NFL Week 17

Last Week 6 – 9 – 0
Season 114 – 116 – 9

Due to the nature of the NFL in it’s final week, I will not be making picks against the spread. Many teams will undoubtedly play their 2nd and even 3rd string personnel this week and there is no way for me to know who is playing or how long they will play. Here are some thought going into the final week of the NFL regular season.

 The Giants need to look out for #1 and not worry themselves with beating the Patriots. Fifteen other weeks this year, teams have failed in beating the Pats and there is no good reason I have heard yet to warrant the Giants going full boar in hopes of derailing New England’s perfect season. With an undefeated regular season, the Pats must still win what will be two tough AFC playoff games and then the Super Bowl, assuming they make it that far. The Giants owe nothing to nobody but themselves and their playoff health. The thought of losing for the playoffs an injury prone Jacobs, a key O-line starter or a top defensive player is enough to convince me that the Giants should go with their second unit for most of the game and get ready for an underrated Buccaneer team next week. Furthermore, who really thinks the Giants will beat the Patriots with a full lineup anyway.

 I would like to see the Jaguars play their first string for the first half in their game against Houston. I would sit Fred Taylor for the game because of his past muscle ailments. The Jaguars are in a grove, showing great offensive rhythm that they will need next week in the Wild Card round. Houston’s tough and fast defense will be a great warm-up for next week against their probable opponent, the Steelers.

 Of the three teams, Washington, Minnesota and N.O., vying for the final NFC playoff spot, N.O would be the most entertaining and I will be rooting for them to make it in after starting 0-4.

 Tony Dungy has a history of resting his starters when he knows his playoff fate. He also has learned that too much time away from game action can cause rust and lack of offensive rhythm. Do not be surprised if he keeps Manning and the 1st unit in for the first half with the exception of Addai sitting out the entire game. There is also motivation to keep a divisional opponent out of the playoffs, which will happen if Cleveland beats S.F. and the Titans lose to the Colts.

 I am rooting for the Titans to make it over the Browns based on this: Romeo Crennel looks scared when the game is tight. Staying home last weekend, I got to watch Cleveland lose to Cincinnati and every time the camera panned over to Crennel, he looked nervous, yet expressionless. I do not see this guy having his team prepared for a road playoff game. Tennessee’s Fischer is a proven winner, a leader who has made his teams better with his coaching and will have his team ready to go next week if they make it there.

 Herm Edwards is back at the Meadowlands. Big deal.

 This could be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and I hope it is. This man gets no respect for doing so much in his career with so little to work with. Name me another QB who has been better than McNabb at bringing out the best in mediocre WRs. It is not a coincidence the year management gave him a competent WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. I can’t wait for Philly fans to clamor for a new QB for the next 5 years as their team disintegrates. Hopefully I am wrong and Kolb turns into a stud QB, but a talent like Mcnabb’s only comes around once in a while and Philly never game him the recognition he deserves.

NFL Week 16 Picks

Last Week 9 – 7 – 0
Season 108 – 107 – 9

Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Post. HOME Team in CAPS.

Pittsburgh (-7) ST. LOUIS:
Pick: Steelers (-7)

Dallas (-13) CAROLINA:
Pick: Dallas (-13)

Cleveland (-2.5) CINNCINNATTI: This is a big game for Romeo Crennel. A lot of people wonder how good of a head coach he is and this is a game that the Browns must be well prepared for. Crennel is regarded as a defensive minded coach. Cincinnati, with their lousy record and bad year, still have a very capable offense and would love to keep an in-state division rival out of the playoffs. Crennel has to get the right game plan established to limit the Bengal playmakers and put his defensive players in the right positions to make plays. Cleveland will move the ball behind a determined and angry Jemal Lewis.
Pick: Cleveland (-2.5)

Green Bay (-8.5) CHICAGO: A lot of pride still left on the Chicago defensive side of the ball. However, injuries have made the talent level go down from elite to average. Ryan Grant is being a bully at running back, giving the Packers much needed balance heading into the playoffs. As long as Favre keeps with what has worked this season, that being a short, controlled passing attack, only throwing deep when it is there, the Pack should be able to move the ball. Green Bay is playing well on defense, but Al Harris does not deserve a Pro Bowl spot at CB. Antrell Rolle of Arizona has had a tremendous year and deserved a roster spot over Al Harris. Chicago is a horrible offensive football team right now. Spread seems about 2 points too high considering they are in Chicago, but Green Bay is still gunning for home field throughout the playoffs and seem well prepared every week.
Pick: Green Bay (-8.5)

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Houston: My heart is telling me Houston, but my mind is telling me Indi. I am going with Houston because this is their Super Bowl and they are playing well on both sides of the ball. Dungy is known to take the foot off the gas late in the season and the slowing down may start in the 2nd half of this game.
Pick: Houston (+7)

LIONS (-4.5) Chiefs: No gambler should come any where near this game. Two teams that are very inconsistent, with questionable coaching and both teams have probably thrown in the towel on the season. Detroit has more talent on offense and they are at home so I’ll take them, I guess.
Pick: Detroit (-4.5)

Giants (-2.5) BILLS: The Giant play- calling last week caused me to yell at the TV on a far too consistent basis. Example, it’s 22- 10, Giants have the ball at the Skins 20 yard line, early in the 4th Q. Jacobs has over 100 yards and the offensive line is moving the Skins d-line. Incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG were the next 4 plays. Awful. Manning put the ball in the air 51 times on a day that begged for Jacobs to run 35 times. Jacobs had 25 carries for 130 yards and should have had more. Will the Giants have the same approach this week in Buffalo? I don’t know and I do not care. Buffalo has been a tough team to beat the entire year and Dick Juron seems to have the players and the game plan ready every week, something that can not be said for the Giants and their coaching staff. Add in no Shockey and a hobbled Burress, the Giants are in trouble. Unless they give the ball to Jacobs a lot more than they put the ball in the air, the Giant playoff hopes will be in the balance next week against the Pats.
Pick: Bills (+2.5)

TITANS (-8.5) Jets: Young played a decent game last week, not doing anything spectacular, but more importantly, not doing anything to lose the game. The game plan for Tennessee will revolve around a ball control ground game. It will probably work, but watch how well MLB David Harris plays this game. The rookie out of Michigan is having a fine year and always seems to be in on the tackle. The Jets are not as bad as their record and I do not think they should be a 8.5 point underdog. However, there seems to be a play or two that change momentum in every game, and where those swings were going the Jet way last year, they seem to be going against them this year. The Titans are at home and still looking for a playoff birth.
Pick: Titans (-8.5)

PATRIOTS (-22) Dolphins: Tuna is coming to Miami!! Let’s see how long he hangs out. Bill Parcells loves leaving organizations before his contract is expired, but somehow gets a pass every time he does. From Wikipedia, “In 1992, Parcells made a handshake agreement to become head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the last minute, Parcells opted not to take the job. Parcells did not feel the situation was right for him at that time. Tampa Bay owner Hugh Culverhouse said, "I feel like I've been jilted at the altar." Parcells left the Patriots after disagreements with owner Robert Kraft; Parcells felt he did not have enough input into player personnel decisions.” He left the Cowboys after a good year in 2007 and could have been guiding them now. No one is sure why he did not come back with the Cowboys but it was probably money. Look, I think he is a good coach, however, he now has control of an entire organization regarding personnel and coaching hires, but has little experience with these responsibilities. Given his age and past record of leaving teams when things are not totally going his way, it will be interesting to see how long he stays.
Pick: Patriots (-22)

JAGUARS (-13) Raiders: I am not sure who replaces Willie Parker in the Pro Bowl, but it better be Fred Taylor. The jaguars are playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball and David Gerrard is having a fantastic season. He made one bad pass last week against the Steelers, a pick off early in the 4th Q. He has a strong, accurate arm, is poised in the pocket, and is the QB Jacksonville has been looking for for four years. Del Rio has the Jags believing they are an elite team and Jacksonville will continue to play that way against an inferior team this week.
Pick: Jags (-13)

