Football Universal

Liverpool vs. Chelsea

2008-04-21T20:13:00.000-07:00

Liverpool was my pick to win this title at the start of the campaign and there is no reason to go against them at this point. Rafa Benitez is a genius regarding in game adjustments and has the talent available to adjust his lineup and formation to match any style of play he desires. What about Grant? When this game gets to the second half and his team is a goal down will he have the knowledge and creativity to make formation and personnel adjustments? How about the return leg, will he know how to cope with a deficit or protect a lead? I am not so sure. In game and between game adjustments were not a problem when Jose Mourinho managed. All Chelsea supporters were certain Mourinho put the correct lineup on the pitch and he always put his players in the best positions to win.

What I have really liked from Liverpool’s lineup the past month is Kyut playing midfield. I wondered at first why Benitez would do this. And then it struck me, Benitez needed a tough guy on the wing for future matchups. Look at Chelsea. They have a very talented playmaking player in Joe Cole running the left wing. Joe Cole may disappear in big games but there is no denying his pace and talent on the wing. Kyut will most certainly give him a good whack or two in order to get Cole a bit more nervous than he already will be. When Liverpool make it the final, ManU or Barca will be there and their star wingers are Ronaldo and Messi respectively. Again, Kyut will be there playing tough defense on Ronaldo and Messi, making certain to not concede any space to them.

Liverpool will win because of Benitez, Gerrard , Torres and the team’s uncanny ability to win big games. I also have very little faith in Chelsea’s star players when the heat is on. Lampard and Joe Cole become liabilities in big games. Of course, Essien and Drogba, Chelsea’s two best players, can carry the offense and with John Terry providing world class defense, Chelsea can win. But I would put the odds at 5 to 1 that Chelsea advance to the final.

Eduardo da Silva breaks leg

2008-02-24T09:07:00.000-08:00

Here is video and commentary of the very nasty injury suffered on Saturday, February 23 to Croatian national and Arsenal striker Eduardo da Silva. This injury will sideline Eduardo for quite some time. Talk of this injury being career threatening may be a bit rushed, but fears that Eduardo may never recover from such a blow is warranted.

Champion's League 1st Leg Notes

2008-02-22T09:27:00.001-08:00

Roma (2) vs. Real Madrid (1): Real Madrid played offense through the middle of the pitch, even after Roma dedicated another mid fielder to defense in front of the center backs. I would have liked to see Real spread the field a bit and use crosses from the wings. Except for a shot of the post late in the game, Van Nistelroy was a non factor. I was surprised Baptista did not start, and even more surprised Schuster brought him on so late in the contest, minute 77. Baptista replaced Robben who played an excellent game. Roma had a few odd man breaks in the second half that they failed to capitalize on. One in particular was awful. 4-2 break, the spacing was too narrow and the passing even worse. I don’t think they got a shot off from this chance. Totti started the game slow, but showed his class in the second half, culminating in a steal from a bad Real pass and then placed a beautiful pass to a cutting Mancini who calmly beat the goalie. Real needs Robinho back. Their offense is not the same without his speed and skill up front.

Olympiacos (0) vs. Chelsea (0): This was one of the more boring matches I have seen in a long time. There was plenty of rain in the air and on the field, so one could surmise a team from England should be able to play in these conditions better than a team from Greece. Wrong, Chelsea lacked movement and pace the entire contest. Drogba had two chances, a strike in the first half that was saved, and then a header late in the second half that he should have done better with, sailing the ball over the bar. Olympiacos settled for counter attacks most of the contest, getting numbers in their favor a few times, but failing to get any thing menacing on net.

Liverpool (2) vs. Inter (0): As much as I hate Matterazzi, he did not deserve either yellow card that led to his dismissal early in the first half. Maybe his reputation preceded him, maybe the ref has a grudge, I do not know, but I am certain that the referee will face questioning after two awful calls that looks to have decided this contest before the return leg to Milan. A matchup of this magnitude is not for the referee to decide, but for the talent of the players on the pitch. After Materazzi’s dismissal , Liverpool controlled tempo but did not have any real chances at net. After half time, Inter seemed to get some momentum and threatened with a few shots and corners. Liverpool regained control at about the 75 minute mark and continued to pepper the Inter defense to no avail until Kuyt’s breakthrough at the 85 minute mark. Gerrard added a second goal a few minutes later. Young Dutch international Ryan Babel had a solid game. Liverpool uses him on the outside, but his physical qualities seem more suited for striker. Babel is fast, tall, has excellent skill with the ball at his feet and a relentless motor.

I have argued against the away goals rule for tie breaks. Let us say Inter beats Liverpool 3-1 in Milan with no dismissals. Under the away goals rule, Liverpool would advance. Is this fair? Why is 2-0 in an 11 on 10 game more impressive that a 3-1 full strength match? Uefa needs to improve the tie break rule. Away goals is garbage. In the event of a tie after two games, the teams should go to two 15-minute halves followed by penalty kicks if necessary.

Celtic (2) vs. Barca (3): Celtic looked lost against Barcelona’s movement and give-and-go passing. I am sure that Celtic do not see an offense with such movement and understanding of space in the Scottish league. Celtic played with a lot of heart but were simply out classed for most of the contest. Henry, in my opinion, is the best pure striker in the world when fit, and had a beautiful goal in the second half. From the corner of the penalty box area, Henry was given about two yards of space by the defender who worried against Henry’s quickness to goal. Henry simply curled a shot around the defense and goalie for the score. Magnificent goal that he made look effortless. Ronaldinho looked motivated and Messi was world class.

Celtic still has a chance and would be wise to go all out on offense. Some coaches would say, “let’s play our normal game and see what happens”. Well, Celtic tried that and should be down 5-2 rather than the 3-2 they are down. Abandon the 4-4-2 and go with more of an attack friendly 4-3-3 or 4-1-2-1-2.

Lyon (1) vs. Man United (1): The most entertaining game of the week. Back and forth play, beautiful passes and great defending. Can not fault either team in tactics or spirit. Govou played superbly on the left wing for Lyon and was the impetus for most attacks in the first half. I expect Anderson to sit for Man U in the return leg to give way for Tevez to start and for United to go to their more traditional 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 formation.

Arsenal (0) vs. A.C. Milan (0): Arsenal was the better team and controlled their play through the midfield, a surprise given the experience and class of Milan’s midfield. Arsenal created more chances, 7 shots on goal to only two for Milan, and were unfortunate to have several shots skim just wide of the net. The best chance was an Adebyor header in stoppage time that hit the crossbar. Adebyor has been one of the hottest strikers in the world the past month and had a clear look at net. The missed opportunity will haunt Arsenal if they fail in Milan. Arsenal’s youthful legs wore down Milan and they will certainly try to do the same at the San Siro.

Schalke (1) vs. Porto (0) and Fenerbache (3) vs. Sevilla: These games were not available at The Rover, I did not watch them, so consequently have no comment on these games.

Champion League Knockout Stage, Wednesday Games

2008-02-20T11:23:00.001-08:00

Celtic vs. Barcelona: Barca better watch out going into Scotland. For all their offensive firepower, Barca lacks defensive play from their midfielders and forwards. Deco husles back, but one can not expect much defensive presence from Ronaldinho, Messi and especially Henry. Celtic is a tough out in this competition, ask A.C Milan who had a difficult time last season against Celtic in the knockout stage and lost to them this season in Scotland this season during group stage. Celtic will be physical, play smart and with the home crowd, is fully capable of a positive result, a win or draw, heading into the second leg in Spain.

Lyon vs. Manchester United: United is an elite club team. Tevez and Rooney are playing wonderfully together, the midfield is strong led by Ronaldo, Scholes and Hargreaves. I think Vidic is a bit over-rated in the back, but he is helped by talented men around him. Lyon was devastated by injuries earlier in the year. A testament to their fortitude and heart, the 6 time defending French champion has reached Champion’s league knockout stage again, along with their perch atop Ligue 1 in France. Coupet, injured at the season’s start, is back in form. The ever present Juninho, Brazil’s most underrated player, will be the catalyst for an offense that bores defenses into mistakes and goals. Man U is the better team and should advance, especially with the quality of coach as Sir Alex Fergusen. However, the pain of elimination from Europe’s best club tournament has befallen Lyon on a continual basis and those memories will fuel their fight to topple Man U.

Arsenal vs. A.C. Milan: Arsenal is young, flashy and have had great success so far this season. There is no doubt oftheirt ability, but I think their Champion’s League run ends in this round. Milan is battle tested, have class throughout the pitch and know how to win this tournament. For all of Arsenal’a talent at midfield, they may lack the mental toughness to deal with the constant physical play of Gattusso, Ambrosinni and Seedorf. Then you have Pirlo, Kaka and Pato on attack with a bench that includes Inzaghi, Gilardino and youngster Alberto Paloschi. I will be rooting for the Crozillian and Arsenal, but they have their hands full with a Milan team that started the season slow, but has picked up the class of play to their form of last season.

Fenerbache vs. Sevilla: Don’t know much about either team. If I was betting on this matchup , I would bet that Turkish side Fenerbache advances. Why? Because few teams are able to go into Turkey and get a decision. Fenerbache has fought long and hard to make it to the knockout stage after years of group stage frustration and will not let this opportunity go by hastily.

Champion League Knockout Stage, Tuesday Games

2008-02-18T10:21:00.000-08:00

FC Schalke vs. FC Porto: One problem with having cable rather than satellite TV is that not many soccer channels are offered on cable. My service offers Fox Soccer Channel, which shows European league matches from only England and Italy. Consequently, I have very little viewing experience of these two teams. I have watched both teams play during group stage matches, but those matches finished over two months ago. So, with that being said, here are my thoughts.

Porto have won 4 of the last 5 Portuguese league titles and currently reside in first place by a comfortable 10 points. Lisandro Lopez is having a fine season with 15 goals through 23 Portuguese and Champion’s League matches. Porto does employ one of my favorite players. Ricardo Quaresma is a Portuguese national team MF/FW who makes good things happen. He is an excellent passer from his natural midfield position and can move to FW when needed. His dribbling skills are awesome and he can take over any game. If he decided to play in Spain or England, his would be a household name.

For Schalke, this is their first trip into the knockout stage of Champion’s League play. I guess I’ll be rooting for Porto to win simply because I enjoy watching Quaresma play. If I was to throw some money on this matchup, I would go with the underdog, whomever that may be.

Roma vs Real Madrid: I wrote in an earlier post that the Final Four for the Champion’s League was going to be Roma, Real Madrid, Liverpool and either Man U or A.C. Milan. It’s going to break my heart that Roma or Real is going home early. Both teams have a lot of talent. Totti and Mancini will have the bulk of shots for Roma. They will be helped out by Mexes, Pizzarro, the playmaker De Rossi, a steal during the summer transfer window from Marseille Ludovic Giuly, and a favorite of mine, Simone Perrotta who is not getting the playing time he enjoyed last season. The problem I have with Roma this season is that they look too much for the beautiful goal set up by the perfect pass. The idea of shooting to see if something good comes out of it is a foreign idea to Roma. A potential problem for Roma may be fatigue. They are away to Juventus this Saturday in a huge game for second place in Seria A. They will likely play their 1st team for most of the game because second place in Seria A is guaranteed a spot in next season’s Champion’s League group stage.

Real Madrid is one of the hottest teams in the world right now and boasting an impressive group of strikers. Julio “The Beast” Baptista, Robinho, van Nistelrooy, and Raul can start for most any team in Europe and give Real an extremely deep and talented forward group that will keep putting pressure on Roma. MF Arjen Robben is playing well of late and German international MF Wesley Sneijder is the catalyst from the middle. The defense, led by the dominant Fabio Cannavaro, has given up only 18 goals in 23 league games.

Both teams are talented and battle tested, but Real Madrid is on a different class level than most teams in Europe at the moment. I will be rooting for Roma, and will put up a good fight, but in the end Real should move on to the final 8.

** The two above matchups were written on Thursday, Feb 14. Real Madrid MF Wesley Sneider has since suffered a rib injury that will sideline him for both Roma matches. Robinho is also doubtful for the first leg with an abdominal strain.

Olympiacos vs. Chelsea: Olympiacos have won the Greek League title 10 of the past 11 years. Domestic success is great, but energy, hope, money and confidence resides fully in Champion League play. They escaped a tough group with Real Madrid, Werder Bremen and Lazio to make it to the final 16. Most people would rather get the second leg at home, but in this case, I think it works to their advantage to be in Athens for the 1st leg against Chelsea. A friend of mine, Greek in heritage, has tried to get tickets to the match for some time now. He is well off with money, so no doubt would have given over $1000 for a ticket. The fact that he could not get a ticket is testament to the belief that Olympiacos has a team that can give Chelsea all they can handle and ultimately advance. The stadium in Athens will be a zoo at game time. Fireworks, flairs, fires in the stands and constant chanting will make it a tough place for Chelsea to play.

Chelsea has talent, no one can argue with this. My problem with Chelsea is that some of their supposed leaders, namely Lampard and Joe Cole, disappear in big matches. Frank Lampard and Joe Cole, for all their individual talent, fail to be tough or have meaningful presence in high pressure situations the past several years. A big question mark is also the ability of manager Avhaham Grant to lead Chelsea and make tactical adjustments in matches that carry the weight of Champion’s League play.

Chelsea will be put to a major test with this matchup. What Olympiacos lacks in talent will be made up in heart and tough football. Hard Tackles and intimidation will be constant. Chelsea’s best players, Essien, Drogba, Terry and Chech will probably lead Chelsea to the next round, especially if they go back to Stamford Bridge with a positive result from Athens. However, we have seen the Greeks win a Euro Cup through hard play and defense. It would not surprise me if Olympiacos get through with a bit of luck and hard play.

Liverpool vs. Inter Milan: Two heavyweights in club football get to beat up on one another. Inter is playing better heading into these games. This past weekend saw Liverpool fall out of the FA Cup with a disastrous home loss to second division Barnsley at Anfield. Liverpool is built for Champion’s League play, deep and with the ability to switch styles to exploit opponent weaknesses. Rafa Benitez is a fantastic manager who knows how to get his teams further along in tournaments. Inter is a solid team. Two time defending Seria A champions, they have given up only 13 goals in league play this season from 23 matches, while scoring 48. I picked Liverpool to win the Champion’s League this season, so I will be rooting for them, but my confidence is not very high.

A note on the away goal tie break rule. The away goals rule is a method of breaking ties in football when teams play each other twice, once at each team's home ground. By the away goals rule, the team that has scored more goals "away from home" will win if scores are otherwise tied. I hate this rule simply because two games are never equal. If Liverpool and Inter play to a 2-1 Liverpool win in Anfield and then a 1-0 Inter win in Milan, Inter would advance on “away goals”. Nonsense! What if the officiating was bad in one game and not the other? What if there was rain in one game and not the other? There are a myriad of reasons for two games to not be equal. In the event of a total goals tie after the second leg, the game should go to extra time for 30 minutes and then to penalty kicks.

Super Bowl XLII Notes

2008-02-06T13:35:00.000-08:00

You have to question why Belichick did not go for the 48 yard FG on 4th and 13 on the first drive of the second half. One of the announcers said that he was not surprised the Patriots were going for it because it was a habit of theirs through out the season. True, they did go for it on 4th down a lot this year, but how many of those attempts were from 13 yards? Get Gastowski out on the field for the attempt! He has never kicked a FG in a Super Bowl so why not give him a shot? Did Belichick really want Gastowski’s first Super Bowl FG attempt to be of the game winning variety? Gastowski was 3-5 during the regular season on FG beyond 40 yards with a long of 45. With the adrenalin, the atmosphere, the pressure of the Super Bowl, it would have been nice to see if the kid had a big kick in him.

The Giants had the benefit of two non calls. The first was when Toomer pushed off of the CB's helmet on a 38 yard completion in the 2nd Q. It was a beautiful sideline catch, but one that should have been called back. The drive ended in an INT off of Smith's hands. The second non call was on the Giant winning drive, when Manning escaped 4 Pats defenders and threw the pass that Tyree caught against his helmet. As Manning escaped pressure, there was a blatant hold on a Patriot defender trying to get at Manning for a second time.

The Giant defensive line dominated the best O-line in football and won the game for the Giants. Why did the patriots not give Brady a bit more support. There were times this season I remember the Patriots keeping a TE and a RB in pass support, block and flare out if need be, to assure Brady would not get touched and have an outlet if the downfield receivers were covered. That did not happen this game. The Pats trusted their O-line to a fault, reminiscent of the Giant-Eagle game from early in the year when the Giants registered double digit sacks.

Brady missed receivers. This never happens to him on the big stage, a clear testament to the pounding the Giants administered to Brady. He missed Moss on a seam route early in the 4th Q on 2nd and 7 from the NE 31 that looked like a TD if completed. He missed Moss on an easy 6 yard out for a TD. Brady threw high, short and wide of receivers, never getting into a rhythm.

The Giants deserved to win this game, no one can deny it, but on the game winning Giant drive, the Patriot defense dropped two interceptions. Asante Samuel did not look up in time on a sideline out route. The ball went over the receiver’s head and Samuel got both hands on the pass after jumping a second late. Rodney Harrison dropped an INT on the same drive when Manning threw into double coverage. The Patriot defense played well, but in the past would have come up with a game changing play, especially in the 4th Q of a big game.

I do not think Manning was the MVP of the game. He played well, true, but the award was most deserved by a defensive player. Justin Tuck ended the game with 5 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble. He lined up at DE, DT and LB and was constantly in the backfield putting pressure on Brady.

Super Bowl XLII

2008-02-02T12:03:00.001-08:00

Regular Season 114 – 116 – 9
Post Season 6 – 4 – 0

Patriots (-11.5) Giants

Giants offense vs Patriot defense: The Giants want to continue the same offensive strategy they have used the last four games, run the ball and have most/all of Manning’s passes travel less than 20 yards in the air. This approach is predicated on the Giant offensive line effectiveness against the Patriot front seven. New York’s O-line has played above expectations this season and has dominated defenses the past month. The Patriots have an experienced, talented and versatile front seven. Wilfork is a load at DT, a true run stuffer needed by all defenses to be effective, more so in the 3-4 scheme run by the Patriots. Richard Seymour may have lost a step after injury, but has the ability to take a game over with his combination of pass rushing and run stopping. He is also adept in pass coverage when the Pats zone blitz. The LB corps is where the Giants can attack with their passing game. Bruschi, Seau,Vrabel and Thomas are technically sound, sure tacklers and very smart, but aside from Thomas, are beatable in the passing game due to their lack of speed. Look for the Giants to exploit situations when Patriot LBs match up on slot receivers and RBs out of the back field. TE Kevin Boss has emerged after Shockey’s injury as a legit pass catcher and can be a factor in the passing attack if the Giants can establish the run. Plaxico Burress is a mismatch for most CBs in the league. Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel are both good CBs, but if Plax is healthy and playing with emotion as he should be for the Super Bowl, he can continually beat the Patriot secondary. Amani Toomer is a viable target, as consistent a WR as the Giants have ever had, and Steve Smith has made a handful of big plays this post season. New York will move the ball on the Patriots, the key will be to score TDs . Apparent from the divisional round and conference championship games, FGs will not beat the Patriots.

Patriot offense vs. Giant defense: Warm weather bodes well for Brady and the passing attack, but how much will they throw? Will they go back to the offensive strategy of bombs away that was so awe inspiring the first half of the year, or stay with the more balanced, more conservative approach spearheaded by a very talented Laurence Maroney? The past month or so has seen the Patriots shift to more of a running game. Was it to keep Brady, Moss and Welker healthy, to keep passing plays off of film for analysis, to help move the ball in adverse weather, to help out a veteran defense by controlling clock? Not sure why Belichick changed offensive tempo, but if the Pats are planning to go pass happy for the Super Bowl, it will be tougher than people think to simply turn up the dial and revert to offensive tempo from the first half of the season. Regardless what game-plan the Patriots hope to employ, the fate of their offensive success and the balance of this game will fall on the match up between the Patriot offensive line and the Giant front seven. As a unit, the Patriot offensive line is the best in the NFL. They are smart, athletic, always moving and most importantly, they play hard until the whistle sounds. This last point has raised questions about the Patriot O-line playing dirty and administering cheap shots. The Giants boast an impressive pass rush without the need for blitzing. The Giant front four is very capable of getting to the QB. If the D-line fails to get pressure, then the Giants will have to start blitzing in order to pressure Brady, but against Brady, blitzes usually fail to work because he is the best in the NFL at picking up the hot route on blitz packages. The Giant secondary is not a very strong unit and if Brady gets time, will destroy them.

Special Teams: The Giants will need a few big special team plays if they are to beat the Pats, but more importantly, must not give up anything big. The Giants must avoid giving the Pats a short field. In regards to place kickers, I see the Giants with an advantage. New England’s Gastkowski has yet to kick a FG with all the pressure of the game on his shoulders and the Super Bowl is not the setting ideal for testing a kicker’s mettle. Tynes had his glory kick happen in the championship game. It is my feeling that the distance actually helped him hit the FG. After missing two makeable FGs in regulation, the 47 yard attempt in overtime was a no pressure attempt. He could go out and give it his best because with the conditions, who really thought he was going to make that kick? If the attempt was from 35, I think he misses again.

Prediction: I have been going back and forth with who I like this game against the spread. The Patriots are fully capable of blowing the Giants out on Sunday. If the Giants running game falters and the game falls on Manning’s shoulders, the Patriots win by 25. Mannning is playing well of late, but has yet to show he can win a game on his own. However, I do see the Giants moving the ball with a balanced attack. New York would love to see Jacobs and Bradshaw get 35 carries between them and Manning finish with 20 pass attempts. That scenario is recipe for Giant victory, but improbable. So what do I see happening? A competitive game for three quarters before the talent and experience of the Patriots takes over. Final score, Patriots 31 Giants 17.
Pick: Patriots (-11.5)

2007 NFL Conference Championship Sunday

2008-01-18T09:01:00.000-08:00

Playoffs 5 – 3 – 0
Regular Season 114 – 116 - 9

PATRIOTS (-14) Chargers: Let’s recap a few of my thoughts on how to beat the Patriots. In order to beat the Pats, the opponent must, have a high level of talent, play near flawless football for the entire 60 minutes, be able to pressure Brady without leaving receivers open, be able to control the clock and have the mentality that they can and will win the game. How many of these attributes can be contributed to the Chargers?

Talent: Offensively, the Chargers have the best RB in football and an above average offensive line, an All Pro TE, an incredibly talented WR in Chambers, and a blossoming-in-the-playoffs WR Vincent Jackson. A big concern is if Phillip Rivers will play, but if not, Billy Volek is capable of playing well. Defensively, the Chargers have playmakers at every level. Louis Castillo is a stud at DE, Igor Olshansky is solid at the other end. The LBs are a very fast group led by Shawne Merriman. LOLB Shaun Phillips is having a great postseason. The Charger DBs are playing solid football right now with Antonio Cromartie and Quinten Jammer leading the group.

Coaching: To play flawless football, the players need to be near perfect, and for the players to be near perfect, the coaches have to get them into the right spots to make plays. I am not a big fan of Norv Turner, but to his and his coaching staff’s credit, the Chargers came from behind in the wild card round and then won on the road in Indi. The Charger play-calling last week was fantastic on both sides of the ball, the players were prepared for the Colts and the environment of the RCA Dome, and most importantly, never gave up. The pressure present at the start of the playoffs is off Turner and the Chargers now. They made it further that most people thought they would go and can play the game Sunday with a lot emotion and little worry of what pundits will say if they lose.

Getting to Brady: The Jags made the mistake of playing too much soft zone against the Pats last week. Brady destroys the umbrella zone, evident by his 26 of 28 showing and 3 TD performance. The Chargers must get to Brady, but at the same time have all receivers accounted for. Brady will hit the hot route every time. The Charger play mostly the 3-4 defense, so pressure will come from the LBs. This is the most important aspect of the game. If Brady gets his accustomed 6 Mississippi to throw, the Chargers will have no chance.

Mentality: The Chargers remember the Patriots dancing on their logo at the 50 yard line last year after the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego. The best revenge for that loss would beat to beat the Pats and destroy their perfect season. L.T. took last years loss the hardest and nothing short of a torn ligament in his knee will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were not overwhelmed in Indianapolis last week and will not be scared about playing the Pats this Sunday.

Outlook: I picked the Chargers at the beginning of the year to make the Super Bowl, but thought they were going to get crushed last week. There is no denying the Chargers have a resolve about them and a very strong sense of team. We all know what the Patriots can do, but one big play can change a game and the Chargers have shown a knack for making that big play over the last half of the season. If I was asked to pick the winner of this game, I would not pick the Chargers, but in terms of the spread, 14 points seems like a lot with all the emotion the Chargers carry with them into the game.
Pick: Chargers (+14)

PACKERS (-7.5) Giants: The best decision of last week’s Green Bay game was Mike McCarthy not benching Ryan Grant, even for a series, after two fumbles on his first three touches. How many coaches would have left him in there for the third series? The unsung hero’s of the Packers season is their offensive line. Favre and Grant get the accolades, but the O-line paves the way for them to operate. I am not taking anything away from Grant’s performance last week, but the holes opened up for him at times were such that he was not hit until he got to the second level. RT Mark Tauscher, a perennial All Pro, destroyed Patrick Kerney last week. The battle between the Green Bay O-line and the Giant front seven is the most crucial of all the matchups. Any yardage by Grant makes it easier for Favre to operate. Regardless of Grant’s performance on Sunday, the Giants have to get to Favre with their front four. Favre is capable of winning without the benefit of a running game so New York has to get pressure up front because the Giant CBs can not stay with Driver, Jennings and Jones for the entire sixty minutes.

Offensively, the Giants will try to do what they have tried to establish all season and have been very successful at the last 3 weeks. Get Jacobs and Bradshaw going to limit the downfield attempts by Manning. The Giant offensive line has played extremely well this season but will have to deal with two excellent linemen in DE Aaron Kampman and DT Corey Williams. The Green Bay defense is very fast at LB and have an above average secondary (What a game by Bigby last week). The last three weeks have seen Manning become a Phill Simms clone and the Giant coaching staff would like to see most of Manning’s throws this week be under 15 yards. Of course they will go for the occasional big play to loosen up the secondary, but most of Manning’s passes will be short, controlled, move the chains attempts to keep the clock moving and have their defense well rested. As a note, the most important part of the Dallas 22 play 11 minute drive last week for the Giants was that it happened at the end of the first half. The Giant defenders got about 25 minutes of real time to rest up.

