NFL Week 17

Last Week 6 – 9 – 0
Season 114 – 116 – 9

Due to the nature of the NFL in it’s final week, I will not be making picks against the spread. Many teams will undoubtedly play their 2nd and even 3rd string personnel this week and there is no way for me to know who is playing or how long they will play. Here are some thought going into the final week of the NFL regular season.

 The Giants need to look out for #1 and not worry themselves with beating the Patriots. Fifteen other weeks this year, teams have failed in beating the Pats and there is no good reason I have heard yet to warrant the Giants going full boar in hopes of derailing New England’s perfect season. With an undefeated regular season, the Pats must still win what will be two tough AFC playoff games and then the Super Bowl, assuming they make it that far. The Giants owe nothing to nobody but themselves and their playoff health. The thought of losing for the playoffs an injury prone Jacobs, a key O-line starter or a top defensive player is enough to convince me that the Giants should go with their second unit for most of the game and get ready for an underrated Buccaneer team next week. Furthermore, who really thinks the Giants will beat the Patriots with a full lineup anyway.

 I would like to see the Jaguars play their first string for the first half in their game against Houston. I would sit Fred Taylor for the game because of his past muscle ailments. The Jaguars are in a grove, showing great offensive rhythm that they will need next week in the Wild Card round. Houston’s tough and fast defense will be a great warm-up for next week against their probable opponent, the Steelers.

 Of the three teams, Washington, Minnesota and N.O., vying for the final NFC playoff spot, N.O would be the most entertaining and I will be rooting for them to make it in after starting 0-4.

 Tony Dungy has a history of resting his starters when he knows his playoff fate. He also has learned that too much time away from game action can cause rust and lack of offensive rhythm. Do not be surprised if he keeps Manning and the 1st unit in for the first half with the exception of Addai sitting out the entire game. There is also motivation to keep a divisional opponent out of the playoffs, which will happen if Cleveland beats S.F. and the Titans lose to the Colts.

 I am rooting for the Titans to make it over the Browns based on this: Romeo Crennel looks scared when the game is tight. Staying home last weekend, I got to watch Cleveland lose to Cincinnati and every time the camera panned over to Crennel, he looked nervous, yet expressionless. I do not see this guy having his team prepared for a road playoff game. Tennessee’s Fischer is a proven winner, a leader who has made his teams better with his coaching and will have his team ready to go next week if they make it there.

 Herm Edwards is back at the Meadowlands. Big deal.

 This could be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and I hope it is. This man gets no respect for doing so much in his career with so little to work with. Name me another QB who has been better than McNabb at bringing out the best in mediocre WRs. It is not a coincidence the year management gave him a competent WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. I can’t wait for Philly fans to clamor for a new QB for the next 5 years as their team disintegrates. Hopefully I am wrong and Kolb turns into a stud QB, but a talent like Mcnabb’s only comes around once in a while and Philly never game him the recognition he deserves.

NFL Week 16 Picks

Last Week 9 – 7 – 0
Season 108 – 107 – 9

Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Post. HOME Team in CAPS.

Pittsburgh (-7) ST. LOUIS:
Pick: Steelers (-7)

Dallas (-13) CAROLINA:
Pick: Dallas (-13)

Cleveland (-2.5) CINNCINNATTI: This is a big game for Romeo Crennel. A lot of people wonder how good of a head coach he is and this is a game that the Browns must be well prepared for. Crennel is regarded as a defensive minded coach. Cincinnati, with their lousy record and bad year, still have a very capable offense and would love to keep an in-state division rival out of the playoffs. Crennel has to get the right game plan established to limit the Bengal playmakers and put his defensive players in the right positions to make plays. Cleveland will move the ball behind a determined and angry Jemal Lewis.
Pick: Cleveland (-2.5)