SAINTS (-3) Eagles: I remember watching Marques Colston last season thinking, “he’s fast and has decent hands, but is he tough, will he make the catch over the middle as he is getting hit?” Colston has continuously made the tough catches this season and is blossoming into an elite WR. Drew Breese is making the other receivers around Colston into better targets than they really are, the same way Donovan McNabb made all the garbage Philly receivers better early in his career. New Orleans is lacking on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is clicking with a determined Aaron Stecker giving NO a between the tackle, north-south runner. New Orleans is at home and still looking at a playoff spot if things fall the right way.
Pick: NO (-3)

VIKINGS (-6.5) Redskins: Still don’t understand why Peterson is playing. He tears a ligament in his knee and it is deemed “minor”? The doctors know a lot more than I do, but I hope they are not playing around this young man’s future.
Pick: Vikings (-6.5)

CARDINALS (-10) Falcons: I officially announce my candidacy for the vacant Atlanta Falcon head coaching position. I’ll take the job at $150,000 a year for 5 years and I promise not to quit. When is the last time Arizona covered a 10 point spread as a favorite? When was the last time they were a 10 point favorite?
Pick: Falcons (+10)

SEAHAWKS (-11) Ravens: Shawn Alexander looks scared to get hit. All season he has looked pitiful and should not be a first string RB for this or any other team. Mourice Morris has shown toughness all season and deserves first team reps. Brian Billick officially lost his scrotum last weekend when he kicked the FG at the end of regulation instead of going for the TD from 2 feet out. I hope Troy Smith starts this game for Baltimore, he deserves the nod over a season long ineffective Kyle Boller.
Pick: Seahawks (-11)

Buccaneers (-5.5) 49RS: The Bucs are a division winner and need to beat up on a team looking towards next season.
Pick: Bucs (-5.5)

CHARGERS (-8.5) Broncos: I picked the Chargers as the AFC representative and I am sticking with it. If San Diego practices a run first then play-action offensive game plan, they can beat the Colts and the Patriots. Underrated DE Luis Castillo is close to being 100% and will give the Chargers defense a big boost when he gets back from an early season ankle injury.
Pick: Chargers (-8.5)

NFl Week 16 Saturday Night

Dallas (-10.5) CAROLINA: Dallas is vying for home field throughout the NFC playoffs so they must come into this game with a kill mentality. Romo had a stinker last week but his thumb injury contributed to some of his throwing problems. Romo participated fully in practice on Friday. To talk of his new girlfriend as a distraction is fodder for pundits with little to talk about. I am certain that last weekend was not the first game he had a hot girlfriend watching him play. Dallas will move the ball against Carolina. This is a must win, get playoff ready game for Dallas and have too much talent on offense for the Panthers to keep up with for 60 minutes.
Pick: Dallas (-10.5)

NFL Week 16 Thursday Night

Steelers (-7.5) RAMS: Pittsburgh needs to get their act together before the playoffs start. The offense was inconsistent and Ben Rothlisberger looked weak last week against the Jags until the 4th quarter. If not for a brutal Jaguar punt in the 2nd Q and bad play calling by Del Rio when they were up 22-7 in the 4th Q, the score would not have been as close as the final 29-22 tally. Polumalu played an incredible game last week. One play in particular stands out. Gerrard scrambled out of the pocket on 3rd down late in the 1st Q and appeared to be heading for a first down. Polumalu seemed to come from nowhere to stop Gerrard short of the 1st down with a perfect ankle tackle. The closing speed to Gerrard on the overhead replay was impressive. The Rams are not the pushovers they were from the beginning of the season so this is not an easy game to pick. Jackson has the ability to take a game over and Bulger can still get the ball to Holt and Bruce. Damn shame I can’t watch this game from the comfort of my couch.
Pick: Steelers (-7.5)

NFL Week 15 Picks

Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Last Week: 10 – 6 – 0
Season: 99 – 100 – 9

Broncos (-1) TEXANS:
Pick: Texans (+1)

Bengals (-8.5) 49ers: You figure that the Bengals should be able to move the ball on a depleted 49er defense. Does a score line of 27- 13 seem possible, I think so, but what makes me think twice about taking the Bengals is Frank Gore. Anyone who watched him tear apart the Cardinals a couple weeks back saw why this young man has such a bright future ahead of him. His power and speed is impressive and I fear that he could take this game over as he did against Arizona. Then I see the QB for the Niners is going to be Shaun Hill, a 6th year pro from Maryland who led them to the Orange Bowl and a #10 BCS ranking in 2001-2002 season. At a time in the NFL when un-drafted or under regarded QBs seem to be excelling, maybe it is Shaun Hill’s time. Why not, I’m going with the Niners. The game is on the NFL network, so unless you are already in a bar with the channel or if you have fantasy playoff implications on the game, who is going to go out of their way for a Niner- Bengal game on a Saturday night.
Pick: Niners (+8.5)

PATRIOTS (-23.5) Jets: There are 4 instances this year that I can think of off the top of my head where Mangini failed to trust his offensive line and Thomas Jones on a 4th and very short at or near mid-field. Opening game against the Pats on the very first drive of the season, week 2 against the Bills on the 1st or second Jet drive, against the Giants and last week against the Browns. There are probably more. To continuously deny faith in your line and RB leads to failure when your team is at short yard/goaline situations and a run is called for. Now look at the Pats. Time and time again this season Belichick has eschewed a punt or FG on 4th and short to go for the TD or 1st down. This instills confidence, poise and a “we will get the yardage needed” attitude that permeates through an offense and the team as a whole. Now, in regards to this game and the spread. We all know of spygate, the bad blood between the organizations and the tendency for the Pats to beat down their opponents without mercy. Funny thing is that I am taking the Jets. This is based on a forecast for miserable conditions Sunday in Gillette Stadium and I still feel that the Jets are a quality team even though their record is awful. Mangini needs to strap on a pair and coach to win, without fear of media scrutiny if he decides to go for the TD/1st down rather than kick a FG/punt.
Pick: Jets (+23.5)

GIANTS (-4.5) Redskins: At home, a playoff bound team has to beat an inferior opponent. The Giants need to come out and beat the Redskins down, not for anyone to say, “oh look, the Giants really gave it to the Skins”, but for a confidence boost to a team that has struggled at home. The Giants must also prepare for the playoffs by getting their game plan strait. Run until they can not and then play-action. The Giant offensive line is playing at a very high level and with three competent backs, a run first offense is the way to go.
Pick: Giants (-4.5)

SAINTS (-3.5) Cardinals: Interesting game. Warner back indoors on turf throwing to a merry-go-round of talented receivers, Breese playing very well going against an athletic Arizona defense and both teams still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Cool stuff. I am taking Breese and the Saints based on Aaron Stecker giving the Saints a decent running game and Breese really playing well the last few weeks. If Coach Payton calls a normal play in the 4th Q against the Bucs a few weeks back, rather than the reverse, the Saints would have playoff destiny in their own hands rather than needing a Minnesota loss or two during the final three weeks.
Pick: Saints (-3.5)

BUCS (-13.5) Falcons: When the going gets tough, the scared tuck tail and run, huh Bobby Patrino. So fake. If you were a friend of this guy, would you trust him. “I’ll pick you up at 9 AM. Serious, we’ll go golfing and then we’ll grab some lunch. Yeah, yeah, they know me there, but I’ll make reservations anyway”. You’ll be standing out on your porch at 10 AM still getting his voice mail. I hope whoever is coaching this team now gives Jerious Norewood the ball 20 times. A very talented ball player, Norewood needs to get more than the 6-8 touches a game he has been getting. They named him the starter last week, was in there for the first play of the game, and then was taken out for the next 3 series’. The Bucs are a good team with Garcia in the lineup. He is expected to start so I will take the Bucs even though this is a too high of a spread. I would have guessed 9.5.
Pick: Bucs (-13.5)

Ravens (-3.5) DOLPHINS: In the name of Dan Marino, win a game. I am certain if the Dolphins asked Marino to start the last 3 games of the season he would. Someone explain to me why Kyle Boller is starting over Troy Smith in Baltimore? Smith came in at the end of last week’s Colt debacle and I said to myself, “where has this guy been all season”.
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)

