NFL Week 15 Picks

Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Last Week: 10 – 6 – 0
Season: 99 – 100 – 9

Broncos (-1) TEXANS:
Pick: Texans (+1)

Bengals (-8.5) 49ers: You figure that the Bengals should be able to move the ball on a depleted 49er defense. Does a score line of 27- 13 seem possible, I think so, but what makes me think twice about taking the Bengals is Frank Gore. Anyone who watched him tear apart the Cardinals a couple weeks back saw why this young man has such a bright future ahead of him. His power and speed is impressive and I fear that he could take this game over as he did against Arizona. Then I see the QB for the Niners is going to be Shaun Hill, a 6th year pro from Maryland who led them to the Orange Bowl and a #10 BCS ranking in 2001-2002 season. At a time in the NFL when un-drafted or under regarded QBs seem to be excelling, maybe it is Shaun Hill’s time. Why not, I’m going with the Niners. The game is on the NFL network, so unless you are already in a bar with the channel or if you have fantasy playoff implications on the game, who is going to go out of their way for a Niner- Bengal game on a Saturday night.
Pick: Niners (+8.5)

PATRIOTS (-23.5) Jets: There are 4 instances this year that I can think of off the top of my head where Mangini failed to trust his offensive line and Thomas Jones on a 4th and very short at or near mid-field. Opening game against the Pats on the very first drive of the season, week 2 against the Bills on the 1st or second Jet drive, against the Giants and last week against the Browns. There are probably more. To continuously deny faith in your line and RB leads to failure when your team is at short yard/goaline situations and a run is called for. Now look at the Pats. Time and time again this season Belichick has eschewed a punt or FG on 4th and short to go for the TD or 1st down. This instills confidence, poise and a “we will get the yardage needed” attitude that permeates through an offense and the team as a whole. Now, in regards to this game and the spread. We all know of spygate, the bad blood between the organizations and the tendency for the Pats to beat down their opponents without mercy. Funny thing is that I am taking the Jets. This is based on a forecast for miserable conditions Sunday in Gillette Stadium and I still feel that the Jets are a quality team even though their record is awful. Mangini needs to strap on a pair and coach to win, without fear of media scrutiny if he decides to go for the TD/1st down rather than kick a FG/punt.
Pick: Jets (+23.5)

GIANTS (-4.5) Redskins: At home, a playoff bound team has to beat an inferior opponent. The Giants need to come out and beat the Redskins down, not for anyone to say, “oh look, the Giants really gave it to the Skins”, but for a confidence boost to a team that has struggled at home. The Giants must also prepare for the playoffs by getting their game plan strait. Run until they can not and then play-action. The Giant offensive line is playing at a very high level and with three competent backs, a run first offense is the way to go.
Pick: Giants (-4.5)

SAINTS (-3.5) Cardinals: Interesting game. Warner back indoors on turf throwing to a merry-go-round of talented receivers, Breese playing very well going against an athletic Arizona defense and both teams still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Cool stuff. I am taking Breese and the Saints based on Aaron Stecker giving the Saints a decent running game and Breese really playing well the last few weeks. If Coach Payton calls a normal play in the 4th Q against the Bucs a few weeks back, rather than the reverse, the Saints would have playoff destiny in their own hands rather than needing a Minnesota loss or two during the final three weeks.
Pick: Saints (-3.5)

BUCS (-13.5) Falcons: When the going gets tough, the scared tuck tail and run, huh Bobby Patrino. So fake. If you were a friend of this guy, would you trust him. “I’ll pick you up at 9 AM. Serious, we’ll go golfing and then we’ll grab some lunch. Yeah, yeah, they know me there, but I’ll make reservations anyway”. You’ll be standing out on your porch at 10 AM still getting his voice mail. I hope whoever is coaching this team now gives Jerious Norewood the ball 20 times. A very talented ball player, Norewood needs to get more than the 6-8 touches a game he has been getting. They named him the starter last week, was in there for the first play of the game, and then was taken out for the next 3 series’. The Bucs are a good team with Garcia in the lineup. He is expected to start so I will take the Bucs even though this is a too high of a spread. I would have guessed 9.5.
Pick: Bucs (-13.5)