Green Bay (-8.5) CHICAGO: A lot of pride still left on the Chicago defensive side of the ball. However, injuries have made the talent level go down from elite to average. Ryan Grant is being a bully at running back, giving the Packers much needed balance heading into the playoffs. As long as Favre keeps with what has worked this season, that being a short, controlled passing attack, only throwing deep when it is there, the Pack should be able to move the ball. Green Bay is playing well on defense, but Al Harris does not deserve a Pro Bowl spot at CB. Antrell Rolle of Arizona has had a tremendous year and deserved a roster spot over Al Harris. Chicago is a horrible offensive football team right now. Spread seems about 2 points too high considering they are in Chicago, but Green Bay is still gunning for home field throughout the playoffs and seem well prepared every week.
Pick: Green Bay (-8.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Houston: My heart is telling me Houston, but my mind is telling me Indi. I am going with Houston because this is their Super Bowl and they are playing well on both sides of the ball. Dungy is known to take the foot off the gas late in the season and the slowing down may start in the 2nd half of this game.
Pick: Houston (+7)

LIONS (-4.5) Chiefs: No gambler should come any where near this game. Two teams that are very inconsistent, with questionable coaching and both teams have probably thrown in the towel on the season. Detroit has more talent on offense and they are at home so I’ll take them, I guess.
Pick: Detroit (-4.5)

Giants (-2.5) BILLS: The Giant play- calling last week caused me to yell at the TV on a far too consistent basis. Example, it’s 22- 10, Giants have the ball at the Skins 20 yard line, early in the 4th Q. Jacobs has over 100 yards and the offensive line is moving the Skins d-line. Incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG were the next 4 plays. Awful. Manning put the ball in the air 51 times on a day that begged for Jacobs to run 35 times. Jacobs had 25 carries for 130 yards and should have had more. Will the Giants have the same approach this week in Buffalo? I don’t know and I do not care. Buffalo has been a tough team to beat the entire year and Dick Juron seems to have the players and the game plan ready every week, something that can not be said for the Giants and their coaching staff. Add in no Shockey and a hobbled Burress, the Giants are in trouble. Unless they give the ball to Jacobs a lot more than they put the ball in the air, the Giant playoff hopes will be in the balance next week against the Pats.
Pick: Bills (+2.5)

TITANS (-8.5) Jets: Young played a decent game last week, not doing anything spectacular, but more importantly, not doing anything to lose the game. The game plan for Tennessee will revolve around a ball control ground game. It will probably work, but watch how well MLB David Harris plays this game. The rookie out of Michigan is having a fine year and always seems to be in on the tackle. The Jets are not as bad as their record and I do not think they should be a 8.5 point underdog. However, there seems to be a play or two that change momentum in every game, and where those swings were going the Jet way last year, they seem to be going against them this year. The Titans are at home and still looking for a playoff birth.
Pick: Titans (-8.5)

PATRIOTS (-22) Dolphins: Tuna is coming to Miami!! Let’s see how long he hangs out. Bill Parcells loves leaving organizations before his contract is expired, but somehow gets a pass every time he does. From Wikipedia, “In 1992, Parcells made a handshake agreement to become head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the last minute, Parcells opted not to take the job. Parcells did not feel the situation was right for him at that time. Tampa Bay owner Hugh Culverhouse said, "I feel like I've been jilted at the altar." Parcells left the Patriots after disagreements with owner Robert Kraft; Parcells felt he did not have enough input into player personnel decisions.” He left the Cowboys after a good year in 2007 and could have been guiding them now. No one is sure why he did not come back with the Cowboys but it was probably money. Look, I think he is a good coach, however, he now has control of an entire organization regarding personnel and coaching hires, but has little experience with these responsibilities. Given his age and past record of leaving teams when things are not totally going his way, it will be interesting to see how long he stays.
Pick: Patriots (-22)

JAGUARS (-13) Raiders: I am not sure who replaces Willie Parker in the Pro Bowl, but it better be Fred Taylor. The jaguars are playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball and David Gerrard is having a fantastic season. He made one bad pass last week against the Steelers, a pick off early in the 4th Q. He has a strong, accurate arm, is poised in the pocket, and is the QB Jacksonville has been looking for for four years. Del Rio has the Jags believing they are an elite team and Jacksonville will continue to play that way against an inferior team this week.
Pick: Jags (-13)

