DALLAS (-7) Packers: Still do not trust the Dallas defense. Packers will spread the field and take advantage of the weak Cowboy secondary. It would be wise for the Packers to stick with a pass first mentality and not try to establish the run to keep the Dallas offense off the field. To change offensive strategy will only get the Packers into trouble. The Cowboys have an offense that can feature the run or pass, but the Packer defense matches up well with the Cowboy play-makers, especially at LB vs. Jason Whitten and Julius Jones/Marion Barber.
Pick: Packers (+7)
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
NFL Week 12 Notes
Some thoughts from a few of the games I watched this weekend.
49ers defeat Cardinals: Frank Gore played a tremendous game considering it looked over after what appeared to be a bad ankle injury in the first half. Juking, slashing and then running over people, all those watching this young man were treated to his enormous talent. Arizona coach Ken Whizenhunt made a call with 10 minutes to go in the game that I was not to fond of. Trailing by 3, 4th and 1 from the Niner 2, Whizenhunt went for the TD rather than the tying FG. Sure, if you do not get it you pin the Niners deep and odds are that you will get the ball back with good field position, but there is no guarantee that the Niners, who have been moving the ball the entire game, would not drive the field and put up some more points. The FG was the correct call but the TD succeeded giving Zona a temporary lead. I am also critical of Arizona’s play calling after San Fran punted in OT to give the Cards the ball at the 3 yard line. Warner is not mobile at all so he will not be able to escape any rush. Why not run the ball on 1st down in hopes of picking up some yards and breathing room? Arizona was averaging 4 yards a carry at this point. Warner should also know better in this spot. A veteran QB must feel the rush and get rid of the ball to avoid the safety/fumble. He looked lost on the final play of the game.
Browns defeat Texans: The biggest play of this game was the Owen Daniels fumble after the catch with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd Q. Daniels had the 1st down but did not see a defender behind him who hit the football out of his grasp. It would have been 1st and 10 at the Cleveland 22 with Houston trailing by 7. After the fumble, Jamal Lewis took over and won the game. It took the Texan defense 3 or 4 players to get him down on every touch. Jamal Lewis is only 29 years old and looks to have a lot left in the tank. Derrick Anderson was spot on with almost all of his passes. If not for a few drops, the Browns would have won by a larger margin. Kellen Winslow is a mismatch for a LB or a CB. The Browns have a real shot at winning in the playoffs if the defense plays the way they did against Houston. Houston is likely out of the playoff picture. For the first time this season, Matt Schaub looked nervous and Andre Johnson was a non-factor.
Patriots defeat Eagles: A very entertaining game. Brady looked fantastic again, winning the game by taking what the defense gave him. Feeley played well. People will knock him for throwing the INT with 4 minutes to go. It was a bad pass, yes, but the play should have not happened. 4 minutes to go, 2nd and 4 from the NE 29, run the ball. Andy Reid, you have a standout RB with Westbrook and a very good O-line, run the ball here. People will say that the Eagles gave the rest of the league a blueprint for beating the Patriots. Give me a break. The Eagles made great plays on offense, sure, and have an All-Pro secondary, but let me ask you this. If you watched the game, was there a point at which you felt the Eagles had a real shot at winning? Do you think Brady and company would have put themselves in a position to win if the Eagles’ tied or took the lead on their penultimate drive? The Patriots are a team that will not lose unless the other team plays the perfect game and has the talent on both sides of the ball to execute the perfect game. Who in the NFL matches that description?
Vikings defeat Giants: I always assume 1 Manning bone-headed INT, but this was ridiculous. He looked confused and most of his passes were off the back foot, a sign of intimidation. The Giants better win this week or their season will meet Mr. Hanky for some Christmas cheer. Minnesota is back in the playoff hunt, congratulations. I still say that they should rest Peterson until next season. Chester Taylor is a very capable RB.
Raiders defeat Chiefs: By now, most people know of Herm Edward’s decision to go for the 1st down on 4th and 1, when the Chiefs were down by 3, at the Raider 23 yard line. What is this guy doing? How do you not kick the 40 yard FG to tie the game? The only reason to not kick the FG is if your kicker is hurt, which was not the case here. Gregg Easterbrook, a columnist who contributes to ESPN Page 2 every week in his very well written and researched Tuesday Morning Quarterback, called Herm Edwards going for it “a smart, high-percentage decision”. Agreed, it was high percentage. One yard after you already have over 150 on the ground should be attainable. The execution and lack of a play action pass threat contributed to the Chiefs not getting the 1st down. Calling it smart is debatable. Even an average NFL kicker should be able to make a 40 yard FG on a consistent basis. Tie the game up and rely on your defense against an offense led by the never clutch Dante Cullpepper. Please, Coach Kiffen, get Jamarcus Russel some playing time before the season is over.
Tampa Bay defeats Washington: Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level so any extended time missed will be detrimental to Tampa’s playoff push. Washington has a real gem in Jason Campbell. He made some rookie mistakes again this game, but the talent is obvious. I really like the way he stands tall in the pocket, almost never looking rattled.
Seattle beats St. Louis: Just when you think Frerrotte could actually win a game, 1st and goal from the Seattle 6, he reminds us why he is a back-up. The 1st down pass to Bruce that hit him in the ankles after hitting the ground was atrocious. The 4th down fumbled snap was inexcusable. Steven Jackson looked healthy. Seattle was not very impressive, but won another game, moving them closer to the division title.
San Diego defeats Baltimore: San Diego beat up on a Baltimore team that is playing an extremely poor level of football in every facet of the game. Billick should give McGahee the ball 25 times a game, but for some reason believes that Kyle Boller can run the 4 and 5 wide out-shotgun sets. Let me be offensive coordinator for either one of these teams. I guarantee better results than they are getting now.
49ers defeat Cardinals: Frank Gore played a tremendous game considering it looked over after what appeared to be a bad ankle injury in the first half. Juking, slashing and then running over people, all those watching this young man were treated to his enormous talent. Arizona coach Ken Whizenhunt made a call with 10 minutes to go in the game that I was not to fond of. Trailing by 3, 4th and 1 from the Niner 2, Whizenhunt went for the TD rather than the tying FG. Sure, if you do not get it you pin the Niners deep and odds are that you will get the ball back with good field position, but there is no guarantee that the Niners, who have been moving the ball the entire game, would not drive the field and put up some more points. The FG was the correct call but the TD succeeded giving Zona a temporary lead. I am also critical of Arizona’s play calling after San Fran punted in OT to give the Cards the ball at the 3 yard line. Warner is not mobile at all so he will not be able to escape any rush. Why not run the ball on 1st down in hopes of picking up some yards and breathing room? Arizona was averaging 4 yards a carry at this point. Warner should also know better in this spot. A veteran QB must feel the rush and get rid of the ball to avoid the safety/fumble. He looked lost on the final play of the game.
Browns defeat Texans: The biggest play of this game was the Owen Daniels fumble after the catch with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd Q. Daniels had the 1st down but did not see a defender behind him who hit the football out of his grasp. It would have been 1st and 10 at the Cleveland 22 with Houston trailing by 7. After the fumble, Jamal Lewis took over and won the game. It took the Texan defense 3 or 4 players to get him down on every touch. Jamal Lewis is only 29 years old and looks to have a lot left in the tank. Derrick Anderson was spot on with almost all of his passes. If not for a few drops, the Browns would have won by a larger margin. Kellen Winslow is a mismatch for a LB or a CB. The Browns have a real shot at winning in the playoffs if the defense plays the way they did against Houston. Houston is likely out of the playoff picture. For the first time this season, Matt Schaub looked nervous and Andre Johnson was a non-factor.
Patriots defeat Eagles: A very entertaining game. Brady looked fantastic again, winning the game by taking what the defense gave him. Feeley played well. People will knock him for throwing the INT with 4 minutes to go. It was a bad pass, yes, but the play should have not happened. 4 minutes to go, 2nd and 4 from the NE 29, run the ball. Andy Reid, you have a standout RB with Westbrook and a very good O-line, run the ball here. People will say that the Eagles gave the rest of the league a blueprint for beating the Patriots. Give me a break. The Eagles made great plays on offense, sure, and have an All-Pro secondary, but let me ask you this. If you watched the game, was there a point at which you felt the Eagles had a real shot at winning? Do you think Brady and company would have put themselves in a position to win if the Eagles’ tied or took the lead on their penultimate drive? The Patriots are a team that will not lose unless the other team plays the perfect game and has the talent on both sides of the ball to execute the perfect game. Who in the NFL matches that description?
Vikings defeat Giants: I always assume 1 Manning bone-headed INT, but this was ridiculous. He looked confused and most of his passes were off the back foot, a sign of intimidation. The Giants better win this week or their season will meet Mr. Hanky for some Christmas cheer. Minnesota is back in the playoff hunt, congratulations. I still say that they should rest Peterson until next season. Chester Taylor is a very capable RB.
Raiders defeat Chiefs: By now, most people know of Herm Edward’s decision to go for the 1st down on 4th and 1, when the Chiefs were down by 3, at the Raider 23 yard line. What is this guy doing? How do you not kick the 40 yard FG to tie the game? The only reason to not kick the FG is if your kicker is hurt, which was not the case here. Gregg Easterbrook, a columnist who contributes to ESPN Page 2 every week in his very well written and researched Tuesday Morning Quarterback, called Herm Edwards going for it “a smart, high-percentage decision”. Agreed, it was high percentage. One yard after you already have over 150 on the ground should be attainable. The execution and lack of a play action pass threat contributed to the Chiefs not getting the 1st down. Calling it smart is debatable. Even an average NFL kicker should be able to make a 40 yard FG on a consistent basis. Tie the game up and rely on your defense against an offense led by the never clutch Dante Cullpepper. Please, Coach Kiffen, get Jamarcus Russel some playing time before the season is over.
Tampa Bay defeats Washington: Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level so any extended time missed will be detrimental to Tampa’s playoff push. Washington has a real gem in Jason Campbell. He made some rookie mistakes again this game, but the talent is obvious. I really like the way he stands tall in the pocket, almost never looking rattled.