BROWNS (-5.5) Bills: Playoff feel to this game. The Bills match up well on defense with the Brown playmakers. Terrence McGee is an underrated CB and will match up with Braylon Edwards. Strong side LB Angelo Crowell will try to contain Kellen Winslow who is playing at a very high level this season. If Crowell holds him to 80 yards or less it will be a good day. If the Bills can stop Jamal Lewis to 100 yards or less, they win the game. Buffalo has a toughness about them that has fueled their winning record. They do not get fazed by the opponent and have Marshawn Lynch back to get them going on offense. Trent Edwards has played well the last couple of weeks and seems to have a good amount of poise in the pocket. Browns have yet to develop a killer instinct which almost hurt them last week against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)

Packers (-10) RAMS: The Packers are a better team but the spread seems a bit high considering the Rams are starting Bulger and are a veteran team at home, playing for pride and some kind of redemption for this awful season.
Pick: Rams (+10)

STEELERS (-3.5) Jaguars: The Steelers have not impressed me as much as their record might dictate. Not sold on the Jaguars entering the season, my mind has changed the last 5 weeks or so. Gerrard is playing at a very high level and Fred Taylor looks young running the ball. Fred Taylor the most underrated back of my generation. The Jaguars are the tougher team and have a good bit of momentum going into this game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)

Seahawks (-7.5) PANTHERS: The Panthers are a very bad team and should not pose a threat to Seattle this week. Seattle, with a pass first game plan, has started clicking on offense. They will need to run the ball better in the playoffs to advance, especially when the weather is not conducive to throwing. This is a good game get Alexander some stats and a confidence boost. Alexander looks very hesitant at the line and seems to be avoiding contact. Morris has been the better runner this season.
Pick: Seattle (-7.5)

Titans (-4) CHIEFS: If the Titans are serious about the playoffs, a win in KC has to be accomplished. The Titans are the better team with a better coach. A concern for Tennessee has to be the inconsistent play of Vince Young. He looked real good against the Texans two weeks ago, but played a poor game last week against the Chargers. He must play well the next 3 weeks for the Titans to make the playoffs. These three games will be test of Vince Young’s mettle early in his career.
Pick: Titans (-4)

Colts (-10.5) RAIDERS: Payton Manning is really starting to connect with Anthony Gonzalez , who has picked up on their complicated offense very quickly. This is a great development for the playoffs. When Marvin Harrison comes back, it will give Manning four viable options to throw to: Wayne, Harrison, Clark and Gonzalez. Indi is too much team for the Raiders to handle and this should be a walk over for the Colts. Coach Kiffen, can we watch Russel in an expanded role the last three weeks?

CHARGERS (-10) Lions: It’s really not that hard to play call for the Chargers. Run, Run, Run, Run, play-action, run, run, run, play-action, run, run, run, run, play-action. Norv, you have the best back in football with a competent back-up and a very good O-line, run the ball. I think this line is way too high, but after last week’s awful loss to the Cowboys, the Lions may be ready to give up.
Pick: Chargers (-10)

COWBOYS (-10.5) Eagles: The Cowboys have too many weapons for any defense to handle. Witten is a mismatch against the Eagle LBs and T.O. will be fired up. Jones and Barber will be able to run the ball on the Eagles. The question is will the Eagles score enough to cover? Even with Westbrook playing at an MVP level, I do not see the Eagles keeping up with the Cowboys in Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)

VIKINGS (-10) Chicago: Is this really the spread? Have the Bears fallen from grace this fast? Are the Vikings this good? The line-makers know more than me.
Pick: Vikings (-10)

NFL Week 15 Thursday Night

Denver (-1) HOUSTON: If Andre Johnson plays the seven games he missed, the Texans would have 9 wins and playoff destiny in their own hands. Denver and Houston both stand at 6-7, and the only way either will make the playoffs is to run the table and then hope that Cleveland, Tennessee and Buffalo fade down the stretch. This is a lot to ask for so it seems that both teams are playing for pride rather than a playoff push. Sage Rosenfels will start for Houston. He has looked very good in this offense when pressed into action and should be able to move the ball. Houston is the better all round football team and has played with more consistency than Denver. Add to that home field and a defense playing better by the week, the Texans should be victorious.
Pick: Houston (+1)

Liverpool vs. Marseille

Liverpool will visit Marseille this evening with the winner moving on to the knockout stage of this year's Champion's League Tournament. Team pride is at stake here, but also millions of dollars in revenue that goes with the knockout stage. Liverpool's manager Rafa Benitez rested Torres, Gerrard and Carragher this past weekend in a 3-1 loss to Reading to have them fresh for this match. "Right now, the Champions League is the most important competition for us," said Benitez. "We were really disappointed to lose the Reading game, but we're only thinking about this one and finding the right solutions."

The result in Anfield went Marseille's way when they played in October, and the French side will be ready to go, "We won't set out looking for a draw," said coach Erik Gerets. "Our preparations have been normal but, from the first second on Tuesday, the players will know they are in a special game, more intense than in the league. It's the match the fans have been waiting for and there'll be adrenalin aplenty on the pitch. We won't freeze, we'll be like lions." Marseille has played well of late, but the competition they have faced pales in comparison to the class that Liverpool will show today.

Liverpool is built for Champion's League play. As clear favorites to win the group, Liverpool played with a complacency that resulted in 2 losses from 3 games to start the group stage. In desperation mode, they have since beaten Bestikas and Porto handily and have knockout stage entry one win away. Liverpool is the better team, have much more experience in the big games, will be the aggressors and will hand Marseille a drubbing today.

NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week 5 - 11 - 0
Season 89 - 94 - 9

Washington -3
Eagles -3
Browns -3
Jaguars -10.5
Lions +10.5
Dolphins +7
Packers -10.5
Patriots -10.5
Chargers pk
Bengals -6.5
Texans +3
Cardinals +7
Vikings -7
Chiefs +6.5
Ravens +9
Falcons +4

Redskins defeat Bears

I missed the first half, and the two QB injuries that happened. I feel for both of these men and wish them the best with their knees. Jason Campbell is a tremendous talent. Watching him, you can see his poise and confidence in the pocket. He has a great arm and can run with the ball. He has made some rookie mistakes and needs to work on his accuracy, but Gibbs made a correct assessment of Campbell's talents when he moved up in the draft a few years ago to get him.

What was Lovie Smith doing kicking the FG with 7 minutes to go and down by 7 points? The FG turned a 1 TD game into ..... a 1 TD game. You are at the 4 yard line, go for the TD. If unsuccessful, you at least have the Bears pinned deep in their territory. A very bad decision. I also did not agree with the play calling on 2nd and 3rd down before the ill- advised FG. I am not a huge fan of the fade route , but if you are going to try it twice, make sure one of them heads into the direction of Bernard Berrian. Both fades were to Greg Olsen, who is bigger than the CB covering him, but will not out-jump the CB.

Week 14 Thursday Night Game

WASHINGTON (-3) Chicago: If you are betting this game, you really have a problem. How do you analyze a game between two underachieving teams, who both lost winnable games at home last week, and are now playing on short rest? I am going with the Redskins here because they are at home and I think Jason Campbell is a better QB than the Bear tandem of Grossman and Griese. The Redskins should get a running game going against the Bears and Washington has enough on defense to keep the Bear offense in check. Kick the ball away from Hester on punts, take your chances on kickoffs.
Pick: Redskins (-3)

NFL Week 13 Picks

Last weekend 7 – 6 – 0
Season 84 – 83 – 9


Spreads are curtesy of the Friday New York post. HOME team in CAPS.
My pick is the first team listed.


Packers (+7) COWBOYS
BEARS (+2) Giants
Jets (+1) DOLPHINS
Falcons (+3) RAMS
REDSKINS (-5.5) Bills
VIKINGS (-4) Lions
Texans (+3.5) TITANS
Jaguars (+6.5) COLTS
Chargers (-6) CHIEFS
EAGLES (-3) Seahawks
49ers (+3) PANTHERS
Bucs (+3.5) SAINTS
Browns (pk) CARDS
Broncos (-3.5) RAIDERS
Bengals (+7) STEELERS
Patriots (-20) RAVENS

Thursday Night Football

DALLAS (-7) Packers: Still do not trust the Dallas defense. Packers will spread the field and take advantage of the weak Cowboy secondary. It would be wise for the Packers to stick with a pass first mentality and not try to establish the run to keep the Dallas offense off the field. To change offensive strategy will only get the Packers into trouble. The Cowboys have an offense that can feature the run or pass, but the Packer defense matches up well with the Cowboy play-makers, especially at LB vs. Jason Whitten and Julius Jones/Marion Barber.
Pick: Packers (+7)

NFL Week 12 Notes

Some thoughts from a few of the games I watched this weekend.

