couple of good TEs in Desmond Clark and 1st round drafty choice Ben Olsen. My concern lies with Cedric Benson. Will he take the role of #1 RB by the cajones, lead the Bears with determination and heart, or will he falter? The Bears will make the postseason without a great running attack because of their standout defense, but as we all know, you need to run the ball to win in the playoffs. Barring injury, I see a productive year from Benson, with a 4+ yard per carry average behind a very cohesive, veteran offensive line. The defense will rank in the top 5 and is the strength of this team.

Detroit Lions: Defense wins and the Lions are not very strong there. Outside of excellent MLB Ernie Simms and possibly DT Cory Redding, nobody on defense scares offensive coordinators. Two players that need to step up are DT Shaun Rogers and OLB Boss Baily. Rogers has never fulfilled his All Pro billing and Baily is a playmaker that needs to play hard for all 16 games. Offensively, the offensive line has some depth, but nobody really stands out except for LT Jeff Backus. Jon Kitna has a great arm, weapons to throw to and an offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, that game plan to an offenses strength. Kitna and the offense will have success if two things happen; 1) Limit the INT’s and 2) get dependable RB play. Kitna said they would 10 games, I don’t believe it.

Green Bay: I’m bored of this team. Favre has been overthrowing receivers for two years now and this pre-season was no different. The defense, led by two very talented LBs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk, is solid and will help the Packers fight for a 2nd place finish in the division, but issues on offense will keep them out of the post-season.

Minnesota Vikings: The defense will be the strength of this team but not enough talent on offense to compete for the post-season. It will be fun to watch Adrian Peterson run and Tavaris Jackson use his athleticism to make some nifty plays. Every year there is a team that everyone writes off as trash, only to see that team make a ton of noise. This is the prime candidate in the NFC because only Viking fans have them finishing in the playoffs.


Predictions:

1) Bears 2) Lions 3) Packers 4) Vikings

NFL Opening Night

Saints at Colts

These are two teams with Super Bowl hopes and questions on defense. Combined with offenses that move the ball effectively, a high scoring game is probable. Seems to me that 6 points is a bit too much and I will take...

Saints with the Over.

NFC East Preview

New York Giants: The Giants will have a tough time getting to 8 wins this year. The offensive line is adequate and will give Manning time to get the ball downfield to Burress, Toomer and Shockey. Brandon Jacobs is unproven as a full time starter so it will be interesting to see his stamina as the season goes along. Big questions on defense will keep the Giants out of the playoffs. Athletic DE Justin Tuck could see some time at DT because the Giants are so weak there. Who will be playmakers behind Umenyiora and Strahan? Aside from MLB Antonio Pierce, the giants have very little behind the D-line and they will be exploited throughout the season.

Dallas Cowboys: The offensive line is an NFL elite unit that will protect an as of now overrated Romo and create running lanes for Jones and Barber. Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens are both veterans who know how to get the job done. Throw in Jason Witten and the cowboys should find the end zone often if Romo lives up to expectations. All Pro LB DeMarcus Ware and All Pro S Roy Williams anchor a very strong defense. LB depth will be a problem if Ware or ILB Akin Ayodele miss games or if OLB Gregg Ellis cannot recover from his Achilles injury in time for the start of the season. The second CB spot is a concern that will need to be remedied if the Cowboys want to make a strong playoff run. The Cowboys will be in the playoffs unless Romo flops.

Philadelphia Eagles: McNabb will play this season with a chip on his shoulder and if he stays healthy, will vie for the league MVP. I consider him a top 3 QB in the NFL. He seems to have developed a nice rapport with free agent signing Kevin Curtis. Combine that with continued maturity from Reggie Brown, the play of always-reliable Brian Westbrook, and an excellent offensive line , the Eagles only question on offense will center on player health. Defensively, the Eagles are thin and inexperienced at LB. Takeo Spikes was a steal for the Eagles if he is fully recovered from a torn Achilles. Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson have faith in unproven MLB Omar Gaither and OLB Chris Gocong to fill in the LB spots next to Spikes. The secondary ranks in the top five and is the strength of the defense. The Eagles defensive line has to make strides this year, especially at DT, for the Eagles to make a Super Bowl run. A healthy Javon Kearse will help Trent Cole have a breakout year and the Eagles hope that 2006 1st round pick DT Brodrick Bunkley improves on a sup-par season a year ago.