SAINTS (-3) Eagles: I remember watching Marques Colston last season thinking, “he’s fast and has decent hands, but is he tough, will he make the catch over the middle as he is getting hit?” Colston has continuously made the tough catches this season and is blossoming into an elite WR. Drew Breese is making the other receivers around Colston into better targets than they really are, the same way Donovan McNabb made all the garbage Philly receivers better early in his career. New Orleans is lacking on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is clicking with a determined Aaron Stecker giving NO a between the tackle, north-south runner. New Orleans is at home and still looking at a playoff spot if things fall the right way.
Pick: NO (-3)

VIKINGS (-6.5) Redskins: Still don’t understand why Peterson is playing. He tears a ligament in his knee and it is deemed “minor”? The doctors know a lot more than I do, but I hope they are not playing around this young man’s future.
Pick: Vikings (-6.5)

CARDINALS (-10) Falcons: I officially announce my candidacy for the vacant Atlanta Falcon head coaching position. I’ll take the job at $150,000 a year for 5 years and I promise not to quit. When is the last time Arizona covered a 10 point spread as a favorite? When was the last time they were a 10 point favorite?
Pick: Falcons (+10)

SEAHAWKS (-11) Ravens: Shawn Alexander looks scared to get hit. All season he has looked pitiful and should not be a first string RB for this or any other team. Mourice Morris has shown toughness all season and deserves first team reps. Brian Billick officially lost his scrotum last weekend when he kicked the FG at the end of regulation instead of going for the TD from 2 feet out. I hope Troy Smith starts this game for Baltimore, he deserves the nod over a season long ineffective Kyle Boller.
Pick: Seahawks (-11)

Buccaneers (-5.5) 49RS: The Bucs are a division winner and need to beat up on a team looking towards next season.
Pick: Bucs (-5.5)

CHARGERS (-8.5) Broncos: I picked the Chargers as the AFC representative and I am sticking with it. If San Diego practices a run first then play-action offensive game plan, they can beat the Colts and the Patriots. Underrated DE Luis Castillo is close to being 100% and will give the Chargers defense a big boost when he gets back from an early season ankle injury.
Pick: Chargers (-8.5)

NFl Week 16 Saturday Night

Dallas (-10.5) CAROLINA: Dallas is vying for home field throughout the NFC playoffs so they must come into this game with a kill mentality. Romo had a stinker last week but his thumb injury contributed to some of his throwing problems. Romo participated fully in practice on Friday. To talk of his new girlfriend as a distraction is fodder for pundits with little to talk about. I am certain that last weekend was not the first game he had a hot girlfriend watching him play. Dallas will move the ball against Carolina. This is a must win, get playoff ready game for Dallas and have too much talent on offense for the Panthers to keep up with for 60 minutes.
Pick: Dallas (-10.5)

NFL Week 16 Thursday Night

Steelers (-7.5) RAMS: Pittsburgh needs to get their act together before the playoffs start. The offense was inconsistent and Ben Rothlisberger looked weak last week against the Jags until the 4th quarter. If not for a brutal Jaguar punt in the 2nd Q and bad play calling by Del Rio when they were up 22-7 in the 4th Q, the score would not have been as close as the final 29-22 tally. Polumalu played an incredible game last week. One play in particular stands out. Gerrard scrambled out of the pocket on 3rd down late in the 1st Q and appeared to be heading for a first down. Polumalu seemed to come from nowhere to stop Gerrard short of the 1st down with a perfect ankle tackle. The closing speed to Gerrard on the overhead replay was impressive. The Rams are not the pushovers they were from the beginning of the season so this is not an easy game to pick. Jackson has the ability to take a game over and Bulger can still get the ball to Holt and Bruce. Damn shame I can’t watch this game from the comfort of my couch.
Pick: Steelers (-7.5)

NFL Week 15 Picks

Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Last Week: 10 – 6 – 0
Season: 99 – 100 – 9

Broncos (-1) TEXANS:
Pick: Texans (+1)