There was very little rust in Favre last week and the offense picked up tremendously after being down 14-0 to Seattle. The Green Bay defense is a solid, fast group and the Packers have a better team from top to bottom. Is it a better team by 7.5 points over the Giants who are playing at a high level and with a ton of emotion? Tough to say, but if you throw in the advantage that Lambeau will give the Packers, I have to go with the home team.
Pick: Packers (-7.5)

NFL Divisional Round, Sunday Games

2008-01-13T08:36:00.000-08:00

DALLAS (-7) Giants: Tomo Romo takes a vacation and there are some that feel this is the worst action he could have taken with his offense struggling. It’s his off week and management gave him the green light to go to Mexico. If you had an off week and the money to travel, would you stay at home and prepare for the day you came back to work? He’s prepared for the Giants twice already this season and needed time away from football. This is exactly what the bye week is for. For the teams who have earned the right, they can take a week off and get totally away from the game, clear the mind and get back to work fresh the next week. Brett Favre did not go to Mexico, but I bet that he did not look at any film until this past week. You think Brady was watching film last week as he was spotted going out in New York with his girl friend?

Dallas is an elite team when their offense is clicking, but above average when the offense has struggled. I say this because the Cowboy defense is overrated and do not have the ability to win a game on their own. I feel DeMarcus Ware and Gregg Ellis are the best two players on the defense, after that, a lot of hype. Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry are decent, Roy Williams is a big hit safety, but is mediocre in pass coverage. Who on the Dallas D-line inspires confidence? Dallas will not win this game with their defense alone.

The Giants are on a high, no denying that. The Patriot game has infused this team with a lot of confidence, especially in Manning. In the Patriot game he looked in total control, in the Tampa game he looked Phill Simms esque, boringly efficient with a just move the chains mentality. It seems to me that Manning is most comfortable when he comes up to the line, looks over the defense and makes an audible. The Giants chances of winning depend on them running the ball with Jacobs and Bradshaw. However, where there was doubt early in the year if Manning can win important games, there is confidence now in Manning that he can.

The Giants defense is playing well, their offense is moving the ball, and there is total confidence in Tom Coughlin going into Sunday. The Cowboys offense will be better than it was in the last quarter of the regular season. I do not see this game as a blowout in either direction.
Pick: Giants (+7)

COLTS (-10) Chargers: LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football, and he can take over any game. If Dungy prepares his defense for the run and they are successful in stopping L.T., then the Charger offense will fall on the shoulders of Norv Turner’s ingenuity and Phillip River’s arm. Not very confident in that proposal, especially since Antonio Gates is probably out. Defensively the Chargers will not stop the Colt offense. I’m a big fan of Louis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie had a tremendous season and Shawn Merriman is a beast, but as a unit, the Charger defense will not stop the Colts with their full assortment of targets for Manning to throw to. I picked the Chargers to win the AFC in the preseason, but do not see them winning this game and will struggle to cover the spread.
Pick: Colts (-10)

NFL Divisional Round, Saturday Games

2008-01-12T10:07:00.000-08:00

PACKERS (-8) Seahawks: Did Seattle really deserve to win last week? What if Cooley, Moss and Randel El catch the balls they dropped all game? The missed FG? Seattle has a few playmakers on defense, but they were as a unit one step behind the Redskins last week until a few 4th Q mistakes by Todd Collins. Offensively the Seahawks are not quite right. The inability to run the ball has made Seattle a one dimensional team. During the season they were able to be one dimensional against average defenses, but in this game against an above average defense, one dimensional will not get it done. The Packers are led on defense by their two studs at LB. Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are both strong, extremely fast and have the ability to cover TEs and RBs when asked to. The DL is anchored by two pass rushing DE’s, Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. The Packer defensive backfield is average in my opinion. Al Harris is overrated and Charles Woodsen has lost a step. Don’t get me wrong, they are decent CBs, but they have both been exploited at times this season. The Packer offense had its epiphany when Ryan Grant emerged as a viable RB. The Packer can lean on Grant as the focal point of the offense, opening up play action and downfield strikes to Jennings and Driver. The Packers have lacked a consistent running game the prior two seasons and it has hurt Brett Favre’s stat line. Which Brett Favre will show up this week? Will it be the conservative short passes, take what the defense gives you, look deep only when available Brett Favre, or the force the ball into coverage and go deep on half my throws Brett Favre? I think the Packers will get a running game going, Favre will not force throws, Hasselbeck will make a few mistakes and home field will be an advantage.
Pick: Packers (-8)

PATRIOTS (-13.5) Jaguars: The few games the Patriots struggled to win have given a glimpse into how to beat the Patriots. Against the Colts we learned you need a team that has enough talent to keep up with the Patriots for 60 minutes, and you have to play at a high level for the entire game. Against the Eagles we learned that pressure helps in slowing down Tom Brady as long as all the receivers are covered by a defender. Blitzes are designed to get to the QB quickly but tend to leave a receiver open. The defense hopes the QB is not smart enough to read the blitz and hit the open/hot target. Against Brady, all the receivers must be accounted for when blitzing because Brady has shown countless times his ability to hit the hot route. Against Baltimore we learned that the Pats might not be great at stopping a determined running game. McGahee ran like a beast that night behind an offensive line that pushed the Patriot D-line around. A consistent running game that is moving the ball opens up play-action and keeps the Pats offense off the field. Against the Giants we learned that you need the right mentality to beat the Patriots. All week leading up to the Giant- Pats game, quotes from Giant players and coaches were along the lines of, “ we want to play the Patriots, we are not afraid of the Patriots, we will beat the Patriots”. The Giants played with confidence, a mentality of no fear. Jacksonville has a team capable of utilizing the above. The Jags have a physical defensive line that can get to the QB on its own. If they throw one or two more guys at Brady, there will still be enough defenders to cover all the Patriot receivers. The Jags are a team that has shown its ability to run and control clock the entire season. Fred Taylor is healthy and Jones Drew can change a game with one play. Del Rio will have the Jags ready and confident for the game. The Jaguars, who won in Pittsburgh twice in a month, will not be intimidated by the surroundings in New England. Del Rio will also not, I hope, change the game plans that have gotten the Jaguars to this game.

We all know what the Patriots can do on offense, so a 37- 17 final score is certainly possible, especially since Bellichick has had two weeks to prepare. My big concern is if the Jags have the talent level from top to bottom to match the Pats for the entire 60 minutes. If David Gerrard protects the ball and manages the game well, if Del Rio sticks with the game plan even if they fall behind early, if the Jags come to the game ready to play hard and with a we will win mentality, if these criteria are met, the Jags will cover the spread.
Pick: Jaguars (+13.5)

2007 NFL Wild Card Weekend, Sunday Games

2008-01-06T09:01:00.001-08:00

BUCS (-3) Giants: Last week’s game against the Patriots has been described as a momentum boost for the Giants and a great way to end the season. Really? First and foremost is the Giants lost the game. Countless articles in New York papers about how big a momentum boost this game was for the Giants going into the playoffs failed to recognize that the Giants lost the game. More importantly, the Giants will probably be without three starters; Sam Madison who would have drawn the assignment of Joey Galloway, Kawika Mitchel who has been playing a solid LB this season, and Shaun O’hara, the Giant’s C. The O’Hara injury worries me the most for the Giants. Every 1st team practice, every play from scrimmage this season before this week has been between O’Hara and Manning. Blitz calls and assignment changes on the O-line are made mostly by the QB, but there are times the C must make reads and call out adjustments for the O-line. O’Hara will be missed most by the Giants if he does not play.

On offense the Giants must run Jacobs as often as they can. Manning was successful last week against the Pats, yes, but the Bucs have the best set of CB in the NFl with Buchanon, Barber and Kelly. They are ball hawks and have the luxury of safety help deep if they miss on a pick because of the mostly Cover 2 that Tampa runs on defense. Where the Bucs have struggled this season on defense is against the run and the Giants must go after that weakness to win. Offensively, the Bucs are a “do whatever we can to not mess this game up” team. A lot of Earnest Grahm and then some shots down field to Galloway and Hilliard. Garcia is a great QB for this system because of his decision making. He knows to take chances only when presented and has done a fantastic job his entire career of protecting the football. The Giants strength is their D-line and the Bucs will run some counter runs and traps to neutralize the Giant playmakers on the D-line. I am taking the home team that has been consistent a lot more than the Giants.
Pick: Tampa (-3)

CHARGERS (-10) Titans: Hypothetical question. If both Jeff Fischer and Norv Turner were given identical teams, and these teams played on a neutral field, who do you think would win? Jeff Fischer is by far the better coach and will have his team ready for the Chargers this week. A Titan win would not overly shock me. The Titans will pound White and Brown as much as they can, try to limit LT and then hope that they can make a play at the end to win the game. This sounds nice and good, but the Titans lack the talent to stay with the Chargers for a full 60 minutes. Offensively, the Chargers will be a run first team. This philosophy sounds like a no brainer with the best in the game as your running back, but as was the case early this season, Norv Turner made the Chargers a pass oriented team. Phillip Rivers is not a QB that can take over a game. He can make plays, yes, but those plays happen most after the run has been established. Defensively, the Chargers have Louis Castillo back at DE. One man can change the complexion of a defense and Castillo does that. His pass rushing abilities help the Chargers get to the QB without the need of blitzing. A true stud at DE, Castillo is also great against the run. Watch for him to be double-teamed constantly this game. I am taking the Chargers this game, even though taking a Norv Turner team giving over 9 points is very scary. LT will not let the Chargers lose this game, either QB for the Titans is not awe inspiring, and I feel that the talent level heavily favors the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers (-10)

2007 NFL Wild Card Weekend, Saturday Games

2008-01-04T19:13:00.000-08:00

SEATTLE (-3) Washington: Washington carries a 4 game winning streak and momentum into the game. Todd Collins is playing way above his 36 year old, career journeyman self. Joe Gibbs will certainly give Portis as many carries as possible to limit mistakes by Collins. Portis had a decent year stat wise, rushing for 1262 yards, but 563 of those yards came in 4 games. That leaves 699 yards over the other 12 games on 209 carries, or 3.3 yards a carry. Will the aging Washington O-line open up some running lanes against the Seattle front 7? Seattle’s defense has playmakers at every level. Comeback player of the year candidate DE Patrick Kerny led the team in sacks and forced fumbles with 14 and 5 respectively. The line backers are the strength of their defense and are led by ILB Lofa Tatupu and an extremely talented Julian Peterson at OLB. Julian Peterson has been a favorite of mine since his San Fran days and he makes any defense better and faster. The secondary is solid, nothing spectacular, led by CB Marcus Trufant. Where the Seahawks are vulnerable, and where the Redskins will try to run is inside against a mediocre DT corp. Offensively, Seattle is a better team with Mourice Morris in the game rather than Alexander. Alexander has shown tentativeness into the hole and a reluctance to be hit the entire season. I see Seattle going with what worked best this season, a pass first offense. The horror show a few weeks ago against the Panthers aside, I am taking the Seahawks. They are at home and have the better, more established QB.
Pick: Seattle (-3)

Jacksonville (-2.5) PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh looks very shaky on defense right now. Against a poor Baltimore offense, the Steeler first team defense was continually gashed by running plays, a bad sign considering the Jags will pound away at the Steeler D with Fred Taylor. From their final 4 regular season games against the Pats, Rams, Jags and Ravens, the Steelers have given up an average of 373 yards from scrimmage a game. This is a huge number for a team that prides itself on defense. Offensively, Najah Davenport is no where near the talent level of Willie Parker. However, Davenport is a bigger and more natural north/south runner, whose physical nature may suit the Steelers better in this game. Whatever Najah can give the Steelers will benefit Ben Rothlisberger. He’s had an MVP type season and the ability to win big games. His post season career boasts 12 total TDs against 8 interception with 5 of those INTs coming in his rookie year of 2004. In regards to Jacksonville I hope for one thing, that they stay true to themselves and the game plans that have netted them 11 wins. Jacksonville is the physically tougher team and Del Rio will have them mentally prepared for this road playoff game. Del Rio made the decision to start Gerrard this season and it has paid off handsomely. Gerrard is poised, has accuracy, an above average arm and rarely makes mistakes. I can definitely see him leading the Jags to a road playoff victory. But again, I hope that Jax stays true to their offensive(run first then play action)/defensive (tough man to man with a blitz sprinkled in) philosophies, that they don’t over-think themselves into bad play calls ruining a drive or a game. Jacksonville has been the better, more consistent team this season.
Pick: Jacksonville (-2.5)

2007 NFL Awards

2008-01-03T08:00:00.000-08:00

MVP
Candidates:

Brian Westbrook: Incredibly gifted player who makes all he does look effortless. No wasted motion. Led the NFL in yards from scrimmage. No running back in football meant more to their team than Westbrook meant to the Eagles.

Tom Brady: Set record for TD passes and led New England to undefeated regular
season. Led league in completion percentage, TDs and yards passing all while throwing only 8 interceptions.

David Gerrard: 18 TD passes vs. only 3 interceptions. Outstanding poise and decision making in leading Jacksonville to the playoffs. Playing in only 12 games will hurt his chances.

Randy Moss: Set NFL record for most TD receptions in a season with 23. A freakish athlete, because of his size, speed and hands, no player in the NFL can guard Moss one on one. He is a member of the two most prolific offenses in NFL history, the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and the 2007 New England Patriots.

Tony Romo: Led Dallas to the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs with 4211 yards passing and 36 TD passes. A couple of terrible games along with a lack of production in the final weeks of the season will hinder his chances.

Honorable mentions: Brett Favre, Ben Rothlisberger, Ladainian Tomlinson, Payton Manning.

Winner: Tom Brady. The numbers are way to extraordinary to give the nod to any other candidate especially considering that New England went undefeated.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR NOT NAMES TOM BRADY:
Candidates:

Randy Moss: See above

Brian Westbrook: See above

Ladainian Tomlinson: Best all round running back in the game. Passion illustrated in post game press conferences when he is brought to tears because of losing. May end up as the most decorated back in history.

Honorable mentions: Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Adrian Peterson, Tony Romo.

Winner: Randy Moss. Will go down as on of the top 5 WRs of all time and this is his finest season to date.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:

Jarred Allen: Led the NFL in sacks with 15.5 in only 14 games played. Only playmaker on the Chief’s defensive line, so he is always battling double teams and half back chip blocks. Incredible combination of strength and quickness. Caught two TD passes this season as well.

Patrick Willis: Led the NFL as a rookie in total tackles with 174 and solo tackles with an outstanding 140. Is already the heart and soul of the San Francisco defense.

DeMarcus Ware: Led the Cowboys in sacks and forced fumbles with 14 and 4 respectively. He physically dominates blockers on the run and has the speed to rush the QB from the outside or cover a TE on passing downs.

Bob Sanders: Arguable, he means more to his team on defense than does any other player. There is no doubt that he is an incredible talent and the heart of Indi’s defense, but the lack of sufficient statistics may keep him from winning the prize.

Honorable Mentions: Julian Peterson, Albert Haynsworth, Brian Urlacher, Antonio Cromartie, Mike Vrabel, Patrick Kearney.

Winner: DeMarcus Ware. No defensive player really stood out from all the others this season. I went with Ware because he is the best defensive player on the #1 seeded team in the NFC.

COACH OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:

Dick Juron: Buffalo was a tough team with Juron having his players believing they can win every week. Had an opportunity to make the playoffs with wins in the last few weeks of the year, an excellent achievement in the very tough AFC, but a lack of experienced talent ultimately did them in. The Bills were 2 last second field goals away from a 9 win season. Buffalo has a good young core of players and will build on the success of this season.

Bill Belichick: No matter how much talent is on a team, and New England has plenty, it is an outstanding accomplishment to go undefeated in the regular season. The Pats are as mentally strong and prepared as they are talented. All coaches preach a “we will take it game by game” mantra, but no coach is better at keeping his players prepared on a game by game basis as is Belichick.

Jon Gruden: The Bucs went from a 4 win season a year ago to the division title this season. Tampa has the #2 overall defense in the league and an offense that protects the ball, doing enough to win. Gruden is extremely good at managing a game, putting his players in the right opportunities to make plays and maybe most importantly, not making any bone headed play calls to lose a game. The + 15 turnover difference is a testament to this.

Romeo Crennell: I have blasted Crennel a few times in my blog, but when all is said and done, his Cleveland Browns team 10 games this season. He made all the important decisions, with the best decision being to trade Frye after week one and put Anderson in.

Tony Dungy: With all the injuries on both sides of the ball, Dungy still found a way to get his team 13 wins and into the playoffs for what seems the 50th time in a row. He will certainly be regarded as one of the finest head coaches to ever don a whistle when his time is up.

Honorable mentions: Jack Del-Rio, Jeff Fischer, Mike McCarthy, Joe Gibbs.

Winner: Bill Belichick. As much as I want to give the award to Jon Gruden, 16-0 just stands out too far for me not to give it the ringleader of a perfect season.

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:

Marshawn Lynch: Extremely tough runner who was the focus of the Bills offense. Averaged over 85 yards a game and was 11th in the NFL with 1115 yards rushing.

Joe Thomas: Was best player on the Cleveland Brown offensive line that surprised many with their output this season.

Adrian Peterson: Second in the NFL in both rushing yards (1341) and rushing TDs (12). Set the NFL record for most rushing yards in a game with 296. Awesome combination of power, vision and speed.

Dwayne Bowe: Led all rookie WR in receiving yards, catches and TDs. Has the speed to be a deep threat, with the hands and size to be a possession receiver.

Winner: Adrian Peterson. Tempted to give the award to Joe Thomas, but Peterson’s record setting performance in November against the Chargers tilted the scales.

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:

Gaines Adams: Led rookies in sacks with 6. Started the last 8 games and is now an important piece of Tampa’s #2 ranked defense.

David Harris: Registered 127 tackles and 5 sacks for the Jets. Seems to always be in on the tackle and has great instincts for the LB position.

Patrick Willis: Led the NFL as a rookie in total tackles with 174 and solo tackles with an outstanding 140. Had a 20 tackle game against Tampa in week 16. Is already the heart and soul of the San Francisco defense.

Jonathan Beason: Not much notoriety for Beason because of the poor showing Carolina had this season. Registered 140 tackles with an interception and one fumble recovery.

Honorable Mentions: LaRon Landry, Leon Hall, Reggie Nelson, Darrelle Revis.

Winner: Patrick Willis. Going to the Pro Bowl as a rookie and will probably go every year for a decade or so.

NFL Week 17

2007-12-29T10:07:00.000-08:00

Last Week 6 – 9 – 0
Season 114 – 116 – 9

Due to the nature of the NFL in it’s final week, I will not be making picks against the spread. Many teams will undoubtedly play their 2nd and even 3rd string personnel this week and there is no way for me to know who is playing or how long they will play. Here are some thought going into the final week of the NFL regular season.

 The Giants need to look out for #1 and not worry themselves with beating the Patriots. Fifteen other weeks this year, teams have failed in beating the Pats and there is no good reason I have heard yet to warrant the Giants going full boar in hopes of derailing New England’s perfect season. With an undefeated regular season, the Pats must still win what will be two tough AFC playoff games and then the Super Bowl, assuming they make it that far. The Giants owe nothing to nobody but themselves and their playoff health. The thought of losing for the playoffs an injury prone Jacobs, a key O-line starter or a top defensive player is enough to convince me that the Giants should go with their second unit for most of the game and get ready for an underrated Buccaneer team next week. Furthermore, who really thinks the Giants will beat the Patriots with a full lineup anyway.

 I would like to see the Jaguars play their first string for the first half in their game against Houston. I would sit Fred Taylor for the game because of his past muscle ailments. The Jaguars are in a grove, showing great offensive rhythm that they will need next week in the Wild Card round. Houston’s tough and fast defense will be a great warm-up for next week against their probable opponent, the Steelers.

 Of the three teams, Washington, Minnesota and N.O., vying for the final NFC playoff spot, N.O would be the most entertaining and I will be rooting for them to make it in after starting 0-4.

 Tony Dungy has a history of resting his starters when he knows his playoff fate. He also has learned that too much time away from game action can cause rust and lack of offensive rhythm. Do not be surprised if he keeps Manning and the 1st unit in for the first half with the exception of Addai sitting out the entire game. There is also motivation to keep a divisional opponent out of the playoffs, which will happen if Cleveland beats S.F. and the Titans lose to the Colts.

 I am rooting for the Titans to make it over the Browns based on this: Romeo Crennel looks scared when the game is tight. Staying home last weekend, I got to watch Cleveland lose to Cincinnati and every time the camera panned over to Crennel, he looked nervous, yet expressionless. I do not see this guy having his team prepared for a road playoff game. Tennessee’s Fischer is a proven winner, a leader who has made his teams better with his coaching and will have his team ready to go next week if they make it there.

 Herm Edwards is back at the Meadowlands. Big deal.

 This could be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and I hope it is. This man gets no respect for doing so much in his career with so little to work with. Name me another QB who has been better than McNabb at bringing out the best in mediocre WRs. It is not a coincidence the year management gave him a competent WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. I can’t wait for Philly fans to clamor for a new QB for the next 5 years as their team disintegrates. Hopefully I am wrong and Kolb turns into a stud QB, but a talent like Mcnabb’s only comes around once in a while and Philly never game him the recognition he deserves.

NFL Week 16 Picks

2007-12-22T23:24:00.000-08:00

Last Week 9 – 7 – 0
Season 108 – 107 – 9

Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Post. HOME Team in CAPS.

Pittsburgh (-7) ST. LOUIS:
Pick: Steelers (-7)

Dallas (-13) CAROLINA:
Pick: Dallas (-13)

Cleveland (-2.5) CINNCINNATTI: This is a big game for Romeo Crennel. A lot of people wonder how good of a head coach he is and this is a game that the Browns must be well prepared for. Crennel is regarded as a defensive minded coach. Cincinnati, with their lousy record and bad year, still have a very capable offense and would love to keep an in-state division rival out of the playoffs. Crennel has to get the right game plan established to limit the Bengal playmakers and put his defensive players in the right positions to make plays. Cleveland will move the ball behind a determined and angry Jemal Lewis.
Pick: Cleveland (-2.5)

Green Bay (-8.5) CHICAGO: A lot of pride still left on the Chicago defensive side of the ball. However, injuries have made the talent level go down from elite to average. Ryan Grant is being a bully at running back, giving the Packers much needed balance heading into the playoffs. As long as Favre keeps with what has worked this season, that being a short, controlled passing attack, only throwing deep when it is there, the Pack should be able to move the ball. Green Bay is playing well on defense, but Al Harris does not deserve a Pro Bowl spot at CB. Antrell Rolle of Arizona has had a tremendous year and deserved a roster spot over Al Harris. Chicago is a horrible offensive football team right now. Spread seems about 2 points too high considering they are in Chicago, but Green Bay is still gunning for home field throughout the playoffs and seem well prepared every week.
Pick: Green Bay (-8.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Houston: My heart is telling me Houston, but my mind is telling me Indi. I am going with Houston because this is their Super Bowl and they are playing well on both sides of the ball. Dungy is known to take the foot off the gas late in the season and the slowing down may start in the 2nd half of this game.
Pick: Houston (+7)

LIONS (-4.5) Chiefs: No gambler should come any where near this game. Two teams that are very inconsistent, with questionable coaching and both teams have probably thrown in the towel on the season. Detroit has more talent on offense and they are at home so I’ll take them, I guess.
Pick: Detroit (-4.5)

Giants (-2.5) BILLS: The Giant play- calling last week caused me to yell at the TV on a far too consistent basis. Example, it’s 22- 10, Giants have the ball at the Skins 20 yard line, early in the 4th Q. Jacobs has over 100 yards and the offensive line is moving the Skins d-line. Incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG were the next 4 plays. Awful. Manning put the ball in the air 51 times on a day that begged for Jacobs to run 35 times. Jacobs had 25 carries for 130 yards and should have had more. Will the Giants have the same approach this week in Buffalo? I don’t know and I do not care. Buffalo has been a tough team to beat the entire year and Dick Juron seems to have the players and the game plan ready every week, something that can not be said for the Giants and their coaching staff. Add in no Shockey and a hobbled Burress, the Giants are in trouble. Unless they give the ball to Jacobs a lot more than they put the ball in the air, the Giant playoff hopes will be in the balance next week against the Pats.
Pick: Bills (+2.5)

TITANS (-8.5) Jets: Young played a decent game last week, not doing anything spectacular, but more importantly, not doing anything to lose the game. The game plan for Tennessee will revolve around a ball control ground game. It will probably work, but watch how well MLB David Harris plays this game. The rookie out of Michigan is having a fine year and always seems to be in on the tackle. The Jets are not as bad as their record and I do not think they should be a 8.5 point underdog. However, there seems to be a play or two that change momentum in every game, and where those swings were going the Jet way last year, they seem to be going against them this year. The Titans are at home and still looking for a playoff birth.
Pick: Titans (-8.5)

PATRIOTS (-22) Dolphins: Tuna is coming to Miami!! Let’s see how long he hangs out. Bill Parcells loves leaving organizations before his contract is expired, but somehow gets a pass every time he does. From Wikipedia, “In 1992, Parcells made a handshake agreement to become head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the last minute, Parcells opted not to take the job. Parcells did not feel the situation was right for him at that time. Tampa Bay owner Hugh Culverhouse said, "I feel like I've been jilted at the altar." Parcells left the Patriots after disagreements with owner Robert Kraft; Parcells felt he did not have enough input into player personnel decisions.” He left the Cowboys after a good year in 2007 and could have been guiding them now. No one is sure why he did not come back with the Cowboys but it was probably money. Look, I think he is a good coach, however, he now has control of an entire organization regarding personnel and coaching hires, but has little experience with these responsibilities. Given his age and past record of leaving teams when things are not totally going his way, it will be interesting to see how long he stays.
Pick: Patriots (-22)

JAGUARS (-13) Raiders: I am not sure who replaces Willie Parker in the Pro Bowl, but it better be Fred Taylor. The jaguars are playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball and David Gerrard is having a fantastic season. He made one bad pass last week against the Steelers, a pick off early in the 4th Q. He has a strong, accurate arm, is poised in the pocket, and is the QB Jacksonville has been looking for for four years. Del Rio has the Jags believing they are an elite team and Jacksonville will continue to play that way against an inferior team this week.
Pick: Jags (-13)

SAINTS (-3) Eagles: I remember watching Marques Colston last season thinking, “he’s fast and has decent hands, but is he tough, will he make the catch over the middle as he is getting hit?” Colston has continuously made the tough catches this season and is blossoming into an elite WR. Drew Breese is making the other receivers around Colston into better targets than they really are, the same way Donovan McNabb made all the garbage Philly receivers better early in his career. New Orleans is lacking on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is clicking with a determined Aaron Stecker giving NO a between the tackle, north-south runner. New Orleans is at home and still looking at a playoff spot if things fall the right way.
Pick: NO (-3)

VIKINGS (-6.5) Redskins: Still don’t understand why Peterson is playing. He tears a ligament in his knee and it is deemed “minor”? The doctors know a lot more than I do, but I hope they are not playing around this young man’s future.
Pick: Vikings (-6.5)

CARDINALS (-10) Falcons: I officially announce my candidacy for the vacant Atlanta Falcon head coaching position. I’ll take the job at $150,000 a year for 5 years and I promise not to quit. When is the last time Arizona covered a 10 point spread as a favorite? When was the last time they were a 10 point favorite?
Pick: Falcons (+10)