Washington Redskins: The big question here is at QB. Jason Campbell is in a watershed year with the Redskins. He either produces or they will find someone else next year, possible sooner. The ability is there and the above average offensive line will protect him, so it will be fun to watch and see how he produces as a clear-cut #1 starter for the Redskins. A healthy Clinton Portis, along with rugged Ladell Betts form a great tandem at RB and should produce behind a solid O-Line. Defensively, the questions start at the D-line. They are all about average and the Redskins are looking for a play maker to emerge. The LBs are solid. The second CB spot behind Shawn Springs is also a question. It will be between free agent signings Fred Smoot, David Maklin and 2005 1st round draft choice Carlos Rogers. I would like to see Rogers get it and perform well.

Predictions: The Eagles and Cowboys will fight it out for the NFC East title, but both teams are quality enough to make it into the playoffs. Given the Redskin offensive line and solid defense, a productive Jason Campbell will give Washington good feelings about next year. I say they finish tied with the Giants for 3rd place this year.

1) Eagles 2) Cowboys 3) Redskins 3) Giants

AFC Final 4 and Super Bowl Representative

The AFC final four will be comprised of the Colts, Bengals, Chargers and Ravens. The other two teams in the playoffs will be the Jets and Patriots.

San Diego will go on to the Super Bowl

AFC West preview

Denver Broncos: Will Jay Cutler perform well? Will Travis Henry become the 1600 yard back most expect him to be? These are the two main questions with the Broncos this year. Cutler will play well but I am not so sure that the offensive line is strong enough this year to propel Henry to a lofty yardage plateau. The right side especially is a concern and no matter how effective the blocking schemes are, you need the personnel to execute. The addition of Dre’ Bly is a response to the tragic death of Darrent Williams. Bly is an accomplished veteran and will help the defense. The biggest concern defensively is the defensive line. The loss of Ekuban to a torn achilles is huge. The most accomplished player on the D-line is Sam Adams, a 34 year old run stopper who is too big to be out there on every play. Ian Gold and D.J. Williams are solid linebackers and will help against the run, but the Broncos will have a tough time stopping the run and need to make upgrades there if they are to win if they make it to the post season. S John Lynch is past his prime and will be a liability in pass coverage. They will finish 2nd in the division, but a playoff spot is certainly not guaranteed.

Kansas City Chiefs: Led by the most overrated coach in the NFL, Herm Edwards, the Chiefs will find winning 6 games difficult this year. Brian Waters and Casey Weigman lead an offensive line that two years ago was tops in the NFL, but now are a second tier group at best. Larry Johnson is awesome, but needs room to run the line needs to get better in a hurry for that to happen. Damon Huard is a decent backup QB, but the Chiefs are asking a lot if they want him to produce the way he did last year behind this O-line and throwing to a receivers who are either past their prime, or never had one. Huard should look for Tony Gonzalez and hope all goes well. The defense is solid, but in no area do they excel. Look for DE Tamba Hall to have an excellent season. Donnie Edwards leads the linebackers, the strength of the defense. Edwards is extremely athletic and could fit into any defensive scheme. Ty Law and Patrick Surtain are the CBs. The chiefs hope to get one more good year from the both of them. The defense will keep the Chiefs in games, but they lack any offense or coaching that scares anyone.

Oakland Raiders: This team is coming off a 2 win season and are coached by a 32 year old with ZERO coaching experience in the NFL. Good luck with that. The O-line is awful, which will plague the skill position players’ productivity. Cullpepper should be the starter and he could have fun throwing the ball to Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter, two players everyone is waiting for to reach their potential. LaMont Jordan is a good running back on a bad team and I feel sorry for him because he is talented. His full potential will never be seen as a Raider. The Raider defense has two perennial All Pro candidates that the casual fan may never hear about; DE Dderrick Burgess and CB Nnamdi Asomugha should be the cornerstones of the defense for the next few years. Kirk Morrison is a solid MLB who led the team in tackles last year and is poised for a breakout year.


San Diego Chargers: I am not going to spend a lot of time here. The Chargers are the most complete team in the AFC and are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Two concerns I have are these: 1) Will Vincent Jackson step into the #1 receiver spot the way the Chargers are counting on? 2) Is the secondary good enough to cover elite WRs that will be testing them in the playoffs?