Bengals (-8.5) 49ers: You figure that the Bengals should be able to move the ball on a depleted 49er defense. Does a score line of 27- 13 seem possible, I think so, but what makes me think twice about taking the Bengals is Frank Gore. Anyone who watched him tear apart the Cardinals a couple weeks back saw why this young man has such a bright future ahead of him. His power and speed is impressive and I fear that he could take this game over as he did against Arizona. Then I see the QB for the Niners is going to be Shaun Hill, a 6th year pro from Maryland who led them to the Orange Bowl and a #10 BCS ranking in 2001-2002 season. At a time in the NFL when un-drafted or under regarded QBs seem to be excelling, maybe it is Shaun Hill’s time. Why not, I’m going with the Niners. The game is on the NFL network, so unless you are already in a bar with the channel or if you have fantasy playoff implications on the game, who is going to go out of their way for a Niner- Bengal game on a Saturday night.
Pick: Niners (+8.5)

PATRIOTS (-23.5) Jets: There are 4 instances this year that I can think of off the top of my head where Mangini failed to trust his offensive line and Thomas Jones on a 4th and very short at or near mid-field. Opening game against the Pats on the very first drive of the season, week 2 against the Bills on the 1st or second Jet drive, against the Giants and last week against the Browns. There are probably more. To continuously deny faith in your line and RB leads to failure when your team is at short yard/goaline situations and a run is called for. Now look at the Pats. Time and time again this season Belichick has eschewed a punt or FG on 4th and short to go for the TD or 1st down. This instills confidence, poise and a “we will get the yardage needed” attitude that permeates through an offense and the team as a whole. Now, in regards to this game and the spread. We all know of spygate, the bad blood between the organizations and the tendency for the Pats to beat down their opponents without mercy. Funny thing is that I am taking the Jets. This is based on a forecast for miserable conditions Sunday in Gillette Stadium and I still feel that the Jets are a quality team even though their record is awful. Mangini needs to strap on a pair and coach to win, without fear of media scrutiny if he decides to go for the TD/1st down rather than kick a FG/punt.
Pick: Jets (+23.5)

GIANTS (-4.5) Redskins: At home, a playoff bound team has to beat an inferior opponent. The Giants need to come out and beat the Redskins down, not for anyone to say, “oh look, the Giants really gave it to the Skins”, but for a confidence boost to a team that has struggled at home. The Giants must also prepare for the playoffs by getting their game plan strait. Run until they can not and then play-action. The Giant offensive line is playing at a very high level and with three competent backs, a run first offense is the way to go.
Pick: Giants (-4.5)

SAINTS (-3.5) Cardinals: Interesting game. Warner back indoors on turf throwing to a merry-go-round of talented receivers, Breese playing very well going against an athletic Arizona defense and both teams still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Cool stuff. I am taking Breese and the Saints based on Aaron Stecker giving the Saints a decent running game and Breese really playing well the last few weeks. If Coach Payton calls a normal play in the 4th Q against the Bucs a few weeks back, rather than the reverse, the Saints would have playoff destiny in their own hands rather than needing a Minnesota loss or two during the final three weeks.
Pick: Saints (-3.5)

BUCS (-13.5) Falcons: When the going gets tough, the scared tuck tail and run, huh Bobby Patrino. So fake. If you were a friend of this guy, would you trust him. “I’ll pick you up at 9 AM. Serious, we’ll go golfing and then we’ll grab some lunch. Yeah, yeah, they know me there, but I’ll make reservations anyway”. You’ll be standing out on your porch at 10 AM still getting his voice mail. I hope whoever is coaching this team now gives Jerious Norewood the ball 20 times. A very talented ball player, Norewood needs to get more than the 6-8 touches a game he has been getting. They named him the starter last week, was in there for the first play of the game, and then was taken out for the next 3 series’. The Bucs are a good team with Garcia in the lineup. He is expected to start so I will take the Bucs even though this is a too high of a spread. I would have guessed 9.5.
Pick: Bucs (-13.5)

Ravens (-3.5) DOLPHINS: In the name of Dan Marino, win a game. I am certain if the Dolphins asked Marino to start the last 3 games of the season he would. Someone explain to me why Kyle Boller is starting over Troy Smith in Baltimore? Smith came in at the end of last week’s Colt debacle and I said to myself, “where has this guy been all season”.
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)