Seattle beats St. Louis: Just when you think Frerrotte could actually win a game, 1st and goal from the Seattle 6, he reminds us why he is a back-up. The 1st down pass to Bruce that hit him in the ankles after hitting the ground was atrocious. The 4th down fumbled snap was inexcusable. Steven Jackson looked healthy. Seattle was not very impressive, but won another game, moving them closer to the division title.
San Diego defeats Baltimore: San Diego beat up on a Baltimore team that is playing an extremely poor level of football in every facet of the game. Billick should give McGahee the ball 25 times a game, but for some reason believes that Kyle Boller can run the 4 and 5 wide out-shotgun sets. Let me be offensive coordinator for either one of these teams. I guarantee better results than they are getting now.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
NFL Week 12 Picks
Thanksgiving 1 – 2 – 0
Season 77 – 77 – 9
Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Daily News. HOME team in CAPS.
GIANTS (-7) Vikings: There is a chance Adrian Peterson will play this weekend. Why? Save this young man from further complications to his knee, sit him for the year, go find a few WRs and DBs and come back next year ready to make a run at the playoffs. A lot of injuries on the Giant side. The Vikings will continue to run the ball and they will do enough on defense to keep it close. Vikings win this outright if Manning can not throw in what will be a cold and windy day.
Pick: Vikings (+7)
BEARS (-1.5) Broncos: Both teams are disappointments so far, but I like Denver for a few reasons. Javon Walker is going to play. The Bears are still hurting on defense. Wheel of quarterback is spinning again in Chicago with Grossman back at helm. The Bronco defense is getting better as the season goes on and Denver has played consistently well the past few weeks.
Pick: Broncos (+1.5)
Titans (-1.5) BENGALS: Do not trust either team at this point, but Tennessee has a better coach, a solid running game and a better defense.
Pick: Titans (-1.5)
JAGUARS (-8) Bills: Dick Juron has the Bills playing solid football this season, a credit to him for motivating and the players for playing hard. This seems like a mismatch to me however. Marshawn Lynch will not be playing and without him, their toughness on offense diminishes considerably. Jacksonville is playing with determination on both sides of the ball. Del Rio will not let Jacksonville look past Buffalo with a chance to win the division.
Pick: Jaguars (-8)
CHIEFS (-5.5) Raiders: I am still perplexed at Kiffen’s decision to not play Jamarcus Russell. Happy to see Priest Holmes retire before a forever-in-a-wheelchair-hit happened. He never should have come out of retirement in the first place. I am going with the home team here.
Pick: Chiefs (-5.5)
BROWNS (-3) Texans: Andre Johnson turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff contender. The Texans are better defensively than the Browns and offensively, will be able to move the ball on a weak Brown defense. Who would have though that this game would have serious playoff implications when the season started? I am looking forward to this game.
Pick: Texans (+3)
Seahawks (-3) RAMS: This is the Super Bowl for St. Louis. To beat Seattle at home and throw a monkey wrench into their division title aspiration will salvage some of this injury plagued and forgetful season. Besides, I’m not sold on Seattle.
Pick: Rams (+3)
BUCS (-3) Redskins: Washington has played well the past few weeks and I look for that trend to continue. But, I am taking Tampa here. They are the home team, playing for a division title, Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level and their defense is getting better by the week.
Pick: Bucs (-3)
Saints (-2.5) CAROLINA: Carolina seems more lost than N.O. in a game that few people outside of the respective cities and those with fantasy football interests will care about.
Pick: Saints (-2.5)
CARDINALS (-10.5) 49ers: Zona is playing well on both sides of the ball, are at home, looking to get into the division/ wild-card race and are playing a team deep in an offensive funk. Scary part of this game is if Frank Gore gets some room to run, he can single handedly win this game for the Niners. Expect Arizona to load the box and make Dilfer beat them.
Pick: Zona (-10.5)
CHARGERS (-9.5) Ravens: How do you analyze a game where both head coaches have their heads up their asses? I’ll take the home team and move on from there. That does not feel right, I’ll take the points. No, Billick is going 5 wide with Kyle Boller, that pick does not seem right either. Do I even want to watch this game? Whatever.
Pick: Chargers (-9.5)
PATRIOTS (-22) Eagles: I am taking the Eagles because they have a secondary with playmakers and a defensive coordinator that has a blitzing mentality. Maybe that will slow the Patriots down. Maybe not. I think the real reason I am taking the Eagles is because I am an Eagle fan and can not pick against them with a 3 TD head start, regardless if McNabb goes or not. This may be the game Brady gets Giloolyed when he is still on the field in the 4th Q up by 32.
Pick: Eagles (+22)
STEELERS (-16) Dolphins: Dolphins are still playing hard and though they may not win this game, are still playing for organizational and personal pride.
Pick: Dolphins (+16)
Season 77 – 77 – 9
Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Daily News. HOME team in CAPS.
GIANTS (-7) Vikings: There is a chance Adrian Peterson will play this weekend. Why? Save this young man from further complications to his knee, sit him for the year, go find a few WRs and DBs and come back next year ready to make a run at the playoffs. A lot of injuries on the Giant side. The Vikings will continue to run the ball and they will do enough on defense to keep it close. Vikings win this outright if Manning can not throw in what will be a cold and windy day.
Pick: Vikings (+7)
BEARS (-1.5) Broncos: Both teams are disappointments so far, but I like Denver for a few reasons. Javon Walker is going to play. The Bears are still hurting on defense. Wheel of quarterback is spinning again in Chicago with Grossman back at helm. The Bronco defense is getting better as the season goes on and Denver has played consistently well the past few weeks.
Pick: Broncos (+1.5)
Titans (-1.5) BENGALS: Do not trust either team at this point, but Tennessee has a better coach, a solid running game and a better defense.
Pick: Titans (-1.5)
JAGUARS (-8) Bills: Dick Juron has the Bills playing solid football this season, a credit to him for motivating and the players for playing hard. This seems like a mismatch to me however. Marshawn Lynch will not be playing and without him, their toughness on offense diminishes considerably. Jacksonville is playing with determination on both sides of the ball. Del Rio will not let Jacksonville look past Buffalo with a chance to win the division.
Pick: Jaguars (-8)
CHIEFS (-5.5) Raiders: I am still perplexed at Kiffen’s decision to not play Jamarcus Russell. Happy to see Priest Holmes retire before a forever-in-a-wheelchair-hit happened. He never should have come out of retirement in the first place. I am going with the home team here.
Pick: Chiefs (-5.5)
BROWNS (-3) Texans: Andre Johnson turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff contender. The Texans are better defensively than the Browns and offensively, will be able to move the ball on a weak Brown defense. Who would have though that this game would have serious playoff implications when the season started? I am looking forward to this game.
Pick: Texans (+3)
Seahawks (-3) RAMS: This is the Super Bowl for St. Louis. To beat Seattle at home and throw a monkey wrench into their division title aspiration will salvage some of this injury plagued and forgetful season. Besides, I’m not sold on Seattle.
Pick: Rams (+3)
BUCS (-3) Redskins: Washington has played well the past few weeks and I look for that trend to continue. But, I am taking Tampa here. They are the home team, playing for a division title, Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level and their defense is getting better by the week.
Pick: Bucs (-3)
Saints (-2.5) CAROLINA: Carolina seems more lost than N.O. in a game that few people outside of the respective cities and those with fantasy football interests will care about.
Pick: Saints (-2.5)
CARDINALS (-10.5) 49ers: Zona is playing well on both sides of the ball, are at home, looking to get into the division/ wild-card race and are playing a team deep in an offensive funk. Scary part of this game is if Frank Gore gets some room to run, he can single handedly win this game for the Niners. Expect Arizona to load the box and make Dilfer beat them.
Pick: Zona (-10.5)
CHARGERS (-9.5) Ravens: How do you analyze a game where both head coaches have their heads up their asses? I’ll take the home team and move on from there. That does not feel right, I’ll take the points. No, Billick is going 5 wide with Kyle Boller, that pick does not seem right either. Do I even want to watch this game? Whatever.
Pick: Chargers (-9.5)
PATRIOTS (-22) Eagles: I am taking the Eagles because they have a secondary with playmakers and a defensive coordinator that has a blitzing mentality. Maybe that will slow the Patriots down. Maybe not. I think the real reason I am taking the Eagles is because I am an Eagle fan and can not pick against them with a 3 TD head start, regardless if McNabb goes or not. This may be the game Brady gets Giloolyed when he is still on the field in the 4th Q up by 32.
Pick: Eagles (+22)
STEELERS (-16) Dolphins: Dolphins are still playing hard and though they may not win this game, are still playing for organizational and personal pride.
Pick: Dolphins (+16)
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Thanksgiving Picks
Last Week 8 - 7 - 1
Season 76 - 75 - 9
Packers (-3) LIONS
Jets (+11.5) COWBOYS
FALCONS (+14) Colts
Season 76 - 75 - 9
Packers (-3) LIONS
Jets (+11.5) COWBOYS
FALCONS (+14) Colts
Croatia defeats England
A two goal lead in years passed, Croatia would have gone into a defensive shell in hopes of protecting the lead. Very few things in sports frustrate me more than a defensive shell in soccer. I see the logic for this strategy with 5 or so minutes to go in the game to protect a lead, but not at the quarter hour when Croatia made it 2-0. I was thrilled that the Croats continued to press for a third goal. England did come back with determined football to tie the match, and people will say that if Croatia went into a shell and only counter attacked, no way England scores two goals. Maybe. This may be true, but I have seen too many Croatia games and know that a defensive shell is not the mentality that fits our players. I remember open to everyone, on field protests when former head coach Kranjacar pulled the players back. Too many times Croatia was asked to protect a lead with much time left in the match, only to give up a goal or two, and then be asked to turn up the dial to score again. The Croats have always played football with flair and a scoring mentality, and there are too many talented players on the roster to ask them to play a shell. I will argue that the reason Croatia won this game was because they pressed for more goals when the score was 2-0. England played very well in the second half to tie the score, but it was evident that the constant Croatia attack wore England out by the 75th minute. I applaud Slavan Bilic with the way he is handling the Croatian National Team and his constant attack mentality is a refreshing alternative to the lackluster, just do enough to win philosophy of previous coaches.