SEAHAWKS (-11) Ravens: Shawn Alexander looks scared to get hit. All season he has looked pitiful and should not be a first string RB for this or any other team. Mourice Morris has shown toughness all season and deserves first team reps. Brian Billick officially lost his scrotum last weekend when he kicked the FG at the end of regulation instead of going for the TD from 2 feet out. I hope Troy Smith starts this game for Baltimore, he deserves the nod over a season long ineffective Kyle Boller.
Pick: Seahawks (-11)

Buccaneers (-5.5) 49RS: The Bucs are a division winner and need to beat up on a team looking towards next season.
Pick: Bucs (-5.5)

CHARGERS (-8.5) Broncos: I picked the Chargers as the AFC representative and I am sticking with it. If San Diego practices a run first then play-action offensive game plan, they can beat the Colts and the Patriots. Underrated DE Luis Castillo is close to being 100% and will give the Chargers defense a big boost when he gets back from an early season ankle injury.
Pick: Chargers (-8.5)

NFl Week 16 Saturday Night

2007-12-22T11:10:00.000-08:00

Dallas (-10.5) CAROLINA: Dallas is vying for home field throughout the NFC playoffs so they must come into this game with a kill mentality. Romo had a stinker last week but his thumb injury contributed to some of his throwing problems. Romo participated fully in practice on Friday. To talk of his new girlfriend as a distraction is fodder for pundits with little to talk about. I am certain that last weekend was not the first game he had a hot girlfriend watching him play. Dallas will move the ball against Carolina. This is a must win, get playoff ready game for Dallas and have too much talent on offense for the Panthers to keep up with for 60 minutes.
Pick: Dallas (-10.5)

NFL Week 16 Thursday Night

2007-12-20T16:55:00.000-08:00

Steelers (-7.5) RAMS: Pittsburgh needs to get their act together before the playoffs start. The offense was inconsistent and Ben Rothlisberger looked weak last week against the Jags until the 4th quarter. If not for a brutal Jaguar punt in the 2nd Q and bad play calling by Del Rio when they were up 22-7 in the 4th Q, the score would not have been as close as the final 29-22 tally. Polumalu played an incredible game last week. One play in particular stands out. Gerrard scrambled out of the pocket on 3rd down late in the 1st Q and appeared to be heading for a first down. Polumalu seemed to come from nowhere to stop Gerrard short of the 1st down with a perfect ankle tackle. The closing speed to Gerrard on the overhead replay was impressive. The Rams are not the pushovers they were from the beginning of the season so this is not an easy game to pick. Jackson has the ability to take a game over and Bulger can still get the ball to Holt and Bruce. Damn shame I can’t watch this game from the comfort of my couch.
Pick: Steelers (-7.5)

NFL Week 15 Picks

2007-12-15T10:19:00.001-08:00

Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Last Week: 10 – 6 – 0
Season: 99 – 100 – 9

Broncos (-1) TEXANS:
Pick: Texans (+1)

Bengals (-8.5) 49ers: You figure that the Bengals should be able to move the ball on a depleted 49er defense. Does a score line of 27- 13 seem possible, I think so, but what makes me think twice about taking the Bengals is Frank Gore. Anyone who watched him tear apart the Cardinals a couple weeks back saw why this young man has such a bright future ahead of him. His power and speed is impressive and I fear that he could take this game over as he did against Arizona. Then I see the QB for the Niners is going to be Shaun Hill, a 6th year pro from Maryland who led them to the Orange Bowl and a #10 BCS ranking in 2001-2002 season. At a time in the NFL when un-drafted or under regarded QBs seem to be excelling, maybe it is Shaun Hill’s time. Why not, I’m going with the Niners. The game is on the NFL network, so unless you are already in a bar with the channel or if you have fantasy playoff implications on the game, who is going to go out of their way for a Niner- Bengal game on a Saturday night.
Pick: Niners (+8.5)

PATRIOTS (-23.5) Jets: There are 4 instances this year that I can think of off the top of my head where Mangini failed to trust his offensive line and Thomas Jones on a 4th and very short at or near mid-field. Opening game against the Pats on the very first drive of the season, week 2 against the Bills on the 1st or second Jet drive, against the Giants and last week against the Browns. There are probably more. To continuously deny faith in your line and RB leads to failure when your team is at short yard/goaline situations and a run is called for. Now look at the Pats. Time and time again this season Belichick has eschewed a punt or FG on 4th and short to go for the TD or 1st down. This instills confidence, poise and a “we will get the yardage needed” attitude that permeates through an offense and the team as a whole. Now, in regards to this game and the spread. We all know of spygate, the bad blood between the organizations and the tendency for the Pats to beat down their opponents without mercy. Funny thing is that I am taking the Jets. This is based on a forecast for miserable conditions Sunday in Gillette Stadium and I still feel that the Jets are a quality team even though their record is awful. Mangini needs to strap on a pair and coach to win, without fear of media scrutiny if he decides to go for the TD/1st down rather than kick a FG/punt.
Pick: Jets (+23.5)

GIANTS (-4.5) Redskins: At home, a playoff bound team has to beat an inferior opponent. The Giants need to come out and beat the Redskins down, not for anyone to say, “oh look, the Giants really gave it to the Skins”, but for a confidence boost to a team that has struggled at home. The Giants must also prepare for the playoffs by getting their game plan strait. Run until they can not and then play-action. The Giant offensive line is playing at a very high level and with three competent backs, a run first offense is the way to go.
Pick: Giants (-4.5)

SAINTS (-3.5) Cardinals: Interesting game. Warner back indoors on turf throwing to a merry-go-round of talented receivers, Breese playing very well going against an athletic Arizona defense and both teams still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Cool stuff. I am taking Breese and the Saints based on Aaron Stecker giving the Saints a decent running game and Breese really playing well the last few weeks. If Coach Payton calls a normal play in the 4th Q against the Bucs a few weeks back, rather than the reverse, the Saints would have playoff destiny in their own hands rather than needing a Minnesota loss or two during the final three weeks.
Pick: Saints (-3.5)

BUCS (-13.5) Falcons: When the going gets tough, the scared tuck tail and run, huh Bobby Patrino. So fake. If you were a friend of this guy, would you trust him. “I’ll pick you up at 9 AM. Serious, we’ll go golfing and then we’ll grab some lunch. Yeah, yeah, they know me there, but I’ll make reservations anyway”. You’ll be standing out on your porch at 10 AM still getting his voice mail. I hope whoever is coaching this team now gives Jerious Norewood the ball 20 times. A very talented ball player, Norewood needs to get more than the 6-8 touches a game he has been getting. They named him the starter last week, was in there for the first play of the game, and then was taken out for the next 3 series’. The Bucs are a good team with Garcia in the lineup. He is expected to start so I will take the Bucs even though this is a too high of a spread. I would have guessed 9.5.
Pick: Bucs (-13.5)

Ravens (-3.5) DOLPHINS: In the name of Dan Marino, win a game. I am certain if the Dolphins asked Marino to start the last 3 games of the season he would. Someone explain to me why Kyle Boller is starting over Troy Smith in Baltimore? Smith came in at the end of last week’s Colt debacle and I said to myself, “where has this guy been all season”.
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)

BROWNS (-5.5) Bills: Playoff feel to this game. The Bills match up well on defense with the Brown playmakers. Terrence McGee is an underrated CB and will match up with Braylon Edwards. Strong side LB Angelo Crowell will try to contain Kellen Winslow who is playing at a very high level this season. If Crowell holds him to 80 yards or less it will be a good day. If the Bills can stop Jamal Lewis to 100 yards or less, they win the game. Buffalo has a toughness about them that has fueled their winning record. They do not get fazed by the opponent and have Marshawn Lynch back to get them going on offense. Trent Edwards has played well the last couple of weeks and seems to have a good amount of poise in the pocket. Browns have yet to develop a killer instinct which almost hurt them last week against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)

Packers (-10) RAMS: The Packers are a better team but the spread seems a bit high considering the Rams are starting Bulger and are a veteran team at home, playing for pride and some kind of redemption for this awful season.
Pick: Rams (+10)

STEELERS (-3.5) Jaguars: The Steelers have not impressed me as much as their record might dictate. Not sold on the Jaguars entering the season, my mind has changed the last 5 weeks or so. Gerrard is playing at a very high level and Fred Taylor looks young running the ball. Fred Taylor the most underrated back of my generation. The Jaguars are the tougher team and have a good bit of momentum going into this game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)

Seahawks (-7.5) PANTHERS: The Panthers are a very bad team and should not pose a threat to Seattle this week. Seattle, with a pass first game plan, has started clicking on offense. They will need to run the ball better in the playoffs to advance, especially when the weather is not conducive to throwing. This is a good game get Alexander some stats and a confidence boost. Alexander looks very hesitant at the line and seems to be avoiding contact. Morris has been the better runner this season.
Pick: Seattle (-7.5)

Titans (-4) CHIEFS: If the Titans are serious about the playoffs, a win in KC has to be accomplished. The Titans are the better team with a better coach. A concern for Tennessee has to be the inconsistent play of Vince Young. He looked real good against the Texans two weeks ago, but played a poor game last week against the Chargers. He must play well the next 3 weeks for the Titans to make the playoffs. These three games will be test of Vince Young’s mettle early in his career.
Pick: Titans (-4)

Colts (-10.5) RAIDERS: Payton Manning is really starting to connect with Anthony Gonzalez , who has picked up on their complicated offense very quickly. This is a great development for the playoffs. When Marvin Harrison comes back, it will give Manning four viable options to throw to: Wayne, Harrison, Clark and Gonzalez. Indi is too much team for the Raiders to handle and this should be a walk over for the Colts. Coach Kiffen, can we watch Russel in an expanded role the last three weeks?

CHARGERS (-10) Lions: It’s really not that hard to play call for the Chargers. Run, Run, Run, Run, play-action, run, run, run, play-action, run, run, run, run, play-action. Norv, you have the best back in football with a competent back-up and a very good O-line, run the ball. I think this line is way too high, but after last week’s awful loss to the Cowboys, the Lions may be ready to give up.
Pick: Chargers (-10)

COWBOYS (-10.5) Eagles: The Cowboys have too many weapons for any defense to handle. Witten is a mismatch against the Eagle LBs and T.O. will be fired up. Jones and Barber will be able to run the ball on the Eagles. The question is will the Eagles score enough to cover? Even with Westbrook playing at an MVP level, I do not see the Eagles keeping up with the Cowboys in Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)

VIKINGS (-10) Chicago: Is this really the spread? Have the Bears fallen from grace this fast? Are the Vikings this good? The line-makers know more than me.
Pick: Vikings (-10)

NFL Week 15 Thursday Night

2007-12-13T06:42:00.000-08:00

Denver (-1) HOUSTON: If Andre Johnson plays the seven games he missed, the Texans would have 9 wins and playoff destiny in their own hands. Denver and Houston both stand at 6-7, and the only way either will make the playoffs is to run the table and then hope that Cleveland, Tennessee and Buffalo fade down the stretch. This is a lot to ask for so it seems that both teams are playing for pride rather than a playoff push. Sage Rosenfels will start for Houston. He has looked very good in this offense when pressed into action and should be able to move the ball. Houston is the better all round football team and has played with more consistency than Denver. Add to that home field and a defense playing better by the week, the Texans should be victorious.
Pick: Houston (+1)

Liverpool vs. Marseille

2007-12-11T09:14:00.000-08:00

Liverpool will visit Marseille this evening with the winner moving on to the knockout stage of this year's Champion's League Tournament. Team pride is at stake here, but also millions of dollars in revenue that goes with the knockout stage. Liverpool's manager Rafa Benitez rested Torres, Gerrard and Carragher this past weekend in a 3-1 loss to Reading to have them fresh for this match. "Right now, the Champions League is the most important competition for us," said Benitez. "We were really disappointed to lose the Reading game, but we're only thinking about this one and finding the right solutions."

The result in Anfield went Marseille's way when they played in October, and the French side will be ready to go, "We won't set out looking for a draw," said coach Erik Gerets. "Our preparations have been normal but, from the first second on Tuesday, the players will know they are in a special game, more intense than in the league. It's the match the fans have been waiting for and there'll be adrenalin aplenty on the pitch. We won't freeze, we'll be like lions." Marseille has played well of late, but the competition they have faced pales in comparison to the class that Liverpool will show today.

Liverpool is built for Champion's League play. As clear favorites to win the group, Liverpool played with a complacency that resulted in 2 losses from 3 games to start the group stage. In desperation mode, they have since beaten Bestikas and Porto handily and have knockout stage entry one win away. Liverpool is the better team, have much more experience in the big games, will be the aggressors and will hand Marseille a drubbing today.

NFL Week 14 Picks

2007-12-09T09:27:00.000-08:00

Last week 5 - 11 - 0
Season 89 - 94 - 9

Washington -3
Eagles -3
Browns -3
Jaguars -10.5
Lions +10.5
Dolphins +7
Packers -10.5
Patriots -10.5
Chargers pk
Bengals -6.5
Texans +3
Cardinals +7
Vikings -7
Chiefs +6.5
Ravens +9
Falcons +4

Redskins defeat Bears

2007-12-07T12:01:00.000-08:00

I missed the first half, and the two QB injuries that happened. I feel for both of these men and wish them the best with their knees. Jason Campbell is a tremendous talent. Watching him, you can see his poise and confidence in the pocket. He has a great arm and can run with the ball. He has made some rookie mistakes and needs to work on his accuracy, but Gibbs made a correct assessment of Campbell's talents when he moved up in the draft a few years ago to get him.

What was Lovie Smith doing kicking the FG with 7 minutes to go and down by 7 points? The FG turned a 1 TD game into ..... a 1 TD game. You are at the 4 yard line, go for the TD. If unsuccessful, you at least have the Bears pinned deep in their territory. A very bad decision. I also did not agree with the play calling on 2nd and 3rd down before the ill- advised FG. I am not a huge fan of the fade route , but if you are going to try it twice, make sure one of them heads into the direction of Bernard Berrian. Both fades were to Greg Olsen, who is bigger than the CB covering him, but will not out-jump the CB.

Week 14 Thursday Night Game

2007-12-06T15:32:00.000-08:00

WASHINGTON (-3) Chicago: If you are betting this game, you really have a problem. How do you analyze a game between two underachieving teams, who both lost winnable games at home last week, and are now playing on short rest? I am going with the Redskins here because they are at home and I think Jason Campbell is a better QB than the Bear tandem of Grossman and Griese. The Redskins should get a running game going against the Bears and Washington has enough on defense to keep the Bear offense in check. Kick the ball away from Hester on punts, take your chances on kickoffs.
Pick: Redskins (-3)

NFL Week 13 Picks

2007-12-02T08:35:00.000-08:00

Last weekend 7 – 6 – 0
Season 84 – 83 – 9

Spreads are curtesy of the Friday New York post. HOME team in CAPS.
My pick is the first team listed.

Packers (+7) COWBOYS
BEARS (+2) Giants
Jets (+1) DOLPHINS
Falcons (+3) RAMS
REDSKINS (-5.5) Bills
VIKINGS (-4) Lions
Texans (+3.5) TITANS
Jaguars (+6.5) COLTS
Chargers (-6) CHIEFS
EAGLES (-3) Seahawks
49ers (+3) PANTHERS
Bucs (+3.5) SAINTS
Browns (pk) CARDS
Broncos (-3.5) RAIDERS
Bengals (+7) STEELERS
Patriots (-20) RAVENS

Thursday Night Football

2007-11-29T06:11:00.000-08:00

DALLAS (-7) Packers: Still do not trust the Dallas defense. Packers will spread the field and take advantage of the weak Cowboy secondary. It would be wise for the Packers to stick with a pass first mentality and not try to establish the run to keep the Dallas offense off the field. To change offensive strategy will only get the Packers into trouble. The Cowboys have an offense that can feature the run or pass, but the Packer defense matches up well with the Cowboy play-makers, especially at LB vs. Jason Whitten and Julius Jones/Marion Barber.
Pick: Packers (+7)

NFL Week 12 Notes

2007-11-28T06:28:00.000-08:00

Some thoughts from a few of the games I watched this weekend.

49ers defeat Cardinals: Frank Gore played a tremendous game considering it looked over after what appeared to be a bad ankle injury in the first half. Juking, slashing and then running over people, all those watching this young man were treated to his enormous talent. Arizona coach Ken Whizenhunt made a call with 10 minutes to go in the game that I was not to fond of. Trailing by 3, 4th and 1 from the Niner 2, Whizenhunt went for the TD rather than the tying FG. Sure, if you do not get it you pin the Niners deep and odds are that you will get the ball back with good field position, but there is no guarantee that the Niners, who have been moving the ball the entire game, would not drive the field and put up some more points. The FG was the correct call but the TD succeeded giving Zona a temporary lead. I am also critical of Arizona’s play calling after San Fran punted in OT to give the Cards the ball at the 3 yard line. Warner is not mobile at all so he will not be able to escape any rush. Why not run the ball on 1st down in hopes of picking up some yards and breathing room? Arizona was averaging 4 yards a carry at this point. Warner should also know better in this spot. A veteran QB must feel the rush and get rid of the ball to avoid the safety/fumble. He looked lost on the final play of the game.

Browns defeat Texans: The biggest play of this game was the Owen Daniels fumble after the catch with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd Q. Daniels had the 1st down but did not see a defender behind him who hit the football out of his grasp. It would have been 1st and 10 at the Cleveland 22 with Houston trailing by 7. After the fumble, Jamal Lewis took over and won the game. It took the Texan defense 3 or 4 players to get him down on every touch. Jamal Lewis is only 29 years old and looks to have a lot left in the tank. Derrick Anderson was spot on with almost all of his passes. If not for a few drops, the Browns would have won by a larger margin. Kellen Winslow is a mismatch for a LB or a CB. The Browns have a real shot at winning in the playoffs if the defense plays the way they did against Houston. Houston is likely out of the playoff picture. For the first time this season, Matt Schaub looked nervous and Andre Johnson was a non-factor.

Patriots defeat Eagles: A very entertaining game. Brady looked fantastic again, winning the game by taking what the defense gave him. Feeley played well. People will knock him for throwing the INT with 4 minutes to go. It was a bad pass, yes, but the play should have not happened. 4 minutes to go, 2nd and 4 from the NE 29, run the ball. Andy Reid, you have a standout RB with Westbrook and a very good O-line, run the ball here. People will say that the Eagles gave the rest of the league a blueprint for beating the Patriots. Give me a break. The Eagles made great plays on offense, sure, and have an All-Pro secondary, but let me ask you this. If you watched the game, was there a point at which you felt the Eagles had a real shot at winning? Do you think Brady and company would have put themselves in a position to win if the Eagles’ tied or took the lead on their penultimate drive? The Patriots are a team that will not lose unless the other team plays the perfect game and has the talent on both sides of the ball to execute the perfect game. Who in the NFL matches that description?

Vikings defeat Giants: I always assume 1 Manning bone-headed INT, but this was ridiculous. He looked confused and most of his passes were off the back foot, a sign of intimidation. The Giants better win this week or their season will meet Mr. Hanky for some Christmas cheer. Minnesota is back in the playoff hunt, congratulations. I still say that they should rest Peterson until next season. Chester Taylor is a very capable RB.

Raiders defeat Chiefs: By now, most people know of Herm Edward’s decision to go for the 1st down on 4th and 1, when the Chiefs were down by 3, at the Raider 23 yard line. What is this guy doing? How do you not kick the 40 yard FG to tie the game? The only reason to not kick the FG is if your kicker is hurt, which was not the case here. Gregg Easterbrook, a columnist who contributes to ESPN Page 2 every week in his very well written and researched Tuesday Morning Quarterback, called Herm Edwards going for it “a smart, high-percentage decision”. Agreed, it was high percentage. One yard after you already have over 150 on the ground should be attainable. The execution and lack of a play action pass threat contributed to the Chiefs not getting the 1st down. Calling it smart is debatable. Even an average NFL kicker should be able to make a 40 yard FG on a consistent basis. Tie the game up and rely on your defense against an offense led by the never clutch Dante Cullpepper. Please, Coach Kiffen, get Jamarcus Russel some playing time before the season is over.

Tampa Bay defeats Washington: Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level so any extended time missed will be detrimental to Tampa’s playoff push. Washington has a real gem in Jason Campbell. He made some rookie mistakes again this game, but the talent is obvious. I really like the way he stands tall in the pocket, almost never looking rattled.

Seattle beats St. Louis: Just when you think Frerrotte could actually win a game, 1st and goal from the Seattle 6, he reminds us why he is a back-up. The 1st down pass to Bruce that hit him in the ankles after hitting the ground was atrocious. The 4th down fumbled snap was inexcusable. Steven Jackson looked healthy. Seattle was not very impressive, but won another game, moving them closer to the division title.

San Diego defeats Baltimore: San Diego beat up on a Baltimore team that is playing an extremely poor level of football in every facet of the game. Billick should give McGahee the ball 25 times a game, but for some reason believes that Kyle Boller can run the 4 and 5 wide out-shotgun sets. Let me be offensive coordinator for either one of these teams. I guarantee better results than they are getting now.

NFL Week 12 Picks

2007-11-24T14:32:00.000-08:00

Thanksgiving 1 – 2 – 0
Season 77 – 77 – 9

Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Daily News. HOME team in CAPS.

GIANTS (-7) Vikings: There is a chance Adrian Peterson will play this weekend. Why? Save this young man from further complications to his knee, sit him for the year, go find a few WRs and DBs and come back next year ready to make a run at the playoffs. A lot of injuries on the Giant side. The Vikings will continue to run the ball and they will do enough on defense to keep it close. Vikings win this outright if Manning can not throw in what will be a cold and windy day.
Pick: Vikings (+7)

BEARS (-1.5) Broncos: Both teams are disappointments so far, but I like Denver for a few reasons. Javon Walker is going to play. The Bears are still hurting on defense. Wheel of quarterback is spinning again in Chicago with Grossman back at helm. The Bronco defense is getting better as the season goes on and Denver has played consistently well the past few weeks.
Pick: Broncos (+1.5)

Titans (-1.5) BENGALS: Do not trust either team at this point, but Tennessee has a better coach, a solid running game and a better defense.
Pick: Titans (-1.5)

JAGUARS (-8) Bills: Dick Juron has the Bills playing solid football this season, a credit to him for motivating and the players for playing hard. This seems like a mismatch to me however. Marshawn Lynch will not be playing and without him, their toughness on offense diminishes considerably. Jacksonville is playing with determination on both sides of the ball. Del Rio will not let Jacksonville look past Buffalo with a chance to win the division.
Pick: Jaguars (-8)

CHIEFS (-5.5) Raiders: I am still perplexed at Kiffen’s decision to not play Jamarcus Russell. Happy to see Priest Holmes retire before a forever-in-a-wheelchair-hit happened. He never should have come out of retirement in the first place. I am going with the home team here.
Pick: Chiefs (-5.5)

BROWNS (-3) Texans: Andre Johnson turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff contender. The Texans are better defensively than the Browns and offensively, will be able to move the ball on a weak Brown defense. Who would have though that this game would have serious playoff implications when the season started? I am looking forward to this game.
Pick: Texans (+3)

Seahawks (-3) RAMS: This is the Super Bowl for St. Louis. To beat Seattle at home and throw a monkey wrench into their division title aspiration will salvage some of this injury plagued and forgetful season. Besides, I’m not sold on Seattle.
Pick: Rams (+3)

BUCS (-3) Redskins: Washington has played well the past few weeks and I look for that trend to continue. But, I am taking Tampa here. They are the home team, playing for a division title, Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level and their defense is getting better by the week.
Pick: Bucs (-3)

Saints (-2.5) CAROLINA: Carolina seems more lost than N.O. in a game that few people outside of the respective cities and those with fantasy football interests will care about.
Pick: Saints (-2.5)

CARDINALS (-10.5) 49ers: Zona is playing well on both sides of the ball, are at home, looking to get into the division/ wild-card race and are playing a team deep in an offensive funk. Scary part of this game is if Frank Gore gets some room to run, he can single handedly win this game for the Niners. Expect Arizona to load the box and make Dilfer beat them.
Pick: Zona (-10.5)

CHARGERS (-9.5) Ravens: How do you analyze a game where both head coaches have their heads up their asses? I’ll take the home team and move on from there. That does not feel right, I’ll take the points. No, Billick is going 5 wide with Kyle Boller, that pick does not seem right either. Do I even want to watch this game? Whatever.
Pick: Chargers (-9.5)

PATRIOTS (-22) Eagles: I am taking the Eagles because they have a secondary with playmakers and a defensive coordinator that has a blitzing mentality. Maybe that will slow the Patriots down. Maybe not. I think the real reason I am taking the Eagles is because I am an Eagle fan and can not pick against them with a 3 TD head start, regardless if McNabb goes or not. This may be the game Brady gets Giloolyed when he is still on the field in the 4th Q up by 32.
Pick: Eagles (+22)

STEELERS (-16) Dolphins: Dolphins are still playing hard and though they may not win this game, are still playing for organizational and personal pride.
Pick: Dolphins (+16)

Thanksgiving Picks

2007-11-22T09:34:00.000-08:00

Last Week 8 - 7 - 1
Season 76 - 75 - 9

Packers (-3) LIONS

Jets (+11.5) COWBOYS

FALCONS (+14) Colts

Croatia defeats England

2007-11-22T08:59:00.000-08:00

A two goal lead in years passed, Croatia would have gone into a defensive shell in hopes of protecting the lead. Very few things in sports frustrate me more than a defensive shell in soccer. I see the logic for this strategy with 5 or so minutes to go in the game to protect a lead, but not at the quarter hour when Croatia made it 2-0. I was thrilled that the Croats continued to press for a third goal. England did come back with determined football to tie the match, and people will say that if Croatia went into a shell and only counter attacked, no way England scores two goals. Maybe. This may be true, but I have seen too many Croatia games and know that a defensive shell is not the mentality that fits our players. I remember open to everyone, on field protests when former head coach Kranjacar pulled the players back. Too many times Croatia was asked to protect a lead with much time left in the match, only to give up a goal or two, and then be asked to turn up the dial to score again. The Croats have always played football with flair and a scoring mentality, and there are too many talented players on the roster to ask them to play a shell. I will argue that the reason Croatia won this game was because they pressed for more goals when the score was 2-0. England played very well in the second half to tie the score, but it was evident that the constant Croatia attack wore England out by the 75th minute. I applaud Slavan Bilic with the way he is handling the Croatian National Team and his constant attack mentality is a refreshing alternative to the lackluster, just do enough to win philosophy of previous coaches.

England played with a lot of heart in the second half to tie the score with Beckham and Crouch being catalysts for most of the English chances. I am not a huge supporter of Crouch, but there is no denying his penchant for scoring in big games. His goal against Croatia was world class. Gerrard is England’s best all round football player and I cringed his every touch because I know he is a player that steps up strong in the big spots. The same can not be true about Frank Lampard and Joe Cole. I have documented in my EPL preview post that I feel Lampard is on the downside of his career and never seems to show up for a big contest. Aside from getting the penalty kick to go in the net, Lampard was non-existent. He is no longer a quality option for the English National side. Joe Cole is another player whose reputation exceeds his performance. He had many touches yesterday, no real threat came from any of them and most resulted in him flopping onto the pitch. How he continues to get time with the national side and Chelsea is beyond me.