BROWNS (-5.5) Bills: Playoff feel to this game. The Bills match up well on defense with the Brown playmakers. Terrence McGee is an underrated CB and will match up with Braylon Edwards. Strong side LB Angelo Crowell will try to contain Kellen Winslow who is playing at a very high level this season. If Crowell holds him to 80 yards or less it will be a good day. If the Bills can stop Jamal Lewis to 100 yards or less, they win the game. Buffalo has a toughness about them that has fueled their winning record. They do not get fazed by the opponent and have Marshawn Lynch back to get them going on offense. Trent Edwards has played well the last couple of weeks and seems to have a good amount of poise in the pocket. Browns have yet to develop a killer instinct which almost hurt them last week against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)

Packers (-10) RAMS: The Packers are a better team but the spread seems a bit high considering the Rams are starting Bulger and are a veteran team at home, playing for pride and some kind of redemption for this awful season.
Pick: Rams (+10)

STEELERS (-3.5) Jaguars: The Steelers have not impressed me as much as their record might dictate. Not sold on the Jaguars entering the season, my mind has changed the last 5 weeks or so. Gerrard is playing at a very high level and Fred Taylor looks young running the ball. Fred Taylor the most underrated back of my generation. The Jaguars are the tougher team and have a good bit of momentum going into this game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)

Seahawks (-7.5) PANTHERS: The Panthers are a very bad team and should not pose a threat to Seattle this week. Seattle, with a pass first game plan, has started clicking on offense. They will need to run the ball better in the playoffs to advance, especially when the weather is not conducive to throwing. This is a good game get Alexander some stats and a confidence boost. Alexander looks very hesitant at the line and seems to be avoiding contact. Morris has been the better runner this season.
Pick: Seattle (-7.5)

Titans (-4) CHIEFS: If the Titans are serious about the playoffs, a win in KC has to be accomplished. The Titans are the better team with a better coach. A concern for Tennessee has to be the inconsistent play of Vince Young. He looked real good against the Texans two weeks ago, but played a poor game last week against the Chargers. He must play well the next 3 weeks for the Titans to make the playoffs. These three games will be test of Vince Young’s mettle early in his career.
Pick: Titans (-4)

Colts (-10.5) RAIDERS: Payton Manning is really starting to connect with Anthony Gonzalez , who has picked up on their complicated offense very quickly. This is a great development for the playoffs. When Marvin Harrison comes back, it will give Manning four viable options to throw to: Wayne, Harrison, Clark and Gonzalez. Indi is too much team for the Raiders to handle and this should be a walk over for the Colts. Coach Kiffen, can we watch Russel in an expanded role the last three weeks?

CHARGERS (-10) Lions: It’s really not that hard to play call for the Chargers. Run, Run, Run, Run, play-action, run, run, run, play-action, run, run, run, run, play-action. Norv, you have the best back in football with a competent back-up and a very good O-line, run the ball. I think this line is way too high, but after last week’s awful loss to the Cowboys, the Lions may be ready to give up.
Pick: Chargers (-10)

COWBOYS (-10.5) Eagles: The Cowboys have too many weapons for any defense to handle. Witten is a mismatch against the Eagle LBs and T.O. will be fired up. Jones and Barber will be able to run the ball on the Eagles. The question is will the Eagles score enough to cover? Even with Westbrook playing at an MVP level, I do not see the Eagles keeping up with the Cowboys in Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)

VIKINGS (-10) Chicago: Is this really the spread? Have the Bears fallen from grace this fast? Are the Vikings this good? The line-makers know more than me.
Pick: Vikings (-10)

NFL Week 15 Thursday Night

Denver (-1) HOUSTON: If Andre Johnson plays the seven games he missed, the Texans would have 9 wins and playoff destiny in their own hands. Denver and Houston both stand at 6-7, and the only way either will make the playoffs is to run the table and then hope that Cleveland, Tennessee and Buffalo fade down the stretch. This is a lot to ask for so it seems that both teams are playing for pride rather than a playoff push. Sage Rosenfels will start for Houston. He has looked very good in this offense when pressed into action and should be able to move the ball. Houston is the better all round football team and has played with more consistency than Denver. Add to that home field and a defense playing better by the week, the Texans should be victorious.
Pick: Houston (+1)