England played with a lot of heart in the second half to tie the score with Beckham and Crouch being catalysts for most of the English chances. I am not a huge supporter of Crouch, but there is no denying his penchant for scoring in big games. His goal against Croatia was world class. Gerrard is England’s best all round football player and I cringed his every touch because I know he is a player that steps up strong in the big spots. The same can not be true about Frank Lampard and Joe Cole. I have documented in my EPL preview post that I feel Lampard is on the downside of his career and never seems to show up for a big contest. Aside from getting the penalty kick to go in the net, Lampard was non-existent. He is no longer a quality option for the English National side. Joe Cole is another player whose reputation exceeds his performance. He had many touches yesterday, no real threat came from any of them and most resulted in him flopping onto the pitch. How he continues to get time with the national side and Chelsea is beyond me.
Would the outcome been different if Rooney and Terry played? I would say yes. Along with Gerrrard, Rooney and Terry are the best English players and would have certainly made an impact on this contest. There is no saying England would have won the match. Croatia is a talented side and came ready to rumble. A possible blessing in disguise, this loss will propel the FA to look at the weaknesses on a team with a number of them, make some changes and ultimately have a successful run at the 2010 World Cup.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
NFL Week 11 Notes
Houston defeats New Orleans: In my AFC North Preview, I stated it would be hard for me to not have Andre Johnson in a top 5 NFL receiver list. He turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff team. The offense flows better with him in the lineup. Johnson demands safety help, ensuring a 7 man box for the running game to be established. The Texan defense, young and very fast, will be a strength for years to come if the group stays together. Mario Williams played with a lot of emotion and had a huge impact on the game. People will say it was because of playing against Reggie Bush, I think not. Watching Houston a lot this year, Williams has played hard and with determination on every down and is becoming a force, a guy that needs a double team or at least a chip from the RB. New Orleans played with some confidence early on. The Reggie Bush fumble was a killer with the score 7-3 Houston in the 1st Q. I liked Payton going for it on 4th and 10 from Houston’s 45 in the 3rd Q with the score 14-10 Houston. I liked Payton going for in on 4th and 2 from the Houston 43 with 12 minutes to play and the score 20- 10 Houston. What I did not like was his play-calling on 3rd down. If you know you are going to go for it on 4th down, run it with Bush on 3rd and 4. New Orleans has a very talented offensive core and with a bit of defense next year will be in the playoff hunt.
Arizona defeats Cincinnati: The Rudi Johnson era may be over in Cincinnati. Rudi Johnson has been one of the more consistent and reliable backs in the NFl for the past three seasons. He is a true between the tackles runner and his body looks a bit slower after three seasons of averaging over 340 carries per season. I do not think Kenny Watson is a #1 running back, but right now looks stronger at the point of impact and a lot quicker than Johnson. The Bengal season, so promising going into the season is dead. They make too many mistakes and have too many holes on defense to really be favored to win any games down the stretch. Arizona looked tough again this week, making plays on both sides of the ball when they needed to. Warner is playing well, the defense is making plays. One knock I have of their win is that the offensive line did a poor job of opening up running lanes against a soft Bengal front 7. The Zona running game has produced very little the past four contests after starting the season with some impressive games. Arizona has a real shot at the AFC West title. They will need continued defensive capacity and more importantly, a running game. As a side note, Antrel Rolle should be reprimanded for his taunting penalty after his game winning INT. He could have cost Arizona the game. Instead of kicking off from the 30, the Cards had to kick from the 15 and if not for a penalty on the return, Cinci would have had the ball at midfield with 20 seconds to go and a chance to tie.
Indianapolis defeats Kansas City: After the second half two minute warning, and Indianapolis facing a 4th a short form the KC 3, I looked at the guy next to me and said that Dungy will and should go for it. He answered back that there is now way he will or should go for it. During the commercial break I explained my side, which was the following. If you kick the field goal, K.C gets the ball back with about two minutes to go with one time out. One can not say what will happen on the kickoff, but a big return is possible. Croyle had been playing well, and with two big targets in Gonzalez and Bowe, had a good chance to get into FG range. If you go for it and get the first down, three kneel downs with a kick and the game is over. Worst case scenario is that you get stuffed and K.C needs to go about 70 yards for a FG attempt. Dungy showed a lot of faith in his line and in Manning to use his size to get a 1st down. I hope that Harrison and Ryan Diem get to 100% for the playoffs.
Jacksonville defeats San Diego: Norv Turner, you are dead to me. Is it really so hard to call on the best RB in football to run it 30 times a game when needed? LT should never be the second option in a football game. 16 rushes for the best RB in the game. 16!!! On the road, with Rivers looking like a college freshman, you gave the ball to LT 16 times. It pained me to watch this game. A consolation is that you may wise on up and change your ways before the season is over. The chargers should still win the West and maybe Norv will have smartened up by then and turn San Diego back into a run first team. I questioned Del Rio going with Gerrard after Grey had played well in his stead. Watching Gerrard this week changed my mind. He looks very smooth and effortless, in total control of the offense. Del Rio showed confidence in his team by going for it twice on 4th down on their second possession of the game. The Jaguar team identity is one of “we are tougher than you and will prove it”. On 4th and 1 from the SD 11 and then the SD 1, the Jags ran the ball getting a fist down and then a TD. Play calling like this instills confidence in a team and shows players that the coach believes in them. Come playoff time, the Jags will have confidence and experience in getting the 1st down when they are faced with a short yardage situation. Norv Turner showed no confidence in his team. 4th and 2 from the SD 39 in the 3rd Q. San Diego has an above average O-line, the best running back in the game and are in need of a confidence boost. Turner eschews all that and punts the ball. Jacksonville scored a TD on that possession. Jacksonville has a real shot at the division and certainly the wild card. The AFC South is strong enough to garner both wild card bids.
Vikings defeat Raiders: Steve Hutchinson gets the majority of press when it comes to the Viking O-line prowess. He deserves all the accolades bestowed on him. It will be an oversight if Matt Birk does not go to the Pro Bowl this year. He is mauling defensive tackles. With Brian McKinney also playing at a high level, the Viking line is doing a lot of damage, evident by the gaudy numbers Peterson and Taylor are putting up on a weekly basis. Tavarious Jackson looks very athletic but I am not sure if he is the answer at QB. I would like to see him play with a few decent wide receivers before casting final judgment. I said it before and I will say it again, Adrian Peterson should not play again this season. As for Oakland, where is Jamarcus Russel? Come on, lets see what this kid has. Scale down the play book and get him in there.
Eagles defeat Dolphins: There will be those in Philly that will call for Kolb or Feely to replace McNabb. These are the same fans that wanted McNabb out a long time ago and they should never speak about football again. McNabb is right behind Brady and Manning as best QB the last 8 years and no QB has done more with so little than has McNabb. The one year Philly management gave him a legit WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. McNabb is out of Philadelphia after this season and I hope he goes somewhere with some decent receivers. Westbrook won this game for the Eagles. Miami has not given up on this season and I will predict that they win a game. Rickey Williams was re-instated by the NFL. There have been many comments about Williams regarding his quitting of football and his use of marijuana. About smoking weed, raise your hand if you never smoked pot. I am not saying that NFL players should be allowed to smoke weed, it is still an illegal drug in this country. I am saying not to treat his pot use as if it is a crime on par with gun possession or shooting someone. In regards to him quitting football, I think he needed a break. Most of the people who criticize him probably never ran at full speed, let alone played football since the age of 8. Football is a grueling sport, with an enormous level of dedication in order to make it to the NFL. Williams made his money and then struggled with his true feelings on playing. I can not fault him for quitting, but I do fault him for not quitting before the NFL draft and leaving the Dolphins with a big hole at RB. I have a question for all those that look at Williams with disgust that he quit football. Do you like your job? If you answered no, and had millions in the bank, would you quit and do some things that interest you? Would you travel and see the world? I certainly would. Williams was getting beaten up every Sunday and needed to get away from it all. I wish him the best.
Denver beats Tennessee: Please get Vince Young some receivers for next season. How many dropped passes did the Titans have? 5, 6 maybe. The better team did not win this game. Why does John Lynch still play football? This man had neck surgery to remove bone spurs in 2004. Why risk limb mobility and play football, especially a hard hitting safety who loves to lead with his head? He had a neck stinger on Monday. Go spend some time with your family. I have a prediction. If someone looked up which player has hurt the most teammates in a career, I bet it would be John Lynch. There will be a pile up, play basically over and Lynch will come flying in to hit anything in sight and a lot of time it is his own teammate.
Dallas defeats Washington: Still not sold on the Dallas defense. Campbell played a wonderful game, his only mistake an interception at the Dallas 20 with about two minutes to go. I did not like the play calling here. Two minutes to go, at the Dallas 20 and all three time outs left. Gibbs decided to go pass happy. Why not run the ball with Portis on 1st down, help your young QB out. If it works on 1st down, run the ball again on 2nd down. There is plenty of time left so run your normal offense. On his interception, Campbell looked hesitant to use his legs once he got outside the pocket. It seemed to me that he had a good bit of space to run. He is going to be a very good QB for a while and Gibbs seems correct in moving up in the 2005 draft to pick him up. I wonder if the Cowboys will be able to move the ball once opposing teams figure out that they should guard Terrell Owens.