Would the outcome been different if Rooney and Terry played? I would say yes. Along with Gerrrard, Rooney and Terry are the best English players and would have certainly made an impact on this contest. There is no saying England would have won the match. Croatia is a talented side and came ready to rumble. A possible blessing in disguise, this loss will propel the FA to look at the weaknesses on a team with a number of them, make some changes and ultimately have a successful run at the 2010 World Cup.

NFL Week 11 Notes

2007-11-20T20:21:00.000-08:00

Houston defeats New Orleans: In my AFC North Preview, I stated it would be hard for me to not have Andre Johnson in a top 5 NFL receiver list. He turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff team. The offense flows better with him in the lineup. Johnson demands safety help, ensuring a 7 man box for the running game to be established. The Texan defense, young and very fast, will be a strength for years to come if the group stays together. Mario Williams played with a lot of emotion and had a huge impact on the game. People will say it was because of playing against Reggie Bush, I think not. Watching Houston a lot this year, Williams has played hard and with determination on every down and is becoming a force, a guy that needs a double team or at least a chip from the RB. New Orleans played with some confidence early on. The Reggie Bush fumble was a killer with the score 7-3 Houston in the 1st Q. I liked Payton going for it on 4th and 10 from Houston’s 45 in the 3rd Q with the score 14-10 Houston. I liked Payton going for in on 4th and 2 from the Houston 43 with 12 minutes to play and the score 20- 10 Houston. What I did not like was his play-calling on 3rd down. If you know you are going to go for it on 4th down, run it with Bush on 3rd and 4. New Orleans has a very talented offensive core and with a bit of defense next year will be in the playoff hunt.

Arizona defeats Cincinnati: The Rudi Johnson era may be over in Cincinnati. Rudi Johnson has been one of the more consistent and reliable backs in the NFl for the past three seasons. He is a true between the tackles runner and his body looks a bit slower after three seasons of averaging over 340 carries per season. I do not think Kenny Watson is a #1 running back, but right now looks stronger at the point of impact and a lot quicker than Johnson. The Bengal season, so promising going into the season is dead. They make too many mistakes and have too many holes on defense to really be favored to win any games down the stretch. Arizona looked tough again this week, making plays on both sides of the ball when they needed to. Warner is playing well, the defense is making plays. One knock I have of their win is that the offensive line did a poor job of opening up running lanes against a soft Bengal front 7. The Zona running game has produced very little the past four contests after starting the season with some impressive games. Arizona has a real shot at the AFC West title. They will need continued defensive capacity and more importantly, a running game. As a side note, Antrel Rolle should be reprimanded for his taunting penalty after his game winning INT. He could have cost Arizona the game. Instead of kicking off from the 30, the Cards had to kick from the 15 and if not for a penalty on the return, Cinci would have had the ball at midfield with 20 seconds to go and a chance to tie.

Indianapolis defeats Kansas City: After the second half two minute warning, and Indianapolis facing a 4th a short form the KC 3, I looked at the guy next to me and said that Dungy will and should go for it. He answered back that there is now way he will or should go for it. During the commercial break I explained my side, which was the following. If you kick the field goal, K.C gets the ball back with about two minutes to go with one time out. One can not say what will happen on the kickoff, but a big return is possible. Croyle had been playing well, and with two big targets in Gonzalez and Bowe, had a good chance to get into FG range. If you go for it and get the first down, three kneel downs with a kick and the game is over. Worst case scenario is that you get stuffed and K.C needs to go about 70 yards for a FG attempt. Dungy showed a lot of faith in his line and in Manning to use his size to get a 1st down. I hope that Harrison and Ryan Diem get to 100% for the playoffs.

Jacksonville defeats San Diego: Norv Turner, you are dead to me. Is it really so hard to call on the best RB in football to run it 30 times a game when needed? LT should never be the second option in a football game. 16 rushes for the best RB in the game. 16!!! On the road, with Rivers looking like a college freshman, you gave the ball to LT 16 times. It pained me to watch this game. A consolation is that you may wise on up and change your ways before the season is over. The chargers should still win the West and maybe Norv will have smartened up by then and turn San Diego back into a run first team. I questioned Del Rio going with Gerrard after Grey had played well in his stead. Watching Gerrard this week changed my mind. He looks very smooth and effortless, in total control of the offense. Del Rio showed confidence in his team by going for it twice on 4th down on their second possession of the game. The Jaguar team identity is one of “we are tougher than you and will prove it”. On 4th and 1 from the SD 11 and then the SD 1, the Jags ran the ball getting a fist down and then a TD. Play calling like this instills confidence in a team and shows players that the coach believes in them. Come playoff time, the Jags will have confidence and experience in getting the 1st down when they are faced with a short yardage situation. Norv Turner showed no confidence in his team. 4th and 2 from the SD 39 in the 3rd Q. San Diego has an above average O-line, the best running back in the game and are in need of a confidence boost. Turner eschews all that and punts the ball. Jacksonville scored a TD on that possession. Jacksonville has a real shot at the division and certainly the wild card. The AFC South is strong enough to garner both wild card bids.

Vikings defeat Raiders: Steve Hutchinson gets the majority of press when it comes to the Viking O-line prowess. He deserves all the accolades bestowed on him. It will be an oversight if Matt Birk does not go to the Pro Bowl this year. He is mauling defensive tackles. With Brian McKinney also playing at a high level, the Viking line is doing a lot of damage, evident by the gaudy numbers Peterson and Taylor are putting up on a weekly basis. Tavarious Jackson looks very athletic but I am not sure if he is the answer at QB. I would like to see him play with a few decent wide receivers before casting final judgment. I said it before and I will say it again, Adrian Peterson should not play again this season. As for Oakland, where is Jamarcus Russel? Come on, lets see what this kid has. Scale down the play book and get him in there.

Eagles defeat Dolphins: There will be those in Philly that will call for Kolb or Feely to replace McNabb. These are the same fans that wanted McNabb out a long time ago and they should never speak about football again. McNabb is right behind Brady and Manning as best QB the last 8 years and no QB has done more with so little than has McNabb. The one year Philly management gave him a legit WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. McNabb is out of Philadelphia after this season and I hope he goes somewhere with some decent receivers. Westbrook won this game for the Eagles. Miami has not given up on this season and I will predict that they win a game. Rickey Williams was re-instated by the NFL. There have been many comments about Williams regarding his quitting of football and his use of marijuana. About smoking weed, raise your hand if you never smoked pot. I am not saying that NFL players should be allowed to smoke weed, it is still an illegal drug in this country. I am saying not to treat his pot use as if it is a crime on par with gun possession or shooting someone. In regards to him quitting football, I think he needed a break. Most of the people who criticize him probably never ran at full speed, let alone played football since the age of 8. Football is a grueling sport, with an enormous level of dedication in order to make it to the NFL. Williams made his money and then struggled with his true feelings on playing. I can not fault him for quitting, but I do fault him for not quitting before the NFL draft and leaving the Dolphins with a big hole at RB. I have a question for all those that look at Williams with disgust that he quit football. Do you like your job? If you answered no, and had millions in the bank, would you quit and do some things that interest you? Would you travel and see the world? I certainly would. Williams was getting beaten up every Sunday and needed to get away from it all. I wish him the best.

Denver beats Tennessee: Please get Vince Young some receivers for next season. How many dropped passes did the Titans have? 5, 6 maybe. The better team did not win this game. Why does John Lynch still play football? This man had neck surgery to remove bone spurs in 2004. Why risk limb mobility and play football, especially a hard hitting safety who loves to lead with his head? He had a neck stinger on Monday. Go spend some time with your family. I have a prediction. If someone looked up which player has hurt the most teammates in a career, I bet it would be John Lynch. There will be a pile up, play basically over and Lynch will come flying in to hit anything in sight and a lot of time it is his own teammate.

Dallas defeats Washington: Still not sold on the Dallas defense. Campbell played a wonderful game, his only mistake an interception at the Dallas 20 with about two minutes to go. I did not like the play calling here. Two minutes to go, at the Dallas 20 and all three time outs left. Gibbs decided to go pass happy. Why not run the ball with Portis on 1st down, help your young QB out. If it works on 1st down, run the ball again on 2nd down. There is plenty of time left so run your normal offense. On his interception, Campbell looked hesitant to use his legs once he got outside the pocket. It seemed to me that he had a good bit of space to run. He is going to be a very good QB for a while and Gibbs seems correct in moving up in the 2005 draft to pick him up. I wonder if the Cowboys will be able to move the ball once opposing teams figure out that they should guard Terrell Owens.

Cleveland defeats Baltimore: Fun game to watch. Cleveland let the Ravens back into this game. For all the good Cleveland has done this season, two bad things stand out to me. 1- They have a below average defense, 2- Very talented on offense, they are young and have yet to develop a killer instinct. Cleveland had Pittsburgh on the verge of defeat last week and eventually lost because they got nervous in the second half, making silly mistakes and costly turnovers. Same thing happened here against Baltimore, but the outcome was in their favor. It was news to me that field goals were not review able. Why not change that now? Get the competition committee on conference call and establish FGs as review able. It can’t be that hard and which owner would say no to this. Getting the call correct should be the bottom line.

NFL Week 11 Picks

2007-11-16T15:43:00.000-08:00

Last week 7 – 6 – 1
Season 68 – 68 – 8

Home team in CAPS. Spreads from the Thursday New York Post.
My pick for each game is the first team listed.

LIONS (+3) Giants
Steelers (-9.5) JETS
Chargers (+3) JAGUARS
COLTS (-14.5) Chiefs
Raiders (+5.5) VIKINGS
Browns (-2.5) RAVENS
Bucs (-3) FALCONS
Cardinals (+3) BENGALS
EAGLES (-10) Dolphins
Patriots (-16) BILLS
Washington (-10.5) COWBOYS
Bears (+6) SEAHAWKS
TEXANS (-1) Saints
PACKERS (-10) Panthers
Rams (-3) 49ERS
Titans (+2) BRONCOS

NFL Week 10 Game Notes

2007-11-14T06:17:00.000-08:00

Games I watched this weekend

Chargers defeat Colts: Did anyone see the look of dismay on L.T.s face during and after the game? The look of, “why am I not the focal point of this offense”. News to Norv “I look shook on the sidelines” Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson is the best running back in the game and needs the ball 30 times at a minimum. San Diego is a running offense and the ball needs to be in the hands of LT throughout the game. I know they have Gates and now Chambers, but these players are the dressing and LT is the salad. During Charger games this season I find myself asking, “why are they not running the ball?”. This is a question that should not be asked on a team with Tomlinson in his prime. San Diego was lucky to win this game, which is sad in lieu of 6 picks and two kick returns for touchdowns.

Packers defeat Vikings: If Adrian Peterson plays again this season I would like to see a boycott of the remaining Metrodome tilts. The best player on your team, a player that has everything to be a star for the next decade just suffered a ligament tear. You are 3-6, no realistic shot at the playoffs, do me a favor, please. DO NOT PLAY THIS YOUNG MAN AGAIN THIS SEASON!! It would be stupid and reckless. I understand that it is not a “serious” ligament injury, but why risk his and the organization’s future? Why was Favre in the game with 6 minutes to go in a 27-0 game? Good news for Green Bay is that Ryan Grant is a determined enough runner to give the Pack a legitimate running game. Somewhat bad news is that standout offensive tackle Mark Tauscher suffered an ankle injury. The Packer website reported that the injury does not seem serious.

Eagles defeat Redskins: I love that Andy Reid kissed McNabb on his head as Reid was giving him a headlock in the closing minutes of the game. Both of them, each excellent at what they do, have been scrutinized heavily through any slide in Eagle production during their tenure together. It seemed to me that Andy Reid really appreciated everything McNabb has accomplished as an Eagle with that kiss. Sort of like the visions of the dying seeing their life flash before their eyes, Reid saw all the wins and success McNabb has given him at that moment. The Eagles are a veteran team with a lot of pride and one heck of a back in Westbrook, who is the MVP of the Eagles this year. A playoff push is possible if the defense can make a few stops a game. The Eagle defense made the Redskin offense look much better than they actually are. Joe Gibbs made a mistake going for 2 when he was up 12- 7 in the 2nd Q.

Steelers defeat Browns: I was waiting for one of the star offensive players on the Browns to make a play in the second half and it never happened. Jamal Lewis was ineffective and Anderson looked nervous. The Brown offense came to a halt after the opening half with their possessions resulting in six punts, a fumble, a kickoff return for a TD and a missed FG attempt. The Brown defense also relented in the second half but that had more to do with the Steelers playing better on the offensive end. Rothlisberger played a tremendous game, made all the big plays he had to and won this game for the Steelers. There is no hesitation in Rothlisberger this year, vividly seen on his long TD run. Willie Parker is a very good runner and the Steeler defense is above average and getting better every week.

Bills defeat Dolphins: Good win on the road for Buffalo against a team desperate for a win. Marshawn Lynch continues to impress. His stat line was a pedestrian 19 rushes for 61 yards, but he had to fight for all those yards and got the ball into the end zone when the Bills needed a TD and the ensuing 2pt conversion. The holding call on Miami’s kickoff return nullifying Tedd Ginn Jr’s TD is a play typical of a losing team. Miami played better on both sides of the ball and should have won this game.

Rams defeat Saints: The Saint defense was once again horrendous. St. Louis moved the ball at will through the air and on the ground. The Saints have a good offense but a serious lack of talent in their defense will make it tough on them to get into the playoffs at 4-5. Steven Jackson looked healthy, Bulger looked healthy and the line played better than it has this season. Barring injuries, St. Louis will win a few more games before this season is complete and play spoiler in the NFC West.

Seahawks defeat San Fran: The first play from scrimmage was a very nice call. Fake handoff to Frank Gore, semi roll-out to the right by Alex Smith, then throw deep to Darrell Jackson on a fly route. Jackson was open by 5 yards but the ball was severely under thrown. The MNF announcers made no comment to the ball being under thrown. They spoke of the play call being good and that the defense was fooled, but neglected to mention that if the ball was thrown correctly, San Fran goes up 6-0. Frank Gore had a good game but looks as if he is limping going back to the huddle after every play. The 49ers need to evaluate his condition and make sure they are not jeopardizing any future Frank Gore production by playing him. I liked Nolan going for the TD on 4th and 1 from the Seattle 2. I did not like him going for the 1st down on 4th and 3 from Seattle’s 23 when he needed a FG at some point in the game, 17-0 at the time, and the San Fran defense had been playing better the last few sets.

NFL Week 10 Picks

2007-11-09T05:18:00.001-08:00

Last Week 10 – 4 – 0
Season 61 – 62 – 7

Spreads courtesy of the Thursday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Cowboys (-1.5) GIANTS: I am not sold on the Cowboy defense. The Giants come into this game with a confident O-line, a confident and bruising RB in Brandon Jacobs, and a maturing Eli Manning who will have mismatches at his disposal with Burress and Shockey. Manning has avoided bad interceptions the past few games and that trend needs to continue because the Cowboy offense is too good to give them extra possessions. The Giants are going to score on Dallas. If the Giant front 4 can be as effective this week as they have been since the second half of Week 3 against the Redskins, the Giants are going to win. I look for the Giants to play with emotion behind a big game from Jacobs and their front 4. Interesting match up will be how rookie CB Aaron Ross reacts if lined up against Owens.
Pick: Giants (+1.5)

TITANS (-4.5) Jaguars: Vince Young is playing way below his talent level. The Titans wins are from a great defense and coaching. Jeff Fischer is a top 5 NFL head coach and his “F.U.” attitude permeates the Titan roster. Albert Haynesworth is having a defensive MVP season and Kieth Bulluck is heading to the Pro Bowl again. They are at home against a Jaguars team that is not as good as their 5-3 record. Look for Vince Young to snap out of his cold spell. He steps up in the big games and at home against a division rival is a big game.
Pick: Titans (-4.5)

CHIEFS (-3) Broncos: After being out with a severe spine/neck injury, Priest Holmes makes his first start since October 2005. Holmes should be nowhere near a football field. Did the league clear him to play or is this a team doctor decision? Either way, the love of football or money is not worth the risk of being a wheelchair the rest of one’s life. Now, when he plays, I like his chances of regaining some of his form. He will never be the stud RB he was 4 years ago, but he has not taken a hit in 2 years so his body is fresh. 20 touches is a strong possibility. Denver is a mess on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs are playing with confidence, they are at home and playing for a playoff push. I am not a Herm Edwards fan at all, but he is doing a fine job with the Chiefs this season.
Pick: Chiefs (-3)

Bills (-3) DOLPHINS: Dick Jauron has the Bills playing well and are two last second FGs away from a 6-2 record. Jauron needs to stress that his team not look past the Dolphins this week with the Patriots looming next Sunday nigh because the Dolphins are still playing hard, searching for a win to keep them from going 0-fer-season. Marshawn Lynch is a talented runner playing behind a weekly improving O-line. J.P. Losman is re-connecting with the talented Lee Evans. Buffalo’s defense is playing very opportunistically and the Bills have had some big special team plays. This is a tough game for the Bills but I am staying with the hot hand.
Pick: Bills (-3)

PACKERS (-6) Vikings: The way Peterson is full speed one step after hitting the hole or making a cut is a beautiful thing to watch, and a big reason for his success. The Vikings will get a QB and receiver in the off season and be a real threat next season. The Packers are making me a believer and I do not see them losing at home to a team that is so one-dimensional. Green Bay is solid defensively and will keep Peterson from running over 120 yardsd, which should be enough to win. Gregg Jennings is becoming a Favre favorite as a long ball threat. He and Driver will both have a good game.
Pick: Packers (-6)

RAVENS (-4.5) Bengals: Have the Bengals given up? Maybe. I am not sure how much control Marvin Lewis has in the Bengal locker room and their defense is really bad. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot with a 4-4 record. A reservation I have against the Ravens this week is that both starting CBs, McCallister and Rolle, may not play, giving the Bengals an advantage in the throwing game. I have a suggestion for Billick, the “offensive genius”, run the ball 45 times against the Bengals and you will win. This guy is getting way too cute in his play-calling. Going 5-wide in the rain last weekend early in the game was a mistake. I am going with the Ravens here. I’ll take the home team that is playing for the play-offs and to avenge an embarrassing loss last week in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Ravens (-4.5)

Bears (-3) RAIDERS: Jamarcus Russell needs to start and get his feet wet. The Raiders will not make the playoffs and must use these last 8 games as on the job training for Russell. This game is a good opportunity for the Bears to get their defense in somewhat of an order. Bottom line for me is this. The Bears are the more talented team and need to win this game on the road to have a chance at the playoffs.
Pick: Bears (-3)

CARDINALS (-1) Lions: Strange things happen in the desert. The Cards are much better at home and will have starting RT Levi Brown back in the lineup. Detroit is playing well on offense and taking the ball away on defense. Tough game to call but I’ll take the desert team at home with something to prove on the offensive end against a dome team whose defense is playing above their heads.
Pick: Cardinals (-1)

SEAHAWKS (-10) 49ers: I do not trust Seattle giving 10 points to William Cullen Bryant H.S., never mind an NFL team. The Niners have to start scoring at some point, don’t they?
Pick: 49ers (+10)

Colts (-3.5) CHARGERS: The Chargers must come out Sunday night and show that they can win a big game. I see LaDainian Tomlinson being very assertive in practice this week, making sure the offense is prepared and letting the entire team know they are better than their 4-4 record. L.T. will get the ball 30+ times in this game. The Chargers are at home, need a win, need to play well on the national stage and are playing a Colt team that is ripe for an emotional let down after blowing a ten point lead last weekend with a bit over 9 minutes left. An injury to DE Louis Castillo is a big loss for the Chargers. A very talented and athletic player, he is out for about 6 weeks with an ankle injury. I read somewhere that Adrian Peterson had 49 yards at halftime last week, before Castillo was injured.
Pick: Chargers (+3.5)

STEELERS (-9.5) Browns: Pittsburgh is playing well on both sides of the ball. Rothlisberger is playing without the hesitation he showed last season while recovering from severe facial injury due to his motorcycle accident. He should not have been out on the field last season, especially the first 8 games or so, but this is the NFL, and they don’t care about if you are playing with a semi-broken face. Santonio Holmes, a talented and wiry WR, is starting to play up to his potential this season. The Browns defense is still not producing consistent stops but they may have received a momentum push in last week’s win over Seattle. Their stopping of Seattle on 4th and 1 in OT at midfields could be the play that will give their defensive unit a confidence boost heading into this game. Nine points seems a bit much considering the Browns are playing at such a high level offensively. The Browns win this game outright is Lewis gets 22+ carries.
Pick: Browns (+9.5)

PANTHERS (-4) Falcons: Neither team inspires much confidence but I am taking Atlanta for a few reasons. DeAngelo Hall is going to make amends for the first game these two teams played this season when he handed the Panthers the game with dumb penalties, the QB situation in Carolina is a mess, Atlanta has played better defense then their record would indicate and I do not think the team has quit on Bobby Patrino.
Pick: Falcons (+4)

REDSKINS (-3) Eagles:There are too many talented, veteran players on the Eagles to have this season turn into a total wash. Look for Jimmy Johnson to up the pressure on Campbell and stack the box to nullify Portis. McNabb’s job is tied to this game. If the Eagles lose, Kolb will be called on so Eagle management can see who they drafted.
Pick: Eagles (+3)

SAINTS (-11.5) Rams: I keep telling myself to pick the Rams, but then I look at their defense and think “no way”. The bye week helped the offense get healthy, but the defense is still a very weak unit. 12 points to cover is a lot, but N.O. is playing at a high level offensively a 31- 17 type of game is a possibility.
Pick: N.O. (-11.5)

NFL Week 9 Picks

2007-11-02T17:50:00.000-07:00

Last Week 4 – 9 – 0
Season 51 – 58 – 7

Home team in CAPS. Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post.

Redskins (-3.5) JETS: Kellen Clemens threw a pass last week, moving forward in the pocket, but had to use only his arm to get a good throw off because I remember a defender at his legs. The throw actually drew ohhhhhs from the crowd and a raise in octave from the announcer doing the play by play because of how strong the throw was. Clemens started the Baltimore game, and I only saw the last 8 or so minutes (included in those minutes were 3 dropped passes, 1 a definite tie the game TD), so I do not know any more about him than someone who watched the pre-season Jet games. Is he poised? Does he manage a game well? Is pressure kryptonite? We will find out. I do know that the fly route and 20 yard out will be part of the playbook once again. The benefit of arm strength is that the game-planning/play calling for the Jets need not be play-action based. Time and time again this season, in crucial situations, Mangini has shown no confidence in Jones and the O-line. As far as I am concerned, 3rd and under 3 yards, anywhere on the field, is 4 down territory this week for the Jets. All this being said, I like the Redskins to come out with emotion after last week, and a running game that will wear down the Jets.
Pick: Redskins (-3.5)

CHIEFS (-2.5) Packers: The Chiefs are 4-3 and the wins have come from a QB challenged Minnesota, turnover plagued San Diego, an underachieving Cincinnati and a bad Oakland team. The common denominator in all their wins is a solid defense. DE Jared Allen is a monster, will be in the All- Pro game every year type of player. The LB corp is very talented with Napoleon Harris, Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards. However, Green Bay has grown on me with solid play on both sides of the ball. If RB Ryan Grant can continue on his solid performance from last week, Green Bay has an excellent shot at this game, but also a deep playoff run. Favre is playing really well and the defense should be able to keep L.J. in check. As a note, the line has moved from KC -1 to KC -2.5.
Pick: Packers (+2.5)

BUCCANEERS (-3.5) Cardinals: Warner is still a good QB. Not as good as he was in the early part of this century, but still a better QB than 75% of the league starters. He is still accurate and quick with his reads. Arizona’s O-line is beat up, but under Russ Grimm’s tutelage, has become better every week. They are opening holes for Edge and throwing lanes for Warner. Coming out of the bye week, I like Arizona in the hot weather against a team that let Quinn Grey beat them last week.
Pick: Cardinals (+3.5)

TITANS (-4) Panthers: Titans come out to play every game. Titans still need to get a top notch receiver. In the mean time, I would like to see Justin Gage see more passes thrown his way. His size is impressive and I have seen him make a few tough catches this year. The Titans have a defense that should bottle up the Panther running game and I see Tennessee winning by 10. Carolina is a mediocre team right now.
Pick: Titans (-4)

FALCONS (-3.5) 49ers: Petrino really needs to give the ball to Norewood more than he gives the ball to Dunn. Warrick Dunn has had a great career, was a very versatile back, but has lost that quickness and burst that made him so effective for so many years. Norewood has quickness, speed, excellent receiving skills, big play potential and age on his side. With the Falcon record where it is, why not turn the starting job over to Norewood? The Niners are a disappointment this season. Frank Gore is gimpy and overall, the offense is playing poorly. Alex Smith is the starter once again, and if the O-line can give him some time, should be able to move the ball with throws to a talented receiving corp in Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis is a mismatch for most LB’s in the league and should get open this week. The Niner defense, young and athletic, has not played very well against the good offenses they have faced this season. The injury to OLB Manny Lawson was a big blow in week 2. I will put an if bet on this game.
Pick:
If Gore plays – Niners (+3.5)
If Gore does not play – Falcons (-3.5)

SAINTS (-3) Jaguars: Even with Quinn Grey at helm for the Jags, this is a tough game to call. The Jaguars are a hard-nosed team seems to be in every game. N.O. has a potent offense with talent at QB, RB and WR, but a defense that the Jaguars can run on. Both coaches are good in my book. The deciding factors for me are these. Saints are at home, Reggie Bush is showing his capability as an every down back, Jaguar DT Marcus Straud may not play and Quinn Grey is not an attractive option for winning the game. The Saints will game plan to stop the Jag running game and win by 7 or more.
Pick: Saints (-3)

LIONS (-3) Broncos: RB Kevin Jones has been a favorite of mine since watching him play at VaTech. He brings a lot to the Lions and Mike Martz will feature him in his game planning. Kitna has not thrown a TD in a few games but expect that to change this week. Denver does not seem to be doing much of anything with a level of excellence. Detroit’s defense has been very good at taking the ball away this season. I like Detroit at home behind a 100+ yard effort from Jones and a few Kitna TD passes.
Pick: Detroit (-3)

Bengals (-1) BILLS: The Bills are two last second FGs away from being a 5-2 team. Juron has Buffalo playing very hard and with an emphasis on running the ball. Lynch will be the focal point again for the Bills’ offense and should see some holes behind a good O-line pushing against a soft Bengal D-line. The benching of Losman could prove a benefit. Sometimes one needs to go into the pits (in this case the pits is the bench) to find rejuvenation. Cincinnati has had trouble scoring in the red zone this season, leading to FGs rather than TDs, resulting in losses rather than victories. I had the Bengals winning the division this season. Not going to happen. Buffalo has momentum, is home and are playing a beaten down team that may be quitting soon.
Pick: Bills (+1)

Chargers (-7) VIKINGS: This was part of a post I wrote in regard to the Chris Chambers trade a few weeks back. “The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited.” The Chargers were my pick to win the AFC this year and I am sticking to it. Their defense is starting to play at the level they did last season and once LT gets going, their offense will be deadly. Jason Whitlock, an excellent writer for The Kansas City Star, has campaigned for Jeff George to be the Viking QB, giving the Vikings a deep threat so the box won’t be stacked against the impressive Adrian Peterson. Interesting idea, but one that will not manifest itself this week. This is a game San Diego will win big.
Pick: Chargers (-7)

BROWNS (-1.5) Seahawks: Not a fan at all of Seattle right now. Their offense is soft may be missing Deion Branch again this week. Let’s see if Alexander starts running with authority. Seattle has a decent defense led by LBs Tatupu and Peterson, but the Browns are home and playing with tremendous confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Then they have to play defense. I am not so sure they are getting better as the year wears on so this may be an opportunity for the Seahawks to score a few points. I like the Browns in this game because of their offense and because I think Seattle is not very good team at this point in the season.
Pick: Browns (-1.5)

Patriots ( -5) COLTS: The Colts have played the tougher schedule and are home. Payton Manning is no longer a deer in headlights in the big games, has won the Super Bowl and the last three head to head games against New England. His rapport with Wayne and Clark has grown from last season and Gonzalez is a WR who played in many big games during his time at Ohio State. We all know of the offensive output from the Patriots. A key for this game is to not let Brady have his customary 7 Mississippi count to throw. Interesting match-up will be LT Matt Light against Dwight Freeney. Look for Bob Sanders to throw a whollop on Moss and/or Welker early and often to try and set some type of tone and I would not be surprised if the Colts blitzed a bit more than they usually do. I like the Colts to win outright.
Pick: Colts ( +5)

RAIDERS (-3) Texans: I read a report the Andre Johnson may play 10-15 snaps this game. What’s the point? If he is not ready to go full throttle, he should not be in the game. If there are any questions as to whether or not his knee is ready, he should sit out this week and get ready for week 11 after the Texan bye next week. The Raiders don’t impress me and it seems that Jordan has been losing some carries to Justin Farges. If the Texans have any thoughts of a playoff push after the bye week, a win here is a must. I see them playing with urgency and I see their above average defense making some plays.
Pick: Texans (+3)

Cowboys (-3) EAGLES: The Cowboy offense is fun to watch, and I especially like when Barber is running with the ball. He needs to see the majority of snaps. The Cowboys are overrated because their defense is not that good right now. I see the Eagles playing well behind a getting healthier McNabb and Eagle MVP Brian Westbrook. Curtis and Brown need to make catches like they did last week for the rest of the year. The Eagle offense will get a boost from the return of L.J. Smith who is a red zone favorite for McNabb. The Linc will be a zoo for this one, tailgating starts at 10AM.
Pick: Eagles (+3)

STEELERS (-9) Ravens: Is this really the line? I know the line makers know a lot more than most of us but who would have put the line this high? I was thinking 4.5 or so. Well, who am I to go against the people in Vegas.
Pick: Steelers (-9)

NFL Week 8 game notes

2007-10-31T05:58:00.000-07:00

A five day drink fest culminated with me arriving home Sunday morning around 6 A.M. I did not go to any of my local, NFL friendly pubs on Sunday so I watched only the locally broad casted games. Here are some of my thoughts from those games.