Liverpool vs. Marseille

Liverpool will visit Marseille this evening with the winner moving on to the knockout stage of this year's Champion's League Tournament. Team pride is at stake here, but also millions of dollars in revenue that goes with the knockout stage. Liverpool's manager Rafa Benitez rested Torres, Gerrard and Carragher this past weekend in a 3-1 loss to Reading to have them fresh for this match. "Right now, the Champions League is the most important competition for us," said Benitez. "We were really disappointed to lose the Reading game, but we're only thinking about this one and finding the right solutions."

The result in Anfield went Marseille's way when they played in October, and the French side will be ready to go, "We won't set out looking for a draw," said coach Erik Gerets. "Our preparations have been normal but, from the first second on Tuesday, the players will know they are in a special game, more intense than in the league. It's the match the fans have been waiting for and there'll be adrenalin aplenty on the pitch. We won't freeze, we'll be like lions." Marseille has played well of late, but the competition they have faced pales in comparison to the class that Liverpool will show today.

Liverpool is built for Champion's League play. As clear favorites to win the group, Liverpool played with a complacency that resulted in 2 losses from 3 games to start the group stage. In desperation mode, they have since beaten Bestikas and Porto handily and have knockout stage entry one win away. Liverpool is the better team, have much more experience in the big games, will be the aggressors and will hand Marseille a drubbing today.

NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week 5 - 11 - 0
Season 89 - 94 - 9

Washington -3
Eagles -3
Browns -3
Jaguars -10.5
Lions +10.5
Dolphins +7
Packers -10.5
Patriots -10.5
Chargers pk
Bengals -6.5
Texans +3
Cardinals +7
Vikings -7
Chiefs +6.5
Ravens +9
Falcons +4

Redskins defeat Bears

I missed the first half, and the two QB injuries that happened. I feel for both of these men and wish them the best with their knees. Jason Campbell is a tremendous talent. Watching him, you can see his poise and confidence in the pocket. He has a great arm and can run with the ball. He has made some rookie mistakes and needs to work on his accuracy, but Gibbs made a correct assessment of Campbell's talents when he moved up in the draft a few years ago to get him.

What was Lovie Smith doing kicking the FG with 7 minutes to go and down by 7 points? The FG turned a 1 TD game into ..... a 1 TD game. You are at the 4 yard line, go for the TD. If unsuccessful, you at least have the Bears pinned deep in their territory. A very bad decision. I also did not agree with the play calling on 2nd and 3rd down before the ill- advised FG. I am not a huge fan of the fade route , but if you are going to try it twice, make sure one of them heads into the direction of Bernard Berrian. Both fades were to Greg Olsen, who is bigger than the CB covering him, but will not out-jump the CB.

Week 14 Thursday Night Game

WASHINGTON (-3) Chicago: If you are betting this game, you really have a problem. How do you analyze a game between two underachieving teams, who both lost winnable games at home last week, and are now playing on short rest? I am going with the Redskins here because they are at home and I think Jason Campbell is a better QB than the Bear tandem of Grossman and Griese. The Redskins should get a running game going against the Bears and Washington has enough on defense to keep the Bear offense in check. Kick the ball away from Hester on punts, take your chances on kickoffs.
Pick: Redskins (-3)

NFL Week 13 Picks

Last weekend 7 – 6 – 0
Season 84 – 83 – 9


Spreads are curtesy of the Friday New York post. HOME team in CAPS.
My pick is the first team listed.


Packers (+7) COWBOYS
BEARS (+2) Giants
Jets (+1) DOLPHINS
Falcons (+3) RAMS
REDSKINS (-5.5) Bills
VIKINGS (-4) Lions
Texans (+3.5) TITANS
Jaguars (+6.5) COLTS
Chargers (-6) CHIEFS
EAGLES (-3) Seahawks
49ers (+3) PANTHERS
Bucs (+3.5) SAINTS
Browns (pk) CARDS
Broncos (-3.5) RAIDERS
Bengals (+7) STEELERS
Patriots (-20) RAVENS