Cleveland defeats Baltimore: Fun game to watch. Cleveland let the Ravens back into this game. For all the good Cleveland has done this season, two bad things stand out to me. 1- They have a below average defense, 2- Very talented on offense, they are young and have yet to develop a killer instinct. Cleveland had Pittsburgh on the verge of defeat last week and eventually lost because they got nervous in the second half, making silly mistakes and costly turnovers. Same thing happened here against Baltimore, but the outcome was in their favor. It was news to me that field goals were not review able. Why not change that now? Get the competition committee on conference call and establish FGs as review able. It can’t be that hard and which owner would say no to this. Getting the call correct should be the bottom line.
Arizona defeats Cincinnati: The Rudi Johnson era may be over in Cincinnati. Rudi Johnson has been one of the more consistent and reliable backs in the NFl for the past three seasons. He is a true between the tackles runner and his body looks a bit slower after three seasons of averaging over 340 carries per season. I do not think Kenny Watson is a #1 running back, but right now looks stronger at the point of impact and a lot quicker than Johnson. The Bengal season, so promising going into the season is dead. They make too many mistakes and have too many holes on defense to really be favored to win any games down the stretch. Arizona looked tough again this week, making plays on both sides of the ball when they needed to. Warner is playing well, the defense is making plays. One knock I have of their win is that the offensive line did a poor job of opening up running lanes against a soft Bengal front 7. The Zona running game has produced very little the past four contests after starting the season with some impressive games. Arizona has a real shot at the AFC West title. They will need continued defensive capacity and more importantly, a running game. As a side note, Antrel Rolle should be reprimanded for his taunting penalty after his game winning INT. He could have cost Arizona the game. Instead of kicking off from the 30, the Cards had to kick from the 15 and if not for a penalty on the return, Cinci would have had the ball at midfield with 20 seconds to go and a chance to tie.
Indianapolis defeats Kansas City: After the second half two minute warning, and Indianapolis facing a 4th a short form the KC 3, I looked at the guy next to me and said that Dungy will and should go for it. He answered back that there is now way he will or should go for it. During the commercial break I explained my side, which was the following. If you kick the field goal, K.C gets the ball back with about two minutes to go with one time out. One can not say what will happen on the kickoff, but a big return is possible. Croyle had been playing well, and with two big targets in Gonzalez and Bowe, had a good chance to get into FG range. If you go for it and get the first down, three kneel downs with a kick and the game is over. Worst case scenario is that you get stuffed and K.C needs to go about 70 yards for a FG attempt. Dungy showed a lot of faith in his line and in Manning to use his size to get a 1st down. I hope that Harrison and Ryan Diem get to 100% for the playoffs.
Jacksonville defeats San Diego: Norv Turner, you are dead to me. Is it really so hard to call on the best RB in football to run it 30 times a game when needed? LT should never be the second option in a football game. 16 rushes for the best RB in the game. 16!!! On the road, with Rivers looking like a college freshman, you gave the ball to LT 16 times. It pained me to watch this game. A consolation is that you may wise on up and change your ways before the season is over. The chargers should still win the West and maybe Norv will have smartened up by then and turn San Diego back into a run first team. I questioned Del Rio going with Gerrard after Grey had played well in his stead. Watching Gerrard this week changed my mind. He looks very smooth and effortless, in total control of the offense. Del Rio showed confidence in his team by going for it twice on 4th down on their second possession of the game. The Jaguar team identity is one of “we are tougher than you and will prove it”. On 4th and 1 from the SD 11 and then the SD 1, the Jags ran the ball getting a fist down and then a TD. Play calling like this instills confidence in a team and shows players that the coach believes in them. Come playoff time, the Jags will have confidence and experience in getting the 1st down when they are faced with a short yardage situation. Norv Turner showed no confidence in his team. 4th and 2 from the SD 39 in the 3rd Q. San Diego has an above average O-line, the best running back in the game and are in need of a confidence boost. Turner eschews all that and punts the ball. Jacksonville scored a TD on that possession. Jacksonville has a real shot at the division and certainly the wild card. The AFC South is strong enough to garner both wild card bids.
Vikings defeat Raiders: Steve Hutchinson gets the majority of press when it comes to the Viking O-line prowess. He deserves all the accolades bestowed on him. It will be an oversight if Matt Birk does not go to the Pro Bowl this year. He is mauling defensive tackles. With Brian McKinney also playing at a high level, the Viking line is doing a lot of damage, evident by the gaudy numbers Peterson and Taylor are putting up on a weekly basis. Tavarious Jackson looks very athletic but I am not sure if he is the answer at QB. I would like to see him play with a few decent wide receivers before casting final judgment. I said it before and I will say it again, Adrian Peterson should not play again this season. As for Oakland, where is Jamarcus Russel? Come on, lets see what this kid has. Scale down the play book and get him in there.
Eagles defeat Dolphins: There will be those in Philly that will call for Kolb or Feely to replace McNabb. These are the same fans that wanted McNabb out a long time ago and they should never speak about football again. McNabb is right behind Brady and Manning as best QB the last 8 years and no QB has done more with so little than has McNabb. The one year Philly management gave him a legit WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. McNabb is out of Philadelphia after this season and I hope he goes somewhere with some decent receivers. Westbrook won this game for the Eagles. Miami has not given up on this season and I will predict that they win a game. Rickey Williams was re-instated by the NFL. There have been many comments about Williams regarding his quitting of football and his use of marijuana. About smoking weed, raise your hand if you never smoked pot. I am not saying that NFL players should be allowed to smoke weed, it is still an illegal drug in this country. I am saying not to treat his pot use as if it is a crime on par with gun possession or shooting someone. In regards to him quitting football, I think he needed a break. Most of the people who criticize him probably never ran at full speed, let alone played football since the age of 8. Football is a grueling sport, with an enormous level of dedication in order to make it to the NFL. Williams made his money and then struggled with his true feelings on playing. I can not fault him for quitting, but I do fault him for not quitting before the NFL draft and leaving the Dolphins with a big hole at RB. I have a question for all those that look at Williams with disgust that he quit football. Do you like your job? If you answered no, and had millions in the bank, would you quit and do some things that interest you? Would you travel and see the world? I certainly would. Williams was getting beaten up every Sunday and needed to get away from it all. I wish him the best.
Denver beats Tennessee: Please get Vince Young some receivers for next season. How many dropped passes did the Titans have? 5, 6 maybe. The better team did not win this game. Why does John Lynch still play football? This man had neck surgery to remove bone spurs in 2004. Why risk limb mobility and play football, especially a hard hitting safety who loves to lead with his head? He had a neck stinger on Monday. Go spend some time with your family. I have a prediction. If someone looked up which player has hurt the most teammates in a career, I bet it would be John Lynch. There will be a pile up, play basically over and Lynch will come flying in to hit anything in sight and a lot of time it is his own teammate.
Dallas defeats Washington: Still not sold on the Dallas defense. Campbell played a wonderful game, his only mistake an interception at the Dallas 20 with about two minutes to go. I did not like the play calling here. Two minutes to go, at the Dallas 20 and all three time outs left. Gibbs decided to go pass happy. Why not run the ball with Portis on 1st down, help your young QB out. If it works on 1st down, run the ball again on 2nd down. There is plenty of time left so run your normal offense. On his interception, Campbell looked hesitant to use his legs once he got outside the pocket. It seemed to me that he had a good bit of space to run. He is going to be a very good QB for a while and Gibbs seems correct in moving up in the 2005 draft to pick him up. I wonder if the Cowboys will be able to move the ball once opposing teams figure out that they should guard Terrell Owens.
Cleveland defeats Baltimore: Fun game to watch. Cleveland let the Ravens back into this game. For all the good Cleveland has done this season, two bad things stand out to me. 1- They have a below average defense, 2- Very talented on offense, they are young and have yet to develop a killer instinct. Cleveland had Pittsburgh on the verge of defeat last week and eventually lost because they got nervous in the second half, making silly mistakes and costly turnovers. Same thing happened here against Baltimore, but the outcome was in their favor. It was news to me that field goals were not review able. Why not change that now? Get the competition committee on conference call and establish FGs as review able. It can’t be that hard and which owner would say no to this. Getting the call correct should be the bottom line.
Friday, November 16, 2007
NFL Week 11 Picks
Last week 7 – 6 – 1
Season 68 – 68 – 8
Home team in CAPS. Spreads from the Thursday New York Post.
My pick for each game is the first team listed.
LIONS (+3) Giants
Steelers (-9.5) JETS
Chargers (+3) JAGUARS
COLTS (-14.5) Chiefs
Raiders (+5.5) VIKINGS
Browns (-2.5) RAVENS
Bucs (-3) FALCONS
Cardinals (+3) BENGALS
EAGLES (-10) Dolphins
Patriots (-16) BILLS
Washington (-10.5) COWBOYS
Bears (+6) SEAHAWKS
TEXANS (-1) Saints
PACKERS (-10) Panthers
Rams (-3) 49ERS
Titans (+2) BRONCOS
Season 68 – 68 – 8
Home team in CAPS. Spreads from the Thursday New York Post.
My pick for each game is the first team listed.
LIONS (+3) Giants
Steelers (-9.5) JETS
Chargers (+3) JAGUARS
COLTS (-14.5) Chiefs
Raiders (+5.5) VIKINGS
Browns (-2.5) RAVENS
Bucs (-3) FALCONS
Cardinals (+3) BENGALS
EAGLES (-10) Dolphins
Patriots (-16) BILLS
Washington (-10.5) COWBOYS
Bears (+6) SEAHAWKS
TEXANS (-1) Saints
PACKERS (-10) Panthers
Rams (-3) 49ERS
Titans (+2) BRONCOS
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
NFL Week 10 Game Notes
Games I watched this weekend
Chargers defeat Colts: Did anyone see the look of dismay on L.T.s face during and after the game? The look of, “why am I not the focal point of this offense”. News to Norv “I look shook on the sidelines” Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson is the best running back in the game and needs the ball 30 times at a minimum. San Diego is a running offense and the ball needs to be in the hands of LT throughout the game. I know they have Gates and now Chambers, but these players are the dressing and LT is the salad. During Charger games this season I find myself asking, “why are they not running the ball?”. This is a question that should not be asked on a team with Tomlinson in his prime. San Diego was lucky to win this game, which is sad in lieu of 6 picks and two kick returns for touchdowns.
