SEATTLE (-3) Washington: Washington carries a 4 game winning streak and momentum into the game. Todd Collins is playing way above his 36 year old, career journeyman self. Joe Gibbs will certainly give Portis as many carries as possible to limit mistakes by Collins. Portis had a decent year stat wise, rushing for 1262 yards, but 563 of those yards came in 4 games. That leaves 699 yards over the other 12 games on 209 carries, or 3.3 yards a carry. Will the aging Washington O-line open up some running lanes against the Seattle front 7? Seattle’s defense has playmakers at every level. Comeback player of the year candidate DE Patrick Kerny led the team in sacks and forced fumbles with 14 and 5 respectively. The line backers are the strength of their defense and are led by ILB Lofa Tatupu and an extremely talented Julian Peterson at OLB. Julian Peterson has been a favorite of mine since his San Fran days and he makes any defense better and faster. The secondary is solid, nothing spectacular, led by CB Marcus Trufant. Where the Seahawks are vulnerable, and where the Redskins will try to run is inside against a mediocre DT corp. Offensively, Seattle is a better team with Mourice Morris in the game rather than Alexander. Alexander has shown tentativeness into the hole and a reluctance to be hit the entire season. I see Seattle going with what worked best this season, a pass first offense. The horror show a few weeks ago against the Panthers aside, I am taking the Seahawks. They are at home and have the better, more established QB.
Pick: Seattle (-3)
Jacksonville (-2.5) PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh looks very shaky on defense right now. Against a poor Baltimore offense, the Steeler first team defense was continually gashed by running plays, a bad sign considering the Jags will pound away at the Steeler D with Fred Taylor. From their final 4 regular season games against the Pats, Rams, Jags and Ravens, the Steelers have given up an average of 373 yards from scrimmage a game. This is a huge number for a team that prides itself on defense. Offensively, Najah Davenport is no where near the talent level of Willie Parker. However, Davenport is a bigger and more natural north/south runner, whose physical nature may suit the Steelers better in this game. Whatever Najah can give the Steelers will benefit Ben Rothlisberger. He’s had an MVP type season and the ability to win big games. His post season career boasts 12 total TDs against 8 interception with 5 of those INTs coming in his rookie year of 2004. In regards to Jacksonville I hope for one thing, that they stay true to themselves and the game plans that have netted them 11 wins. Jacksonville is the physically tougher team and Del Rio will have them mentally prepared for this road playoff game. Del Rio made the decision to start Gerrard this season and it has paid off handsomely. Gerrard is poised, has accuracy, an above average arm and rarely makes mistakes. I can definitely see him leading the Jags to a road playoff victory. But again, I hope that Jax stays true to their offensive(run first then play action)/defensive (tough man to man with a blitz sprinkled in) philosophies, that they don’t over-think themselves into bad play calls ruining a drive or a game. Jacksonville has been the better, more consistent team this season.
Pick: Jacksonville (-2.5)
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