49ers defeat Cardinals: Frank Gore played a tremendous game considering it looked over after what appeared to be a bad ankle injury in the first half. Juking, slashing and then running over people, all those watching this young man were treated to his enormous talent. Arizona coach Ken Whizenhunt made a call with 10 minutes to go in the game that I was not to fond of. Trailing by 3, 4th and 1 from the Niner 2, Whizenhunt went for the TD rather than the tying FG. Sure, if you do not get it you pin the Niners deep and odds are that you will get the ball back with good field position, but there is no guarantee that the Niners, who have been moving the ball the entire game, would not drive the field and put up some more points. The FG was the correct call but the TD succeeded giving Zona a temporary lead. I am also critical of Arizona’s play calling after San Fran punted in OT to give the Cards the ball at the 3 yard line. Warner is not mobile at all so he will not be able to escape any rush. Why not run the ball on 1st down in hopes of picking up some yards and breathing room? Arizona was averaging 4 yards a carry at this point. Warner should also know better in this spot. A veteran QB must feel the rush and get rid of the ball to avoid the safety/fumble. He looked lost on the final play of the game.

Browns defeat Texans: The biggest play of this game was the Owen Daniels fumble after the catch with 6 minutes to go in the 3rd Q. Daniels had the 1st down but did not see a defender behind him who hit the football out of his grasp. It would have been 1st and 10 at the Cleveland 22 with Houston trailing by 7. After the fumble, Jamal Lewis took over and won the game. It took the Texan defense 3 or 4 players to get him down on every touch. Jamal Lewis is only 29 years old and looks to have a lot left in the tank. Derrick Anderson was spot on with almost all of his passes. If not for a few drops, the Browns would have won by a larger margin. Kellen Winslow is a mismatch for a LB or a CB. The Browns have a real shot at winning in the playoffs if the defense plays the way they did against Houston. Houston is likely out of the playoff picture. For the first time this season, Matt Schaub looked nervous and Andre Johnson was a non-factor.

Patriots defeat Eagles: A very entertaining game. Brady looked fantastic again, winning the game by taking what the defense gave him. Feeley played well. People will knock him for throwing the INT with 4 minutes to go. It was a bad pass, yes, but the play should have not happened. 4 minutes to go, 2nd and 4 from the NE 29, run the ball. Andy Reid, you have a standout RB with Westbrook and a very good O-line, run the ball here. People will say that the Eagles gave the rest of the league a blueprint for beating the Patriots. Give me a break. The Eagles made great plays on offense, sure, and have an All-Pro secondary, but let me ask you this. If you watched the game, was there a point at which you felt the Eagles had a real shot at winning? Do you think Brady and company would have put themselves in a position to win if the Eagles’ tied or took the lead on their penultimate drive? The Patriots are a team that will not lose unless the other team plays the perfect game and has the talent on both sides of the ball to execute the perfect game. Who in the NFL matches that description?

Vikings defeat Giants: I always assume 1 Manning bone-headed INT, but this was ridiculous. He looked confused and most of his passes were off the back foot, a sign of intimidation. The Giants better win this week or their season will meet Mr. Hanky for some Christmas cheer. Minnesota is back in the playoff hunt, congratulations. I still say that they should rest Peterson until next season. Chester Taylor is a very capable RB.

Raiders defeat Chiefs: By now, most people know of Herm Edward’s decision to go for the 1st down on 4th and 1, when the Chiefs were down by 3, at the Raider 23 yard line. What is this guy doing? How do you not kick the 40 yard FG to tie the game? The only reason to not kick the FG is if your kicker is hurt, which was not the case here. Gregg Easterbrook, a columnist who contributes to ESPN Page 2 every week in his very well written and researched Tuesday Morning Quarterback, called Herm Edwards going for it “a smart, high-percentage decision”. Agreed, it was high percentage. One yard after you already have over 150 on the ground should be attainable. The execution and lack of a play action pass threat contributed to the Chiefs not getting the 1st down. Calling it smart is debatable. Even an average NFL kicker should be able to make a 40 yard FG on a consistent basis. Tie the game up and rely on your defense against an offense led by the never clutch Dante Cullpepper. Please, Coach Kiffen, get Jamarcus Russel some playing time before the season is over.

Tampa Bay defeats Washington: Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level so any extended time missed will be detrimental to Tampa’s playoff push. Washington has a real gem in Jason Campbell. He made some rookie mistakes again this game, but the talent is obvious. I really like the way he stands tall in the pocket, almost never looking rattled.

Seattle beats St. Louis: Just when you think Frerrotte could actually win a game, 1st and goal from the Seattle 6, he reminds us why he is a back-up. The 1st down pass to Bruce that hit him in the ankles after hitting the ground was atrocious. The 4th down fumbled snap was inexcusable. Steven Jackson looked healthy. Seattle was not very impressive, but won another game, moving them closer to the division title.

San Diego defeats Baltimore: San Diego beat up on a Baltimore team that is playing an extremely poor level of football in every facet of the game. Billick should give McGahee the ball 25 times a game, but for some reason believes that Kyle Boller can run the 4 and 5 wide out-shotgun sets. Let me be offensive coordinator for either one of these teams. I guarantee better results than they are getting now.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Thanksgiving 1 – 2 – 0
Season 77 – 77 – 9

Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Daily News. HOME team in CAPS.

GIANTS (-7) Vikings: There is a chance Adrian Peterson will play this weekend. Why? Save this young man from further complications to his knee, sit him for the year, go find a few WRs and DBs and come back next year ready to make a run at the playoffs. A lot of injuries on the Giant side. The Vikings will continue to run the ball and they will do enough on defense to keep it close. Vikings win this outright if Manning can not throw in what will be a cold and windy day.
Pick: Vikings (+7)

BEARS (-1.5) Broncos: Both teams are disappointments so far, but I like Denver for a few reasons. Javon Walker is going to play. The Bears are still hurting on defense. Wheel of quarterback is spinning again in Chicago with Grossman back at helm. The Bronco defense is getting better as the season goes on and Denver has played consistently well the past few weeks.
Pick: Broncos (+1.5)

Titans (-1.5) BENGALS: Do not trust either team at this point, but Tennessee has a better coach, a solid running game and a better defense.
Pick: Titans (-1.5)

JAGUARS (-8) Bills: Dick Juron has the Bills playing solid football this season, a credit to him for motivating and the players for playing hard. This seems like a mismatch to me however. Marshawn Lynch will not be playing and without him, their toughness on offense diminishes considerably. Jacksonville is playing with determination on both sides of the ball. Del Rio will not let Jacksonville look past Buffalo with a chance to win the division.
Pick: Jaguars (-8)

CHIEFS (-5.5) Raiders: I am still perplexed at Kiffen’s decision to not play Jamarcus Russell. Happy to see Priest Holmes retire before a forever-in-a-wheelchair-hit happened. He never should have come out of retirement in the first place. I am going with the home team here.
Pick: Chiefs (-5.5)

BROWNS (-3) Texans: Andre Johnson turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff contender. The Texans are better defensively than the Browns and offensively, will be able to move the ball on a weak Brown defense. Who would have though that this game would have serious playoff implications when the season started? I am looking forward to this game.
Pick: Texans (+3)

Seahawks (-3) RAMS: This is the Super Bowl for St. Louis. To beat Seattle at home and throw a monkey wrench into their division title aspiration will salvage some of this injury plagued and forgetful season. Besides, I’m not sold on Seattle.
Pick: Rams (+3)