Packers defeat Vikings: If Adrian Peterson plays again this season I would like to see a boycott of the remaining Metrodome tilts. The best player on your team, a player that has everything to be a star for the next decade just suffered a ligament tear. You are 3-6, no realistic shot at the playoffs, do me a favor, please. DO NOT PLAY THIS YOUNG MAN AGAIN THIS SEASON!! It would be stupid and reckless. I understand that it is not a “serious” ligament injury, but why risk his and the organization’s future? Why was Favre in the game with 6 minutes to go in a 27-0 game? Good news for Green Bay is that Ryan Grant is a determined enough runner to give the Pack a legitimate running game. Somewhat bad news is that standout offensive tackle Mark Tauscher suffered an ankle injury. The Packer website reported that the injury does not seem serious.
Eagles defeat Redskins: I love that Andy Reid kissed McNabb on his head as Reid was giving him a headlock in the closing minutes of the game. Both of them, each excellent at what they do, have been scrutinized heavily through any slide in Eagle production during their tenure together. It seemed to me that Andy Reid really appreciated everything McNabb has accomplished as an Eagle with that kiss. Sort of like the visions of the dying seeing their life flash before their eyes, Reid saw all the wins and success McNabb has given him at that moment. The Eagles are a veteran team with a lot of pride and one heck of a back in Westbrook, who is the MVP of the Eagles this year. A playoff push is possible if the defense can make a few stops a game. The Eagle defense made the Redskin offense look much better than they actually are. Joe Gibbs made a mistake going for 2 when he was up 12- 7 in the 2nd Q.
Steelers defeat Browns: I was waiting for one of the star offensive players on the Browns to make a play in the second half and it never happened. Jamal Lewis was ineffective and Anderson looked nervous. The Brown offense came to a halt after the opening half with their possessions resulting in six punts, a fumble, a kickoff return for a TD and a missed FG attempt. The Brown defense also relented in the second half but that had more to do with the Steelers playing better on the offensive end. Rothlisberger played a tremendous game, made all the big plays he had to and won this game for the Steelers. There is no hesitation in Rothlisberger this year, vividly seen on his long TD run. Willie Parker is a very good runner and the Steeler defense is above average and getting better every week.
Bills defeat Dolphins: Good win on the road for Buffalo against a team desperate for a win. Marshawn Lynch continues to impress. His stat line was a pedestrian 19 rushes for 61 yards, but he had to fight for all those yards and got the ball into the end zone when the Bills needed a TD and the ensuing 2pt conversion. The holding call on Miami’s kickoff return nullifying Tedd Ginn Jr’s TD is a play typical of a losing team. Miami played better on both sides of the ball and should have won this game.
Rams defeat Saints: The Saint defense was once again horrendous. St. Louis moved the ball at will through the air and on the ground. The Saints have a good offense but a serious lack of talent in their defense will make it tough on them to get into the playoffs at 4-5. Steven Jackson looked healthy, Bulger looked healthy and the line played better than it has this season. Barring injuries, St. Louis will win a few more games before this season is complete and play spoiler in the NFC West.
Seahawks defeat San Fran: The first play from scrimmage was a very nice call. Fake handoff to Frank Gore, semi roll-out to the right by Alex Smith, then throw deep to Darrell Jackson on a fly route. Jackson was open by 5 yards but the ball was severely under thrown. The MNF announcers made no comment to the ball being under thrown. They spoke of the play call being good and that the defense was fooled, but neglected to mention that if the ball was thrown correctly, San Fran goes up 6-0. Frank Gore had a good game but looks as if he is limping going back to the huddle after every play. The 49ers need to evaluate his condition and make sure they are not jeopardizing any future Frank Gore production by playing him. I liked Nolan going for the TD on 4th and 1 from the Seattle 2. I did not like him going for the 1st down on 4th and 3 from Seattle’s 23 when he needed a FG at some point in the game, 17-0 at the time, and the San Fran defense had been playing better the last few sets.
Chargers defeat Colts: Did anyone see the look of dismay on L.T.s face during and after the game? The look of, “why am I not the focal point of this offense”. News to Norv “I look shook on the sidelines” Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson is the best running back in the game and needs the ball 30 times at a minimum. San Diego is a running offense and the ball needs to be in the hands of LT throughout the game. I know they have Gates and now Chambers, but these players are the dressing and LT is the salad. During Charger games this season I find myself asking, “why are they not running the ball?”. This is a question that should not be asked on a team with Tomlinson in his prime. San Diego was lucky to win this game, which is sad in lieu of 6 picks and two kick returns for touchdowns.
Packers defeat Vikings: If Adrian Peterson plays again this season I would like to see a boycott of the remaining Metrodome tilts. The best player on your team, a player that has everything to be a star for the next decade just suffered a ligament tear. You are 3-6, no realistic shot at the playoffs, do me a favor, please. DO NOT PLAY THIS YOUNG MAN AGAIN THIS SEASON!! It would be stupid and reckless. I understand that it is not a “serious” ligament injury, but why risk his and the organization’s future? Why was Favre in the game with 6 minutes to go in a 27-0 game? Good news for Green Bay is that Ryan Grant is a determined enough runner to give the Pack a legitimate running game. Somewhat bad news is that standout offensive tackle Mark Tauscher suffered an ankle injury. The Packer website reported that the injury does not seem serious.
Eagles defeat Redskins: I love that Andy Reid kissed McNabb on his head as Reid was giving him a headlock in the closing minutes of the game. Both of them, each excellent at what they do, have been scrutinized heavily through any slide in Eagle production during their tenure together. It seemed to me that Andy Reid really appreciated everything McNabb has accomplished as an Eagle with that kiss. Sort of like the visions of the dying seeing their life flash before their eyes, Reid saw all the wins and success McNabb has given him at that moment. The Eagles are a veteran team with a lot of pride and one heck of a back in Westbrook, who is the MVP of the Eagles this year. A playoff push is possible if the defense can make a few stops a game. The Eagle defense made the Redskin offense look much better than they actually are. Joe Gibbs made a mistake going for 2 when he was up 12- 7 in the 2nd Q.
Steelers defeat Browns: I was waiting for one of the star offensive players on the Browns to make a play in the second half and it never happened. Jamal Lewis was ineffective and Anderson looked nervous. The Brown offense came to a halt after the opening half with their possessions resulting in six punts, a fumble, a kickoff return for a TD and a missed FG attempt. The Brown defense also relented in the second half but that had more to do with the Steelers playing better on the offensive end. Rothlisberger played a tremendous game, made all the big plays he had to and won this game for the Steelers. There is no hesitation in Rothlisberger this year, vividly seen on his long TD run. Willie Parker is a very good runner and the Steeler defense is above average and getting better every week.
Bills defeat Dolphins: Good win on the road for Buffalo against a team desperate for a win. Marshawn Lynch continues to impress. His stat line was a pedestrian 19 rushes for 61 yards, but he had to fight for all those yards and got the ball into the end zone when the Bills needed a TD and the ensuing 2pt conversion. The holding call on Miami’s kickoff return nullifying Tedd Ginn Jr’s TD is a play typical of a losing team. Miami played better on both sides of the ball and should have won this game.
Rams defeat Saints: The Saint defense was once again horrendous. St. Louis moved the ball at will through the air and on the ground. The Saints have a good offense but a serious lack of talent in their defense will make it tough on them to get into the playoffs at 4-5. Steven Jackson looked healthy, Bulger looked healthy and the line played better than it has this season. Barring injuries, St. Louis will win a few more games before this season is complete and play spoiler in the NFC West.
Seahawks defeat San Fran: The first play from scrimmage was a very nice call. Fake handoff to Frank Gore, semi roll-out to the right by Alex Smith, then throw deep to Darrell Jackson on a fly route. Jackson was open by 5 yards but the ball was severely under thrown. The MNF announcers made no comment to the ball being under thrown. They spoke of the play call being good and that the defense was fooled, but neglected to mention that if the ball was thrown correctly, San Fran goes up 6-0. Frank Gore had a good game but looks as if he is limping going back to the huddle after every play. The 49ers need to evaluate his condition and make sure they are not jeopardizing any future Frank Gore production by playing him. I liked Nolan going for the TD on 4th and 1 from the Seattle 2. I did not like him going for the 1st down on 4th and 3 from Seattle’s 23 when he needed a FG at some point in the game, 17-0 at the time, and the San Fran defense had been playing better the last few sets.
Friday, November 9, 2007
NFL Week 10 Picks
Last Week 10 – 4 – 0
Season 61 – 62 – 7
Spreads courtesy of the Thursday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.
Cowboys (-1.5) GIANTS: I am not sold on the Cowboy defense. The Giants come into this game with a confident O-line, a confident and bruising RB in Brandon Jacobs, and a maturing Eli Manning who will have mismatches at his disposal with Burress and Shockey. Manning has avoided bad interceptions the past few games and that trend needs to continue because the Cowboy offense is too good to give them extra possessions. The Giants are going to score on Dallas. If the Giant front 4 can be as effective this week as they have been since the second half of Week 3 against the Redskins, the Giants are going to win. I look for the Giants to play with emotion behind a big game from Jacobs and their front 4. Interesting match up will be how rookie CB Aaron Ross reacts if lined up against Owens.
Pick: Giants (+1.5)
TITANS (-4.5) Jaguars: Vince Young is playing way below his talent level. The Titans wins are from a great defense and coaching. Jeff Fischer is a top 5 NFL head coach and his “F.U.” attitude permeates the Titan roster. Albert Haynesworth is having a defensive MVP season and Kieth Bulluck is heading to the Pro Bowl again. They are at home against a Jaguars team that is not as good as their 5-3 record. Look for Vince Young to snap out of his cold spell. He steps up in the big games and at home against a division rival is a big game.