Giants defeat Dolphins: If this game was played on a better field, the Giants would have won by a large margin. Their offensive line tore apart the Miami front 7 and Jacobs was running very hard. The Giants list Jacobs at 260 pounds. I am not sure if he is that heavy, but his muscle mass and height are impressive. He continues to run with anger and although not on display often in this game, is becoming a better blocker as the year progresses. Eli Manning did little to win the game, but maybe more importantly, did not lose the game when called upon to pass in the muck. The Dolphins still have some aging players that other teams may want via trades. Taylor and Thomas may be worth draft picks this off season and the Dolphins would be wise to listen to offers.

 Watching the game, I would have guessed that half the fans at Wembley Stadium for this game were Americans living in Europe who jumped at the opportunity to see an NFL game. The rest being 30% Europeans who followed the NFL Europe league and now had the opportunity to watch an NFL game in person. The last 20% simply people who wanted to have a few beers and watch some organized violence. I am not sure of these numbers, just guessing.
 The NFL has a great product. Passion, athleticism and teamwork are just three qualities that link NFL football and soccer. The one attribute that the NFL has that soccer does not, and is appealing to European countries, especially those that play rugby, is the violence that happens with every single play in the NFL. I am positive that a casual fan at the game last Sunday, a fan who never watched an NFL game before, saw the extreme level of contact and became hooked.
 The NFL will never take over as the premier sport in Europe. Soccer is too popular and beautiful of a sport to lose its perch as #1. The NFL has to reach the fans by finding a way to get some NFL games on local television stations, especially during the playoffs. Have tutorials on rules and strategy before, during and after the games. The NFL Europe league was the equivalent of Triple AAA baseball so the more real NFL games Europeans get to watch, the better.

Bills defeat Jets: In what has become a common theme with Mangini, he had no confidence in his offensive line or running game when it mattered most. The Jets had the ball at the Buffalo 40 with 6 minutes to go. 3rd and 3 and I am thinking, ”this is certainly 4 down territory, give it to Jones twice and see what happens”. Wrong, incomplete pass and the Jets punted. Jones is running real hard all day behind an offensive line that had been pushing the Bill front 7 off the line and yet Mangini decided to throw and then punt. You are 1-6, at home, down by 3 late in the game and he decided to play it safe. After showing zero confidence in his line and running game repeatedly through the year, I wonder if it has creeped into his lineman’s heads, “we really do stink”. Even after the punt landed on the 3, did anyone really think that the Jets were going to stop Lynch before he got a couple of first downs? I didn’t. Congrats so far to Buffalo. They are playing hard week in and week out and seem to have a good core of young players to build on.

Packers defeat Broncos: The supposedly best CB tandem in the league got beat for the two long TD passes. First it was Champ Baily in the 1st Q and then Dre Bly in OT. I am still not sold on the Packers but I will say this. My mind is changing as I see them get a running game going. At the start of the season, I though Favre was through being an elite QB. I was wrong. Then I thought that without a running game, the Packers could not win. Wrong again. But, when the playoffs arrive, the Packers will need a decent running game to win and they may have found something in Ryan Grant. It was one game against a shaky run defense ,so let’s see how he does the next few games. If they get a ground game going, I will start to believe in this Packer team.

NFL Week 8 Picks

2007-10-28T10:01:00.000-07:00

Last Week 6- 8- 0
Season 47- 49- 7

I have been on a 5 day bender so I have not thought of these games too intently.

Giants(-9.5), Bills (+3), Rams (+3), Bears (-5),Colts (-6.5), Titans (-7.5),
Eagles (-1), Bengals (+4), Texans (+10), Buccaneers (-4), Saints (-3),
Redskins (+17), Broncos (-3)

Glenn Dorsey Chop Blocked

2007-10-26T20:57:00.000-07:00

Last Saturday, Auburn’s freshman RG Chaz Ramsey took a vicious shot at LSU standout DT Glenn Dorsey’s knee. Did an Auburn coach tell his young, impressionable lineman, who wants to be a starter on Auburn for all 4 years to take Dorsey out, help Auburn get a big win? Or is Chaz Ramsey a very mean person who has and will do this again? Combination of both? I am happy for Dorsey that the injury is a sprain and he is scheduled to play next Saturday.

NFL Week 7 Game Notes

2007-10-24T21:20:00.000-07:00

Games that I watched this weekend:

Bengals beat Jets: Eight second half rushes by Thomas Jones is not enough when
you are up 10 at half. The offensive line did a poor job at opening up holes
for Jones to run through, a travesty considering that the Bengals had been
giving up a ton of yards on the ground through their first five games.Overall, the Jet offensive line is not playing well this year. I thought it was a team strength , but has yet to live up to expectations. Pennington needs to take a seat. It may seem like a panic move by some, but at 1-6, what are your options? Is he going to be your QB next season? If the answer is yes, then keep him in there, but if the answer is no, bring in Clemens and see what he has. The Jet defense stinks. No pass rush, can't stop the run, and opposition receivers are constantly open. I was very wrong about the Jets this season, having them winning the division. Congrats to the Bengals on winning this game. A big test against the Steelers this weekend. If they want recognition as a playoff contender, a home win against a division opponent is a must.

Giants defeat San Fran: The Giants are playing the best football in the NFC right now and took care of an inferior San Fran team. The offensive line is playing at an elite level, Jacobs and company are running angry and the receiving trio of Burress, Shockey and Toomer are making plays. Manning seemed to have avoided his mandatory one bone headed interception per game in this one. The interception deep inside SF territory was the result of a tipped pass at the line. The effectiveness of the Giant defense is dependent on the front 4. Whenthey are causing havoc, the Giant defense is solid because the weaknesses at LB and secondary are being masked. Outside of Antonio Pierce, the Giants lack a consistent playmaker behind the defensive line. However, if the line plays at the level they are playing at now, the Giants have a real shot at the East andat making a deep playoff push.

Buffalo defeats Baltimore: Ok, so there are 60 seconds left in the 2nd Q. The
Ravens are down 9-0 and have the ball, 4th and 10 from the Bill 39 yard line. I am watching the game thinking "The punt unit is coming out, why is the punt unit coming out?" You are at home, have a defense you believe in and there are 60 seconds left in the half. Why is this guy punting? I thought that was a bad call on Billick’s part, especially with Baltimore getting the kick to start the 2nd half. The second half starts with a Baltimore TD drive featuring McGahee running for 72 yards on 4 carries. What does the "offensive genius" Billick do on the next Baltimore possession, down 12 -7? Pass, pass, pass, punt. The next Baltimore possession when they were down 19-7, with 18 minutes left to play? The get to the Buffalo 8 yard line, 3rd and 3. McGahee is running hard and the offensive line is playing well, run the ball was what I thought. Wrong. The "offensive genius" calls two pass plays resulting in two incompletions. If you know you are going for it on 4th down, run it on 3rd and 4th down. Buffalo is a tough team and Marshawn Lynch is a gifted running back. He is going to be a good player in this league for a while. My AFC final 4 included the Ravens and not the Patriots. I would like to amend that prediction please.

Cowboys defeat Vikings: I am still not convinced that Dallas is an elite team but they continue to win, so what do I know. Their defense is a weakness and will prevent them from reaching the Super Bowl if they do not tighten up that unit. Marion Barber runs like he is possessed and needs to be the featured back. He is tough, blocks extremely well, comes out of the backfield as a receiver better than Jones and has a mean streak that is needed to win in this league. Romo played at an All Pro type level in this game. If the Vikings had a QB, they would fight for a playoff spot.

Patriots defeat Dolphins: It was interesting the way every onlooker at the bar, regardless of fan affiliation, watched every Patriot possession in the first half. As Brady had his customary seven Mississippi count in the pocket, a collective, anticipatory hush fell across the bar on both his long attempts to Moss, and laughter of dismay and pleasure when Moss came down with the TDs. All football fans know that the Patriot offense can break records and most of these fans are happy to be witness to it. Good luck to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill on their upcoming ACL reconstructions and rehabilitations. Good luck to the Dolphins on possibly winning a game this year.

Bears defeat Eagles: When a team get to the red zone, the field shrinks. WRs need to work harder to get open. This is not happening in Philly and their red zone TD rate is abysmal because of it. Ronnie Brown and Kevin Curtis are not the answer at WR and the Eagle offense is paying for it. It is no coincidence that the one year McNabb had an elite WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl and McNabb was an MVP candidate. It is a shame that the Eagles refuse to go out and get McNabb support outside of Westbrook and I root for him to get out of Philly when this year is complete and go somewhere that will support his tremendous talent better. Chicago is a better team with Griese at helm and they are also a better team when Adrian Peterson gets more touches than Cedric Benson. I see little in Benson at this point. No toughness and no desire to get the extra yard. Peterson will start to get more touches as the season progresses,

New Orleans defeats Atlanta: If you go to nfl.com, you can see a 4 minute or so highlight clip from every game. If you look at the clip of this game, take note of the angle the Atlanta LB takes on Bush’s 4th Q TD run after catch. It’s 3rd and goal form the 4. Short pass to the left and Bush gets tangled with the right CB and is being held up. The LB in question, running from the middle of the field towards the tangle on the right sideline between Bush and the right CB, does a very amateur thing. Instead of knocking them all out of bounds, he tries to push the pile back towards the line of scrimmage. Bush frees himself and scores. Atlanta is playing above their talent level and could have three wins at this point. They played better than Jacksonville in week two and outplayed N.O. in this game. Jerious Norewood deserves more touches and Roddy White is a future All Pro.

Colts beat Jaguars: A clinic by the Colt offense. They took what the Jaguar defense gave them and wore out Jacksonville by the end of the game. In all the years I have watched Manning and company, I feel that this is their most cohesive offensive unit. The offensive line is elite, Wayne is now a seasoned veteran making the difficult catches, Marvin is still his All Pro self, Addai and Keith are both tough, explosive runners and Clark has emerged as an elite TE. I will be rooting for them in two weeks against the Pats. Why was Jones- Drew running the ball with 3 minutes to go in the game down by 3 TDs. I hope his knee injury is non-lingering.

Seattle defeats St. Louis: Seattle will probably win the NFC West, but they lack a toughness needed to make a deep push in the playoffs. Alexander is running like he is avoiding contact and the offensive line is nothing to brag about. The defense is the Seahawk strength right now.

Chiefs defeat Raiders: With the pints of Sam Adams and Patron shots flowing, I really did not watch this game too intently, but I will say this. What the hell is Priest Holmes doing back on the football field? He suffered a neck/spine injury categorized as severe two years ago and now is going helmet to helmet again with very angry, very large defensive players that do not care of prior spinal/ neck injury. Does he need the money, because if so, I’ll start a collection. He should not be on the field.

NFL Week 7 Picks

2007-10-20T12:19:00.000-07:00

Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last week 5- 6- 2
Season 41- 41- 7

Games I would wager on if in Vegas.

Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS: Seems like too many points given by a team that plays no defense.

Steelers (-3.5) over BRONCOS: Steelers kicked the snot out of Seattle before the bye week and now get most of their injured players back. The Broncos do not look good on either side of the ball and will be without Javon Walker.

Rams (+8.5) over SEAHAWKS: The Rams will probably have Bulger back at QB and are also getting healthy on the O-line. Seattle has shown very little the past few weeks in terms of talent or heart. I don’t feel confident picking Seattle to win this game outright at this point, never mind the large line.

Games I think I know what I am talking about.

Patriots (-16.5) over DOLPHINS: Only scary part of this spread is that Brady has never really excelled in Miami. However, this is a Patriot team looking to destroy all teams on their schedule and Miami has Cleo Lemon at QB who looked razzed at times against a poor Brown defense last week.

EAGLES (-5.5) over Bears: I had predicted these two teams to meet in the NFC championship game. Whoever loses this game will probably not make the playoffs. The Eagles are a bit more balanced on both sides of the ball right now and are at home.

Chiefs (+2.5) over RAIDERS: I hate the fact that I am picking the Chiefs. I am not sold on Cullpepper at all right now, the Chiefs are running the ball well and playing solid defense.

Colts (-3) JAGUARS: I can smell a 24-10 Colt halftime lead. The Colts are rested, have their offensive stars healed after the bye week and are the better team. I do not think the 4-1 Jaguar record is an indication of their abilities. They lost to the only solid team they played , Titans, and were fortunate in victories against the Falcons and Chiefs. Besides, the Colts and Pats are destined to play their game later in the season both undefeated.

Games that I would stay away from:

Falcons (+9) over SAINTS: I think the Saints will win, but they are poor against the run and Leftwich is a smart QB that will make the Falcons a better team

Ravens (-3) over BILLS: Throw all analysis out the window when the Bills are at home.

TEXANS (+1.5) over Titans: The Texan defense should be able to control the game, especially if Collins is QB for the Titans.

Vikings (+9.5) over COWBOYS: I like to look at the games for the week and before looking at the line, trying to guess the line. My guess for this game was Vikings
+5.5. The Cowboys are a bit overrated, especially when you take their defense into account.

Buccaneers (+2) over LIONS: The Lions are so erratic right that I would stay away from their games. The Bucs are winning with defense and Garcia is playing at a very high level. The addition of Bennett will help their running game.

The If games- These are 2 games that have injury issues that are important, will be game time decisions, and swing my picks from the favorite to the underdog depending on if they are playing or not.

If QB Smith plays for the 49ers 49ers (+9) over GIANTS
If QB Smith does not play GIANTS (-9) over 49ers

If QB Warner plays for the Cardinals Cards (+8.5) over REDSKINS
If QB Warner does not play REDSKINS (-8.5) over Cards

Ray Rice

2007-10-20T07:15:00.000-07:00

Here is a prediction from me to you I hope to be wrong about. Ray Rice will not go as high as he should in the NFL draft (he is a junior this season) because his pre-draft combine results will not be stellar. He will not post a great 40 time, or jump high in the vertical test or do extremely well in whatever athletic tests they have at these events. I have watched Ray Rice run a lot the past two seasons. He runs angry, always keeping his legs moving. His blocking is above average and has improved his ability to come out of the backfield as a receiver. Most importantly, he plays at a higher level in the big games, wanting the ball. All of Ray Rice’s big games and big moments, his instincts as a running back and leadership qualities will be marginalized because of his 40 time or number of bench presses. He will not be the first player to fall in the draft because of the “combine” results and unfortunately, will not be the last.

NFL Week 6 Game Notes

2007-10-16T15:32:00.000-07:00

Here are my thoughts on games I watched this weekend.

Eagles defeat Jets: The Jets had the ball, 3rd and 1 at the Eagle 3or 4 yard line, late in the 4th Q, needing a TD. Once again Mangini showed ZERO confidence in his running back and offensive line. Jones is having a monster day, running behind an offensive line playing very well, especially on the right side. Give it Jones until you get in the end-zone He went with a QB sneak that netted 4 inches. The Eagles knew that play was coming, the Jets already ran the sneak twice. Next play, spread set and an incompletion. Awful. I root for the Eagles and even I was pissed that Mangini/Schottenheimer called those plays. Pennington needs a seat so we can see what Clemens has. An outstanding finish is needed by the Jets to make the playoffs and the way Pennington is playing, all the INTs, it is not going to happen with Chad at helm. Also, Coles and Cotchery need someone that can get them the ball downfield without needing to rely on play-action. They are both playmakers that are being hindered by Pennington. The Eagles looked good yesterday, especially Westbrook. He is an extremely tough runner who is the MVP of the Eagle offense this year. McNabb will get better and have more confidence in his knee as the year progresses. The Eagles are a team that can get far into the playoffs. The NFC is wide open and they have playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Patriots defeat Cowboys: If you are reading this, I am sure you watched the game, so I won’t go into how great the Pats are. I will say that the Cowboys have yet to show any defensive ability against a good offense. The Giants moved the ball at will opening night and the Pats did whatever they wanted on Sunday. The other Cowboy opponents this season have been the offensively challenged Bears, Dolphins, Rams and Bills. Their offense is very good, but are going to need to step up defensively if they want to get the Super Bowl. I have a beef with Wade Phillips going for a FG at the 10 minute mark of the 4th Q when they were down 38-24. You are at the Pats 6 yard line, down by two TDs. Best case scenario is you get a TD and are now down by 7. One defensive stop and you can tie the game. Worst case scenario is that you do not get the TD, the Pats have the ball at the 6, and you are down two possessions. What does a FG here do? Assume you get the FG. Now you are down 11, still needing two more possessions. You need to stop the Pats, score a TD, then convert the 2 point conversion, kick off and stop Brady again, move the ball into FG range (assuming you get the 2pt conversion) and kick a FG. Brady already has 5 TDs in the game, moving the ball at will, and you think you are going to stop him not once, but twice. Give me a break. Phillips showed no balls and kicked the FG so he would not be second guessed. It was a bad call to go for the FG when they were down by 14 and if someone thinks differently, please explain why.

Bucs defeat Titans: These are two well coached teams that play very hard every week. Jeff Garcia was pressured many times this game, but always seemed to get away from trouble and make a play downfield. The Bucs are a team that will be vying for a playoff spot at the end of the year. A concern has to be the running game. Graham is in the NFL for a reason, but I do not see him as a featured back. Garcia has experience quarterbacking two pass first offenses with San Fran and Philly, so if the offensive philosophy becomes one dimensional, he has the experience and talent to do so. Let’s hope that Vince Young gets back on the field quick because the Titans will go no where with Kerry Collins at helm. One play sticks out in my head. While being sacked in the red-zone, he turned in the opposite direction from where they were driving and threw the ball down on the field. It was amazing, my description will not do the play justice and if I find a clip of it, I will put it on the site.

Baltimore beats St.Loius: Twice I turned to the TV carrying the game and thought, “the Rams are punting”, but it was actually ducks thrown up by Ferrotte that only looked like punts. The Ravens defense has played well the past two weeks, but it has been against the 49ers and Rams, two bad offenses. The Ravens defense gets to be bullies again this week against Buffalo, a game that they should win.

Chiefs beat Bengals: This game was on a corner TV because no body cared for it, so I really did not watch much of it. The Bengals are the leagues premier underachievers this year because they are healthy and losing.

Minnesota defeats Chicago: Really fun game to watch and how much can you say about Adrian Peterson, “Purple Jesus” according to a buddy of mine. On his 73 yard run, the way he waited for blocking after he got into the secondary, and then cut back against the defense, and then out-sprinted everyone was absolute beauty. That play exemplifies his talents, instincts and God-given ability. It is going to be fun watching him run for the next decade or so. Peterson even ran a kickoff back into Bear territory to help set up the winning FG. You put a QB on the Vikings and they have as good a shot as any to make a playoff push in the NFC. I liked the Bears to make it to the NFC championship game. The defense is going to have to play a lot better for them to even make the playoffs. Big game against Philly next week. A loss by either team and their playoff chances are in peril.
Cleveland defeats Miami: If Cleveland had a defense they could win the division. I was a big fan of Winslow coming into the year and he continues to be a mismatch against any team. Braylon Edwards has really stepped up. He always had talent, but I got the feeling about him that he never really cared about succeeding, making tough catches. That has certainly changed this year. I have seen him make more than a handful of really tough, over the middle grabs, while getting hit type of catches this season. It seems his swagger is more of a confidence in his ability than a “ I am going to show you up” attitude. Miami has traded Chambers to San Diego. I called for Miami to do this a few weeks back. Now if they can get a few more picks for Taylor and possibly Brown, they can really start to rebuild.

Green Bay defeats Washington: Jason Campbell has a good chemistry with his TE Cooley. If Moss and Randal-El can get in synch with Campbell the same way, this offense can be really strong. The Packers still don’t impress me, but they continue to win so what the heck do I know.

Jacksonville defeats Houston: Houston desperately needs Andre Johnson back. He makes the entire offense better. The turning point of this game came in the 1st Q. Houston was up 3-0 and on a crossing pass deep in Jax territory, Andre Davis caught the ball and looked to be going into the end zone. Instead of tucking the ball and driving for the score, he tried to get cute and extend the ball over the goal line. This was not necessary and he got stripped of the ball, the ball went through the end zone for Jax ball at the 20. I know it’s early but the play changed the game. Houston would have had momentum and a 10-0 lead. Real ballsy call by Jack Del Rio to onside kick after scoring a TD to go up 7-6 late in the 2nd Q. Jax converted a FG on the drive to make it 10-6 at half. The second half opened up with a 14 play 7 minute Jax drive. It was not good for Houston from that point on as Jax rolled the rest of the way.

Carolina defeats Arizona: VINNY!!!VINNY!!!VINNY!!! I had Zona in this one, but once Rattey had to come in for Zona, I knew it would be tough for them to win and wanted to see Vinny do well. Aside from the long ball to Smith late in the game, most of Vinny’s passes were short and conservative. I hope he does well for Carolina.

Chargers defeat Raiders: The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited. Chambers also gets 2 weeks to learn the playbook before SD plays again after this week’s bye.

Giants defeat Atlanta: Did not watch the game

New Orleans defeats Seattle: Seattle looked soft on both sides of the ball and played this game with little emotion. They have the personnel to be better than a .500 team but seem to crumble at any real competition. Holmgren needs to start yelling at people and should start with Shaun Alexander and the offensive line. Reggie Bush looked like he was running hard between the tackles. He is an amazing athlete and by running tough between the tackles, he will break more and more long runs as the season progresses. A nine win season can get the Saints into the playoffs so they need to go 8 and 2 the rest of the way. Not impossible for a team with this much talent on offense. Will the defense play well enough to give New Orleans a shot at winning is a major question that will answer itself in the weeks ahead.

The Mighty Cro-Zillian

2007-10-13T17:27:00.000-07:00

Another game, another goal. Bringing the Beautiful People 1 step closer to Euro 2008 with the game winner against Israel.

NFL Week 6 Picks

2007-10-13T17:26:00.000-07:00

Spreads curtsey of the Friday New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last Week 3 – 11 – 0
Season 36 – 35 - 5

The games I would wager on if I were in Vegas:

Eagles (-3) over JETS

Texans (+6.5) over JAGUARS

Patriots (-5.5) over DALLAS

Saints (+7) over SEAHAWKS

Games I think I know what I am talking about.

BROWNS (-4.5) over Dolphins

Rams (+10) over RAVENS

Titans (+3) over BUCS

Redskins (+3) over PACKERS

Bengals (-3) over CHIEFS

Games that I would not bet, stay away from at all costs but for the sake of statistics here are the picks.

CHARGERS (-10) over Raiders

BEARS ( -5.5) over Vikings

CARDINALS (-4) over Panthers

ATLANTA (+3.5) over Giants

View from The meadowlds- Notes from the Jet-Giant game.

2007-10-09T19:40:00.000-07:00

Went to the Jet/ Giant game this weekend. This is what I saw.

