2007 NFL Conference Championship Sunday

Playoffs 5 – 3 – 0
Regular Season 114 – 116 - 9

PATRIOTS (-14) Chargers: Let’s recap a few of my thoughts on how to beat the Patriots. In order to beat the Pats, the opponent must, have a high level of talent, play near flawless football for the entire 60 minutes, be able to pressure Brady without leaving receivers open, be able to control the clock and have the mentality that they can and will win the game. How many of these attributes can be contributed to the Chargers?

Talent: Offensively, the Chargers have the best RB in football and an above average offensive line, an All Pro TE, an incredibly talented WR in Chambers, and a blossoming-in-the-playoffs WR Vincent Jackson. A big concern is if Phillip Rivers will play, but if not, Billy Volek is capable of playing well. Defensively, the Chargers have playmakers at every level. Louis Castillo is a stud at DE, Igor Olshansky is solid at the other end. The LBs are a very fast group led by Shawne Merriman. LOLB Shaun Phillips is having a great postseason. The Charger DBs are playing solid football right now with Antonio Cromartie and Quinten Jammer leading the group.

Coaching: To play flawless football, the players need to be near perfect, and for the players to be near perfect, the coaches have to get them into the right spots to make plays. I am not a big fan of Norv Turner, but to his and his coaching staff’s credit, the Chargers came from behind in the wild card round and then won on the road in Indi. The Charger play-calling last week was fantastic on both sides of the ball, the players were prepared for the Colts and the environment of the RCA Dome, and most importantly, never gave up. The pressure present at the start of the playoffs is off Turner and the Chargers now. They made it further that most people thought they would go and can play the game Sunday with a lot emotion and little worry of what pundits will say if they lose.

Getting to Brady: The Jags made the mistake of playing too much soft zone against the Pats last week. Brady destroys the umbrella zone, evident by his 26 of 28 showing and 3 TD performance. The Chargers must get to Brady, but at the same time have all receivers accounted for. Brady will hit the hot route every time. The Charger play mostly the 3-4 defense, so pressure will come from the LBs. This is the most important aspect of the game. If Brady gets his accustomed 6 Mississippi to throw, the Chargers will have no chance.

Mentality: The Chargers remember the Patriots dancing on their logo at the 50 yard line last year after the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego. The best revenge for that loss would beat to beat the Pats and destroy their perfect season. L.T. took last years loss the hardest and nothing short of a torn ligament in his knee will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were not overwhelmed in Indianapolis last week and will not be scared about playing the Pats this Sunday.

Outlook: I picked the Chargers at the beginning of the year to make the Super Bowl, but thought they were going to get crushed last week. There is no denying the Chargers have a resolve about them and a very strong sense of team. We all know what the Patriots can do, but one big play can change a game and the Chargers have shown a knack for making that big play over the last half of the season. If I was asked to pick the winner of this game, I would not pick the Chargers, but in terms of the spread, 14 points seems like a lot with all the emotion the Chargers carry with them into the game.
Pick: Chargers (+14)


PACKERS (-7.5) Giants: The best decision of last week’s Green Bay game was Mike McCarthy not benching Ryan Grant, even for a series, after two fumbles on his first three touches. How many coaches would have left him in there for the third series? The unsung hero’s of the Packers season is their offensive line. Favre and Grant get the accolades, but the O-line paves the way for them to operate. I am not taking anything away from Grant’s performance last week, but the holes opened up for him at times were such that he was not hit until he got to the second level. RT Mark Tauscher, a perennial All Pro, destroyed Patrick Kerney last week. The battle between the Green Bay O-line and the Giant front seven is the most crucial of all the matchups. Any yardage by Grant makes it easier for Favre to operate. Regardless of Grant’s performance on Sunday, the Giants have to get to Favre with their front four. Favre is capable of winning without the benefit of a running game so New York has to get pressure up front because the Giant CBs can not stay with Driver, Jennings and Jones for the entire sixty minutes.

Offensively, the Giants will try to do what they have tried to establish all season and have been very successful at the last 3 weeks. Get Jacobs and Bradshaw going to limit the downfield attempts by Manning. The Giant offensive line has played extremely well this season but will have to deal with two excellent linemen in DE Aaron Kampman and DT Corey Williams. The Green Bay defense is very fast at LB and have an above average secondary (What a game by Bigby last week). The last three weeks have seen Manning become a Phill Simms clone and the Giant coaching staff would like to see most of Manning’s throws this week be under 15 yards. Of course they will go for the occasional big play to loosen up the secondary, but most of Manning’s passes will be short, controlled, move the chains attempts to keep the clock moving and have their defense well rested. As a note, the most important part of the Dallas 22 play 11 minute drive last week for the Giants was that it happened at the end of the first half. The Giant defenders got about 25 minutes of real time to rest up.

There was very little rust in Favre last week and the offense picked up tremendously after being down 14-0 to Seattle. The Green Bay defense is a solid, fast group and the Packers have a better team from top to bottom. Is it a better team by 7.5 points over the Giants who are playing at a high level and with a ton of emotion? Tough to say, but if you throw in the advantage that Lambeau will give the Packers, I have to go with the home team.
Pick: Packers (-7.5)