Pick: Titans (-4.5)
CHIEFS (-3) Broncos: After being out with a severe spine/neck injury, Priest Holmes makes his first start since October 2005. Holmes should be nowhere near a football field. Did the league clear him to play or is this a team doctor decision? Either way, the love of football or money is not worth the risk of being a wheelchair the rest of one’s life. Now, when he plays, I like his chances of regaining some of his form. He will never be the stud RB he was 4 years ago, but he has not taken a hit in 2 years so his body is fresh. 20 touches is a strong possibility. Denver is a mess on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs are playing with confidence, they are at home and playing for a playoff push. I am not a Herm Edwards fan at all, but he is doing a fine job with the Chiefs this season.
Pick: Chiefs (-3)
Bills (-3) DOLPHINS: Dick Jauron has the Bills playing well and are two last second FGs away from a 6-2 record. Jauron needs to stress that his team not look past the Dolphins this week with the Patriots looming next Sunday nigh because the Dolphins are still playing hard, searching for a win to keep them from going 0-fer-season. Marshawn Lynch is a talented runner playing behind a weekly improving O-line. J.P. Losman is re-connecting with the talented Lee Evans. Buffalo’s defense is playing very opportunistically and the Bills have had some big special team plays. This is a tough game for the Bills but I am staying with the hot hand.
Pick: Bills (-3)
PACKERS (-6) Vikings: The way Peterson is full speed one step after hitting the hole or making a cut is a beautiful thing to watch, and a big reason for his success. The Vikings will get a QB and receiver in the off season and be a real threat next season. The Packers are making me a believer and I do not see them losing at home to a team that is so one-dimensional. Green Bay is solid defensively and will keep Peterson from running over 120 yardsd, which should be enough to win. Gregg Jennings is becoming a Favre favorite as a long ball threat. He and Driver will both have a good game.
Pick: Packers (-6)
RAVENS (-4.5) Bengals: Have the Bengals given up? Maybe. I am not sure how much control Marvin Lewis has in the Bengal locker room and their defense is really bad. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot with a 4-4 record. A reservation I have against the Ravens this week is that both starting CBs, McCallister and Rolle, may not play, giving the Bengals an advantage in the throwing game. I have a suggestion for Billick, the “offensive genius”, run the ball 45 times against the Bengals and you will win. This guy is getting way too cute in his play-calling. Going 5-wide in the rain last weekend early in the game was a mistake. I am going with the Ravens here. I’ll take the home team that is playing for the play-offs and to avenge an embarrassing loss last week in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Ravens (-4.5)
Bears (-3) RAIDERS: Jamarcus Russell needs to start and get his feet wet. The Raiders will not make the playoffs and must use these last 8 games as on the job training for Russell. This game is a good opportunity for the Bears to get their defense in somewhat of an order. Bottom line for me is this. The Bears are the more talented team and need to win this game on the road to have a chance at the playoffs.
Pick: Bears (-3)
CARDINALS (-1) Lions: Strange things happen in the desert. The Cards are much better at home and will have starting RT Levi Brown back in the lineup. Detroit is playing well on offense and taking the ball away on defense. Tough game to call but I’ll take the desert team at home with something to prove on the offensive end against a dome team whose defense is playing above their heads.
Pick: Cardinals (-1)
SEAHAWKS (-10) 49ers: I do not trust Seattle giving 10 points to William Cullen Bryant H.S., never mind an NFL team. The Niners have to start scoring at some point, don’t they?
Pick: 49ers (+10)
Colts (-3.5) CHARGERS: The Chargers must come out Sunday night and show that they can win a big game. I see LaDainian Tomlinson being very assertive in practice this week, making sure the offense is prepared and letting the entire team know they are better than their 4-4 record. L.T. will get the ball 30+ times in this game. The Chargers are at home, need a win, need to play well on the national stage and are playing a Colt team that is ripe for an emotional let down after blowing a ten point lead last weekend with a bit over 9 minutes left. An injury to DE Louis Castillo is a big loss for the Chargers. A very talented and athletic player, he is out for about 6 weeks with an ankle injury. I read somewhere that Adrian Peterson had 49 yards at halftime last week, before Castillo was injured.
Pick: Chargers (+3.5)
STEELERS (-9.5) Browns: Pittsburgh is playing well on both sides of the ball. Rothlisberger is playing without the hesitation he showed last season while recovering from severe facial injury due to his motorcycle accident. He should not have been out on the field last season, especially the first 8 games or so, but this is the NFL, and they don’t care about if you are playing with a semi-broken face. Santonio Holmes, a talented and wiry WR, is starting to play up to his potential this season. The Browns defense is still not producing consistent stops but they may have received a momentum push in last week’s win over Seattle. Their stopping of Seattle on 4th and 1 in OT at midfields could be the play that will give their defensive unit a confidence boost heading into this game. Nine points seems a bit much considering the Browns are playing at such a high level offensively. The Browns win this game outright is Lewis gets 22+ carries.
Pick: Browns (+9.5)
PANTHERS (-4) Falcons: Neither team inspires much confidence but I am taking Atlanta for a few reasons. DeAngelo Hall is going to make amends for the first game these two teams played this season when he handed the Panthers the game with dumb penalties, the QB situation in Carolina is a mess, Atlanta has played better defense then their record would indicate and I do not think the team has quit on Bobby Patrino.
Pick: Falcons (+4)
REDSKINS (-3) Eagles:There are too many talented, veteran players on the Eagles to have this season turn into a total wash. Look for Jimmy Johnson to up the pressure on Campbell and stack the box to nullify Portis. McNabb’s job is tied to this game. If the Eagles lose, Kolb will be called on so Eagle management can see who they drafted.
Pick: Eagles (+3)
SAINTS (-11.5) Rams: I keep telling myself to pick the Rams, but then I look at their defense and think “no way”. The bye week helped the offense get healthy, but the defense is still a very weak unit. 12 points to cover is a lot, but N.O. is playing at a high level offensively a 31- 17 type of game is a possibility.
Pick: N.O. (-11.5)
Season 61 – 62 – 7
Spreads courtesy of the Thursday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.
Cowboys (-1.5) GIANTS: I am not sold on the Cowboy defense. The Giants come into this game with a confident O-line, a confident and bruising RB in Brandon Jacobs, and a maturing Eli Manning who will have mismatches at his disposal with Burress and Shockey. Manning has avoided bad interceptions the past few games and that trend needs to continue because the Cowboy offense is too good to give them extra possessions. The Giants are going to score on Dallas. If the Giant front 4 can be as effective this week as they have been since the second half of Week 3 against the Redskins, the Giants are going to win. I look for the Giants to play with emotion behind a big game from Jacobs and their front 4. Interesting match up will be how rookie CB Aaron Ross reacts if lined up against Owens.
Pick: Giants (+1.5)
TITANS (-4.5) Jaguars: Vince Young is playing way below his talent level. The Titans wins are from a great defense and coaching. Jeff Fischer is a top 5 NFL head coach and his “F.U.” attitude permeates the Titan roster. Albert Haynesworth is having a defensive MVP season and Kieth Bulluck is heading to the Pro Bowl again. They are at home against a Jaguars team that is not as good as their 5-3 record. Look for Vince Young to snap out of his cold spell. He steps up in the big games and at home against a division rival is a big game.
Pick: Titans (-4.5)
CHIEFS (-3) Broncos: After being out with a severe spine/neck injury, Priest Holmes makes his first start since October 2005. Holmes should be nowhere near a football field. Did the league clear him to play or is this a team doctor decision? Either way, the love of football or money is not worth the risk of being a wheelchair the rest of one’s life. Now, when he plays, I like his chances of regaining some of his form. He will never be the stud RB he was 4 years ago, but he has not taken a hit in 2 years so his body is fresh. 20 touches is a strong possibility. Denver is a mess on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs are playing with confidence, they are at home and playing for a playoff push. I am not a Herm Edwards fan at all, but he is doing a fine job with the Chiefs this season.
Pick: Chiefs (-3)
Bills (-3) DOLPHINS: Dick Jauron has the Bills playing well and are two last second FGs away from a 6-2 record. Jauron needs to stress that his team not look past the Dolphins this week with the Patriots looming next Sunday nigh because the Dolphins are still playing hard, searching for a win to keep them from going 0-fer-season. Marshawn Lynch is a talented runner playing behind a weekly improving O-line. J.P. Losman is re-connecting with the talented Lee Evans. Buffalo’s defense is playing very opportunistically and the Bills have had some big special team plays. This is a tough game for the Bills but I am staying with the hot hand.
Pick: Bills (-3)
PACKERS (-6) Vikings: The way Peterson is full speed one step after hitting the hole or making a cut is a beautiful thing to watch, and a big reason for his success. The Vikings will get a QB and receiver in the off season and be a real threat next season. The Packers are making me a believer and I do not see them losing at home to a team that is so one-dimensional. Green Bay is solid defensively and will keep Peterson from running over 120 yardsd, which should be enough to win. Gregg Jennings is becoming a Favre favorite as a long ball threat. He and Driver will both have a good game.
Pick: Packers (-6)
RAVENS (-4.5) Bengals: Have the Bengals given up? Maybe. I am not sure how much control Marvin Lewis has in the Bengal locker room and their defense is really bad. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot with a 4-4 record. A reservation I have against the Ravens this week is that both starting CBs, McCallister and Rolle, may not play, giving the Bengals an advantage in the throwing game. I have a suggestion for Billick, the “offensive genius”, run the ball 45 times against the Bengals and you will win. This guy is getting way too cute in his play-calling. Going 5-wide in the rain last weekend early in the game was a mistake. I am going with the Ravens here. I’ll take the home team that is playing for the play-offs and to avenge an embarrassing loss last week in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Ravens (-4.5)
Bears (-3) RAIDERS: Jamarcus Russell needs to start and get his feet wet. The Raiders will not make the playoffs and must use these last 8 games as on the job training for Russell. This game is a good opportunity for the Bears to get their defense in somewhat of an order. Bottom line for me is this. The Bears are the more talented team and need to win this game on the road to have a chance at the playoffs.
