NFL Week 3 Picks

Home Team are in CAPS. Spreads are from the Friday New York Post.

Last Week 9 -7 -0
Season 15- 15- 2

JETS (-3) Dolphins: The Jets are the better team and will get their first victory. Miami’s defense is decent but no where near the level they were playing at the past few years. Mangini will get Thomas Jones the ball early and use his effectiveness for play action purposes. Remember that the Jets have faced two of the best defenses in the league the first two weeks and were dropped passes away from sending the Baltimore game into overtime. Miami is having offensive line issues that will help the Jet defense get on track. Miami will be in the running for first overall pick in next season’s draft and this game will help them achieve that prize.
Pick: Jets (-3)


REDSKINS (-3.5) Giants: An injured triceps will force G Randy Thomas to miss most if not all of the season. He is a very effective lineman, but the Skins should not be too concerned. Rather than filling in his spot with a young player, veteran Jason Fabini will take over at RG. The fall off will be minimal and the Redskins should be able to move the ball against a Giant defense that has not showed up yet this season. Even if the Giant’s defensive strength, the defensive line, comes to play, QB Jason Cambell has the mobility to escape the pocket and make some plays on the run against a very weak Giant secondary. Giant QB Eli Manning has played very well in the first two games, has the weapons to move the ball, and combined with an offensive line that is playing well, should score a few touchdowns. The thing that keeps popping in my head is the abysmal Giant defense and until they fix the problem, cannot be counted on to win games, or in my case, cover the spread.
Pick: Redskins (- 3.5)


Cols (-6) TEXANS: A big test for Houston’s line play. Without playmaker and all world WR Andre Johnson, the Texans need to 1) run the ball to control clock and 2) get pressure on Manning. The Texan O-line is playing well this year and should get some running lanes for Green and if that goes well, some time for Schaub to throw. The thing is though, who will Schuab throw to? The Texans do have two pass catching TE in Owen Daniels and Jeb Putzier who will get the majority of looks. Pre- season rookie standout Jacoby Jones will get his chance to shine in Johnson’s absence and is a deep threat assuming the Texans can establish a running game. The Texan defensive line is playing well with the LBs and secondary doing a decent job. We all know about the Colt offensive prowess so I will not say much about them here except that playing on the turf in Houston is similar to their home turf, so their team speed and timing rhythm in their passing game will be in sync. I documented in my AFC South Preview that a 9 win season for Houston was realistic this year. With a healthy Andre Johnson this game would be a no brainer for me to pick Houston, but that is not the case this week.
Pick: Colts (-6)

Chargers (-5) PACKERS: Did Favre convince anyone that he is still the passer he was a few years back due to his domination of the Giants? He is not what he once was and there are still no playmakers on the outside for him to get the ball to. The chargers have a very good defense that will get to Favre and force him into some turnovers. Offensively the Chargers are ready to break out. Regardless of the Packer strong defense and this being a road tilt, I see the Chargers putting up 30+ points this week simply because they are too talented on the offensive line, QB, RB and TE. Facing the Bears and then a motivated Patriot team is not a real indicator to how good your offense is, especially this early in the season. LT will shine this week as will the entire Charger team against an inferior Packer squad that will lay it’s chances on their defense.
Pick: Chargers (-5)


CHIEFS (-3) Vikings: In what will surely be the 1pm -game-not-shown-if-your-bar-does-not-have-enough-TVs, the Vikings will get the ball to Peterson and then rely on a good defense to bottle up Herm Edwards’ pre forward pass offensive game plan. I will be picking against the Chiefs all season.
Pick: Vikings (+3)

EAGLES (-6) Lions: This is a smelly spread. I guess the odds-makers figure that the Lions really have not beaten anyone yet and the Eagles gave away both games. A big question here is will the Eagle secondary be able to go up against the Lions’ receiving corp of Roy Williams, Mike Furry and Calvin Johnson? They should be able to limit the big plays and make enough stops to help McNabb get on track. The Eagle receivers need to get open, especially Kevin Curtis. He looked really good in pre-season 1st team reps but has yet to show that form in the first 2 games of the season. Westbrook should have a nice day. Bottom line here is that the Eagles are a better team and need to pick up the win. I see a back door cover by the Eagles here on a late FG to make the final score
27-20.
Pick: EAGLES (-6)


PATRIOTS (-16.5) Bills: Buffalo has shown very little offensively the first two weeks and traveling to New England will not help. The Pats are playing superior football right now and even though the Bills have some defensive playmakers, Brady and company are on a different level and should move the ball this week. I would normally see a spread this high and automatically go with the dog, but a 40-17 final is a realistic outcome.
Pick: PATS (-16.5)

