NFL Week 10 Picks

Last Week 10 – 4 – 0
Season 61 – 62 – 7

Spreads courtesy of the Thursday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Cowboys (-1.5) GIANTS: I am not sold on the Cowboy defense. The Giants come into this game with a confident O-line, a confident and bruising RB in Brandon Jacobs, and a maturing Eli Manning who will have mismatches at his disposal with Burress and Shockey. Manning has avoided bad interceptions the past few games and that trend needs to continue because the Cowboy offense is too good to give them extra possessions. The Giants are going to score on Dallas. If the Giant front 4 can be as effective this week as they have been since the second half of Week 3 against the Redskins, the Giants are going to win. I look for the Giants to play with emotion behind a big game from Jacobs and their front 4. Interesting match up will be how rookie CB Aaron Ross reacts if lined up against Owens.
Pick: Giants (+1.5)

TITANS (-4.5) Jaguars: Vince Young is playing way below his talent level. The Titans wins are from a great defense and coaching. Jeff Fischer is a top 5 NFL head coach and his “F.U.” attitude permeates the Titan roster. Albert Haynesworth is having a defensive MVP season and Kieth Bulluck is heading to the Pro Bowl again. They are at home against a Jaguars team that is not as good as their 5-3 record. Look for Vince Young to snap out of his cold spell. He steps up in the big games and at home against a division rival is a big game.
Pick: Titans (-4.5)

CHIEFS (-3) Broncos: After being out with a severe spine/neck injury, Priest Holmes makes his first start since October 2005. Holmes should be nowhere near a football field. Did the league clear him to play or is this a team doctor decision? Either way, the love of football or money is not worth the risk of being a wheelchair the rest of one’s life. Now, when he plays, I like his chances of regaining some of his form. He will never be the stud RB he was 4 years ago, but he has not taken a hit in 2 years so his body is fresh. 20 touches is a strong possibility. Denver is a mess on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs are playing with confidence, they are at home and playing for a playoff push. I am not a Herm Edwards fan at all, but he is doing a fine job with the Chiefs this season.
Pick: Chiefs (-3)

Bills (-3) DOLPHINS: Dick Jauron has the Bills playing well and are two last second FGs away from a 6-2 record. Jauron needs to stress that his team not look past the Dolphins this week with the Patriots looming next Sunday nigh because the Dolphins are still playing hard, searching for a win to keep them from going 0-fer-season. Marshawn Lynch is a talented runner playing behind a weekly improving O-line. J.P. Losman is re-connecting with the talented Lee Evans. Buffalo’s defense is playing very opportunistically and the Bills have had some big special team plays. This is a tough game for the Bills but I am staying with the hot hand.
Pick: Bills (-3)

PACKERS (-6) Vikings: The way Peterson is full speed one step after hitting the hole or making a cut is a beautiful thing to watch, and a big reason for his success. The Vikings will get a QB and receiver in the off season and be a real threat next season. The Packers are making me a believer and I do not see them losing at home to a team that is so one-dimensional. Green Bay is solid defensively and will keep Peterson from running over 120 yardsd, which should be enough to win. Gregg Jennings is becoming a Favre favorite as a long ball threat. He and Driver will both have a good game.
Pick: Packers (-6)

RAVENS (-4.5) Bengals: Have the Bengals given up? Maybe. I am not sure how much control Marvin Lewis has in the Bengal locker room and their defense is really bad. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot with a 4-4 record. A reservation I have against the Ravens this week is that both starting CBs, McCallister and Rolle, may not play, giving the Bengals an advantage in the throwing game. I have a suggestion for Billick, the “offensive genius”, run the ball 45 times against the Bengals and you will win. This guy is getting way too cute in his play-calling. Going 5-wide in the rain last weekend early in the game was a mistake. I am going with the Ravens here. I’ll take the home team that is playing for the play-offs and to avenge an embarrassing loss last week in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Ravens (-4.5)

Bears (-3) RAIDERS: Jamarcus Russell needs to start and get his feet wet. The Raiders will not make the playoffs and must use these last 8 games as on the job training for Russell. This game is a good opportunity for the Bears to get their defense in somewhat of an order. Bottom line for me is this. The Bears are the more talented team and need to win this game on the road to have a chance at the playoffs.
Pick: Bears (-3)

CARDINALS (-1) Lions: Strange things happen in the desert. The Cards are much better at home and will have starting RT Levi Brown back in the lineup. Detroit is playing well on offense and taking the ball away on defense. Tough game to call but I’ll take the desert team at home with something to prove on the offensive end against a dome team whose defense is playing above their heads.
Pick: Cardinals (-1)

SEAHAWKS (-10) 49ers: I do not trust Seattle giving 10 points to William Cullen Bryant H.S., never mind an NFL team. The Niners have to start scoring at some point, don’t they?
Pick: 49ers (+10)

Colts (-3.5) CHARGERS: The Chargers must come out Sunday night and show that they can win a big game. I see LaDainian Tomlinson being very assertive in practice this week, making sure the offense is prepared and letting the entire team know they are better than their 4-4 record. L.T. will get the ball 30+ times in this game. The Chargers are at home, need a win, need to play well on the national stage and are playing a Colt team that is ripe for an emotional let down after blowing a ten point lead last weekend with a bit over 9 minutes left. An injury to DE Louis Castillo is a big loss for the Chargers. A very talented and athletic player, he is out for about 6 weeks with an ankle injury. I read somewhere that Adrian Peterson had 49 yards at halftime last week, before Castillo was injured.
Pick: Chargers (+3.5)

STEELERS (-9.5) Browns: Pittsburgh is playing well on both sides of the ball. Rothlisberger is playing without the hesitation he showed last season while recovering from severe facial injury due to his motorcycle accident. He should not have been out on the field last season, especially the first 8 games or so, but this is the NFL, and they don’t care about if you are playing with a semi-broken face. Santonio Holmes, a talented and wiry WR, is starting to play up to his potential this season. The Browns defense is still not producing consistent stops but they may have received a momentum push in last week’s win over Seattle. Their stopping of Seattle on 4th and 1 in OT at midfields could be the play that will give their defensive unit a confidence boost heading into this game. Nine points seems a bit much considering the Browns are playing at such a high level offensively. The Browns win this game outright is Lewis gets 22+ carries.
Pick: Browns (+9.5)

PANTHERS (-4) Falcons: Neither team inspires much confidence but I am taking Atlanta for a few reasons. DeAngelo Hall is going to make amends for the first game these two teams played this season when he handed the Panthers the game with dumb penalties, the QB situation in Carolina is a mess, Atlanta has played better defense then their record would indicate and I do not think the team has quit on Bobby Patrino.
Pick: Falcons (+4)

REDSKINS (-3) Eagles:There are too many talented, veteran players on the Eagles to have this season turn into a total wash. Look for Jimmy Johnson to up the pressure on Campbell and stack the box to nullify Portis. McNabb’s job is tied to this game. If the Eagles lose, Kolb will be called on so Eagle management can see who they drafted.
Pick: Eagles (+3)

SAINTS (-11.5) Rams: I keep telling myself to pick the Rams, but then I look at their defense and think “no way”. The bye week helped the offense get healthy, but the defense is still a very weak unit. 12 points to cover is a lot, but N.O. is playing at a high level offensively a 31- 17 type of game is a possibility.
Pick: N.O. (-11.5)