BUCS (-3) Redskins: Washington has played well the past few weeks and I look for that trend to continue. But, I am taking Tampa here. They are the home team, playing for a division title, Garcia is playing at an All-Pro level and their defense is getting better by the week.
Pick: Bucs (-3)

Saints (-2.5) CAROLINA: Carolina seems more lost than N.O. in a game that few people outside of the respective cities and those with fantasy football interests will care about.
Pick: Saints (-2.5)

CARDINALS (-10.5) 49ers: Zona is playing well on both sides of the ball, are at home, looking to get into the division/ wild-card race and are playing a team deep in an offensive funk. Scary part of this game is if Frank Gore gets some room to run, he can single handedly win this game for the Niners. Expect Arizona to load the box and make Dilfer beat them.
Pick: Zona (-10.5)

CHARGERS (-9.5) Ravens: How do you analyze a game where both head coaches have their heads up their asses? I’ll take the home team and move on from there. That does not feel right, I’ll take the points. No, Billick is going 5 wide with Kyle Boller, that pick does not seem right either. Do I even want to watch this game? Whatever.
Pick: Chargers (-9.5)

PATRIOTS (-22) Eagles: I am taking the Eagles because they have a secondary with playmakers and a defensive coordinator that has a blitzing mentality. Maybe that will slow the Patriots down. Maybe not. I think the real reason I am taking the Eagles is because I am an Eagle fan and can not pick against them with a 3 TD head start, regardless if McNabb goes or not. This may be the game Brady gets Giloolyed when he is still on the field in the 4th Q up by 32.
Pick: Eagles (+22)



STEELERS (-16) Dolphins: Dolphins are still playing hard and though they may not win this game, are still playing for organizational and personal pride.
Pick: Dolphins (+16)

Thanksgiving Picks

Last Week 8 - 7 - 1
Season 76 - 75 - 9


Packers (-3) LIONS

Jets (+11.5) COWBOYS

FALCONS (+14) Colts

Croatia defeats England

A two goal lead in years passed, Croatia would have gone into a defensive shell in hopes of protecting the lead. Very few things in sports frustrate me more than a defensive shell in soccer. I see the logic for this strategy with 5 or so minutes to go in the game to protect a lead, but not at the quarter hour when Croatia made it 2-0. I was thrilled that the Croats continued to press for a third goal. England did come back with determined football to tie the match, and people will say that if Croatia went into a shell and only counter attacked, no way England scores two goals. Maybe. This may be true, but I have seen too many Croatia games and know that a defensive shell is not the mentality that fits our players. I remember open to everyone, on field protests when former head coach Kranjacar pulled the players back. Too many times Croatia was asked to protect a lead with much time left in the match, only to give up a goal or two, and then be asked to turn up the dial to score again. The Croats have always played football with flair and a scoring mentality, and there are too many talented players on the roster to ask them to play a shell. I will argue that the reason Croatia won this game was because they pressed for more goals when the score was 2-0. England played very well in the second half to tie the score, but it was evident that the constant Croatia attack wore England out by the 75th minute. I applaud Slavan Bilic with the way he is handling the Croatian National Team and his constant attack mentality is a refreshing alternative to the lackluster, just do enough to win philosophy of previous coaches.

England played with a lot of heart in the second half to tie the score with Beckham and Crouch being catalysts for most of the English chances. I am not a huge supporter of Crouch, but there is no denying his penchant for scoring in big games. His goal against Croatia was world class. Gerrard is England’s best all round football player and I cringed his every touch because I know he is a player that steps up strong in the big spots. The same can not be true about Frank Lampard and Joe Cole. I have documented in my EPL preview post that I feel Lampard is on the downside of his career and never seems to show up for a big contest. Aside from getting the penalty kick to go in the net, Lampard was non-existent. He is no longer a quality option for the English National side. Joe Cole is another player whose reputation exceeds his performance. He had many touches yesterday, no real threat came from any of them and most resulted in him flopping onto the pitch. How he continues to get time with the national side and Chelsea is beyond me.

Would the outcome been different if Rooney and Terry played? I would say yes. Along with Gerrrard, Rooney and Terry are the best English players and would have certainly made an impact on this contest. There is no saying England would have won the match. Croatia is a talented side and came ready to rumble. A possible blessing in disguise, this loss will propel the FA to look at the weaknesses on a team with a number of them, make some changes and ultimately have a successful run at the 2010 World Cup.

NFL Week 11 Notes

Houston defeats New Orleans: In my AFC North Preview, I stated it would be hard for me to not have Andre Johnson in a top 5 NFL receiver list. He turns the Texans from a tough team to beat into a playoff team. The offense flows better with him in the lineup. Johnson demands safety help, ensuring a 7 man box for the running game to be established. The Texan defense, young and very fast, will be a strength for years to come if the group stays together. Mario Williams played with a lot of emotion and had a huge impact on the game. People will say it was because of playing against Reggie Bush, I think not. Watching Houston a lot this year, Williams has played hard and with determination on every down and is becoming a force, a guy that needs a double team or at least a chip from the RB. New Orleans played with some confidence early on. The Reggie Bush fumble was a killer with the score 7-3 Houston in the 1st Q. I liked Payton going for it on 4th and 10 from Houston’s 45 in the 3rd Q with the score 14-10 Houston. I liked Payton going for in on 4th and 2 from the Houston 43 with 12 minutes to play and the score 20- 10 Houston. What I did not like was his play-calling on 3rd down. If you know you are going to go for it on 4th down, run it with Bush on 3rd and 4. New Orleans has a very talented offensive core and with a bit of defense next year will be in the playoff hunt.

Arizona defeats Cincinnati: The Rudi Johnson era may be over in Cincinnati. Rudi Johnson has been one of the more consistent and reliable backs in the NFl for the past three seasons. He is a true between the tackles runner and his body looks a bit slower after three seasons of averaging over 340 carries per season. I do not think Kenny Watson is a #1 running back, but right now looks stronger at the point of impact and a lot quicker than Johnson. The Bengal season, so promising going into the season is dead. They make too many mistakes and have too many holes on defense to really be favored to win any games down the stretch. Arizona looked tough again this week, making plays on both sides of the ball when they needed to. Warner is playing well, the defense is making plays. One knock I have of their win is that the offensive line did a poor job of opening up running lanes against a soft Bengal front 7. The Zona running game has produced very little the past four contests after starting the season with some impressive games. Arizona has a real shot at the AFC West title. They will need continued defensive capacity and more importantly, a running game. As a side note, Antrel Rolle should be reprimanded for his taunting penalty after his game winning INT. He could have cost Arizona the game. Instead of kicking off from the 30, the Cards had to kick from the 15 and if not for a penalty on the return, Cinci would have had the ball at midfield with 20 seconds to go and a chance to tie.

Indianapolis defeats Kansas City: After the second half two minute warning, and Indianapolis facing a 4th a short form the KC 3, I looked at the guy next to me and said that Dungy will and should go for it. He answered back that there is now way he will or should go for it. During the commercial break I explained my side, which was the following. If you kick the field goal, K.C gets the ball back with about two minutes to go with one time out. One can not say what will happen on the kickoff, but a big return is possible. Croyle had been playing well, and with two big targets in Gonzalez and Bowe, had a good chance to get into FG range. If you go for it and get the first down, three kneel downs with a kick and the game is over. Worst case scenario is that you get stuffed and K.C needs to go about 70 yards for a FG attempt. Dungy showed a lot of faith in his line and in Manning to use his size to get a 1st down. I hope that Harrison and Ryan Diem get to 100% for the playoffs.