• Chad Pennington’s arm is embarrassingly weak. On TV you really do not get a sense of how strong a guy’s arm is. All the talk of Pennington’s arm being weak is something I always dismissed as exaggerated, however, watching him throw in person has changed my perception. The Giants were jumping routes, yes, but with a bit more zip on the ball, the defender would have not had an opportunity to intercept the pass. Pennington’s first INT took a long time to get to the target and the receiver was only about 12 yards away. The second INT was under thrown by about 5 yards. The third INT, well to be honest, I was not watching. The NFL is not a league that you can rely strictly on accuracy and timing. Pennington is a good leader, makes intelligent reads most of the time, but his arm strength will never allow this offense to reach it’s potential. He can not throw the 15 yard out or a 40 yard fly. Coles and Cotchery are playmakers that do not have the QB in Penningtonm to get them the ball.
• Mangini has no faith in his running game or offensive line. Three times this year the Jets have had 4th down and less than a yard in opponent territory, on the first drive of the game, and punted. Against New England they punted from the NE 35 or so and Brady threw a TD to Wes Welker 12 plays later. Two weeks ago the Jets had the ball in Bills territory on the first drive, 4th and short, punted, and eventually lost the game. This past weekend, on 4th and two feet, the Jets pretended like they were going to run a play and them tried to draw the Giants offsides. All the Jet fans, I would say 30-35% of the crowd wanted the Jets to go for it. They punted, and then scored a defensive TD on Jacobs’ fumble, but the point is this. You got Thomas Jones for a reason, you have two studs on your O-line in Mangold and DeBrickeshaw, show your team you have some balls and go for it. Worst case scenario is that the opponent gets the ball at about midfield. OK, but by going for the 1st down, you are not only showing faith in your offense, but also your defense.
• Jet play calling was awful at times, and predictable the rest of the time. The second INT, when the Jets had the ball at the Giant 20, 1st and 10, was ugly. The throw itself, off Pennington’s back foot, was bad. A better throw and maybe you get a TD, but why not run with Jones. Let him be the pile driver you want him to be. How many sweeps were you going to run before you realized they were not going to work? How about a few play-actions out of I-Formation on 1st down after running out of I-Form on first down 8 consecutive times?
• The Giants have two excellent between the tackle running backs. Ward and Jacobs hit the hole hard and make yards when the hole is not there. I was not sold on Jacobs until I watched him this past weekend. The man is physically imposing and runs with anger.
• The Giants can make a lot of noise in a very weak NFC, but Manning needs to stop making boneheaded mistakes. The INT at the end of the 1st half is a typical type of play that happens with alarming frequency. I like Manning and think he can lead the Giants, but those mistakes need to stop.
• This next weekend is one that Tom Coughlin needs to have the Giants ready for. Patrino will have Atlanta ready to go Monday night, but no excuses here for the Giants. They are the more talented team and a win is a must.

NFL Week 5 Picks

2007-10-05T21:24:00.000-07:00

Spreads curtesey of the Friday edition of the New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last Week 10– 4 – 0
Season 33 – 24 – 5

GIANTS (-3.5) Jets: The Giant defense is led by their pass rush and I do not see them having as great of a day as last week against the Eagles. **Note to Andy Reid—how about having the RB chip the ends last week, or better yet, why not keep calling runs, you were getting 5 yards a clip. Brutal play- calling almost got your QB killed.** The Jets will run the ball and get some plays downfield against the weak LB and secondary units the Giants present. The Giants get Brandon Jacobs back this week and I do see the Giants moving the ball. Manning is good for 1 bonehead play a game and it should happen again this weekend. I think the Jets are the better team top to bottom. This is the week Mangini has to get the Jets ready because a loss will cast serious doubts on a post-season appearance.
Pick: Jets (+3.5)

SAINTS (-3) Panthers: The by week offers time for healing, but if you are not careful, complacency could creep in. That should not happen here with the Saints. Home and desperate for a win, I expect N.O. to come out and play with heart. Breeze is better than he has shown and you expect someone touted as a leader of the team to be ready when this game starts. I hope Payton sat down with Reggie Bush and told him to hit the hole hard and don’t stop running until paydirt. Bush is a phenomenal athlete, as we all know, but needs to run with toughness between the tackles, rather than rely on stretching plays to the outside. What scares me against picking N.O. is their rush defense. John Fox has no problems running the ball 45 times if it works, with or without Jake Delhomme. Still, to much is riding on this game for New Orleans and I do not feel that Carolina is all that good.
Pick: Saints(-3)

Jaguars (-2) CHIEFS: Ugly game. What did the Chiefs prove last week? They won’t give up on a game and L.J. is still a beast. I really do not like Herm Edwards and no longer root for the Jaguars. I am rooting for a 0-0 tie.
Pick: Chiefs (+2)

REDSKINS (-3.5) Lions: This is a smelly spread. The Lions should be able to move the ball on Washington. Kevin Jones is back in the lineup. I have always liked Kevin Jones. A tough runner, good blocker and excellent out of the backfield, he adds a bit more punch to an already good offense. Calvin Johnson is looking like he will play as well, more weapons for Martz and Kitna to work with. The Redskins have had trouble scoring this season. Will that change against the Lions? They should be able to score but I do not see them staying score for score against the Lions. Gibbs will try and limit Lion offensive sets, so expect a lot of Portis- if healthy- and Ladelle Betts.
Pick: Lions(+3.5)

TITANS (-8.5) Falcons: This is another fishy line. I guess odds makers figure Atlanta is not as good as they have shown the past few weeks. Patrino seems to have the Falcons playing hard every week and the offense has been in rhythm the past few weeks. Jerious Norewood needs more touches on offense. DeAngelo Hall will be back for the entire game. There will be no by-week let down from the Titans. Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league and there is no doubt the Titans will be ready. I like the Titans to win, but 8 points seems a bit too much against a Falcon team playing solid football right now.
Pick: Falcons(+8.5)

TEXANS (-5) Dolphins: The Texan offense is simply not the same without Andre Johnson. Can they win without him? Yes, but everyone else needs to be healthy. Ahman Green returned to practice and is necessary for the ground game. WR’s Jacoby Jones and Jerome Mathis will probably miss this week. Andre Davis is serviceable, had a good week last week, and is now the Texan #1 WR. I do not know how good that sounds. Miami, as I have stated numerous times, will be in the competition for #1 overall pick in next years draft. However, with all the injuries the Texans have to deal with on offense, this may be a game Miami could win. Nahhhh, Take the Texans because Miami is bad. They made Culpepper look like Steve Young and Justin Fargus like Marcus Allen.
Pick: Texans(-5)

STEELERS (-6) Seahawks: The Seahawk defense has looked good the past few weeks. Julian Peterson is playing at an All –Pro level, and the LBs and secondary are playing at a high level. Matt Hasselbeck is finding a rhythm with his targets. I am a bit concerned with Shaun Alexander. I have watched him play three games this year and he seems to be running a bit tentative, kinda like he is trying to avoid getting hit. This needs to change soon. The Seahawks have a chance to make some real noise this season in a wide open NFC. The defense is holding up their end of the deal, but to go far, Seattle needs Alexander to be a horse. I am still not sold on Pittsburgh and this is a well balanced Seattle team.
Pick: Seahawks(+6)

PATRIOTS (-16.5) Browns: The Browns have some playmakers on offense and they should score about 20 points. How many will the Patriots score? The Browns were fortunate last week that the “offensive genius”, Brian Billick, lost his running play side of the playbook every time the Ravens were in Brown territory. The Pats know how to score in the red zone and will do so in this game. Does it even matter whom the Pats are playing at this point, or what the spread is anyway? True Story, I had a dream the other night, I pass by a TV in a room foreign to me, and the score of this game was on the TV as I walked by it. 4th Quarter, Browns 13 Pats 7.
Pick: Pats (-16.5)

Cardinals (-3.5) RAMS: The Rams are in trouble this year. An injury depleted O-line equals no offense in the NFL. The Cards are playing with spirit and will move the ball on a bad Ram defense. Is there anything good to say about the Rams at this point?
Pick: Cards (-3.5)

COLTS (-9.5) Bucs: This is one of the games I left for Friday, after the injury reports came in. I was leaning the Bucs way the entire week ; with the news that Marvin, Addai, Sanders and a very underrated Rob Morris are likely to miss this game, I need to lean with my sleeper NFC playoff pick.
Pick: Bucs (+9.5)

BRONCOS (-1) Chargers: O.K. Seriously. Is Norv Turner really that bad of a head coach? Losing to the Chiefs last week was downright atrocious. Travis Henry may not play because of his knee/ positive marijuana test. The Chargers are the more talented team and they better win this game.
Pick: Chargers(+1)

Ravens (-3.5) 49ERS: Trent Dilfer has won a Super Bowl. Weird right. I remember watching the Baltimore games that year and always taking the over. The line would be 33 at times and the game would still go under. Trent Dilfer looked uncomfortable last week against Seattle. You do not expect that from a veteran. It will help to get a full week of practice with the first team. Frank Gore is better than his numbers indicate. What does one make of the Ravens at this point? Someone still needs to explain why Billick is considered a stout offensive mind. Kyle Boller is warming up in bullpen if McNair struggles this week. I would stay very far away from this game if I were actually betting, but for the sake of statistics, I need to pick someone here. I have to give the Ravens the edge with a defense that needs to come out and dominate a game for the first time this year.
Pick: Ravens (-3.5)

PACKERS (-3) Bears: Ride the wave until it breaks.
Pick: Packers (-3)

Cowboys (-10) BILLS: The Cowboys got LB/DL Gregg Ellis and CB Terrence Newman back last week. They will both help a Cowboy defense that has yet to play well against a good offensive team. The Giants lit them up opening week, then played Miami, Chicago and St. Louis, all bad offenses when they played. Buffalo has a decent offensive line that is opening holes for a very tough Marshawn Lynch. At QB, Trent Edwards looked in total control of the offense for Buffalo last week against the Jets. He made the right reads and had a lot of poise. What happens on the Monday Night Football stage? The biggest question is whether or not the Bills can contain the Dallas offense. The Bills are a tough team and always seem to play well at home, but the Dallas offense is really clicking right now. I see Marion Barber running one in with about 6 minutes to go for a Dallas 24-13 win.
Pick: Dallas (-10)

NFL Week 4 Picks

2007-09-29T11:06:00.000-07:00

Lines courtesy of Friday’s New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last Week 8 – 5 – 3
Season 23- 20- 5

Jets (-3.5) BILLS: The Jets are the better team from top to bottom and should get the win. Jones is running with purpose behind a getting better by the week Jet offensive line. The Bills will be without MLB Paul Posluszny making it a bit easier to establish the run/ play action Jet offense. Marshawn Lynch is a tough tailback, but outside of him the Bills have established little on offense this season and go into this game with Edwards as QB. I think the Jets are a playoff team his year, so a win against a weaker opponent, even though it is a rivalry road game, is mandatory at 1-2.
Pick: Jets (-3.5)

Eagles (-3) GIANTS: Eagles offensive line vs. Giant front 7 should go the Eagles way, allowing for Westbrook to run between the tackles. McNabb is getting better each week as he gets back into game rhythm after last season was cut short by the ACL tear. Giants will be wary of play action so to minimize the big play downfield to Kevin Curtis, which worked to perfection against the Lion’s last week more than a couple times. The Eagles should move the ball and score a few TDs. The Giant offense is playing well behind a so far very solid O-line. Ward is running hard and Manning seems more poised this year than the last few. The Eagles will most likely be without Lito Shepard so Sheldon Brown will be covering a hurting, but very dangerous Plaxico Burress. I think the Eagles are the better team and will win in a divisional game that always seems to entertain.
Pick: Eagles(-3)

DOLPHINS (-4) Raiders: The Dolphins would be best served if they traded away a few of their remaining assets to get some draft picks. Jason Taylor would be welcomed addition on a contending team such as Dallas. Chris Chambers is the stud WR that Philly or Tennessee could use. For the game against the Raiders, I see Oakland winning the game on a last second FG by Janikowski, 10-9. You know how when golfing, one carries the beer with them, laying the can on the ground before shooting and then picking up the beer after the shot? Well, it would be infinitely entertaining if Janikowski came out for every FG with a beer in his hand, layed it down a few yards behind him, kicked the FG, then picked up the can and took a big slug. If allowed this method, I guarantee his kick percentage goes up to about 92.
Pick: Raiders (+4)

Texans (-3) FALCONS: In the brief Texan history, is this the first time they are road favorites? The Texans are playing very well defensively and will need to continue that trend in order to win because of injuries that have taken a toll on their depth. They will most likely be without WRs Andre Johnson and rookie Jacoby Jones. RB Ahman Green is doubtful. Atlanta seemed to get some semblance of offensive rhythm last week. Roddy White is a playmaker and I still feel they need to make Jerious Norewood the featured back. This is a game that Bobby Patrino needs to show the Atlanta fan base his quality as a head coach and have his team prepared for a tough Texan team.
Pick: Atlanta (+3)

Ravens (-4.5) BROWNS: Is Romeo Crennel a solid NFL head coach? I am really not sure, but I know that this is a game that he must have the Browns hyped up for. Crennel, a highly touted defensive coordinator for the Patriots before getting the HC job in Cleveland, has to get better production from his run defense in order to win. Kamerion Wimbley is a beast at LB, a solid playmaker on defense. The offense, which has moved the ball well the past two weeks, gets to show some mettle this week. If Winslow plays, I think the Browns move the ball again this week. He is such a mismatch for LBs, even the ones on Baltimore, and is the guy most needed in the Brown offense for them to be effective. Lewis is running hard behind an effective O-line and I bet he can’t wait to get a crack at his old team. Cleveland is playing with confidence and should be riding a two game winning streak.
Pick: Browns (+4.5)

Bears (-3) LIONS: The Bears will come into this game very banged up on defense. Vasher and Tillman are both doubtful with Lance Briggs and Tommy Harris nursing injuries. The Bears go as far as their defense will take them so these injuries are very concerning. Brian Griese needed to get a chance as starter. It may not have been all Grossman’s fault for the offensive ineptitude displayed the first 3 weeks, but a change in energy and decision making was needed. The Lions have an offense that can score in bunches and with a depleted Bear defense, will put up 20+ points. Kitna has proven himself, from his time in Cincinnati and now Detroit, as a skilled passer with a toughness to go with it.
Pick: Lions (+3)

Packers (-1.5) VIKINGS: I have been throwing darts at the Pack since the start of the season and they have thus far proved me very wrong. I do not feel that they are an elite team in the NFC and will wait for them to falter so I can say “Told you so”, but until then I am going to ride their wave.
Pick: Packers (-1.5)

COWBOYS (-13) Rams: Brian Leonard is as good or better than Steven Jackson as a receiver and a blocker. I would like to see the Rams go to an all out air attack to test a Cowboy secondary that has yet to prove they are any good. Problem is that the Rams have serious issues with the O-line and Bulger is playing with sore/broken ribs. Another problem is that the Ram defense is playing worse than their offense and are going up against a Dallas offense that is playing extremely well. Too many question marks for the Rams and the Boys are at home.
Pick: Cowboys (-13)

PANTHERS (-3) Buccaneers: I have documented in my preseason posts that I see a playoff spot for the Bucs this season. They are playing well on both sides of the ball and Gruden seems to have the confidence of his players. Carolina was fortunate last week to get DeAngelo Hall riled up enough to where he blew the game for Atlanta, handing Carolina the victory. Delhomme is unsure if he will play.
Pick: Buccaneers (+3)

Seahawks (-2) 49ERS: This is game that I really don’t know how to analyze and would certainly not bet, so I will ask a question instead. Why is football the only major sport where fan allegiance falls outside of the local teams? Let me explain. I live and have lived in NYC my whole life so I can only speak of my experience here, dealing with people that have grown up here. Immigrants to NYC from other cities in the US are not part of my question. All of my friends, and I would say most native New Yorkers like either the Mets or Yankees in baseball, the Knicks in basketball and either the Rangers or Islanders in hockey, but when it comes to football, allegiances run from coast to coast. Sure there are a lot of Jet and Giant fans, but the proportion of non Jet/ Giant fans is greater than one would imagine. Is this a nationwide phenomena? Do Miami natives root for Dallas and vice versa? How about in the New England area. Are there non Patriot fans? Somebody get on this and let me know.
Pick: 49ers (+2)

Steelers (-6) CARDINALS: The argument that Arizona has a great chance because Whissenhunt and Grimm know the Steelers better than their current coaches is bogus. The Steelers are playing excellent football and to beat them, Arizona needs to play equally excellent football. I will concede that Whisenhunt may help the Cardinals with Steeler player strengths and weaknesses, but that is it. The reason I am picking the Cardinals here is because strange things happen in the desert, Hines Ward is hurt and I kind of like the two QB system that Arizona is starting to employ. TMQ columnist Gregg Easterbrook, a guy you all should read, asked last week what will be the new offensive fad in football, the NFL in particular? The two QB system may be it.
Pick: Cardinals (+6)

CHARGERS (-11.5) Chiefs: If I was getting paid for my analysis and picks, I would spend time on this one and really delve into whether or not the Chiefs will cover. Since I am not, and have an incredible disdain for Herm Edwards, and because the Chargers are my pick as AFC champ, I am taking the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers (-11.5)

COLTS (-9.5) Broncos: This is a lousy spread, but given the Bronco lackluster play and the Colts being at home, a deserved one. I am taking the Colts based on their need to explode offensively every once in a while and this seems like a good time, at home against a reeling opponent.
Pick: Colts (-9.5)

Patriots (-7) BENGALS: Not having Rudi Johnson is a huge blow for the Bengals. Kenny Watson is serviceable, but nowhere near the quality of Rudi Johnson. Can the Bengals move the ball without Rudi. I think they can but to what extent? With Cincinnati’s defense playing as poorly as they are, how many points do the Bengals have to score to win- 25, 30, 35? Does a 30-27 Bengal win seem feasible? I read that a tactic Cincinnati may employ is a 4 down lineman, 2 LB, 5 DB defense to try and force the Pats to run. You know what, if the Bengals do go with that defense, the Pats will run on the up-until-now- horrid Bengal defense. Every time I want to write down Bengals as my pick, I get a knot in my stomach. I think my sub-conscience wants the Pats to lose, but my brain is telling me that there is no way the Bengals stop Brady and company this week. I really don’t want to do it, but..
Pick: Patriots (-7)

Fiorentina vs Roma

2007-09-26T22:57:00.000-07:00

Fiorentina vs. Roma: Got home for the last 20 minutes of the match. The penalty call against Roma in the 80 something minute was a combination of Fiorentina striker Vieri's experience and a really bad call by the referee. I am going to try and explain what happened to those that did not watch. Bear with me. Vieri was 1 on 1 with a Roma defender along the left side of the penalty area. The Roma defender went for a slide tackle and his attempt did not result in touching the ball, but was also at an angle that was innocuous to Vieri’s run. The slide tackle was very log and was initiated just as Vieri and the ball went left. As the ball was going left towards the end line, Vieri basically tripped himself on the sliding defender. It sounds weird, I know, but you need to see how long the slide tackle attempt lasted in distance to get a good picture of how Vieri easily could have avoided the defender and gotten to the ball. However, he knew if he tripped himself on the defender, a penalty would be called. Mutu chipped the ensuing penalty attempt strait down the middle as Roma’s Brazilian keeper, Doni, went right. I have watched Mutu play twice this year for Fiorentina and have been impressed with his ability from both games. I did a bit of research on his career and it seems that his goals per game has increased considerably since arriving at Florence. Mutu’s Romanian national side, which he is a vice captain of, resides atop Group G of Euro 2008 qualifying.

Week 3 Thoughts

2007-09-25T20:12:00.000-07:00

Due to my inability to consume liquor in a normal fashion, I was in the fetal position on my couch with a hangover belonging in the annals of grown man stupidity, so I was unable to go to the Rover and check out the non-local games this weekend. I employed the gulp-and-refill-my-cup immediately method of vodka-sprite imbibing on Saturday evening, as opposed to the civilized sip and wait to see the effects technique used by most upright walking humans over the age of 17. These are the 4 games I watched this weekend.

Jets defeat Dolphins: The Jets were in control of this game throughout, especially in the second half when Thomas Jones and the gelling-nicely Jet offensive line took over. The Jets are a very effective play action offense and that begins with the running game and O-line. The offense looked sharp when they needed to and it is nice to see Jones running with authority even when the gain is minimal. Pennington made a couple of nice touch passes near the end zone and was effective even though the final numbers are far from gaudy. The defense played well until the final 6 minutes. Take away a few Ronnie Brown gashes through the line and I think this was a solid effort.. Leon Washington is a nice replacement for the injured All-Pro return man Justin Miller. He was untouched on his TD return, but his speed and running back instincts should make him a viable return man. Miami got a world-class day from Ronnie Brown and some production from Chris Chambers, but there is little they have to offer as a team and are now in the lead for the First Overall Pick Sweepstakes with an 0-3 record.

Giants defeat Redskins: Not many people felt that the Giants were going to win this game and I was one of them. They played a great second half on both sides of the ball, making the big plays when needed. I have a beef with the Redskin play-calling in the second half. Every 1st down the Skins ran the ball. New York knew they were going to run and so they were ready. I do not have the stats in front of me, but I bet the Redskin average on 1st down in the second half was less than 3 yards. Also, on the last series when the Redskins were driving for the tying TD, why was Portis on the sidelines? I know Ledelle Betts is a good runner, but he is not as talented as Clinton Portis. I also did not like the time management. The first snap was botched and I am really not sure if Cambell intended to spike, but after the recovery, there was a good minute or so on the clock so why spike the ball to stop the clock forcing 3rd and goal? They could have huddled for twenty seconds, called a roll out and leave it up to Campbell to make a decision to go for the endzone or throw the ball away. Also after the 3rd down run, the Skins hurried up to the line for a quick 4th down snap. Gibbs could have been in his ear on the second down spike and the 4th down play to control his QB, guiding him and calming him down.

Cowboys defeat Bears: The Cowboys can stake claim to best team in the NFC right now. Their defense has yet to be effective against a good offense. They were torched by the Giants Week 1, handled the punchless Miami offense in Week 2 and then did a good job against a bad Bear offense this weekend. Marion Barber is a tough runner to bring down and could start seeing the majority of carries. Romo is looking very sharp and he has two quality All Pro weapons to throw to in Owens and Witten. If Patrick Crayton can get over his mental problem of saying “don’t drop it, don’t drop it, don’t drop it” when the ball is coming his way, the Cowboys will be even more potent. I am glad Lovie Smith declared Brian Griese the starter for Week 4. It may not be all Grossman’s fault on offense, especially with Benson and the WRs playing hot potato with the football, but a change is needed.

Titans defeat Saints: Every time I watch the Titans play, I jump deeper into their bandwagon. Please get Young a stud WR to rely on. Jones is ok and Moulds is way past his prime. The Titan defense has looked solid the first 3 weeks. The Saints are in bad shape at 0-3 and McCallister out for the remainder of the season. One thing I would implore Saint management to work on is getting Bush to make the correct reads at the line of scrimmage when running between the tackles. He seems to lack vision in seeing the cutback lane to move north-south when the designed running lane has been compromised, relying on his speed to try and get to the outside most times. I am sure he has been able to outrun most defenses since Pop Warner, but he is not going to outrun the defense at this level.

NFL Week 3 Picks

2007-09-22T08:08:00.000-07:00

Home Team are in CAPS. Spreads are from the Friday New York Post.

Last Week 9 -7 -0
Season 15- 15- 2

JETS (-3) Dolphins: The Jets are the better team and will get their first victory. Miami’s defense is decent but no where near the level they were playing at the past few years. Mangini will get Thomas Jones the ball early and use his effectiveness for play action purposes. Remember that the Jets have faced two of the best defenses in the league the first two weeks and were dropped passes away from sending the Baltimore game into overtime. Miami is having offensive line issues that will help the Jet defense get on track. Miami will be in the running for first overall pick in next season’s draft and this game will help them achieve that prize.
Pick: Jets (-3)

REDSKINS (-3.5) Giants: An injured triceps will force G Randy Thomas to miss most if not all of the season. He is a very effective lineman, but the Skins should not be too concerned. Rather than filling in his spot with a young player, veteran Jason Fabini will take over at RG. The fall off will be minimal and the Redskins should be able to move the ball against a Giant defense that has not showed up yet this season. Even if the Giant’s defensive strength, the defensive line, comes to play, QB Jason Cambell has the mobility to escape the pocket and make some plays on the run against a very weak Giant secondary. Giant QB Eli Manning has played very well in the first two games, has the weapons to move the ball, and combined with an offensive line that is playing well, should score a few touchdowns. The thing that keeps popping in my head is the abysmal Giant defense and until they fix the problem, cannot be counted on to win games, or in my case, cover the spread.
Pick: Redskins (- 3.5)

Cols (-6) TEXANS: A big test for Houston’s line play. Without playmaker and all world WR Andre Johnson, the Texans need to 1) run the ball to control clock and 2) get pressure on Manning. The Texan O-line is playing well this year and should get some running lanes for Green and if that goes well, some time for Schaub to throw. The thing is though, who will Schuab throw to? The Texans do have two pass catching TE in Owen Daniels and Jeb Putzier who will get the majority of looks. Pre- season rookie standout Jacoby Jones will get his chance to shine in Johnson’s absence and is a deep threat assuming the Texans can establish a running game. The Texan defensive line is playing well with the LBs and secondary doing a decent job. We all know about the Colt offensive prowess so I will not say much about them here except that playing on the turf in Houston is similar to their home turf, so their team speed and timing rhythm in their passing game will be in sync. I documented in my AFC South Preview that a 9 win season for Houston was realistic this year. With a healthy Andre Johnson this game would be a no brainer for me to pick Houston, but that is not the case this week.
Pick: Colts (-6)

Chargers (-5) PACKERS: Did Favre convince anyone that he is still the passer he was a few years back due to his domination of the Giants? He is not what he once was and there are still no playmakers on the outside for him to get the ball to. The chargers have a very good defense that will get to Favre and force him into some turnovers. Offensively the Chargers are ready to break out. Regardless of the Packer strong defense and this being a road tilt, I see the Chargers putting up 30+ points this week simply because they are too talented on the offensive line, QB, RB and TE. Facing the Bears and then a motivated Patriot team is not a real indicator to how good your offense is, especially this early in the season. LT will shine this week as will the entire Charger team against an inferior Packer squad that will lay it’s chances on their defense.
Pick: Chargers (-5)

CHIEFS (-3) Vikings: In what will surely be the 1pm -game-not-shown-if-your-bar-does-not-have-enough-TVs, the Vikings will get the ball to Peterson and then rely on a good defense to bottle up Herm Edwards’ pre forward pass offensive game plan. I will be picking against the Chiefs all season.
Pick: Vikings (+3)

EAGLES (-6) Lions: This is a smelly spread. I guess the odds-makers figure that the Lions really have not beaten anyone yet and the Eagles gave away both games. A big question here is will the Eagle secondary be able to go up against the Lions’ receiving corp of Roy Williams, Mike Furry and Calvin Johnson? They should be able to limit the big plays and make enough stops to help McNabb get on track. The Eagle receivers need to get open, especially Kevin Curtis. He looked really good in pre-season 1st team reps but has yet to show that form in the first 2 games of the season. Westbrook should have a nice day. Bottom line here is that the Eagles are a better team and need to pick up the win. I see a back door cover by the Eagles here on a late FG to make the final score
27-20.
Pick: EAGLES (-6)

PATRIOTS (-16.5) Bills: Buffalo has shown very little offensively the first two weeks and traveling to New England will not help. The Pats are playing superior football right now and even though the Bills have some defensive playmakers, Brady and company are on a different level and should move the ball this week. I would normally see a spread this high and automatically go with the dog, but a 40-17 final is a realistic outcome.
Pick: PATS (-16.5)

