NFL Week 9 Picks

Last Week 4 – 9 – 0
Season 51 – 58 – 7

Home team in CAPS. Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post.


Redskins (-3.5) JETS: Kellen Clemens threw a pass last week, moving forward in the pocket, but had to use only his arm to get a good throw off because I remember a defender at his legs. The throw actually drew ohhhhhs from the crowd and a raise in octave from the announcer doing the play by play because of how strong the throw was. Clemens started the Baltimore game, and I only saw the last 8 or so minutes (included in those minutes were 3 dropped passes, 1 a definite tie the game TD), so I do not know any more about him than someone who watched the pre-season Jet games. Is he poised? Does he manage a game well? Is pressure kryptonite? We will find out. I do know that the fly route and 20 yard out will be part of the playbook once again. The benefit of arm strength is that the game-planning/play calling for the Jets need not be play-action based. Time and time again this season, in crucial situations, Mangini has shown no confidence in Jones and the O-line. As far as I am concerned, 3rd and under 3 yards, anywhere on the field, is 4 down territory this week for the Jets. All this being said, I like the Redskins to come out with emotion after last week, and a running game that will wear down the Jets.
Pick: Redskins (-3.5)

CHIEFS (-2.5) Packers: The Chiefs are 4-3 and the wins have come from a QB challenged Minnesota, turnover plagued San Diego, an underachieving Cincinnati and a bad Oakland team. The common denominator in all their wins is a solid defense. DE Jared Allen is a monster, will be in the All- Pro game every year type of player. The LB corp is very talented with Napoleon Harris, Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards. However, Green Bay has grown on me with solid play on both sides of the ball. If RB Ryan Grant can continue on his solid performance from last week, Green Bay has an excellent shot at this game, but also a deep playoff run. Favre is playing really well and the defense should be able to keep L.J. in check. As a note, the line has moved from KC -1 to KC -2.5.
Pick: Packers (+2.5)

BUCCANEERS (-3.5) Cardinals: Warner is still a good QB. Not as good as he was in the early part of this century, but still a better QB than 75% of the league starters. He is still accurate and quick with his reads. Arizona’s O-line is beat up, but under Russ Grimm’s tutelage, has become better every week. They are opening holes for Edge and throwing lanes for Warner. Coming out of the bye week, I like Arizona in the hot weather against a team that let Quinn Grey beat them last week.
Pick: Cardinals (+3.5)

TITANS (-4) Panthers: Titans come out to play every game. Titans still need to get a top notch receiver. In the mean time, I would like to see Justin Gage see more passes thrown his way. His size is impressive and I have seen him make a few tough catches this year. The Titans have a defense that should bottle up the Panther running game and I see Tennessee winning by 10. Carolina is a mediocre team right now.
Pick: Titans (-4)

FALCONS (-3.5) 49ers: Petrino really needs to give the ball to Norewood more than he gives the ball to Dunn. Warrick Dunn has had a great career, was a very versatile back, but has lost that quickness and burst that made him so effective for so many years. Norewood has quickness, speed, excellent receiving skills, big play potential and age on his side. With the Falcon record where it is, why not turn the starting job over to Norewood? The Niners are a disappointment this season. Frank Gore is gimpy and overall, the offense is playing poorly. Alex Smith is the starter once again, and if the O-line can give him some time, should be able to move the ball with throws to a talented receiving corp in Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis is a mismatch for most LB’s in the league and should get open this week. The Niner defense, young and athletic, has not played very well against the good offenses they have faced this season. The injury to OLB Manny Lawson was a big blow in week 2. I will put an if bet on this game.
Pick:
If Gore plays – Niners (+3.5)
If Gore does not play – Falcons (-3.5)

SAINTS (-3) Jaguars: Even with Quinn Grey at helm for the Jags, this is a tough game to call. The Jaguars are a hard-nosed team seems to be in every game. N.O. has a potent offense with talent at QB, RB and WR, but a defense that the Jaguars can run on. Both coaches are good in my book. The deciding factors for me are these. Saints are at home, Reggie Bush is showing his capability as an every down back, Jaguar DT Marcus Straud may not play and Quinn Grey is not an attractive option for winning the game. The Saints will game plan to stop the Jag running game and win by 7 or more.
Pick: Saints (-3)

