NFL Week 4 Picks

Lines courtesy of Friday’s New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last Week 8 – 5 – 3
Season 23- 20- 5

Jets (-3.5) BILLS: The Jets are the better team from top to bottom and should get the win. Jones is running with purpose behind a getting better by the week Jet offensive line. The Bills will be without MLB Paul Posluszny making it a bit easier to establish the run/ play action Jet offense. Marshawn Lynch is a tough tailback, but outside of him the Bills have established little on offense this season and go into this game with Edwards as QB. I think the Jets are a playoff team his year, so a win against a weaker opponent, even though it is a rivalry road game, is mandatory at 1-2.
Pick: Jets (-3.5)

Eagles (-3) GIANTS: Eagles offensive line vs. Giant front 7 should go the Eagles way, allowing for Westbrook to run between the tackles. McNabb is getting better each week as he gets back into game rhythm after last season was cut short by the ACL tear. Giants will be wary of play action so to minimize the big play downfield to Kevin Curtis, which worked to perfection against the Lion’s last week more than a couple times. The Eagles should move the ball and score a few TDs. The Giant offense is playing well behind a so far very solid O-line. Ward is running hard and Manning seems more poised this year than the last few. The Eagles will most likely be without Lito Shepard so Sheldon Brown will be covering a hurting, but very dangerous Plaxico Burress. I think the Eagles are the better team and will win in a divisional game that always seems to entertain.
Pick: Eagles(-3)

DOLPHINS (-4) Raiders: The Dolphins would be best served if they traded away a few of their remaining assets to get some draft picks. Jason Taylor would be welcomed addition on a contending team such as Dallas. Chris Chambers is the stud WR that Philly or Tennessee could use. For the game against the Raiders, I see Oakland winning the game on a last second FG by Janikowski, 10-9. You know how when golfing, one carries the beer with them, laying the can on the ground before shooting and then picking up the beer after the shot? Well, it would be infinitely entertaining if Janikowski came out for every FG with a beer in his hand, layed it down a few yards behind him, kicked the FG, then picked up the can and took a big slug. If allowed this method, I guarantee his kick percentage goes up to about 92.
Pick: Raiders (+4)

Texans (-3) FALCONS: In the brief Texan history, is this the first time they are road favorites? The Texans are playing very well defensively and will need to continue that trend in order to win because of injuries that have taken a toll on their depth. They will most likely be without WRs Andre Johnson and rookie Jacoby Jones. RB Ahman Green is doubtful. Atlanta seemed to get some semblance of offensive rhythm last week. Roddy White is a playmaker and I still feel they need to make Jerious Norewood the featured back. This is a game that Bobby Patrino needs to show the Atlanta fan base his quality as a head coach and have his team prepared for a tough Texan team.
Pick: Atlanta (+3)

Ravens (-4.5) BROWNS: Is Romeo Crennel a solid NFL head coach? I am really not sure, but I know that this is a game that he must have the Browns hyped up for. Crennel, a highly touted defensive coordinator for the Patriots before getting the HC job in Cleveland, has to get better production from his run defense in order to win. Kamerion Wimbley is a beast at LB, a solid playmaker on defense. The offense, which has moved the ball well the past two weeks, gets to show some mettle this week. If Winslow plays, I think the Browns move the ball again this week. He is such a mismatch for LBs, even the ones on Baltimore, and is the guy most needed in the Brown offense for them to be effective. Lewis is running hard behind an effective O-line and I bet he can’t wait to get a crack at his old team. Cleveland is playing with confidence and should be riding a two game winning streak.
Pick: Browns (+4.5)

Bears (-3) LIONS: The Bears will come into this game very banged up on defense. Vasher and Tillman are both doubtful with Lance Briggs and Tommy Harris nursing injuries. The Bears go as far as their defense will take them so these injuries are very concerning. Brian Griese needed to get a chance as starter. It may not have been all Grossman’s fault for the offensive ineptitude displayed the first 3 weeks, but a change in energy and decision making was needed. The Lions have an offense that can score in bunches and with a depleted Bear defense, will put up 20+ points. Kitna has proven himself, from his time in Cincinnati and now Detroit, as a skilled passer with a toughness to go with it.
Pick: Lions (+3)