Predictions:

1) Chargers 2) Broncos 3) Chiefs 4) Raiders

AFC South Preview

Houston Texans: Offensive production, or lack there of, for all teams begins with the offensive line. A team can have marquee names at the skill positions, but the O-line is what makes it all click. Bringing in Matt Schaub and Ahman Green means nothing if the Texan line does not improve from a sub-par 2006. The Texans did little to upgrade the line in hopes that the players from last year gel and grow from being together last year. They signed Jordan Black away from KC and drafted Brandon Frye in the 5th round. Frye will probably start the year as a reserve while Black could push for a spot. Ahman Green had a decent year for a bad Green Bay team last year, getting 1400 total yards from scrimmage. He brings a sense of leadership and competitiveness that has been lacking in Houston and in the games I have seen so far, seems to be running very well. Of course, there is always Ron Dayne as back up. Matt Schaub hopes to be a better leader than David Carr. Although you can not put all the blame on David Carr for his lack of better production in Houston, it was time to move on. Schaub has a true #1 receiver in Andre Johnson. If I was asked to name the 5 receivers I want on my team, it would be hard pressed for me not to put Andre Johnson on that list. 3rd round pick Jacoby Jones has dazzled in the pre-season as a return man and could also find some time as the Texan’s #2 receiver, offering some downfield help and big play capability. Defensively, the Texans are going to surprise a lot of people. 1st round pick Amobi Okoye is extremely quick at the point of attack , has a relentless motor and will be able to help Mario Williams have a season worthy of his #1 overall selection by the Texans last year. Jason Babin is having a tremendous pre season and will certainly see a lot of playing time. The LBs are led by last year’s defensive rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans. Marlon Greenwood looks to build on an excellent 2nd half of 2006 while Shawn Barber and Danny Clark were brought in to add depth at LB. The Texans secondary has not changed from last year except for the addition of Jamar Fletcher, who will fight for the second corner spot opposite Dunta Robinson, but will most likely start the season as a nickel back. I expect a much better Texan team this year and will not be surprised with a 9 win season.

Indianapolis Colts: Pro Bowl LT Tarik Glenn has retired and finding an equal replacement is not going to happen. Second round pick Tony Ugoh will start at Lt and will learn on the job as the season progresses. The rest of a top tier O-LINE stays the same, led by TMQ MVP, C Jeff Saturday. We all know about the Manning to Harrison/Wayne and new guy Anthony Gonzalez air attack, so I will delve a bit into Joseph Addai. The big question with any newly minted full time back is endurance over the 16 to 21 game schedule. Addai is very gifted runner and pass catcher, but without a proven backup, the Colts absolutely need Addai to stay healthy and be effective the whole season. The Colts will win the division with or without Addai, but come playoff time, a running game is crucial to winning. No way do the Colts win the Super Bowl last year without the ground game provided by Addai and the departed Rhodes. There is concern on the defensive side of the ball. The losses of CBs Jason David and Nick Harper, S Mike Doss, along with nagging injuries to S Bob Sanders, will have the Colts thin in the secondary. Underappreciated LB Cato June walked to Tampa Bay and DT Monte Reagor left for Philly. Dungy is going to have a tough time finding adequate replacements for all the lost personal. If the defense can gel and form a cohesive unit like the past few years, of course the Colts have a shot at the Super Bowl given their ability to score. However, a divisional round playoff loss to a more balanced team looms if the D can not compliment a standout offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars: I have rooted for the Jags a while now and have year after year tried convincing my friends of their impending Super Bowl entry. However, I just get the feeling it will never happen. My thoughts drift to the Seahawks of the 80’s when I would hear the hype as to why this would be their year, look at them, and then just think, naaa. Well, that is how I feel about this team. Great defense, sure, especially against the run. An offense that can run the ball, but there is something missing. Is it the coach, the QB, I really do not know. I’m just not feeling them this year.

Tennessee Titans: LenDale White should be given the starting job ahead of Chris Brown and rookie Chris Henry. The bigger concern is who will catch Vince Young passes this year. Brandon Jones was the penciled in #1 pre-season, has some chemistry with Young, but is unproven and injuries have hampered him during his short career. Eric Moulds may be the #2 receiver opening weekend, but his best years are way behind him. The O-line returns all five starters. They look to build on an excellent 2nd half last year and should be the strength of the offense this year. Kieth Bullock leads an improving defensive unit that can keep the Titans in a playoff push this year. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, a relentless pass rusher and DT Albert Haynesworth set the tone on the D-Line. The loss of their best cover corner, Pacman Jones, to suspension was off set nicely by the addition of Nick Harper. Harper will be asked to switch from a Cover 2 defense to more traditional man to man sets. The other CB spot will be contested between Reynaldo Hill and rookie 1st round pick Michael Griffin. Grtiffen was a FS at Texas but the Texans may move him to corner. Jeff Fisher is an excellent head coach and will get the most from his team.


Predictions: Barring injury to multiple players, the Colts will win the division. The fight for second will be an eye-opener because I do not think Jacksonville will be in the mix. Houston and Tennessee are ready to make strides this year.

1) Colts 2) Texans 3) Titans 4) Jaguars