Jacksonville defeats San Diego: Norv Turner, you are dead to me. Is it really so hard to call on the best RB in football to run it 30 times a game when needed? LT should never be the second option in a football game. 16 rushes for the best RB in the game. 16!!! On the road, with Rivers looking like a college freshman, you gave the ball to LT 16 times. It pained me to watch this game. A consolation is that you may wise on up and change your ways before the season is over. The chargers should still win the West and maybe Norv will have smartened up by then and turn San Diego back into a run first team. I questioned Del Rio going with Gerrard after Grey had played well in his stead. Watching Gerrard this week changed my mind. He looks very smooth and effortless, in total control of the offense. Del Rio showed confidence in his team by going for it twice on 4th down on their second possession of the game. The Jaguar team identity is one of “we are tougher than you and will prove it”. On 4th and 1 from the SD 11 and then the SD 1, the Jags ran the ball getting a fist down and then a TD. Play calling like this instills confidence in a team and shows players that the coach believes in them. Come playoff time, the Jags will have confidence and experience in getting the 1st down when they are faced with a short yardage situation. Norv Turner showed no confidence in his team. 4th and 2 from the SD 39 in the 3rd Q. San Diego has an above average O-line, the best running back in the game and are in need of a confidence boost. Turner eschews all that and punts the ball. Jacksonville scored a TD on that possession. Jacksonville has a real shot at the division and certainly the wild card. The AFC South is strong enough to garner both wild card bids.

Vikings defeat Raiders: Steve Hutchinson gets the majority of press when it comes to the Viking O-line prowess. He deserves all the accolades bestowed on him. It will be an oversight if Matt Birk does not go to the Pro Bowl this year. He is mauling defensive tackles. With Brian McKinney also playing at a high level, the Viking line is doing a lot of damage, evident by the gaudy numbers Peterson and Taylor are putting up on a weekly basis. Tavarious Jackson looks very athletic but I am not sure if he is the answer at QB. I would like to see him play with a few decent wide receivers before casting final judgment. I said it before and I will say it again, Adrian Peterson should not play again this season. As for Oakland, where is Jamarcus Russel? Come on, lets see what this kid has. Scale down the play book and get him in there.


Eagles defeat Dolphins: There will be those in Philly that will call for Kolb or Feely to replace McNabb. These are the same fans that wanted McNabb out a long time ago and they should never speak about football again. McNabb is right behind Brady and Manning as best QB the last 8 years and no QB has done more with so little than has McNabb. The one year Philly management gave him a legit WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. McNabb is out of Philadelphia after this season and I hope he goes somewhere with some decent receivers. Westbrook won this game for the Eagles. Miami has not given up on this season and I will predict that they win a game. Rickey Williams was re-instated by the NFL. There have been many comments about Williams regarding his quitting of football and his use of marijuana. About smoking weed, raise your hand if you never smoked pot. I am not saying that NFL players should be allowed to smoke weed, it is still an illegal drug in this country. I am saying not to treat his pot use as if it is a crime on par with gun possession or shooting someone. In regards to him quitting football, I think he needed a break. Most of the people who criticize him probably never ran at full speed, let alone played football since the age of 8. Football is a grueling sport, with an enormous level of dedication in order to make it to the NFL. Williams made his money and then struggled with his true feelings on playing. I can not fault him for quitting, but I do fault him for not quitting before the NFL draft and leaving the Dolphins with a big hole at RB. I have a question for all those that look at Williams with disgust that he quit football. Do you like your job? If you answered no, and had millions in the bank, would you quit and do some things that interest you? Would you travel and see the world? I certainly would. Williams was getting beaten up every Sunday and needed to get away from it all. I wish him the best.

Denver beats Tennessee: Please get Vince Young some receivers for next season. How many dropped passes did the Titans have? 5, 6 maybe. The better team did not win this game. Why does John Lynch still play football? This man had neck surgery to remove bone spurs in 2004. Why risk limb mobility and play football, especially a hard hitting safety who loves to lead with his head? He had a neck stinger on Monday. Go spend some time with your family. I have a prediction. If someone looked up which player has hurt the most teammates in a career, I bet it would be John Lynch. There will be a pile up, play basically over and Lynch will come flying in to hit anything in sight and a lot of time it is his own teammate.


Dallas defeats Washington: Still not sold on the Dallas defense. Campbell played a wonderful game, his only mistake an interception at the Dallas 20 with about two minutes to go. I did not like the play calling here. Two minutes to go, at the Dallas 20 and all three time outs left. Gibbs decided to go pass happy. Why not run the ball with Portis on 1st down, help your young QB out. If it works on 1st down, run the ball again on 2nd down. There is plenty of time left so run your normal offense. On his interception, Campbell looked hesitant to use his legs once he got outside the pocket. It seemed to me that he had a good bit of space to run. He is going to be a very good QB for a while and Gibbs seems correct in moving up in the 2005 draft to pick him up. I wonder if the Cowboys will be able to move the ball once opposing teams figure out that they should guard Terrell Owens.

Cleveland defeats Baltimore: Fun game to watch. Cleveland let the Ravens back into this game. For all the good Cleveland has done this season, two bad things stand out to me. 1- They have a below average defense, 2- Very talented on offense, they are young and have yet to develop a killer instinct. Cleveland had Pittsburgh on the verge of defeat last week and eventually lost because they got nervous in the second half, making silly mistakes and costly turnovers. Same thing happened here against Baltimore, but the outcome was in their favor. It was news to me that field goals were not review able. Why not change that now? Get the competition committee on conference call and establish FGs as review able. It can’t be that hard and which owner would say no to this. Getting the call correct should be the bottom line.

NFL Week 11 Picks

Last week 7 – 6 – 1
Season 68 – 68 – 8

Home team in CAPS. Spreads from the Thursday New York Post.
My pick for each game is the first team listed.

LIONS (+3) Giants
Steelers (-9.5) JETS
Chargers (+3) JAGUARS
COLTS (-14.5) Chiefs
Raiders (+5.5) VIKINGS
Browns (-2.5) RAVENS
Bucs (-3) FALCONS
Cardinals (+3) BENGALS
EAGLES (-10) Dolphins
Patriots (-16) BILLS
Washington (-10.5) COWBOYS
Bears (+6) SEAHAWKS
TEXANS (-1) Saints
PACKERS (-10) Panthers
Rams (-3) 49ERS
Titans (+2) BRONCOS

NFL Week 10 Game Notes

Games I watched this weekend

Chargers defeat Colts: Did anyone see the look of dismay on L.T.s face during and after the game? The look of, “why am I not the focal point of this offense”. News to Norv “I look shook on the sidelines” Turner, LaDanian Tomlinson is the best running back in the game and needs the ball 30 times at a minimum. San Diego is a running offense and the ball needs to be in the hands of LT throughout the game. I know they have Gates and now Chambers, but these players are the dressing and LT is the salad. During Charger games this season I find myself asking, “why are they not running the ball?”. This is a question that should not be asked on a team with Tomlinson in his prime. San Diego was lucky to win this game, which is sad in lieu of 6 picks and two kick returns for touchdowns.

Packers defeat Vikings: If Adrian Peterson plays again this season I would like to see a boycott of the remaining Metrodome tilts. The best player on your team, a player that has everything to be a star for the next decade just suffered a ligament tear. You are 3-6, no realistic shot at the playoffs, do me a favor, please. DO NOT PLAY THIS YOUNG MAN AGAIN THIS SEASON!! It would be stupid and reckless. I understand that it is not a “serious” ligament injury, but why risk his and the organization’s future? Why was Favre in the game with 6 minutes to go in a 27-0 game? Good news for Green Bay is that Ryan Grant is a determined enough runner to give the Pack a legitimate running game. Somewhat bad news is that standout offensive tackle Mark Tauscher suffered an ankle injury. The Packer website reported that the injury does not seem serious.

Eagles defeat Redskins: I love that Andy Reid kissed McNabb on his head as Reid was giving him a headlock in the closing minutes of the game. Both of them, each excellent at what they do, have been scrutinized heavily through any slide in Eagle production during their tenure together. It seemed to me that Andy Reid really appreciated everything McNabb has accomplished as an Eagle with that kiss. Sort of like the visions of the dying seeing their life flash before their eyes, Reid saw all the wins and success McNabb has given him at that moment. The Eagles are a veteran team with a lot of pride and one heck of a back in Westbrook, who is the MVP of the Eagles this year. A playoff push is possible if the defense can make a few stops a game. The Eagle defense made the Redskin offense look much better than they actually are. Joe Gibbs made a mistake going for 2 when he was up 12- 7 in the 2nd Q.

