NFL Divisional Round, Saturday Games

PACKERS (-8) Seahawks: Did Seattle really deserve to win last week? What if Cooley, Moss and Randel El catch the balls they dropped all game? The missed FG? Seattle has a few playmakers on defense, but they were as a unit one step behind the Redskins last week until a few 4th Q mistakes by Todd Collins. Offensively the Seahawks are not quite right. The inability to run the ball has made Seattle a one dimensional team. During the season they were able to be one dimensional against average defenses, but in this game against an above average defense, one dimensional will not get it done. The Packers are led on defense by their two studs at LB. Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are both strong, extremely fast and have the ability to cover TEs and RBs when asked to. The DL is anchored by two pass rushing DE’s, Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. The Packer defensive backfield is average in my opinion. Al Harris is overrated and Charles Woodsen has lost a step. Don’t get me wrong, they are decent CBs, but they have both been exploited at times this season. The Packer offense had its epiphany when Ryan Grant emerged as a viable RB. The Packer can lean on Grant as the focal point of the offense, opening up play action and downfield strikes to Jennings and Driver. The Packers have lacked a consistent running game the prior two seasons and it has hurt Brett Favre’s stat line. Which Brett Favre will show up this week? Will it be the conservative short passes, take what the defense gives you, look deep only when available Brett Favre, or the force the ball into coverage and go deep on half my throws Brett Favre? I think the Packers will get a running game going, Favre will not force throws, Hasselbeck will make a few mistakes and home field will be an advantage.
Pick: Packers (-8)

PATRIOTS (-13.5) Jaguars: The few games the Patriots struggled to win have given a glimpse into how to beat the Patriots. Against the Colts we learned you need a team that has enough talent to keep up with the Patriots for 60 minutes, and you have to play at a high level for the entire game. Against the Eagles we learned that pressure helps in slowing down Tom Brady as long as all the receivers are covered by a defender. Blitzes are designed to get to the QB quickly but tend to leave a receiver open. The defense hopes the QB is not smart enough to read the blitz and hit the open/hot target. Against Brady, all the receivers must be accounted for when blitzing because Brady has shown countless times his ability to hit the hot route. Against Baltimore we learned that the Pats might not be great at stopping a determined running game. McGahee ran like a beast that night behind an offensive line that pushed the Patriot D-line around. A consistent running game that is moving the ball opens up play-action and keeps the Pats offense off the field. Against the Giants we learned that you need the right mentality to beat the Patriots. All week leading up to the Giant- Pats game, quotes from Giant players and coaches were along the lines of, “ we want to play the Patriots, we are not afraid of the Patriots, we will beat the Patriots”. The Giants played with confidence, a mentality of no fear. Jacksonville has a team capable of utilizing the above. The Jags have a physical defensive line that can get to the QB on its own. If they throw one or two more guys at Brady, there will still be enough defenders to cover all the Patriot receivers. The Jags are a team that has shown its ability to run and control clock the entire season. Fred Taylor is healthy and Jones Drew can change a game with one play. Del Rio will have the Jags ready and confident for the game. The Jaguars, who won in Pittsburgh twice in a month, will not be intimidated by the surroundings in New England. Del Rio will also not, I hope, change the game plans that have gotten the Jaguars to this game.

We all know what the Patriots can do on offense, so a 37- 17 final score is certainly possible, especially since Bellichick has had two weeks to prepare. My big concern is if the Jags have the talent level from top to bottom to match the Pats for the entire 60 minutes. If David Gerrard protects the ball and manages the game well, if Del Rio sticks with the game plan even if they fall behind early, if the Jags come to the game ready to play hard and with a we will win mentality, if these criteria are met, the Jags will cover the spread.
Pick: Jaguars (+13.5)