NFL Week 16 Picks

Last Week 9 – 7 – 0
Season 108 – 107 – 9

Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Post. HOME Team in CAPS.

Pittsburgh (-7) ST. LOUIS:
Pick: Steelers (-7)

Dallas (-13) CAROLINA:
Pick: Dallas (-13)

Cleveland (-2.5) CINNCINNATTI: This is a big game for Romeo Crennel. A lot of people wonder how good of a head coach he is and this is a game that the Browns must be well prepared for. Crennel is regarded as a defensive minded coach. Cincinnati, with their lousy record and bad year, still have a very capable offense and would love to keep an in-state division rival out of the playoffs. Crennel has to get the right game plan established to limit the Bengal playmakers and put his defensive players in the right positions to make plays. Cleveland will move the ball behind a determined and angry Jemal Lewis.
Pick: Cleveland (-2.5)

Green Bay (-8.5) CHICAGO: A lot of pride still left on the Chicago defensive side of the ball. However, injuries have made the talent level go down from elite to average. Ryan Grant is being a bully at running back, giving the Packers much needed balance heading into the playoffs. As long as Favre keeps with what has worked this season, that being a short, controlled passing attack, only throwing deep when it is there, the Pack should be able to move the ball. Green Bay is playing well on defense, but Al Harris does not deserve a Pro Bowl spot at CB. Antrell Rolle of Arizona has had a tremendous year and deserved a roster spot over Al Harris. Chicago is a horrible offensive football team right now. Spread seems about 2 points too high considering they are in Chicago, but Green Bay is still gunning for home field throughout the playoffs and seem well prepared every week.
Pick: Green Bay (-8.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Houston: My heart is telling me Houston, but my mind is telling me Indi. I am going with Houston because this is their Super Bowl and they are playing well on both sides of the ball. Dungy is known to take the foot off the gas late in the season and the slowing down may start in the 2nd half of this game.
Pick: Houston (+7)

LIONS (-4.5) Chiefs: No gambler should come any where near this game. Two teams that are very inconsistent, with questionable coaching and both teams have probably thrown in the towel on the season. Detroit has more talent on offense and they are at home so I’ll take them, I guess.
Pick: Detroit (-4.5)

Giants (-2.5) BILLS: The Giant play- calling last week caused me to yell at the TV on a far too consistent basis. Example, it’s 22- 10, Giants have the ball at the Skins 20 yard line, early in the 4th Q. Jacobs has over 100 yards and the offensive line is moving the Skins d-line. Incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG were the next 4 plays. Awful. Manning put the ball in the air 51 times on a day that begged for Jacobs to run 35 times. Jacobs had 25 carries for 130 yards and should have had more. Will the Giants have the same approach this week in Buffalo? I don’t know and I do not care. Buffalo has been a tough team to beat the entire year and Dick Juron seems to have the players and the game plan ready every week, something that can not be said for the Giants and their coaching staff. Add in no Shockey and a hobbled Burress, the Giants are in trouble. Unless they give the ball to Jacobs a lot more than they put the ball in the air, the Giant playoff hopes will be in the balance next week against the Pats.
Pick: Bills (+2.5)

TITANS (-8.5) Jets: Young played a decent game last week, not doing anything spectacular, but more importantly, not doing anything to lose the game. The game plan for Tennessee will revolve around a ball control ground game. It will probably work, but watch how well MLB David Harris plays this game. The rookie out of Michigan is having a fine year and always seems to be in on the tackle. The Jets are not as bad as their record and I do not think they should be a 8.5 point underdog. However, there seems to be a play or two that change momentum in every game, and where those swings were going the Jet way last year, they seem to be going against them this year. The Titans are at home and still looking for a playoff birth.
Pick: Titans (-8.5)

PATRIOTS (-22) Dolphins: Tuna is coming to Miami!! Let’s see how long he hangs out. Bill Parcells loves leaving organizations before his contract is expired, but somehow gets a pass every time he does. From Wikipedia, “In 1992, Parcells made a handshake agreement to become head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the last minute, Parcells opted not to take the job. Parcells did not feel the situation was right for him at that time. Tampa Bay owner Hugh Culverhouse said, "I feel like I've been jilted at the altar." Parcells left the Patriots after disagreements with owner Robert Kraft; Parcells felt he did not have enough input into player personnel decisions.” He left the Cowboys after a good year in 2007 and could have been guiding them now. No one is sure why he did not come back with the Cowboys but it was probably money. Look, I think he is a good coach, however, he now has control of an entire organization regarding personnel and coaching hires, but has little experience with these responsibilities. Given his age and past record of leaving teams when things are not totally going his way, it will be interesting to see how long he stays.
Pick: Patriots (-22)

JAGUARS (-13) Raiders: I am not sure who replaces Willie Parker in the Pro Bowl, but it better be Fred Taylor. The jaguars are playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball and David Gerrard is having a fantastic season. He made one bad pass last week against the Steelers, a pick off early in the 4th Q. He has a strong, accurate arm, is poised in the pocket, and is the QB Jacksonville has been looking for for four years. Del Rio has the Jags believing they are an elite team and Jacksonville will continue to play that way against an inferior team this week.
Pick: Jags (-13)

SAINTS (-3) Eagles: I remember watching Marques Colston last season thinking, “he’s fast and has decent hands, but is he tough, will he make the catch over the middle as he is getting hit?” Colston has continuously made the tough catches this season and is blossoming into an elite WR. Drew Breese is making the other receivers around Colston into better targets than they really are, the same way Donovan McNabb made all the garbage Philly receivers better early in his career. New Orleans is lacking on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is clicking with a determined Aaron Stecker giving NO a between the tackle, north-south runner. New Orleans is at home and still looking at a playoff spot if things fall the right way.
Pick: NO (-3)

VIKINGS (-6.5) Redskins: Still don’t understand why Peterson is playing. He tears a ligament in his knee and it is deemed “minor”? The doctors know a lot more than I do, but I hope they are not playing around this young man’s future.
Pick: Vikings (-6.5)

CARDINALS (-10) Falcons: I officially announce my candidacy for the vacant Atlanta Falcon head coaching position. I’ll take the job at $150,000 a year for 5 years and I promise not to quit. When is the last time Arizona covered a 10 point spread as a favorite? When was the last time they were a 10 point favorite?
Pick: Falcons (+10)

SEAHAWKS (-11) Ravens: Shawn Alexander looks scared to get hit. All season he has looked pitiful and should not be a first string RB for this or any other team. Mourice Morris has shown toughness all season and deserves first team reps. Brian Billick officially lost his scrotum last weekend when he kicked the FG at the end of regulation instead of going for the TD from 2 feet out. I hope Troy Smith starts this game for Baltimore, he deserves the nod over a season long ineffective Kyle Boller.
Pick: Seahawks (-11)

Buccaneers (-5.5) 49RS: The Bucs are a division winner and need to beat up on a team looking towards next season.
Pick: Bucs (-5.5)

CHARGERS (-8.5) Broncos: I picked the Chargers as the AFC representative and I am sticking with it. If San Diego practices a run first then play-action offensive game plan, they can beat the Colts and the Patriots. Underrated DE Luis Castillo is close to being 100% and will give the Chargers defense a big boost when he gets back from an early season ankle injury.
Pick: Chargers (-8.5)