Steelers defeat Browns: I was waiting for one of the star offensive players on the Browns to make a play in the second half and it never happened. Jamal Lewis was ineffective and Anderson looked nervous. The Brown offense came to a halt after the opening half with their possessions resulting in six punts, a fumble, a kickoff return for a TD and a missed FG attempt. The Brown defense also relented in the second half but that had more to do with the Steelers playing better on the offensive end. Rothlisberger played a tremendous game, made all the big plays he had to and won this game for the Steelers. There is no hesitation in Rothlisberger this year, vividly seen on his long TD run. Willie Parker is a very good runner and the Steeler defense is above average and getting better every week.

Bills defeat Dolphins: Good win on the road for Buffalo against a team desperate for a win. Marshawn Lynch continues to impress. His stat line was a pedestrian 19 rushes for 61 yards, but he had to fight for all those yards and got the ball into the end zone when the Bills needed a TD and the ensuing 2pt conversion. The holding call on Miami’s kickoff return nullifying Tedd Ginn Jr’s TD is a play typical of a losing team. Miami played better on both sides of the ball and should have won this game.

Rams defeat Saints: The Saint defense was once again horrendous. St. Louis moved the ball at will through the air and on the ground. The Saints have a good offense but a serious lack of talent in their defense will make it tough on them to get into the playoffs at 4-5. Steven Jackson looked healthy, Bulger looked healthy and the line played better than it has this season. Barring injuries, St. Louis will win a few more games before this season is complete and play spoiler in the NFC West.

Seahawks defeat San Fran: The first play from scrimmage was a very nice call. Fake handoff to Frank Gore, semi roll-out to the right by Alex Smith, then throw deep to Darrell Jackson on a fly route. Jackson was open by 5 yards but the ball was severely under thrown. The MNF announcers made no comment to the ball being under thrown. They spoke of the play call being good and that the defense was fooled, but neglected to mention that if the ball was thrown correctly, San Fran goes up 6-0. Frank Gore had a good game but looks as if he is limping going back to the huddle after every play. The 49ers need to evaluate his condition and make sure they are not jeopardizing any future Frank Gore production by playing him. I liked Nolan going for the TD on 4th and 1 from the Seattle 2. I did not like him going for the 1st down on 4th and 3 from Seattle’s 23 when he needed a FG at some point in the game, 17-0 at the time, and the San Fran defense had been playing better the last few sets.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Last Week 10 – 4 – 0
Season 61 – 62 – 7

Spreads courtesy of the Thursday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.

Cowboys (-1.5) GIANTS: I am not sold on the Cowboy defense. The Giants come into this game with a confident O-line, a confident and bruising RB in Brandon Jacobs, and a maturing Eli Manning who will have mismatches at his disposal with Burress and Shockey. Manning has avoided bad interceptions the past few games and that trend needs to continue because the Cowboy offense is too good to give them extra possessions. The Giants are going to score on Dallas. If the Giant front 4 can be as effective this week as they have been since the second half of Week 3 against the Redskins, the Giants are going to win. I look for the Giants to play with emotion behind a big game from Jacobs and their front 4. Interesting match up will be how rookie CB Aaron Ross reacts if lined up against Owens.
Pick: Giants (+1.5)

TITANS (-4.5) Jaguars: Vince Young is playing way below his talent level. The Titans wins are from a great defense and coaching. Jeff Fischer is a top 5 NFL head coach and his “F.U.” attitude permeates the Titan roster. Albert Haynesworth is having a defensive MVP season and Kieth Bulluck is heading to the Pro Bowl again. They are at home against a Jaguars team that is not as good as their 5-3 record. Look for Vince Young to snap out of his cold spell. He steps up in the big games and at home against a division rival is a big game.
Pick: Titans (-4.5)

CHIEFS (-3) Broncos: After being out with a severe spine/neck injury, Priest Holmes makes his first start since October 2005. Holmes should be nowhere near a football field. Did the league clear him to play or is this a team doctor decision? Either way, the love of football or money is not worth the risk of being a wheelchair the rest of one’s life. Now, when he plays, I like his chances of regaining some of his form. He will never be the stud RB he was 4 years ago, but he has not taken a hit in 2 years so his body is fresh. 20 touches is a strong possibility. Denver is a mess on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs are playing with confidence, they are at home and playing for a playoff push. I am not a Herm Edwards fan at all, but he is doing a fine job with the Chiefs this season.
Pick: Chiefs (-3)

Bills (-3) DOLPHINS: Dick Jauron has the Bills playing well and are two last second FGs away from a 6-2 record. Jauron needs to stress that his team not look past the Dolphins this week with the Patriots looming next Sunday nigh because the Dolphins are still playing hard, searching for a win to keep them from going 0-fer-season. Marshawn Lynch is a talented runner playing behind a weekly improving O-line. J.P. Losman is re-connecting with the talented Lee Evans. Buffalo’s defense is playing very opportunistically and the Bills have had some big special team plays. This is a tough game for the Bills but I am staying with the hot hand.
Pick: Bills (-3)

PACKERS (-6) Vikings: The way Peterson is full speed one step after hitting the hole or making a cut is a beautiful thing to watch, and a big reason for his success. The Vikings will get a QB and receiver in the off season and be a real threat next season. The Packers are making me a believer and I do not see them losing at home to a team that is so one-dimensional. Green Bay is solid defensively and will keep Peterson from running over 120 yardsd, which should be enough to win. Gregg Jennings is becoming a Favre favorite as a long ball threat. He and Driver will both have a good game.
Pick: Packers (-6)

RAVENS (-4.5) Bengals: Have the Bengals given up? Maybe. I am not sure how much control Marvin Lewis has in the Bengal locker room and their defense is really bad. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot with a 4-4 record. A reservation I have against the Ravens this week is that both starting CBs, McCallister and Rolle, may not play, giving the Bengals an advantage in the throwing game. I have a suggestion for Billick, the “offensive genius”, run the ball 45 times against the Bengals and you will win. This guy is getting way too cute in his play-calling. Going 5-wide in the rain last weekend early in the game was a mistake. I am going with the Ravens here. I’ll take the home team that is playing for the play-offs and to avenge an embarrassing loss last week in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Ravens (-4.5)

Bears (-3) RAIDERS: Jamarcus Russell needs to start and get his feet wet. The Raiders will not make the playoffs and must use these last 8 games as on the job training for Russell. This game is a good opportunity for the Bears to get their defense in somewhat of an order. Bottom line for me is this. The Bears are the more talented team and need to win this game on the road to have a chance at the playoffs.
Pick: Bears (-3)

CARDINALS (-1) Lions: Strange things happen in the desert. The Cards are much better at home and will have starting RT Levi Brown back in the lineup. Detroit is playing well on offense and taking the ball away on defense. Tough game to call but I’ll take the desert team at home with something to prove on the offensive end against a dome team whose defense is playing above their heads.
Pick: Cardinals (-1)

SEAHAWKS (-10) 49ers: I do not trust Seattle giving 10 points to William Cullen Bryant H.S., never mind an NFL team. The Niners have to start scoring at some point, don’t they?
Pick: 49ers (+10)

Colts (-3.5) CHARGERS: The Chargers must come out Sunday night and show that they can win a big game. I see LaDainian Tomlinson being very assertive in practice this week, making sure the offense is prepared and letting the entire team know they are better than their 4-4 record. L.T. will get the ball 30+ times in this game. The Chargers are at home, need a win, need to play well on the national stage and are playing a Colt team that is ripe for an emotional let down after blowing a ten point lead last weekend with a bit over 9 minutes left. An injury to DE Louis Castillo is a big loss for the Chargers. A very talented and athletic player, he is out for about 6 weeks with an ankle injury. I read somewhere that Adrian Peterson had 49 yards at halftime last week, before Castillo was injured.
Pick: Chargers (+3.5)

STEELERS (-9.5) Browns: Pittsburgh is playing well on both sides of the ball. Rothlisberger is playing without the hesitation he showed last season while recovering from severe facial injury due to his motorcycle accident. He should not have been out on the field last season, especially the first 8 games or so, but this is the NFL, and they don’t care about if you are playing with a semi-broken face. Santonio Holmes, a talented and wiry WR, is starting to play up to his potential this season. The Browns defense is still not producing consistent stops but they may have received a momentum push in last week’s win over Seattle. Their stopping of Seattle on 4th and 1 in OT at midfields could be the play that will give their defensive unit a confidence boost heading into this game. Nine points seems a bit much considering the Browns are playing at such a high level offensively. The Browns win this game outright is Lewis gets 22+ carries.
Pick: Browns (+9.5)