STEELERS (-9) 49ers: Pitt has yet to be tested this season and the niners are coming off two close, hard earned victories so they are more battle tested than Pitt. The loss of OLB Manny Lawson is a tough blow to the niner defense because of his tremendous speed on the outside. However, the 49ers still have an aggressive defense with good team speed and a defensive front that is playing well (6 sacks last week), so they will get pressure on Rothlisberger, forcing him to make quicker reads than he has been forced to make so far this season. Frank Gore is running very strong, has been the 49er offense thus far and should be able to find some room behind an offensive line that is playing well. For San Fran to win this game, Alex Smith has to play better than he has shown. Off season WR acquisition Darrell Jackson and physically intimidating TE Vernon Davis need to be thrown to more. I can’t say that I see the 49ers winning this game, but 9 points is a lot.
Pick: 49ers (+9)

RAVENS (-8) Cardinals: A big test for Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt to keep Leinart calm. Matt Leinart has shown flashes of talent this season but has been very inconsistent. Zona will try to establish Edge but the crux of potential victory will fall on Leinart’s shoulders. Baltimore still boasts a top notch defense and will be the reason they win this game. I just don’t see them dominating on the offensive end against the Cards. Arizona is playing with a lot of confidence coming off of their win against Seattle last week and should be able to carry that momentum to this week keeping the score close.
Pick: Zona (+8)

BUCS (-3.5) Rams: I documented that the Bucs will be a playoff team this year so why not pick them at home against a reeling St. Louis team. Aside from Steven Jackson, the offense looked old and slow the first two weeks and the defense looked less than ordinary. Tampa is feeling good about themselves and Cadillac will have a big game this week. He plays with a recklessness that gets him hurt sometimes, but he is a big time RB that is looking to make amends on an off year last year. The Tampa defense has looked good the first two weeks and should be able to disrupt Bulger and contain Jackson to under 100 yards because of the Rams’ offensive line issues.
Pick: BUCS (-3.5)

BRONCOS (-3) Jags: The Jags score 13 points at home against the Falcons and are only 3 point dogs in Denver? The linesmen in Vegas know a lot more than I do, but for reasons I described in my AFC South Preview, I refuse to take the Jaguars this year.
Pick: BRONCOS (-3)

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) Bengals: The Bengal defense was beaten down last week, while I’m not going to say it was a total fluke, I will say that they are better than their showing against Cleveland. They do have talent at every level on defense in DE Justin Smith, LB Landon Johnson and CB Deltha O’Neal so the playmakers are there. The defensive unit need not be Chicagoesque for the Bengals to win, just hold the opponents under 27 and the Bengals can win any week because of their offense. I like the hook in this game.
Pick: Bengals (+3.5)

RAIDERS (3) Browns: The Raider defense is solid and could control the game, but if last week’s exceptional offensive line play by the Browns becomes the norm rather than the exception, the Browns have the talent to put up some points. I see the Browns playing well again and winning this game outright.
Pick: Browns (+3)

Panthers (-3.5) FALCONS: Does anyone really care about either of these two teams? The Falcons do not have much on offense and really need to get the ball more into Jerious Norewood’s hands. Why have Warrick Dunn be your starter when you know he is almost through with his career? See what you have in Norewood by making him the full time starter so you can go into the draft next year with a clear idea of the RB situation. It will be fun to watch a top 5 cover corner in DeAngelo Hall go up against a top 5 receiver in Steve Smith. The Panthers are the more talented team and should win this game.
Pick: Panthers (-3.5)

BEARS (-3) Cowboys: The cowboys moved offensively the first two weeks on the strength of their talented offense and maybe more influential, the lack of a good defense across from them. The Bears pose a much stronger test to Romo et. all and will be able to disrupt the Cowboy attack. The question with the Bears will remain until further notice “Can they score?”. I want to see Benson play with confidence, run hard at the Cowboy line so to bring Roy Williams closer to the box to open up play action. I am taking the Bears here but this is a very difficult game to analyze and I would not lay any cheddar on this one.
Pick: BEARS (-3)

SAINTS (-4) Titans: The Titans are playing with confidence against a desperate and very talented Super Bowl pick in New Orleans. The Saints are much more talented than they have shown the first two weeks, but I have never looked at them as being a Super Bowl entrant this season. I like their offense but their defense is a bit shaky and was exposed in weeks 1 and 2. The Titans go into every game with an FU attitude which resonates directly from the coach. Vince Young has leadership quality of impeccable worth on this young offense. They need to get him a reliable target soon. I see the Titans running the ball a whole lot in this game and they should keep it close until the end with a stingy defense. I hope Young has the ball in his hands with a few minutes to go, down by a couple of points.
Pick: Titans (-4)