Pick: Bears (-3)
CARDINALS (-1) Lions: Strange things happen in the desert. The Cards are much better at home and will have starting RT Levi Brown back in the lineup. Detroit is playing well on offense and taking the ball away on defense. Tough game to call but I’ll take the desert team at home with something to prove on the offensive end against a dome team whose defense is playing above their heads.
Pick: Cardinals (-1)
SEAHAWKS (-10) 49ers: I do not trust Seattle giving 10 points to William Cullen Bryant H.S., never mind an NFL team. The Niners have to start scoring at some point, don’t they?
Pick: 49ers (+10)
Colts (-3.5) CHARGERS: The Chargers must come out Sunday night and show that they can win a big game. I see LaDainian Tomlinson being very assertive in practice this week, making sure the offense is prepared and letting the entire team know they are better than their 4-4 record. L.T. will get the ball 30+ times in this game. The Chargers are at home, need a win, need to play well on the national stage and are playing a Colt team that is ripe for an emotional let down after blowing a ten point lead last weekend with a bit over 9 minutes left. An injury to DE Louis Castillo is a big loss for the Chargers. A very talented and athletic player, he is out for about 6 weeks with an ankle injury. I read somewhere that Adrian Peterson had 49 yards at halftime last week, before Castillo was injured.
Pick: Chargers (+3.5)
STEELERS (-9.5) Browns: Pittsburgh is playing well on both sides of the ball. Rothlisberger is playing without the hesitation he showed last season while recovering from severe facial injury due to his motorcycle accident. He should not have been out on the field last season, especially the first 8 games or so, but this is the NFL, and they don’t care about if you are playing with a semi-broken face. Santonio Holmes, a talented and wiry WR, is starting to play up to his potential this season. The Browns defense is still not producing consistent stops but they may have received a momentum push in last week’s win over Seattle. Their stopping of Seattle on 4th and 1 in OT at midfields could be the play that will give their defensive unit a confidence boost heading into this game. Nine points seems a bit much considering the Browns are playing at such a high level offensively. The Browns win this game outright is Lewis gets 22+ carries.
Pick: Browns (+9.5)
PANTHERS (-4) Falcons: Neither team inspires much confidence but I am taking Atlanta for a few reasons. DeAngelo Hall is going to make amends for the first game these two teams played this season when he handed the Panthers the game with dumb penalties, the QB situation in Carolina is a mess, Atlanta has played better defense then their record would indicate and I do not think the team has quit on Bobby Patrino.
Pick: Falcons (+4)
REDSKINS (-3) Eagles:There are too many talented, veteran players on the Eagles to have this season turn into a total wash. Look for Jimmy Johnson to up the pressure on Campbell and stack the box to nullify Portis. McNabb’s job is tied to this game. If the Eagles lose, Kolb will be called on so Eagle management can see who they drafted.
Pick: Eagles (+3)
SAINTS (-11.5) Rams: I keep telling myself to pick the Rams, but then I look at their defense and think “no way”. The bye week helped the offense get healthy, but the defense is still a very weak unit. 12 points to cover is a lot, but N.O. is playing at a high level offensively a 31- 17 type of game is a possibility.
Pick: N.O. (-11.5)
Friday, November 2, 2007
NFL Week 9 Picks
Last Week 4 – 9 – 0
Season 51 – 58 – 7
Home team in CAPS. Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post.
Redskins (-3.5) JETS: Kellen Clemens threw a pass last week, moving forward in the pocket, but had to use only his arm to get a good throw off because I remember a defender at his legs. The throw actually drew ohhhhhs from the crowd and a raise in octave from the announcer doing the play by play because of how strong the throw was. Clemens started the Baltimore game, and I only saw the last 8 or so minutes (included in those minutes were 3 dropped passes, 1 a definite tie the game TD), so I do not know any more about him than someone who watched the pre-season Jet games. Is he poised? Does he manage a game well? Is pressure kryptonite? We will find out. I do know that the fly route and 20 yard out will be part of the playbook once again. The benefit of arm strength is that the game-planning/play calling for the Jets need not be play-action based. Time and time again this season, in crucial situations, Mangini has shown no confidence in Jones and the O-line. As far as I am concerned, 3rd and under 3 yards, anywhere on the field, is 4 down territory this week for the Jets. All this being said, I like the Redskins to come out with emotion after last week, and a running game that will wear down the Jets.
Pick: Redskins (-3.5)
CHIEFS (-2.5) Packers: The Chiefs are 4-3 and the wins have come from a QB challenged Minnesota, turnover plagued San Diego, an underachieving Cincinnati and a bad Oakland team. The common denominator in all their wins is a solid defense. DE Jared Allen is a monster, will be in the All- Pro game every year type of player. The LB corp is very talented with Napoleon Harris, Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards. However, Green Bay has grown on me with solid play on both sides of the ball. If RB Ryan Grant can continue on his solid performance from last week, Green Bay has an excellent shot at this game, but also a deep playoff run. Favre is playing really well and the defense should be able to keep L.J. in check. As a note, the line has moved from KC -1 to KC -2.5.
Pick: Packers (+2.5)
BUCCANEERS (-3.5) Cardinals: Warner is still a good QB. Not as good as he was in the early part of this century, but still a better QB than 75% of the league starters. He is still accurate and quick with his reads. Arizona’s O-line is beat up, but under Russ Grimm’s tutelage, has become better every week. They are opening holes for Edge and throwing lanes for Warner. Coming out of the bye week, I like Arizona in the hot weather against a team that let Quinn Grey beat them last week.
Pick: Cardinals (+3.5)
TITANS (-4) Panthers: Titans come out to play every game. Titans still need to get a top notch receiver. In the mean time, I would like to see Justin Gage see more passes thrown his way. His size is impressive and I have seen him make a few tough catches this year. The Titans have a defense that should bottle up the Panther running game and I see Tennessee winning by 10. Carolina is a mediocre team right now.
Pick: Titans (-4)
FALCONS (-3.5) 49ers: Petrino really needs to give the ball to Norewood more than he gives the ball to Dunn. Warrick Dunn has had a great career, was a very versatile back, but has lost that quickness and burst that made him so effective for so many years. Norewood has quickness, speed, excellent receiving skills, big play potential and age on his side. With the Falcon record where it is, why not turn the starting job over to Norewood? The Niners are a disappointment this season. Frank Gore is gimpy and overall, the offense is playing poorly. Alex Smith is the starter once again, and if the O-line can give him some time, should be able to move the ball with throws to a talented receiving corp in Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis is a mismatch for most LB’s in the league and should get open this week. The Niner defense, young and athletic, has not played very well against the good offenses they have faced this season. The injury to OLB Manny Lawson was a big blow in week 2. I will put an if bet on this game.
Pick:
If Gore plays – Niners (+3.5)
If Gore does not play – Falcons (-3.5)
SAINTS (-3) Jaguars: Even with Quinn Grey at helm for the Jags, this is a tough game to call. The Jaguars are a hard-nosed team seems to be in every game. N.O. has a potent offense with talent at QB, RB and WR, but a defense that the Jaguars can run on. Both coaches are good in my book. The deciding factors for me are these. Saints are at home, Reggie Bush is showing his capability as an every down back, Jaguar DT Marcus Straud may not play and Quinn Grey is not an attractive option for winning the game. The Saints will game plan to stop the Jag running game and win by 7 or more.
Pick: Saints (-3)
LIONS (-3) Broncos: RB Kevin Jones has been a favorite of mine since watching him play at VaTech. He brings a lot to the Lions and Mike Martz will feature him in his game planning. Kitna has not thrown a TD in a few games but expect that to change this week. Denver does not seem to be doing much of anything with a level of excellence. Detroit’s defense has been very good at taking the ball away this season. I like Detroit at home behind a 100+ yard effort from Jones and a few Kitna TD passes.
Pick: Detroit (-3)
Bengals (-1) BILLS: The Bills are two last second FGs away from being a 5-2 team. Juron has Buffalo playing very hard and with an emphasis on running the ball. Lynch will be the focal point again for the Bills’ offense and should see some holes behind a good O-line pushing against a soft Bengal D-line. The benching of Losman could prove a benefit. Sometimes one needs to go into the pits (in this case the pits is the bench) to find rejuvenation. Cincinnati has had trouble scoring in the red zone this season, leading to FGs rather than TDs, resulting in losses rather than victories. I had the Bengals winning the division this season. Not going to happen. Buffalo has momentum, is home and are playing a beaten down team that may be quitting soon.
Pick: Bills (+1)
Chargers (-7) VIKINGS: This was part of a post I wrote in regard to the Chris Chambers trade a few weeks back. “The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited.” The Chargers were my pick to win the AFC this year and I am sticking to it. Their defense is starting to play at the level they did last season and once LT gets going, their offense will be deadly. Jason Whitlock, an excellent writer for The Kansas City Star, has campaigned for Jeff George to be the Viking QB, giving the Vikings a deep threat so the box won’t be stacked against the impressive Adrian Peterson. Interesting idea, but one that will not manifest itself this week. This is a game San Diego will win big.
Pick: Chargers (-7)
BROWNS (-1.5) Seahawks: Not a fan at all of Seattle right now. Their offense is soft may be missing Deion Branch again this week. Let’s see if Alexander starts running with authority. Seattle has a decent defense led by LBs Tatupu and Peterson, but the Browns are home and playing with tremendous confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Then they have to play defense. I am not so sure they are getting better as the year wears on so this may be an opportunity for the Seahawks to score a few points. I like the Browns in this game because of their offense and because I think Seattle is not very good team at this point in the season.
Pick: Browns (-1.5)
Patriots ( -5) COLTS: The Colts have played the tougher schedule and are home. Payton Manning is no longer a deer in headlights in the big games, has won the Super Bowl and the last three head to head games against New England. His rapport with Wayne and Clark has grown from last season and Gonzalez is a WR who played in many big games during his time at Ohio State. We all know of the offensive output from the Patriots. A key for this game is to not let Brady have his customary 7 Mississippi count to throw. Interesting match-up will be LT Matt Light against Dwight Freeney. Look for Bob Sanders to throw a whollop on Moss and/or Welker early and often to try and set some type of tone and I would not be surprised if the Colts blitzed a bit more than they usually do. I like the Colts to win outright.