LIONS (-3) Broncos: RB Kevin Jones has been a favorite of mine since watching him play at VaTech. He brings a lot to the Lions and Mike Martz will feature him in his game planning. Kitna has not thrown a TD in a few games but expect that to change this week. Denver does not seem to be doing much of anything with a level of excellence. Detroit’s defense has been very good at taking the ball away this season. I like Detroit at home behind a 100+ yard effort from Jones and a few Kitna TD passes.
Pick: Detroit (-3)

Bengals (-1) BILLS: The Bills are two last second FGs away from being a 5-2 team. Juron has Buffalo playing very hard and with an emphasis on running the ball. Lynch will be the focal point again for the Bills’ offense and should see some holes behind a good O-line pushing against a soft Bengal D-line. The benching of Losman could prove a benefit. Sometimes one needs to go into the pits (in this case the pits is the bench) to find rejuvenation. Cincinnati has had trouble scoring in the red zone this season, leading to FGs rather than TDs, resulting in losses rather than victories. I had the Bengals winning the division this season. Not going to happen. Buffalo has momentum, is home and are playing a beaten down team that may be quitting soon.
Pick: Bills (+1)

Chargers (-7) VIKINGS: This was part of a post I wrote in regard to the Chris Chambers trade a few weeks back. “The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited.” The Chargers were my pick to win the AFC this year and I am sticking to it. Their defense is starting to play at the level they did last season and once LT gets going, their offense will be deadly. Jason Whitlock, an excellent writer for The Kansas City Star, has campaigned for Jeff George to be the Viking QB, giving the Vikings a deep threat so the box won’t be stacked against the impressive Adrian Peterson. Interesting idea, but one that will not manifest itself this week. This is a game San Diego will win big.
Pick: Chargers (-7)

BROWNS (-1.5) Seahawks: Not a fan at all of Seattle right now. Their offense is soft may be missing Deion Branch again this week. Let’s see if Alexander starts running with authority. Seattle has a decent defense led by LBs Tatupu and Peterson, but the Browns are home and playing with tremendous confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Then they have to play defense. I am not so sure they are getting better as the year wears on so this may be an opportunity for the Seahawks to score a few points. I like the Browns in this game because of their offense and because I think Seattle is not very good team at this point in the season.
Pick: Browns (-1.5)

Patriots ( -5) COLTS: The Colts have played the tougher schedule and are home. Payton Manning is no longer a deer in headlights in the big games, has won the Super Bowl and the last three head to head games against New England. His rapport with Wayne and Clark has grown from last season and Gonzalez is a WR who played in many big games during his time at Ohio State. We all know of the offensive output from the Patriots. A key for this game is to not let Brady have his customary 7 Mississippi count to throw. Interesting match-up will be LT Matt Light against Dwight Freeney. Look for Bob Sanders to throw a whollop on Moss and/or Welker early and often to try and set some type of tone and I would not be surprised if the Colts blitzed a bit more than they usually do. I like the Colts to win outright.
Pick: Colts ( +5)

RAIDERS (-3) Texans: I read a report the Andre Johnson may play 10-15 snaps this game. What’s the point? If he is not ready to go full throttle, he should not be in the game. If there are any questions as to whether or not his knee is ready, he should sit out this week and get ready for week 11 after the Texan bye next week. The Raiders don’t impress me and it seems that Jordan has been losing some carries to Justin Farges. If the Texans have any thoughts of a playoff push after the bye week, a win here is a must. I see them playing with urgency and I see their above average defense making some plays.
Pick: Texans (+3)

Cowboys (-3) EAGLES: The Cowboy offense is fun to watch, and I especially like when Barber is running with the ball. He needs to see the majority of snaps. The Cowboys are overrated because their defense is not that good right now. I see the Eagles playing well behind a getting healthier McNabb and Eagle MVP Brian Westbrook. Curtis and Brown need to make catches like they did last week for the rest of the year. The Eagle offense will get a boost from the return of L.J. Smith who is a red zone favorite for McNabb. The Linc will be a zoo for this one, tailgating starts at 10AM.
Pick: Eagles (+3)

STEELERS (-9) Ravens: Is this really the line? I know the line makers know a lot more than most of us but who would have put the line this high? I was thinking 4.5 or so. Well, who am I to go against the people in Vegas.
Pick: Steelers (-9)