STEELERS (-9) 49ers: Pitt has yet to be tested this season and the niners are coming off two close, hard earned victories so they are more battle tested than Pitt. The loss of OLB Manny Lawson is a tough blow to the niner defense because of his tremendous speed on the outside. However, the 49ers still have an aggressive defense with good team speed and a defensive front that is playing well (6 sacks last week), so they will get pressure on Rothlisberger, forcing him to make quicker reads than he has been forced to make so far this season. Frank Gore is running very strong, has been the 49er offense thus far and should be able to find some room behind an offensive line that is playing well. For San Fran to win this game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has shown. Off season WR acquisition Darrell Jackson and physically intimidating TE Vernon Davis need to be thrown to more. I can’t say that I see the 49ers winning this game, but 9 points is a lot.
Pick: 49ers (+9)

RAVENS (-8) Cardinals: A big test for Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt to keep Leinart calm. Matt Leinart has shown flashes of talent this season but has been very inconsistent. Zona will try to establish Edge but the crux of potential victory will fall on Leinart’s shoulders. Baltimore still boasts a top notch defense and will be the reason they win this game. I just don’t see them dominating on the offensive end against the Cards. Arizona is playing with a lot of confidence coming off of their win against Seattle last week and should be able to carry that momentum to this week keeping the score close.
Pick: Zona (+8)

BUCS (-3.5) Rams: I documented that the Bucs will be a playoff team this year so why not pick them at home against a reeling St. Louis team. Aside from Steven Jackson, the offense looked old and slow the first two weeks and the defense looked less than ordinary. Tampa is feeling good about themselves and Cadillac will have a big game this week. He plays with a recklessness that gets him hurt sometimes, but he is a big time RB that is looking to make amends on an off year last year. The Tampa defense has looked good the first two weeks and should be able to disrupt Bulger and contain Jackson to under 100 yards because of the Rams’ offensive line issues.
Pick: BUCS (-3.5)

BRONCOS (-3) Jags: The Jags score 13 points at home against the Falcons and are only 3 point dogs in Denver? The linesmen in Vegas know a lot more than I do, but for reasons I described in my AFC South Preview, I refuse to take the Jaguars this year.
Pick: BRONCOS (-3)

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) Bengals: The Bengal defense was beaten down last week, while I’m not going to say it was a total fluke, I will say that they are better than their showing against Cleveland. They do have talent at every level on defense in DE Justin Smith, LB Landon Johnson and CB Deltha O’Neal so the playmakers are there. The defensive unit need not be Chicagoesque for the Bengals to win, just hold the opponents under 27 and the Bengals can win any week because of their offense. I like the hook in this game.
Pick: Bengals (+3.5)

RAIDERS (3) Browns: The Raider defense is solid and could control the game, but if last week’s exceptional offensive line play by the Browns becomes the norm rather than the exception, the Browns have the talent to put up some points. I see the Browns playing well again and winning this game outright.
Pick: Browns (+3)

Panthers (-3.5) FALCONS: Does anyone really care about either of these two teams? The Falcons do not have much on offense and really need to get the ball more into Jerious Norewood’s hands. Why have Warrick Dunn be your starter when you know he is almost through with his career? See what you have in Norewood by making him the full time starter so you can go into the draft next year with a clear idea of the RB situation. It will be fun to watch a top 5 cover corner in DeAngelo Hall go up against a top 5 receiver in Steve Smith. The Panthers are the more talented team and should win this game.
Pick: Panthers (-3.5)

BEARS (-3) Cowboys: The cowboys moved offensively the first two weeks on the strength of their talented offense and maybe more influential, the lack of a good defense across from them. The Bears pose a much stronger test to Romo et. all and will be able to disrupt the Cowboy attack. The question with the Bears will remain until further notice “Can they score?”. I want to see Benson play with confidence, run hard at the Cowboy line so to bring Roy Williams closer to the box to open up play action. I am taking the Bears here but this is a very difficult game to analyze and I would not lay any cheddar on this one.
Pick: BEARS (-3)

SAINTS (-4) Titans: The Titans are playing with confidence against a desperate and very talented Super Bowl pick in New Orleans. The Saints are much more talented than they have shown the first two weeks, but I have never looked at them as being a Super Bowl entrant this season. I like their offense but their defense is a bit shaky and was exposed in weeks 1 and 2. The Titans go into every game with an FU attitude which resonates directly from the coach. Vince Young has leadership quality of impeccable worth on this young offense. They need to get him a reliable target soon. I see the Titans running the ball a whole lot in this game and they should keep it close until the end with a stingy defense. I hope Young has the ball in his hands with a few minutes to go, down by a couple of points.
Pick: Titans (-4)

Champion's League

2007-09-19T07:52:00.000-07:00

My favorite annual tournament. As I documented in my EPL Preview post a while back, I think Liverpool will win the Champion's League title this year. Real Madrid will get to the semi final round, as will Roma. Roma is a team no one is really looking at with championship merit in either Seria A or in Champion's League play. Their acquisition of Giuly could be the transfer steal of the campaign and he compliments an experienced and talented side that will be in serious contention for the Seria A title as well Champion's League glory. The fourth team will be Man U or A.C. Milan.

A friend recently went to Vegas and I asked him to get these bets in for me:
Liverpool winning EPL, got the bet in at 2-1
Liverpool winning Champion's League,did not get bet in
A.S. Roma winning Seria A, did not get bet in
Andre Johnson of the Houston Texans leading the NFL in receiving yards, did not get bet in

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

2007-09-17T15:47:00.001-07:00

Here are my thoughts on games I watched this weekend

Texans defeat Panthers: The Texans are very fast on defense. They have two playmakers on the line in Mario Williams and rookie Okoye. Dunta Robinson is a very good cover corner who played Steve Smith very tight yesterday. The two touchdowns scored in the first half by Smith were on a missed tackle for 7 yards and a 12 yarder that actually hit off of Robinson’s helmet, into the air, and then into Smith’s hands. The last TD Smith had was a short over the middle dump off where he broke about 6 Houston defenders , so that was hardly Dunta’s fault. I liked the way Houston responded to being down 14-0. In years past the game would have been over, but there is a new confidence in Houston. Houston beat the Panthers down from mid 1st quarter on from both sides of the line of scrimmage. A cause for concern is Andre Johnson going down with a knee injury. He is their playmaker and offensive leader. Any extended absence from Johnson and the Texans will be hard pressed to keep winning.

Steelers defeat Bills: The Bill defense played admirably in the 1st half and then simply were too tired in the second half. J.P. Losman had one good drive the entire game and he needs to begin playing up to his preseason hype. Marshan Lynch looked good again and ran tough. I like the call by Buffalo’s head coach to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Pitt 40 yard line on Buffalo’s first possession. They should have ran the ball with Lynch but sometimes it is the thought that counts. The Steelers seem to be a solid team but I feel they still have not been tested. The 49ers come into Pittsburgh this week off of a good road win in St. Louis.

Colts defeat Titans: Every time I felt the Colts were going to run away with the game, the Titan defense would get a big play. Tennessee plays with a lot of heart and if not for a lack of receivers, could have pulled the game out at the end. The Titans need to get Vince Young someone viable to throw to because it is a shame watching his good decisions and deft passing going to waste due to wide receiver ineptitude. The Colts are an excellent team and it seems to me that Manning and his receivers are more in tune with one another this year than they were last season. Anthony Gonzalez is a tremendous talent and seems to have learned the offense to the point where Manning is looking his way in big spots.

Bucs defeat Saints: This game was on a corner TV of the bar away from where I was so it was tough to see the game. I went over a few times but did not get a sense of how the game was flowing so I really have no comment here. In looking at the box score this morning, I see that McCallister got only 10 carries. He needs more that that for the Saints to turn their season around.

Browns defeat Bengals: This is one of the most entertaining games I have ever watched. It seemed like one of those late night drunken Madden games when both guys score at will because both guys are too inebriated to bother playing defense. I have documented in previous posts that the Browns are better team than most people think. I must admit that there was little thought in my mind that the Bengals would lose to the Browns. This game showed me that the Bengal defense needs to get a whole lot better if they want to make a deep playoff run. The defensive line play from the Bengals was abysmal. Lewis had truck lanes to run through and Anderson was never really pressured into making mistakes. It was nice to see Jamal Lewis run past the defensive backfield on his long TD run. I remember watching in amazement during the 2003 campaign how fast he was for a man his size once he got to the DB level. Braylon Edwards made three or four All Pro type catches and Kellen Winslow is a mismatch for 95% of the linebackers in the NFL. The Browns have a winnable game next week in Oakland.

49ers beat Rams: The Rams start 0-2 with both losses at home, no good. I am concerned with the numerous dropped passes I saw from the Rams yesterday. With a banged up offensive line providing little room for Stevie J to run, the receivers have to hold on to everything. I loved the call by Nolan to go for it on 4th and 1 from mid filed late in the 3rd quarter. They were down 13-7 at the time and the defense was suffocating the Rams. The end result was an impressive TD run by Gore where he broke about 5 tackles at or near the line of scrimmage. The Rams will not win many games this year without having improved offensive line play from what has transpired since Pace got hurt for the season in the second half last week. The 49ers get to see what kind of 2-0 team they are when they go to Pittsburgh next week.

Cowboys defeat Dolphins: I was at my parent’s house for dinner so I did not watch this game. I did however win $50 from a friend who for some reason thought Miami would cover the spread. Miami is really bad and will fight with KC for 1st pick in next year’s draft.

Jaguars defeat Falcons: Jerious Norwood needs to get the ball more in Atlanta. Warrick Dunn is a good RB but lacks the explosion that this offense needs to score. Harrington actually looked decent yesterday and Roddy White made some nifty catches. Atlanta was up 7-3 when they missed a short field goal that could have propelled them to victory considering the Jaguar offensive ineptitude yesterday. The Jags are a bad team and a boring team to watch. I am concerned with the Jaguar offensive line. The running game is supposed to be their strong suit on offense but they are really not doing much up front in terms of opening up running lanes. With Gerrard at helm and a cast of average receivers, the Jags need to run the ball to score and it has not happened the first two weeks.

Broncos defeat Raiders: Did not watch.

Lions defeat Vikings: Did not watch but highlights suggest Tavarious Jackson may not be the answer at QB for the Vikes.

Bears defeat Chiefs: Did not watch.

Patriots defeat Chargers: Why did Norv Turner not try running the ball with LT when they recovered the fumbled kickoff in Pat’s territory during the second half when they were down 31-14. Sack, Sack , incompletion, punt and the game was over. You could see it in LT’s face when he was coming off the field after that sequence that he was as perplexed as I was. The Patriots are in a grove right now and Moss looks incredible. Two questions the Chargers need to ask themselves is 1) Who are my corner backs, and 2) Who are my wide receivers.

Packers defeat Giants: Even though this game was on the big screen, I barely paid attention. If I stayed home for this bleeder I may have jumped out the window.

Ravens defeat Jets: I went to my parent’s house for dinner after the one o’clock games so I only caught the last 8 minutes or so. I did not see Clemens play. I did see his receivers drop three touchdown passes on the final drive though. My pick of the Jets finishing ahead of the Pats in the AFC East is looking very grim even after the 2nd week simply because the Pats look that good.

Spurs v. Gunners

2007-09-15T07:43:00.000-07:00

Anyone just watch Tottenham piss away the game this morning. Keane looks slow and why does Jenas seem to be playing a defensive supporting midfield position rather than attack. Berbatov and Bent both had chances at the end and could not cash in. Well played Gunners, you deserve the win with an attack marked by fluid passing and timely runs. It must be nice for Arsenal fans to root for young, hungry players every game. If not for Robinson at goal, the game could have been 5-1. I feel that my choice of Tottenham finishing 3rd in the EPL is a poor one to say the least. 1 win in 7 games is relegation material and time seems to be running short on Jol's position with Spurs.

Week 2 Outlook

2007-09-14T19:18:00.000-07:00

The spreads being used here are from the Friday New York Daily News. Home Team in CAPS.

Last Week: 6-8-2
Season: 6-8-2

GIANTS (PK) Packers : With no definitive report on Manning yet, most people will tend to side with the Packers. I am not one of these people. The Packers do have a balanced defense that will make it tough on the Giants to score, but I can not see the Packer offense doing anything this year and this week should be no exception. Dallas did burn the Giant secondary last week, but that was with an accurate Tony Romo throwing to T.O. and Jason Witten. Brett Favre has not been solid in two years and his receiving chore is less than desirable. If Manning plays this is a definite win for the Giants. Should Lorenzen start for the Giants, I would not wager on this game, but for the sake of picking I will take the Giants.
Pick -- Giants PKem

RAVENS (-10) Jets: I like that the Ravens only lost by a TD last week even though they had 6 turnovers against a top offense in the Bengals. If Baltimore coach Billick would have run McGahee a bit more last week, especially during the final drive, Baltimore could have pulled it out. Someone remind me why Billick is considered an offensive geneous? McGahee has had some great games against the Jets and the trend should continue. Mangini will have the team ready to play and I like the Jets here getting 10 points. Seems a bit much.
Pick -- Jets +10

STEELERS (-10) Bills: The Steelers were not tested last week at all. The game against Cleveland got ugly real quick. Buffalo will be more of a challenge. Coming off of a good showing against the Broncos I figure the 10 point line is due to the ineptitude of Buffalo’s offense last week. Buffalo will disrupt Rothlisberger and the Bills will show a better offense this week.
Pick – Bills +10

Bengals (-7) BROWNS: The game last week against Pittsburgh was over early so it is tough to tell exactly what Cleveland has. If Anderson struggles early expect Quinn to see some time. The Browns defense will play better than last week. Will they play well enough to win? Probably not, but they will play well enough to give the offense a chance to score and keep the game close. Expect the Browns to run Lewis A LOT this week against a weak Bengal run defense and try to get their emotional leader and playmaker, TE Kellen Winslow, involved early. I think the Browns are better than most people think this year and I can’t jump ship just yet on that thought.
Pick – BROWNS (+ 7)

Colts (-7) TITANS: I have documented how I like the way the Titans play hard and are not scared of any team, but how impressive did the Colts look against New Orleans? Is the spread too high? Maybe, but the Colts offense will outpace Tennessee, who lack firepower.
Pick – Colts (-7)

PANTHERS (-6.5) Texans: The Panther are a much more formidable opponent for the Texans than were the Chiefs last week, but I am on the Texans’ bandwagon until further notice.
Pick – Texans (+6.5)

RAMS (-3) 49ers: The loss of Orlando Pace is huge, affecting the Ram running and passing game. I like the 49er defense this year and they will give the Rams some problems. Frank Gore should be able to run against the Rams. The Rams really need this one because with a loss, they fall to 0-2 with both losses being at home.
Pick – 49ers (+ 3)

JAGS (-10) Falcons: 10 points is too much to give any Jaguars opponent. This is the worst game of the week and outside of Atlanta and Jacksonville, will be the game dropped from viewing if your bar of choice does not have enough TVs to cover all the games.
Pick – Falcons (+10)

Saints (-3) BUCS: This is a fishy line. A Super Bowl hopeful against a team few believe in. Well, I think the Bucs are better than most people think.
Pick – BUCS (+3)

LIONS (-3) Vikings: A road win regardless where is impressive in the NFL so hats off to Detroit for the win in Oakland last week. The Viking defense is solid as is their offensive line which boasts a left side of LG Hutchinson and LT McKinney. They will get lanes for Adrian Peterson to scamper through and for Tavarious Jackson to throw.
Pick – Vikings (+3)

Cowboys (-3.5) DOLPHINS: Another smelly line. Miami will be fighting KC for worst record in the AFC this season so why is the spread not 6.5-7. Regardless, if the Cowboys have Super Bowl aspirations, they need to beat up on inferior opponents like the Dolphins.Pick – Cowboys (- 3.5)

Seahawks (-3) CARDINALS: The Seahawks are my pick to win the NFC West so logic dictates that they should beat the Cards this week. However, logic sometimes makes no sense so in a wide open NFC West, I am taking the Cards here based on nothing more than wanting to see them win in a shootout at home
Pick – CARDS (+3)

BRONCOS (-10) Raiders: The Raiders gave up 36 points at home last week against the Lions. Now they go to Denver most probably with Culpepper at helm. A big spread for a division rival but Denver is the better team. This is a good candidate for a backdoor cover by the favorite.
Pick – BRONCOS (-10)

BEARS (-12) Chiefs: KC is the worst team in the NFL and I would like to see Herman Edwards lose every game this year in miserable fashion. How about a nice 27- 3 final this week.
Pick – BEARS (-12)

PATS (-3.5) Chargers: Videogate 2007 was blown way out of proportion. Every team has people trying to decipher defensive signals. Belichick had the balls to video it. Pundits were calling for more than loss of a 1st round pick next year. Why? Someone explain. This team is built around the draft and astute personnel moves, so the loss of a 1st round pick is huge for them. Dock them a second round pick as well if a first round pick is not enough, but don’t tell me that Belichick is trying to do things no other team in the NFL is doing. As for the game itself, I have the Bolts going to the Super Bowl so I will take them in this game.
Pick – Chargers (+3.5) gotta love the hook in this one.

EAGLES (-6.5) Redskins: Both teams had bad days offensively last week. The Eagles are the better team and they are at home.
Pick – EAGLES (-6.5)

NFL Week 1 Thoughts

2007-09-10T20:07:00.000-07:00

These are my thoughts on games that I watched this weekend.

New England at Jets: I am going to take a page from Gregg Easterbrook here and tell you when I wrote “game over” in my mental notebook. First drive of the game, Jets are facing 4th and a long yard at about New England’s 40 yard line. I felt that a strong message of WE ARE HERE TO WIN could have been sent to the Patriots and more importantly to the Jets’ young O-line if Mangini went for it. He chose to punt. I looked at my buddy who was there with me, a rugby fan who had more interest in the Scotland/ Portugal match, and said that the Jet game was over. What did they have to lose? If you fail, they still need to go about 30 yards to get a field goal. The Patriots took possession at the Jet 15 or so, and proceeded to go on a 10 minute TD drive. The Patriots cruised the rest of the way.
** Gregg Easterbrook is an ESPN Page 2 columnist whose TMQ article can be read every Tuesday. I encourage you to read his articles.

Chiefs at Texans: I have documented in my AFC South Preview post that I expect good things from the Texans this season, especially from their defense. They did not disappoint. The only problem is that the opponent were the Chiefs, who will be in season long struggle to score. Carolina will be a much stronger test in Week 2.

Miami at Washington: The game was in a corner TV and was out of my view.

Denver at Buffalo: Surprisingly, this game was switched to the Yankee game for an older gentleman sitting in the corner bar area that requested it. I did not watch the game, but found out about the devastating injury to Kevin Everett. May God bless you. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

Atlanta at Minnesota: Thankfully not televised at the bar.

Philly at Green Bay: Philly was the better team. The Philly offense did not play crisply but that will change in the coming weeks. The Eagle defense was stingy all day and if not for the two muffed punt returns, the Eagles would have most likely won the game. The Packer offense was terrible and I do not see why that will change as the season wears on because there are no playmakers in Green Bay.

Pitt at Cleveland: I don’t really think the defense played that bad. The Brown defense was forced to defend a short field for most of the day. The final score was a product more of Cleveland’s offensive ineptitude, rather than porous defense. The Brady Quinn era needs to start soon because Frye looked terrible, and Anderson really did not have the body language of someone that wanted to be out there. TE Kellen Winslow came to play. I give credit to Pittsburgh for winning a game that I though they would have trouble with. I really do hope Ben Roethlisberger is fully recovered from his head injuries incurred in his motorcycle accident last year. He looked very much in control and played with the poise he exhibited his rookie year.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: Jeff Fischer has this team ready to win every week and more importantly, believing that they are the better team. Vince Young is a true field general and leader, who needs to be given better people to throw to. I like watching Tennessee play because they are not afraid from the coach on down to the players. Regarding Jacksonville, I documented in my AFC South Preview how I felt about them and my opinion has not changed any.

Carolina at St. Louis: Steven Jackson is better than he showed, as is the rest of the St. Louis offense. The doubts surrounding the Ram defense were not quelled against Carolina. They were beaten at the line and in the secondary consistently, and I never got the felling that they were going to make a big stop. The Panthers played well all around , especially Delhomme and the running back tandem of Williams and Foster.

Chicago at Chargers: Did not watch most of this game, but did see that the Bear RBs put the ball on the ground too often for them to win any game.

Week 1 Outlook

2007-09-09T09:11:00.000-07:00

Here are my picks for Week 1 of the NFL season. Weeks 1 through Week 4 are the toughest to call against the spread because no one really knows what to expect this early on. In the future I will try and give a synopsis of why I chose the winners of each individual game, but due to lack of time I will simply give the winner of each game against the spread.

Jets (+6.5), Cowboys (-6), Texans (-3), Bills (+3), Browns (+4.5), Titans (+ 7.5),
Rams (-1), Eagles (-3), Falcons (+3), Redskins (-3), Bucs (+6), Bears (+6),
Lions (+2.5), Bengals (-2.5), Cards (+3)

NFC Playoff Predictions

2007-09-08T09:50:00.000-07:00

I see the Final 4 comprised of Philly, Dallas, Chicago and Seattle. The other two playoff teams will be New Orleans and Tampa Bay. New Orleans is a sexy pick to make it to the Super Bowl but they will not make it past the 1st round if they can not do something about their defense.

Conference Championship game:

Chicago and Philly

NFC West Preview

2007-09-08T09:46:00.000-07:00

Predictions: All four teams will score, but which of these teams will stop other teams from scoring. The most balanced defense in this division is Seattle who made upgrades at DL and DB. They will win the division and I predict the other three teams will finish in a tie for second place.

1) Seahawks 2) 49ers, Rams and Cardinals

NFC South Preview

2007-09-08T09:44:00.000-07:00

Carolina Panthers: This is essentially the same team as last season. Management felt that last year was simply a bad season and made no significant changes. I have questions about the offense, which looked miserable in pre-season games that I watched. Outside of Steve Smith, who will make plays? DeAngelo Williams is still unproven and DeShaun Foster has yet to become the big time running back Carolina expected when they drafted him in 2002. The defense is solid throughout and is led by an outstanding D-line. Former All Pro DT Kris Jenkins played in all 16 games last year after missing most of 2004 and 2005. Look for him to get back to Honolulu.

Atlanta Falcons. I do not see much coming out of Atlanta this year but the Falcon’s may be the ultimate test of “The Ewing Theory”. Here is a link that will explain the Ewing Theory and how it pertains to the Atlanta Falcons.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page
=simmonspreview/070906&sportCat=nfl

New Orleans Saints: The Saints have the offense to get into the playoffs, but they need to do a much better job on defense than they showed against the Colts on opening night to have a chance at getting to the Super Bowl.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A much better season is looming this year for the Bucs who suffered through a miserable 4-12 season last year. The offense will be better with an improved offensive line and new QB Jeff Garcia. The defense is much better than last year’s play indicated and will be helped by the additions of DE Kevin Carter and LB Cato June. The loss of Simeon Rice could be offset nicely by 1st round draft pick Gains Adams who will be starting by week 4.

Predictions:

1) Saints 2) Bucs 3) Panthers 4) Falcons

NFC North Preview

2007-09-07T15:47:00.000-07:00

Chicago Bears: Grossman will be just fine this year throwing to Berrian, Muhhamad and a couple of good TEs in Desmond Clark and 1st round drafty choice Ben Olsen. My concern lies with Cedric Benson. Will he take the role of #1 RB by the cajones, lead the Bears with determination and heart, or will he falter? The Bears will make the postseason without a great running attack because of their standout defense, but as we all know, you need to run the ball to win in the playoffs. Barring injury, I see a productive year from Benson, with a 4+ yard per carry average behind a very cohesive, veteran offensive line. The defense will rank in the top 5 and is the strength of this team.

Detroit Lions: Defense wins and the Lions are not very strong there. Outside of excellent MLB Ernie Simms and possibly DT Cory Redding, nobody on defense scares offensive coordinators. Two players that need to step up are DT Shaun Rogers and OLB Boss Baily. Rogers has never fulfilled his All Pro billing and Baily is a playmaker that needs to play hard for all 16 games. Offensively, the offensive line has some depth, but nobody really stands out except for LT Jeff Backus. Jon Kitna has a great arm, weapons to throw to and an offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, that game plan to an offenses strength. Kitna and the offense will have success if two things happen; 1) Limit the INT’s and 2) get dependable RB play. Kitna said they would 10 games, I don’t believe it.

Green Bay: I’m bored of this team. Favre has been overthrowing receivers for two years now and this pre-season was no different. The defense, led by two very talented LBs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk, is solid and will help the Packers fight for a 2nd place finish in the division, but issues on offense will keep them out of the post-season.

Minnesota Vikings: The defense will be the strength of this team but not enough talent on offense to compete for the post-season. It will be fun to watch Adrian Peterson run and Tavaris Jackson use his athleticism to make some nifty plays. Every year there is a team that everyone writes off as trash, only to see that team make a ton of noise. This is the prime candidate in the NFC because only Viking fans have them finishing in the playoffs.

Predictions:

1) Bears 2) Lions 3) Packers 4) Vikings

NFL Opening Night

2007-09-06T14:30:00.000-07:00

Saints at Colts

These are two teams with Super Bowl hopes and questions on defense. Combined with offenses that move the ball effectively, a high scoring game is probable. Seems to me that 6 points is a bit too much and I will take...

Saints with the Over.

NFC East Preview

2007-09-05T16:50:00.000-07:00

New York Giants: The Giants will have a tough time getting to 8 wins this year. The offensive line is adequate and will give Manning time to get the ball downfield to Burress, Toomer and Shockey. Brandon Jacobs is unproven as a full time starter so it will be interesting to see his stamina as the season goes along. Big questions on defense will keep the Giants out of the playoffs. Athletic DE Justin Tuck could see some time at DT because the Giants are so weak there. Who will be playmakers behind Umenyiora and Strahan? Aside from MLB Antonio Pierce, the giants have very little behind the D-line and they will be exploited throughout the season.

Dallas Cowboys: The offensive line is an NFL elite unit that will protect an as of now overrated Romo and create running lanes for Jones and Barber. Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens are both veterans who know how to get the job done. Throw in Jason Witten and the cowboys should find the end zone often if Romo lives up to expectations. All Pro LB DeMarcus Ware and All Pro S Roy Williams anchor a very strong defense. LB depth will be a problem if Ware or ILB Akin Ayodele miss games or if OLB Gregg Ellis cannot recover from his Achilles injury in time for the start of the season. The second CB spot is a concern that will need to be remedied if the Cowboys want to make a strong playoff run. The Cowboys will be in the playoffs unless Romo flops.