Pick: Colts ( +5)
RAIDERS (-3) Texans: I read a report the Andre Johnson may play 10-15 snaps this game. What’s the point? If he is not ready to go full throttle, he should not be in the game. If there are any questions as to whether or not his knee is ready, he should sit out this week and get ready for week 11 after the Texan bye next week. The Raiders don’t impress me and it seems that Jordan has been losing some carries to Justin Farges. If the Texans have any thoughts of a playoff push after the bye week, a win here is a must. I see them playing with urgency and I see their above average defense making some plays.
Pick: Texans (+3)
Cowboys (-3) EAGLES: The Cowboy offense is fun to watch, and I especially like when Barber is running with the ball. He needs to see the majority of snaps. The Cowboys are overrated because their defense is not that good right now. I see the Eagles playing well behind a getting healthier McNabb and Eagle MVP Brian Westbrook. Curtis and Brown need to make catches like they did last week for the rest of the year. The Eagle offense will get a boost from the return of L.J. Smith who is a red zone favorite for McNabb. The Linc will be a zoo for this one, tailgating starts at 10AM.
Pick: Eagles (+3)
STEELERS (-9) Ravens: Is this really the line? I know the line makers know a lot more than most of us but who would have put the line this high? I was thinking 4.5 or so. Well, who am I to go against the people in Vegas.
Pick: Steelers (-9)
Season 51 – 58 – 7
Home team in CAPS. Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post.
Redskins (-3.5) JETS: Kellen Clemens threw a pass last week, moving forward in the pocket, but had to use only his arm to get a good throw off because I remember a defender at his legs. The throw actually drew ohhhhhs from the crowd and a raise in octave from the announcer doing the play by play because of how strong the throw was. Clemens started the Baltimore game, and I only saw the last 8 or so minutes (included in those minutes were 3 dropped passes, 1 a definite tie the game TD), so I do not know any more about him than someone who watched the pre-season Jet games. Is he poised? Does he manage a game well? Is pressure kryptonite? We will find out. I do know that the fly route and 20 yard out will be part of the playbook once again. The benefit of arm strength is that the game-planning/play calling for the Jets need not be play-action based. Time and time again this season, in crucial situations, Mangini has shown no confidence in Jones and the O-line. As far as I am concerned, 3rd and under 3 yards, anywhere on the field, is 4 down territory this week for the Jets. All this being said, I like the Redskins to come out with emotion after last week, and a running game that will wear down the Jets.
Pick: Redskins (-3.5)
CHIEFS (-2.5) Packers: The Chiefs are 4-3 and the wins have come from a QB challenged Minnesota, turnover plagued San Diego, an underachieving Cincinnati and a bad Oakland team. The common denominator in all their wins is a solid defense. DE Jared Allen is a monster, will be in the All- Pro game every year type of player. The LB corp is very talented with Napoleon Harris, Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards. However, Green Bay has grown on me with solid play on both sides of the ball. If RB Ryan Grant can continue on his solid performance from last week, Green Bay has an excellent shot at this game, but also a deep playoff run. Favre is playing really well and the defense should be able to keep L.J. in check. As a note, the line has moved from KC -1 to KC -2.5.
Pick: Packers (+2.5)
BUCCANEERS (-3.5) Cardinals: Warner is still a good QB. Not as good as he was in the early part of this century, but still a better QB than 75% of the league starters. He is still accurate and quick with his reads. Arizona’s O-line is beat up, but under Russ Grimm’s tutelage, has become better every week. They are opening holes for Edge and throwing lanes for Warner. Coming out of the bye week, I like Arizona in the hot weather against a team that let Quinn Grey beat them last week.
Pick: Cardinals (+3.5)
TITANS (-4) Panthers: Titans come out to play every game. Titans still need to get a top notch receiver. In the mean time, I would like to see Justin Gage see more passes thrown his way. His size is impressive and I have seen him make a few tough catches this year. The Titans have a defense that should bottle up the Panther running game and I see Tennessee winning by 10. Carolina is a mediocre team right now.
Pick: Titans (-4)
FALCONS (-3.5) 49ers: Petrino really needs to give the ball to Norewood more than he gives the ball to Dunn. Warrick Dunn has had a great career, was a very versatile back, but has lost that quickness and burst that made him so effective for so many years. Norewood has quickness, speed, excellent receiving skills, big play potential and age on his side. With the Falcon record where it is, why not turn the starting job over to Norewood? The Niners are a disappointment this season. Frank Gore is gimpy and overall, the offense is playing poorly. Alex Smith is the starter once again, and if the O-line can give him some time, should be able to move the ball with throws to a talented receiving corp in Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis is a mismatch for most LB’s in the league and should get open this week. The Niner defense, young and athletic, has not played very well against the good offenses they have faced this season. The injury to OLB Manny Lawson was a big blow in week 2. I will put an if bet on this game.
Pick:
If Gore plays – Niners (+3.5)
If Gore does not play – Falcons (-3.5)
SAINTS (-3) Jaguars: Even with Quinn Grey at helm for the Jags, this is a tough game to call. The Jaguars are a hard-nosed team seems to be in every game. N.O. has a potent offense with talent at QB, RB and WR, but a defense that the Jaguars can run on. Both coaches are good in my book. The deciding factors for me are these. Saints are at home, Reggie Bush is showing his capability as an every down back, Jaguar DT Marcus Straud may not play and Quinn Grey is not an attractive option for winning the game. The Saints will game plan to stop the Jag running game and win by 7 or more.
Pick: Saints (-3)
LIONS (-3) Broncos: RB Kevin Jones has been a favorite of mine since watching him play at VaTech. He brings a lot to the Lions and Mike Martz will feature him in his game planning. Kitna has not thrown a TD in a few games but expect that to change this week. Denver does not seem to be doing much of anything with a level of excellence. Detroit’s defense has been very good at taking the ball away this season. I like Detroit at home behind a 100+ yard effort from Jones and a few Kitna TD passes.
Pick: Detroit (-3)
Bengals (-1) BILLS: The Bills are two last second FGs away from being a 5-2 team. Juron has Buffalo playing very hard and with an emphasis on running the ball. Lynch will be the focal point again for the Bills’ offense and should see some holes behind a good O-line pushing against a soft Bengal D-line. The benching of Losman could prove a benefit. Sometimes one needs to go into the pits (in this case the pits is the bench) to find rejuvenation. Cincinnati has had trouble scoring in the red zone this season, leading to FGs rather than TDs, resulting in losses rather than victories. I had the Bengals winning the division this season. Not going to happen. Buffalo has momentum, is home and are playing a beaten down team that may be quitting soon.
Pick: Bills (+1)
Chargers (-7) VIKINGS: This was part of a post I wrote in regard to the Chris Chambers trade a few weeks back. “The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited.” The Chargers were my pick to win the AFC this year and I am sticking to it. Their defense is starting to play at the level they did last season and once LT gets going, their offense will be deadly. Jason Whitlock, an excellent writer for The Kansas City Star, has campaigned for Jeff George to be the Viking QB, giving the Vikings a deep threat so the box won’t be stacked against the impressive Adrian Peterson. Interesting idea, but one that will not manifest itself this week. This is a game San Diego will win big.
Pick: Chargers (-7)
BROWNS (-1.5) Seahawks: Not a fan at all of Seattle right now. Their offense is soft may be missing Deion Branch again this week. Let’s see if Alexander starts running with authority. Seattle has a decent defense led by LBs Tatupu and Peterson, but the Browns are home and playing with tremendous confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Then they have to play defense. I am not so sure they are getting better as the year wears on so this may be an opportunity for the Seahawks to score a few points. I like the Browns in this game because of their offense and because I think Seattle is not very good team at this point in the season.
Pick: Browns (-1.5)
Patriots ( -5) COLTS: The Colts have played the tougher schedule and are home. Payton Manning is no longer a deer in headlights in the big games, has won the Super Bowl and the last three head to head games against New England. His rapport with Wayne and Clark has grown from last season and Gonzalez is a WR who played in many big games during his time at Ohio State. We all know of the offensive output from the Patriots. A key for this game is to not let Brady have his customary 7 Mississippi count to throw. Interesting match-up will be LT Matt Light against Dwight Freeney. Look for Bob Sanders to throw a whollop on Moss and/or Welker early and often to try and set some type of tone and I would not be surprised if the Colts blitzed a bit more than they usually do. I like the Colts to win outright.
Pick: Colts ( +5)
RAIDERS (-3) Texans: I read a report the Andre Johnson may play 10-15 snaps this game. What’s the point? If he is not ready to go full throttle, he should not be in the game. If there are any questions as to whether or not his knee is ready, he should sit out this week and get ready for week 11 after the Texan bye next week. The Raiders don’t impress me and it seems that Jordan has been losing some carries to Justin Farges. If the Texans have any thoughts of a playoff push after the bye week, a win here is a must. I see them playing with urgency and I see their above average defense making some plays.
Pick: Texans (+3)
Cowboys (-3) EAGLES: The Cowboy offense is fun to watch, and I especially like when Barber is running with the ball. He needs to see the majority of snaps. The Cowboys are overrated because their defense is not that good right now. I see the Eagles playing well behind a getting healthier McNabb and Eagle MVP Brian Westbrook. Curtis and Brown need to make catches like they did last week for the rest of the year. The Eagle offense will get a boost from the return of L.J. Smith who is a red zone favorite for McNabb. The Linc will be a zoo for this one, tailgating starts at 10AM.
Pick: Eagles (+3)
STEELERS (-9) Ravens: Is this really the line? I know the line makers know a lot more than most of us but who would have put the line this high? I was thinking 4.5 or so. Well, who am I to go against the people in Vegas.
Pick: Steelers (-9)
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