Packers (-1.5) VIKINGS: I have been throwing darts at the Pack since the start of the season and they have thus far proved me very wrong. I do not feel that they are an elite team in the NFC and will wait for them to falter so I can say “Told you so”, but until then I am going to ride their wave.
Pick: Packers (-1.5)

COWBOYS (-13) Rams: Brian Leonard is as good or better than Steven Jackson as a receiver and a blocker. I would like to see the Rams go to an all out air attack to test a Cowboy secondary that has yet to prove they are any good. Problem is that the Rams have serious issues with the O-line and Bulger is playing with sore/broken ribs. Another problem is that the Ram defense is playing worse than their offense and are going up against a Dallas offense that is playing extremely well. Too many question marks for the Rams and the Boys are at home.
Pick: Cowboys (-13)

PANTHERS (-3) Buccaneers: I have documented in my preseason posts that I see a playoff spot for the Bucs this season. They are playing well on both sides of the ball and Gruden seems to have the confidence of his players. Carolina was fortunate last week to get DeAngelo Hall riled up enough to where he blew the game for Atlanta, handing Carolina the victory. Delhomme is unsure if he will play.
Pick: Buccaneers (+3)

Seahawks (-2) 49ERS: This is game that I really don’t know how to analyze and would certainly not bet, so I will ask a question instead. Why is football the only major sport where fan allegiance falls outside of the local teams? Let me explain. I live and have lived in NYC my whole life so I can only speak of my experience here, dealing with people that have grown up here. Immigrants to NYC from other cities in the US are not part of my question. All of my friends, and I would say most native New Yorkers like either the Mets or Yankees in baseball, the Knicks in basketball and either the Rangers or Islanders in hockey, but when it comes to football, allegiances run from coast to coast. Sure there are a lot of Jet and Giant fans, but the proportion of non Jet/ Giant fans is greater than one would imagine. Is this a nationwide phenomena? Do Miami natives root for Dallas and vice versa? How about in the New England area. Are there non Patriot fans? Somebody get on this and let me know.
Pick: 49ers (+2)

Steelers (-6) CARDINALS: The argument that Arizona has a great chance because Whissenhunt and Grimm know the Steelers better than their current coaches is bogus. The Steelers are playing excellent football and to beat them, Arizona needs to play equally excellent football. I will concede that Whisenhunt may help the Cardinals with Steeler player strengths and weaknesses, but that is it. The reason I am picking the Cardinals here is because strange things happen in the desert, Hines Ward is hurt and I kind of like the two QB system that Arizona is starting to employ. TMQ columnist Gregg Easterbrook, a guy you all should read, asked last week what will be the new offensive fad in football, the NFL in particular? The two QB system may be it.
Pick: Cardinals (+6)

CHARGERS (-11.5) Chiefs: If I was getting paid for my analysis and picks, I would spend time on this one and really delve into whether or not the Chiefs will cover. Since I am not, and have an incredible disdain for Herm Edwards, and because the Chargers are my pick as AFC champ, I am taking the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers (-11.5)

COLTS (-9.5) Broncos: This is a lousy spread, but given the Bronco lackluster play and the Colts being at home, a deserved one. I am taking the Colts based on their need to explode offensively every once in a while and this seems like a good time, at home against a reeling opponent.
Pick: Colts (-9.5)

Patriots (-7) BENGALS: Not having Rudi Johnson is a huge blow for the Bengals. Kenny Watson is serviceable, but nowhere near the quality of Rudi Johnson. Can the Bengals move the ball without Rudi. I think they can but to what extent? With Cincinnati’s defense playing as poorly as they are, how many points do the Bengals have to score to win- 25, 30, 35? Does a 30-27 Bengal win seem feasible? I read that a tactic Cincinnati may employ is a 4 down lineman, 2 LB, 5 DB defense to try and force the Pats to run. You know what, if the Bengals do go with that defense, the Pats will run on the up-until-now- horrid Bengal defense. Every time I want to write down Bengals as my pick, I get a knot in my stomach. I think my sub-conscience wants the Pats to lose, but my brain is telling me that there is no way the Bengals stop Brady and company this week. I really don’t want to do it, but..
Pick: Patriots (-7)