Philadelphia Eagles: McNabb will play this season with a chip on his shoulder and if he stays healthy, will vie for the league MVP. I consider him a top 3 QB in the NFL. He seems to have developed a nice rapport with free agent signing Kevin Curtis. Combine that with continued maturity from Reggie Brown, the play of always-reliable Brian Westbrook, and an excellent offensive line , the Eagles only question on offense will center on player health. Defensively, the Eagles are thin and inexperienced at LB. Takeo Spikes was a steal for the Eagles if he is fully recovered from a torn Achilles. Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson have faith in unproven MLB Omar Gaither and OLB Chris Gocong to fill in the LB spots next to Spikes. The secondary ranks in the top five and is the strength of the defense. The Eagles defensive line has to make strides this year, especially at DT, for the Eagles to make a Super Bowl run. A healthy Javon Kearse will help Trent Cole have a breakout year and the Eagles hope that 2006 1st round pick DT Brodrick Bunkley improves on a sup-par season a year ago.

Washington Redskins: The big question here is at QB. Jason Campbell is in a watershed year with the Redskins. He either produces or they will find someone else next year, possible sooner. The ability is there and the above average offensive line will protect him, so it will be fun to watch and see how he produces as a clear-cut #1 starter for the Redskins. A healthy Clinton Portis, along with rugged Ladell Betts form a great tandem at RB and should produce behind a solid O-Line. Defensively, the questions start at the D-line. They are all about average and the Redskins are looking for a play maker to emerge. The LBs are solid. The second CB spot behind Shawn Springs is also a question. It will be between free agent signings Fred Smoot, David Maklin and 2005 1st round draft choice Carlos Rogers. I would like to see Rogers get it and perform well.

Predictions: The Eagles and Cowboys will fight it out for the NFC East title, but both teams are quality enough to make it into the playoffs. Given the Redskin offensive line and solid defense, a productive Jason Campbell will give Washington good feelings about next year. I say they finish tied with the Giants for 3rd place this year.

1) Eagles 2) Cowboys 3) Redskins 3) Giants

AFC Final 4 and Super Bowl Representative

2007-09-04T20:50:00.000-07:00

The AFC final four will be comprised of the Colts, Bengals, Chargers and Ravens. The other two teams in the playoffs will be the Jets and Patriots.

San Diego will go on to the Super Bowl

AFC West preview

2007-09-04T20:46:00.000-07:00

Denver Broncos: Will Jay Cutler perform well? Will Travis Henry become the 1600 yard back most expect him to be? These are the two main questions with the Broncos this year. Cutler will play well but I am not so sure that the offensive line is strong enough this year to propel Henry to a lofty yardage plateau. The right side especially is a concern and no matter how effective the blocking schemes are, you need the personnel to execute. The addition of Dre’ Bly is a response to the tragic death of Darrent Williams. Bly is an accomplished veteran and will help the defense. The biggest concern defensively is the defensive line. The loss of Ekuban to a torn achilles is huge. The most accomplished player on the D-line is Sam Adams, a 34 year old run stopper who is too big to be out there on every play. Ian Gold and D.J. Williams are solid linebackers and will help against the run, but the Broncos will have a tough time stopping the run and need to make upgrades there if they are to win if they make it to the post season. S John Lynch is past his prime and will be a liability in pass coverage. They will finish 2nd in the division, but a playoff spot is certainly not guaranteed.

Kansas City Chiefs: Led by the most overrated coach in the NFL, Herm Edwards, the Chiefs will find winning 6 games difficult this year. Brian Waters and Casey Weigman lead an offensive line that two years ago was tops in the NFL, but now are a second tier group at best. Larry Johnson is awesome, but needs room to run the line needs to get better in a hurry for that to happen. Damon Huard is a decent backup QB, but the Chiefs are asking a lot if they want him to produce the way he did last year behind this O-line and throwing to a receivers who are either past their prime, or never had one. Huard should look for Tony Gonzalez and hope all goes well. The defense is solid, but in no area do they excel. Look for DE Tamba Hall to have an excellent season. Donnie Edwards leads the linebackers, the strength of the defense. Edwards is extremely athletic and could fit into any defensive scheme. Ty Law and Patrick Surtain are the CBs. The chiefs hope to get one more good year from the both of them. The defense will keep the Chiefs in games, but they lack any offense or coaching that scares anyone.

Oakland Raiders: This team is coming off a 2 win season and are coached by a 32 year old with ZERO coaching experience in the NFL. Good luck with that. The O-line is awful, which will plague the skill position players’ productivity. Cullpepper should be the starter and he could have fun throwing the ball to Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter, two players everyone is waiting for to reach their potential. LaMont Jordan is a good running back on a bad team and I feel sorry for him because he is talented. His full potential will never be seen as a Raider. The Raider defense has two perennial All Pro candidates that the casual fan may never hear about; DE Dderrick Burgess and CB Nnamdi Asomugha should be the cornerstones of the defense for the next few years. Kirk Morrison is a solid MLB who led the team in tackles last year and is poised for a breakout year.

San Diego Chargers: I am not going to spend a lot of time here. The Chargers are the most complete team in the AFC and are my pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Two concerns I have are these: 1) Will Vincent Jackson step into the #1 receiver spot the way the Chargers are counting on? 2) Is the secondary good enough to cover elite WRs that will be testing them in the playoffs?

Predictions:

1) Chargers 2) Broncos 3) Chiefs 4) Raiders

AFC South Preview

2007-09-03T09:32:00.000-07:00

Houston Texans: Offensive production, or lack there of, for all teams begins with the offensive line. A team can have marquee names at the skill positions, but the O-line is what makes it all click. Bringing in Matt Schaub and Ahman Green means nothing if the Texan line does not improve from a sub-par 2006. The Texans did little to upgrade the line in hopes that the players from last year gel and grow from being together last year. They signed Jordan Black away from KC and drafted Brandon Frye in the 5th round. Frye will probably start the year as a reserve while Black could push for a spot. Ahman Green had a decent year for a bad Green Bay team last year, getting 1400 total yards from scrimmage. He brings a sense of leadership and competitiveness that has been lacking in Houston and in the games I have seen so far, seems to be running very well. Of course, there is always Ron Dayne as back up. Matt Schaub hopes to be a better leader than David Carr. Although you can not put all the blame on David Carr for his lack of better production in Houston, it was time to move on. Schaub has a true #1 receiver in Andre Johnson. If I was asked to name the 5 receivers I want on my team, it would be hard pressed for me not to put Andre Johnson on that list. 3rd round pick Jacoby Jones has dazzled in the pre-season as a return man and could also find some time as the Texan’s #2 receiver, offering some downfield help and big play capability. Defensively, the Texans are going to surprise a lot of people. 1st round pick Amobi Okoye is extremely quick at the point of attack , has a relentless motor and will be able to help Mario Williams have a season worthy of his #1 overall selection by the Texans last year. Jason Babin is having a tremendous pre season and will certainly see a lot of playing time. The LBs are led by last year’s defensive rookie of the year DeMeco Ryans. Marlon Greenwood looks to build on an excellent 2nd half of 2006 while Shawn Barber and Danny Clark were brought in to add depth at LB. The Texans secondary has not changed from last year except for the addition of Jamar Fletcher, who will fight for the second corner spot opposite Dunta Robinson, but will most likely start the season as a nickel back. I expect a much better Texan team this year and will not be surprised with a 9 win season.

Indianapolis Colts: Pro Bowl LT Tarik Glenn has retired and finding an equal replacement is not going to happen. Second round pick Tony Ugoh will start at Lt and will learn on the job as the season progresses. The rest of a top tier O-LINE stays the same, led by TMQ MVP, C Jeff Saturday. We all know about the Manning to Harrison/Wayne and new guy Anthony Gonzalez air attack, so I will delve a bit into Joseph Addai. The big question with any newly minted full time back is endurance over the 16 to 21 game schedule. Addai is very gifted runner and pass catcher, but without a proven backup, the Colts absolutely need Addai to stay healthy and be effective the whole season. The Colts will win the division with or without Addai, but come playoff time, a running game is crucial to winning. No way do the Colts win the Super Bowl last year without the ground game provided by Addai and the departed Rhodes. There is concern on the defensive side of the ball. The losses of CBs Jason David and Nick Harper, S Mike Doss, along with nagging injuries to S Bob Sanders, will have the Colts thin in the secondary. Underappreciated LB Cato June walked to Tampa Bay and DT Monte Reagor left for Philly. Dungy is going to have a tough time finding adequate replacements for all the lost personal. If the defense can gel and form a cohesive unit like the past few years, of course the Colts have a shot at the Super Bowl given their ability to score. However, a divisional round playoff loss to a more balanced team looms if the D can not compliment a standout offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars: I have rooted for the Jags a while now and have year after year tried convincing my friends of their impending Super Bowl entry. However, I just get the feeling it will never happen. My thoughts drift to the Seahawks of the 80’s when I would hear the hype as to why this would be their year, look at them, and then just think, naaa. Well, that is how I feel about this team. Great defense, sure, especially against the run. An offense that can run the ball, but there is something missing. Is it the coach, the QB, I really do not know. I’m just not feeling them this year.

Tennessee Titans: LenDale White should be given the starting job ahead of Chris Brown and rookie Chris Henry. The bigger concern is who will catch Vince Young passes this year. Brandon Jones was the penciled in #1 pre-season, has some chemistry with Young, but is unproven and injuries have hampered him during his short career. Eric Moulds may be the #2 receiver opening weekend, but his best years are way behind him. The O-line returns all five starters. They look to build on an excellent 2nd half last year and should be the strength of the offense this year. Kieth Bullock leads an improving defensive unit that can keep the Titans in a playoff push this year. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, a relentless pass rusher and DT Albert Haynesworth set the tone on the D-Line. The loss of their best cover corner, Pacman Jones, to suspension was off set nicely by the addition of Nick Harper. Harper will be asked to switch from a Cover 2 defense to more traditional man to man sets. The other CB spot will be contested between Reynaldo Hill and rookie 1st round pick Michael Griffin. Grtiffen was a FS at Texas but the Texans may move him to corner. Jeff Fisher is an excellent head coach and will get the most from his team.

Predictions: Barring injury to multiple players, the Colts will win the division. The fight for second will be an eye-opener because I do not think Jacksonville will be in the mix. Houston and Tennessee are ready to make strides this year.

1) Colts 2) Texans 3) Titans 4) Jaguars

AFC North Preview

2007-08-28T16:10:00.000-07:00

Baltimore Ravens: Offensively, the big news is the arrival of Willis McGahee from Buffalo. Everyone thinks he will be the savior of the offense. I think he makes them a bit better than Jamal Lewis. In Buffalo, he averaged 4, 3.8, and 3.8 yards a carry for the past three years and his two biggest games last year were against the Jets. I agree with most people in thinking that with the arguably better O-Line in Baltimore will help Mcgahee’s numbers, but I do not see him getting to a 100 yard a game average. McNair holds this offense in his hands. He needs to find a way to make an average receiving corp better this year. Derrick Mason is reliable, and Todd Heap is an All Pro. The both of them will be constant targets for McNair. Two questions are, who is the downfield threat and can the O-Line get better from last year so to allow McGahee lanes to run? Demitrius Williams must become the deep threat. As for the offensive line, I think they will be shaky this year. Hopefully they can gel as the season progresses. Defense will once again be the reason why the Ravens win. Depth and talent throughout the defense, barring injury, the Ravens will rank in the top five in total defense this year.

Cincinnati Bengals: Levi Jones (LT) and Willie Anderson (RT) anchor a very good Offensive Line that got better as the season wore on last year. Cincinnati lost G Eric Steinbeck to Cleveland, but have faith in two young players, Andrew Whitworth and Stacy Andrews to pick up the slack. The O-Line will succeed in giving Rudi Johnson more lanes to run and improve on his 3.8 yards per carry last year. Carson Palmer leads a very potent air attack. Chad Johnson and T.J Houshmandzadeh are torture for any defense to contain. The question here is who will play the slot and will they get any production from their tight end? Reggie Kelly is the veteran ,incumbent TE and will look to make a bigger contribution than his 21 catches in ’06. Last season, the defense ranked 30th overall, giving up 238 yards a game through the air. The D-line is held together by defensive ends Robert Geathers and Justin Smith. The Bengals need better production from their aging and underproductive DTs. Second year player Domata Peko needs to make an impact. To help the linebackers, Cincinnati signed Edgerton Hartwell. He will play alongside an underrated and year-after- year improving Landon Johnson. The Bengals used their first round pick on a CB for a second strait year (Johnathan Joseph in 2006) by selecting Leon Hall out of Michigan. This is an improving defensive unit that will help Cincinnati win the division this year.

Cleveland Browns: Brady Quinn will be starting by week 3. He has the talent and from pre-season work, looks to have the poise. A talented Braylon Edwards needs to improve his mental approach and Kellen Winslow can be an All Pro at TE. Where the Browns progressed most was in addressing the offensive line. The addition of LG Eric Steinbach (7 yrs, 49 mill) and drafting of LT Joe Thomas with the third overall pick will give the Browns needed stability (assuming the rookie Thomas adapts well) on the left side. Veteran Hank Fraley will start the season at C, but let’s hope LeCharles Bentley comes back this season after serious complications after knee surgery last season. The right side has questions at guard but if RT Ryan Tucker can put his personal problems in the past, he can help this unit become a second tier type of offensive line. Never a juke and burn type of back, the O-line play will directly impact the year Jamal Lewis has. He needs a hole to get through and then get 4-5 yards a carry. Although he will not duplicate his 2003 totals, I can see him reaching 1200 yards this year. The Browns used 4 of their 7 draft picks on the defensive side, 2 on defensive ends and two in the secondary. The D-line is old and unreliable and the secondary is a work in progress. Crennel needs to scheme so his very good linebackers can make plays. Kameron Wimbly is coming off an impressive rookie season, Andra Davis is reliable, Willie McGinest is old now, but can still make plays. The Browns could have a gem in LB Leon Williams. He seems to be in on every tackle and should see more snaps this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger should have been no where near a football field last year and it showed. After a head injury of the nature he suffered, it was ill advised for him to take hits to the head as is administered every week in the NFL. This is a win now league and teams suck out as much juice from the players until they are no longer useful. The long term effects will be seen in his play this year. The Steelers can not compete without a 100% Ben Roethlisberger and he will get hurt again this year because of his head trauma a year ago. A saving grace for Ben may be in a changing, yet still more than adequate O-line to protect him and open up holes for Willlie Parker. Parker should have another1400+ yard year. Santonio Holmes will grow better this year, provide a deep threat and allow Hines Ward to do his work underneath as a premium possession receiver. Heath Miller is a better than average TE and 3rd round pick TE Matt Spaeth will come in on single back and big sets. Troy Polamalu is a very reckless, but extremely productive leader of the defense. The DB’s are young but should mature as the season goes on. Casey Hampton leads the D-Line and is a perennial All-Pro. The linebackers, always strong on the Steelers may be slipping in stature. Joey Porter left for Miami, and although still effective, James Farrior is getting older and slower. The Steelers drafted LBs with their first two picks in this years draft. Lawerence Timmons (1st round) and LaMarr Woodley (2nd round, also plays DE) will help give depth at LB. It will be interesting to see how 1st year head coach Mike Tomlin handles his first year as a head coach. His demeanor is calm and I like what I see so far, but when the real games begin, sprinkle in some adversity when the pressure is on to win in a football crazy Pittsburgh, things can turn ugly quickly.

Predictions:

1) Bengals 2) Ravens 3) Browns 4) Steelers

AFC East Preview

2007-08-24T15:59:00.000-07:00

Buffalo Bills: Offensively very young. JP Losman had a decent second half and should grow this year. He has come out publicly and stated that he will have a good year, but what QB in the NFL would say the opposite. The offensive line was a major concern last year and was addressed with the additions of Derrick Dockery, Langston Walker and Jason Whittle. Protecting Losman will let him hit some very talented, but very young wide outs in Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish. Peerless Price will probably start the season as the #2 option. He needs to refocus himself and get back to his 2002 form if that is possible. He caught 94 passes for over 1200 yards but that was with Eric Moulds getting double teamed on the other side of him. 1st round draft choice Marshawn Lynch will be the clear cut starter by week 4 replacing a departed Willis McGahee and should see some running lanes behind the new O-Line. A fast but inexperienced defensive corp will have an up and down season. The losses of Tikeo Spikes and Nate Clements will hurt but 2nd round pick Paul Posluszny, DE Aaron Schobel and an underrated CB Terrence McGee, should pick up the slack and need to have excellent years to help the Bills win games.

Miami Dolphins: Cam Cameron has a tough job. The Offensive line is an absolute mess. No significant upgrade at any O-line position will make it difficult to find a statuesque Trent Green any time to throw. Ronnie Brown is a gifted runner. Averaging 4.2 yards a carry, he did most of the work after getting hit. Trent Green needs to get a talented and physically awesome Chris Chambers the ball a lot more than the 59 catches he had last year. Miami fans will be clamoring for Ted Ginn Jr. to do more than return kicks and punts. Most fans feel that Brady Quinn would have been the best choice and now hope that the Dolphin brain-trust knows more than they do. The loss of McMichael will not hurt too much since he was used mostly as a blocking lineman last season. Cory Schlesinger will add excellent blocking from the FB position. Defensively, not much has changed, except that they have all gotten one year older. If that does not translate into one step slower, then the Dolphins have a chance to win 6 games this year. Joey Porter is a very good addition and will cause havoc if Dom Capers can use him the right way.

New England Patriots: Tom Brady is always the main attraction. Most people are thinking that the additions of Moss, Stallworth and Wes Welker will be beneficial. I disagree. New England, under Belichick, has always been a team first organization. Randy Moss has stated in past interviews that he plays only when he feels like. Will the Patriots be able to motivate Moss? What happens the first or second time only two or three balls are thrown his way in a game? I can not see Moss being happy in New England for very long. Dante Stallworth is very talented, exceptionally fast and will be a deep threat for Brady. However, with a quality QB in McNabb, and then Garcia when McNabb injured his knee last year, he had 38 catches for 725 yards in 12 games. He is not a possecion receiver and his route running is suspect. The Patriots gave Stallworth about 3.5 million in guaranteed money because they are aware of his injury history as well. Wes Welker needs to prove himself on a team that has pressure to win. He may be the possession receiver that the Patriots expect, or a one year wonder. I have not seen enough of him to say he will be a bust or not. It will be interesting to see if Laurence Maroney can be an everydown back. He was impressive last season, but that was in a two running back rotation with Cory Dillon. Look for an experienced back up in Sammy Morris to take 15-20% of the carries this year. The defense is strong up front and in the linebacker corp, and then they get Adalius Thomas. One knock is at cornerback. The lack of depth will try to be masked by schemes Belichick creates, but good offenses will be able to throw against the Pats.

New York Jets: Mangini has the Jets playing inspired, team oriented, goal-oriented football. A major distraction is the Pete Kendall situation. Veteran of the line, he could have been mentor for the young, but potentially best in the league O-line. Now that he is gone to Washington, who will play gaurd. LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson and C Nick Mangold are going to be special. The line needs to give Thomas Jones and Leon Washington room to run, work the clock a bit and help the defense not be on the field as much as they were last year. An excellent acquisition, Thomas Jones will show work ethic and professionalism needed in every clubhouse. The line will need to give injury prone Pennington time to get the ball to a talented trio of receivers in Laveranues coles, Jerricho Cotchery and Justin McCareins. Defensively the Jets need to improve their rush defense. The group wore out towards the end of the season last year, in part to being on the field too long most games. Shaun Ellis is an All-Pro at End and Von Oelhoffen is an underrated player on the D-line. Veterans Kenyon Coleman and David Bowens give depth. ILB Vilma will be an All-pro this season and 2nd round pick David Harris will fit in the 3-4 set the Jets run. 1st round pick Darrelle Revis compliments a secondary that will be better this year anchored by opportunistic safeties Kerry Rhodes and Erik Coleman.

Predictions: The Pats will lose some games they are not accustomed to losing and the young,talented and motivated Jets will win the division. I figure New England getting the wild card. Most pundits will have the Pats and Jets finishing 1-2 in the division, but I am probably in the minority in terms of who finishes 1 and who finishes 2.

1) Jets 2) Patriots 3) Bills 4) Dolphins

NFL Preview

2007-08-24T15:55:00.000-07:00

In the next week or so leading up to opening kickoff, I will give my take on each division in the NFL, give a prediction on who will win the divisions and after that, give my Super Bowl picks. Enjoy. I will start off with the AFC East.

A look at my predicted top 6

2007-08-17T20:57:00.000-07:00

6- Newcastle - Love the Viduka pick up. A very consistent scorer who moves from Middlesbrough to a better team at Newcastle. The fitness of Owen is always a question. Anything he can give is a plus, and talent never goes away. I wish him luck in getting back to his former level of play. A very capable scorer in Martins will be asked to pick up the scoring if Owen misses extended time. The midfield is a held strong by Duff, Solano, Barton and veteran Emre. Led by GK Shay Given, the defense is what will propel Newcastle to European football next season. Cacapa, Carr, Rampage, Taylor, Babayano and Geremi form an experienced and strong back line.

5- Arsenal - After the losses of Baptista, Henry, Ljungberg, Muamba and Reyes, the question of depth and experience will follow Arsenal throughout the year. Who is going to score? Will DaSilva, the Cro-zilian keep up his scoring touch displayed At Dinamo Zagreb and Euro 2008 qualifying for Croatia. Adebayor is growing up and should contribute, but how about Walcott. Immense talent but yet unproven at this level. Rosicky and Hleb need to solidify the midfield, become leaders and take the pressure of Fabregas. The Spaniard is blossoming into a World XI type of player and will need to score consistently this season for the Gunners to make a run for Champion’s league position next year. The defense is not a question. Gk Lehman has the luxury of having veterans Eboue, Toure, Senderos and Gallas in front of him. As always, Wenger will find a way to win, just how much will the long season take a toll on his youth.

4- Chelsea- This is the year they falter, if one finds a fourth place finish in the EPL faltering; however given Mourinho’s incredible success and amount of money Abramovic has spent, two pieces of silverware are mandatory. They should advance to the final eight of the Champion’s league, but I feel that they will drop some points to lesser quality teams this season. The African Nation’s Cup is a potentially tough stretch. Losing their best two players in Drogba and Essien, along with Kalou and Mikel for about 3 weeks, a minimum of 3 games. The tournament final is on February 10th. Chelsea is home for Liverpool on the February 9th. The defense is held together by the best GK, central defense in the EPL with Peter Chech, John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho. The addition of Ben Haim adds depth. I am not impressed with Lampard. He is on the descent of a notable career, but more concerning is that he tends to disappear in the big games. Malouda adds toughness that was lacking in Robben. Joe Cole needs to become a better leader and better decision maker on the pitch. Drogba is world class and Sheva needs to show up this year.

3- Tottenham- All out offense is what I want to see. How about a 4-1-2-3 formation? They certainly have the pieces in Berbatov, Jenas, keane, Defoe and Bent. The questions for Spurs success is how well they can defend, and if their defense can stay healthy. King is the best defender, he starts the season less than 100% fit. Aside from him, Spurs lack class in the back line. Paul Robinson needs to bounce back from a subpar campaign last season. One also needs to ask if Jol continues to have respect from his players. Another slow start and the masses will be wanting his head. Winning cures all ills and I feel that Tottenham will find enough defense to go with what is on paper a quality attack.

2- Manchester United - Have depth and class throughout the squad. Vidic is overrated but his shortcomings are masked by the defenders by his side. Ronaldo is the fastest man on the planet with a ball at his feet. It would be interesting to see how he would do behind the strikers in a more central midfield role. Scholes, Giggs , Carrick and Hargreaves are all world class players in the mid field. Tevez only makes Rooney better and they should feed off each other when Rooney returns in a few months. Only multiple injuries will keep Man U from a semi final berth in the Champions league and a top 2 finish in the EPL.

1- Liverpool- My money is on Liverpool winning the Champion’s league and EPL. Gerrard in the best English International player and a true leader who shows up every game ready to win with supreme effort and class. Torres and Kuyt form an impressive striker tandem. Voronin adds to an already powerful midfield. Benayoun was a fabulous pick up. He is the leader of the Israel National team , plays any position and his value will be apparent as the year progresses. Incredible depth and talent at every position.

English Premier League Top Six Prediction

2007-08-10T16:37:00.000-07:00

Here is the order of finish to this year's English Premier League. A description of why I have these teams in this order will be posted in a few days. I wanted to get the picks on my blog before the start of the season tomorrow.

1- Liverpool
2- Manchester United
3- Tottenham
4- Chelsea
5- Arsenal
6- Newcastle

FA Community Shield Recap

2007-08-09T15:48:00.000-07:00

I tracked this game and will give you my thoughts. The number you see is the minute that the play occurred .

1- Malouda makes a nice hard tackle on Rooney. Aside from Carvalho, Terry and Essien, Chelsea needs some toughness to go with all their talent. Mouluda can hopefully do this for them.
6- Ronaldo tracking back deep into the defensive zone to defend Ashly Cole. Let’s see how long this will last. Not that Ronaldo can’t play defense, but do you really want him running around too much. It’s a long season and you do not want him wearing out like he did at the end of last year’s campaign.
10- The pace of Ronaldo is extreme. How many in the world are as fast as him with the ball at his feet. I would like to see him and Giggs switch positions in the 4-4-1-1 formation. Let Ronaldo play right behind Rooney and have Giggs stay on the outside. That’s assuming Tevez is not in the lineup. With Tevez in there, a standard 4-4-2 with Ronaldo on the right side is best.
30- Great pass from Rooney on the top left of the penalty box to a streaking Ronaldo. These two are a fantastic duo whose skills complement each other tremendously. Rooney a pittbull, Ronaldo being a greyhound.
35- Great goal. Class at every level. Beautifull pass from Ronaldo to Evra, good look from Evra to Giggs, and then a cool, calm finish from Giggs. Nearly two decades with United and Giggs remains vital to their success this season.
45- Malouda showing a strength and determination that Robben has continually failed to show with Chelsea. Ferdinand getting beat again in a big spot.
61- Ronaldo getting a Michael Jordan type call on Joe Cole. Why does Ronaldo always seem to whine after any foul, even in this case when he is getting the call? It’s a foul, part of the game.
70- Nani enters the game and his first two touches are awfull. On his second touch, with four Chelsea players around him, he simply pushes the ball forward a few yards into the middle of the four Chelsea players. He putts his head down and on replay, seems to say something to himself. Whatever he said worked because he played a quality 20 minutes the rest of the way. Did some damage on the left wing.
78- Sidwell comes in for Chelsea. Hope he gets some playing time for Chelsea this year.
84- Ronaldo gets a bit greedy coming down the left side. Seemed that he may have passed it off instead of going to goal on his own. Numbers were in United’s favor.

Great game to start the season off.

Football season is here!!

2007-08-07T15:30:00.000-07:00

Hello all. This site will be dedicated to all things relating to the game of football. The world game known to Americans as soccer, and the NFL, American football to the rest of the world. I implore those that dismiss either sport as foolish or boring to give it a chance. They are both wonderful sports, requiring extreme athleticism, courage, dedication and passion. Enjoy, and I look forward to your comments.