NFL Week 5 Picks

Spreads curtesey of the Friday edition of the New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last Week 10– 4 – 0
Season 33 – 24 – 5


GIANTS (-3.5) Jets: The Giant defense is led by their pass rush and I do not see them having as great of a day as last week against the Eagles. **Note to Andy Reid—how about having the RB chip the ends last week, or better yet, why not keep calling runs, you were getting 5 yards a clip. Brutal play- calling almost got your QB killed.** The Jets will run the ball and get some plays downfield against the weak LB and secondary units the Giants present. The Giants get Brandon Jacobs back this week and I do see the Giants moving the ball. Manning is good for 1 bonehead play a game and it should happen again this weekend. I think the Jets are the better team top to bottom. This is the week Mangini has to get the Jets ready because a loss will cast serious doubts on a post-season appearance.
Pick: Jets (+3.5)

SAINTS (-3) Panthers: The by week offers time for healing, but if you are not careful, complacency could creep in. That should not happen here with the Saints. Home and desperate for a win, I expect N.O. to come out and play with heart. Breeze is better than he has shown and you expect someone touted as a leader of the team to be ready when this game starts. I hope Payton sat down with Reggie Bush and told him to hit the hole hard and don’t stop running until paydirt. Bush is a phenomenal athlete, as we all know, but needs to run with toughness between the tackles, rather than rely on stretching plays to the outside. What scares me against picking N.O. is their rush defense. John Fox has no problems running the ball 45 times if it works, with or without Jake Delhomme. Still, to much is riding on this game for New Orleans and I do not feel that Carolina is all that good.
Pick: Saints(-3)

Jaguars (-2) CHIEFS: Ugly game. What did the Chiefs prove last week? They won’t give up on a game and L.J. is still a beast. I really do not like Herm Edwards and no longer root for the Jaguars. I am rooting for a 0-0 tie.
Pick: Chiefs (+2)

REDSKINS (-3.5) Lions: This is a smelly spread. The Lions should be able to move the ball on Washington. Kevin Jones is back in the lineup. I have always liked Kevin Jones. A tough runner, good blocker and excellent out of the backfield, he adds a bit more punch to an already good offense. Calvin Johnson is looking like he will play as well, more weapons for Martz and Kitna to work with. The Redskins have had trouble scoring this season. Will that change against the Lions? They should be able to score but I do not see them staying score for score against the Lions. Gibbs will try and limit Lion offensive sets, so expect a lot of Portis- if healthy- and Ladelle Betts.
Pick: Lions(+3.5)

TITANS (-8.5) Falcons: This is another fishy line. I guess odds makers figure Atlanta is not as good as they have shown the past few weeks. Patrino seems to have the Falcons playing hard every week and the offense has been in rhythm the past few weeks. Jerious Norewood needs more touches on offense. DeAngelo Hall will be back for the entire game. There will be no by-week let down from the Titans. Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league and there is no doubt the Titans will be ready. I like the Titans to win, but 8 points seems a bit too much against a Falcon team playing solid football right now.
Pick: Falcons(+8.5)

TEXANS (-5) Dolphins: The Texan offense is simply not the same without Andre Johnson. Can they win without him? Yes, but everyone else needs to be healthy. Ahman Green returned to practice and is necessary for the ground game. WR’s Jacoby Jones and Jerome Mathis will probably miss this week. Andre Davis is serviceable, had a good week last week, and is now the Texan #1 WR. I do not know how good that sounds. Miami, as I have stated numerous times, will be in the competition for #1 overall pick in next years draft. However, with all the injuries the Texans have to deal with on offense, this may be a game Miami could win. Nahhhh, Take the Texans because Miami is bad. They made Culpepper look like Steve Young and Justin Fargus like Marcus Allen.
Pick: Texans(-5)


STEELERS (-6) Seahawks: The Seahawk defense has looked good the past few weeks. Julian Peterson is playing at an All –Pro level, and the LBs and secondary are playing at a high level. Matt Hasselbeck is finding a rhythm with his targets. I am a bit concerned with Shaun Alexander. I have watched him play three games this year and he seems to be running a bit tentative, kinda like he is trying to avoid getting hit. This needs to change soon. The Seahawks have a chance to make some real noise this season in a wide open NFC. The defense is holding up their end of the deal, but to go far, Seattle needs Alexander to be a horse. I am still not sold on Pittsburgh and this is a well balanced Seattle team.
Pick: Seahawks(+6)

PATRIOTS (-16.5) Browns: The Browns have some playmakers on offense and they should score about 20 points. How many will the Patriots score? The Browns were fortunate last week that the “offensive genius”, Brian Billick, lost his running play side of the playbook every time the Ravens were in Brown territory. The Pats know how to score in the red zone and will do so in this game. Does it even matter whom the Pats are playing at this point, or what the spread is anyway? True Story, I had a dream the other night, I pass by a TV in a room foreign to me, and the score of this game was on the TV as I walked by it. 4th Quarter, Browns 13 Pats 7.
Pick: Pats (-16.5)

Cardinals (-3.5) RAMS: The Rams are in trouble this year. An injury depleted O-line equals no offense in the NFL. The Cards are playing with spirit and will move the ball on a bad Ram defense. Is there anything good to say about the Rams at this point?
Pick: Cards (-3.5)

COLTS (-9.5) Bucs: This is one of the games I left for Friday, after the injury reports came in. I was leaning the Bucs way the entire week ; with the news that Marvin, Addai, Sanders and a very underrated Rob Morris are likely to miss this game, I need to lean with my sleeper NFC playoff pick.
Pick: Bucs (+9.5)

BRONCOS (-1) Chargers: O.K. Seriously. Is Norv Turner really that bad of a head coach? Losing to the Chiefs last week was downright atrocious. Travis Henry may not play because of his knee/ positive marijuana test. The Chargers are the more talented team and they better win this game.
Pick: Chargers(+1)

Ravens (-3.5) 49ERS: Trent Dilfer has won a Super Bowl. Weird right. I remember watching the Baltimore games that year and always taking the over. The line would be 33 at times and the game would still go under. Trent Dilfer looked uncomfortable last week against Seattle. You do not expect that from a veteran. It will help to get a full week of practice with the first team. Frank Gore is better than his numbers indicate. What does one make of the Ravens at this point? Someone still needs to explain why Billick is considered a stout offensive mind. Kyle Boller is warming up in bullpen if McNair struggles this week. I would stay very far away from this game if I were actually betting, but for the sake of statistics, I need to pick someone here. I have to give the Ravens the edge with a defense that needs to come out and dominate a game for the first time this year.
Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

PACKERS (-3) Bears: Ride the wave until it breaks.
Pick: Packers (-3)

Cowboys (-10) BILLS: The Cowboys got LB/DL Gregg Ellis and CB Terrence Newman back last week. They will both help a Cowboy defense that has yet to play well against a good offensive team. The Giants lit them up opening week, then played Miami, Chicago and St. Louis, all bad offenses when they played. Buffalo has a decent offensive line that is opening holes for a very tough Marshawn Lynch. At QB, Trent Edwards looked in total control of the offense for Buffalo last week against the Jets. He made the right reads and had a lot of poise. What happens on the Monday Night Football stage? The biggest question is whether or not the Bills can contain the Dallas offense. The Bills are a tough team and always seem to play well at home, but the Dallas offense is really clicking right now. I see Marion Barber running one in with about 6 minutes to go for a Dallas 24-13 win.
Pick: Dallas (-10)