Ravens (-3.5) DOLPHINS: In the name of Dan Marino, win a game. I am certain if the Dolphins asked Marino to start the last 3 games of the season he would. Someone explain to me why Kyle Boller is starting over Troy Smith in Baltimore? Smith came in at the end of last week’s Colt debacle and I said to myself, “where has this guy been all season”.
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)

BROWNS (-5.5) Bills: Playoff feel to this game. The Bills match up well on defense with the Brown playmakers. Terrence McGee is an underrated CB and will match up with Braylon Edwards. Strong side LB Angelo Crowell will try to contain Kellen Winslow who is playing at a very high level this season. If Crowell holds him to 80 yards or less it will be a good day. If the Bills can stop Jamal Lewis to 100 yards or less, they win the game. Buffalo has a toughness about them that has fueled their winning record. They do not get fazed by the opponent and have Marshawn Lynch back to get them going on offense. Trent Edwards has played well the last couple of weeks and seems to have a good amount of poise in the pocket. Browns have yet to develop a killer instinct which almost hurt them last week against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)

Packers (-10) RAMS: The Packers are a better team but the spread seems a bit high considering the Rams are starting Bulger and are a veteran team at home, playing for pride and some kind of redemption for this awful season.
Pick: Rams (+10)

STEELERS (-3.5) Jaguars: The Steelers have not impressed me as much as their record might dictate. Not sold on the Jaguars entering the season, my mind has changed the last 5 weeks or so. Gerrard is playing at a very high level and Fred Taylor looks young running the ball. Fred Taylor the most underrated back of my generation. The Jaguars are the tougher team and have a good bit of momentum going into this game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)

Seahawks (-7.5) PANTHERS: The Panthers are a very bad team and should not pose a threat to Seattle this week. Seattle, with a pass first game plan, has started clicking on offense. They will need to run the ball better in the playoffs to advance, especially when the weather is not conducive to throwing. This is a good game get Alexander some stats and a confidence boost. Alexander looks very hesitant at the line and seems to be avoiding contact. Morris has been the better runner this season.
Pick: Seattle (-7.5)

Titans (-4) CHIEFS: If the Titans are serious about the playoffs, a win in KC has to be accomplished. The Titans are the better team with a better coach. A concern for Tennessee has to be the inconsistent play of Vince Young. He looked real good against the Texans two weeks ago, but played a poor game last week against the Chargers. He must play well the next 3 weeks for the Titans to make the playoffs. These three games will be test of Vince Young’s mettle early in his career.
Pick: Titans (-4)

Colts (-10.5) RAIDERS: Payton Manning is really starting to connect with Anthony Gonzalez , who has picked up on their complicated offense very quickly. This is a great development for the playoffs. When Marvin Harrison comes back, it will give Manning four viable options to throw to: Wayne, Harrison, Clark and Gonzalez. Indi is too much team for the Raiders to handle and this should be a walk over for the Colts. Coach Kiffen, can we watch Russel in an expanded role the last three weeks?

CHARGERS (-10) Lions: It’s really not that hard to play call for the Chargers. Run, Run, Run, Run, play-action, run, run, run, play-action, run, run, run, run, play-action. Norv, you have the best back in football with a competent back-up and a very good O-line, run the ball. I think this line is way too high, but after last week’s awful loss to the Cowboys, the Lions may be ready to give up.
Pick: Chargers (-10)

COWBOYS (-10.5) Eagles: The Cowboys have too many weapons for any defense to handle. Witten is a mismatch against the Eagle LBs and T.O. will be fired up. Jones and Barber will be able to run the ball on the Eagles. The question is will the Eagles score enough to cover? Even with Westbrook playing at an MVP level, I do not see the Eagles keeping up with the Cowboys in Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)

VIKINGS (-10) Chicago: Is this really the spread? Have the Bears fallen from grace this fast? Are the Vikings this good? The line-makers know more than me.
Pick: Vikings (-10)