PANTHERS (-4) Falcons: Neither team inspires much confidence but I am taking Atlanta for a few reasons. DeAngelo Hall is going to make amends for the first game these two teams played this season when he handed the Panthers the game with dumb penalties, the QB situation in Carolina is a mess, Atlanta has played better defense then their record would indicate and I do not think the team has quit on Bobby Patrino.
Pick: Falcons (+4)

REDSKINS (-3) Eagles:There are too many talented, veteran players on the Eagles to have this season turn into a total wash. Look for Jimmy Johnson to up the pressure on Campbell and stack the box to nullify Portis. McNabb’s job is tied to this game. If the Eagles lose, Kolb will be called on so Eagle management can see who they drafted.
Pick: Eagles (+3)

SAINTS (-11.5) Rams: I keep telling myself to pick the Rams, but then I look at their defense and think “no way”. The bye week helped the offense get healthy, but the defense is still a very weak unit. 12 points to cover is a lot, but N.O. is playing at a high level offensively a 31- 17 type of game is a possibility.
Pick: N.O. (-11.5)

NFL Week 9 Picks

Last Week 4 – 9 – 0
Season 51 – 58 – 7

Home team in CAPS. Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post.


Redskins (-3.5) JETS: Kellen Clemens threw a pass last week, moving forward in the pocket, but had to use only his arm to get a good throw off because I remember a defender at his legs. The throw actually drew ohhhhhs from the crowd and a raise in octave from the announcer doing the play by play because of how strong the throw was. Clemens started the Baltimore game, and I only saw the last 8 or so minutes (included in those minutes were 3 dropped passes, 1 a definite tie the game TD), so I do not know any more about him than someone who watched the pre-season Jet games. Is he poised? Does he manage a game well? Is pressure kryptonite? We will find out. I do know that the fly route and 20 yard out will be part of the playbook once again. The benefit of arm strength is that the game-planning/play calling for the Jets need not be play-action based. Time and time again this season, in crucial situations, Mangini has shown no confidence in Jones and the O-line. As far as I am concerned, 3rd and under 3 yards, anywhere on the field, is 4 down territory this week for the Jets. All this being said, I like the Redskins to come out with emotion after last week, and a running game that will wear down the Jets.
Pick: Redskins (-3.5)

CHIEFS (-2.5) Packers: The Chiefs are 4-3 and the wins have come from a QB challenged Minnesota, turnover plagued San Diego, an underachieving Cincinnati and a bad Oakland team. The common denominator in all their wins is a solid defense. DE Jared Allen is a monster, will be in the All- Pro game every year type of player. The LB corp is very talented with Napoleon Harris, Derrick Johnson and Donnie Edwards. However, Green Bay has grown on me with solid play on both sides of the ball. If RB Ryan Grant can continue on his solid performance from last week, Green Bay has an excellent shot at this game, but also a deep playoff run. Favre is playing really well and the defense should be able to keep L.J. in check. As a note, the line has moved from KC -1 to KC -2.5.
Pick: Packers (+2.5)

BUCCANEERS (-3.5) Cardinals: Warner is still a good QB. Not as good as he was in the early part of this century, but still a better QB than 75% of the league starters. He is still accurate and quick with his reads. Arizona’s O-line is beat up, but under Russ Grimm’s tutelage, has become better every week. They are opening holes for Edge and throwing lanes for Warner. Coming out of the bye week, I like Arizona in the hot weather against a team that let Quinn Grey beat them last week.
Pick: Cardinals (+3.5)

TITANS (-4) Panthers: Titans come out to play every game. Titans still need to get a top notch receiver. In the mean time, I would like to see Justin Gage see more passes thrown his way. His size is impressive and I have seen him make a few tough catches this year. The Titans have a defense that should bottle up the Panther running game and I see Tennessee winning by 10. Carolina is a mediocre team right now.
Pick: Titans (-4)

FALCONS (-3.5) 49ers: Petrino really needs to give the ball to Norewood more than he gives the ball to Dunn. Warrick Dunn has had a great career, was a very versatile back, but has lost that quickness and burst that made him so effective for so many years. Norewood has quickness, speed, excellent receiving skills, big play potential and age on his side. With the Falcon record where it is, why not turn the starting job over to Norewood? The Niners are a disappointment this season. Frank Gore is gimpy and overall, the offense is playing poorly. Alex Smith is the starter once again, and if the O-line can give him some time, should be able to move the ball with throws to a talented receiving corp in Arnaz Battle, Darrell Jackson and Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis is a mismatch for most LB’s in the league and should get open this week. The Niner defense, young and athletic, has not played very well against the good offenses they have faced this season. The injury to OLB Manny Lawson was a big blow in week 2. I will put an if bet on this game.
Pick:
If Gore plays – Niners (+3.5)
If Gore does not play – Falcons (-3.5)

SAINTS (-3) Jaguars: Even with Quinn Grey at helm for the Jags, this is a tough game to call. The Jaguars are a hard-nosed team seems to be in every game. N.O. has a potent offense with talent at QB, RB and WR, but a defense that the Jaguars can run on. Both coaches are good in my book. The deciding factors for me are these. Saints are at home, Reggie Bush is showing his capability as an every down back, Jaguar DT Marcus Straud may not play and Quinn Grey is not an attractive option for winning the game. The Saints will game plan to stop the Jag running game and win by 7 or more.
Pick: Saints (-3)

LIONS (-3) Broncos: RB Kevin Jones has been a favorite of mine since watching him play at VaTech. He brings a lot to the Lions and Mike Martz will feature him in his game planning. Kitna has not thrown a TD in a few games but expect that to change this week. Denver does not seem to be doing much of anything with a level of excellence. Detroit’s defense has been very good at taking the ball away this season. I like Detroit at home behind a 100+ yard effort from Jones and a few Kitna TD passes.
Pick: Detroit (-3)

Bengals (-1) BILLS: The Bills are two last second FGs away from being a 5-2 team. Juron has Buffalo playing very hard and with an emphasis on running the ball. Lynch will be the focal point again for the Bills’ offense and should see some holes behind a good O-line pushing against a soft Bengal D-line. The benching of Losman could prove a benefit. Sometimes one needs to go into the pits (in this case the pits is the bench) to find rejuvenation. Cincinnati has had trouble scoring in the red zone this season, leading to FGs rather than TDs, resulting in losses rather than victories. I had the Bengals winning the division this season. Not going to happen. Buffalo has momentum, is home and are playing a beaten down team that may be quitting soon.
Pick: Bills (+1)

Chargers (-7) VIKINGS: This was part of a post I wrote in regard to the Chris Chambers trade a few weeks back. “The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited.” The Chargers were my pick to win the AFC this year and I am sticking to it. Their defense is starting to play at the level they did last season and once LT gets going, their offense will be deadly. Jason Whitlock, an excellent writer for The Kansas City Star, has campaigned for Jeff George to be the Viking QB, giving the Vikings a deep threat so the box won’t be stacked against the impressive Adrian Peterson. Interesting idea, but one that will not manifest itself this week. This is a game San Diego will win big.
Pick: Chargers (-7)

BROWNS (-1.5) Seahawks: Not a fan at all of Seattle right now. Their offense is soft may be missing Deion Branch again this week. Let’s see if Alexander starts running with authority. Seattle has a decent defense led by LBs Tatupu and Peterson, but the Browns are home and playing with tremendous confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Then they have to play defense. I am not so sure they are getting better as the year wears on so this may be an opportunity for the Seahawks to score a few points. I like the Browns in this game because of their offense and because I think Seattle is not very good team at this point in the season.
Pick: Browns (-1.5)

Patriots ( -5) COLTS: The Colts have played the tougher schedule and are home. Payton Manning is no longer a deer in headlights in the big games, has won the Super Bowl and the last three head to head games against New England. His rapport with Wayne and Clark has grown from last season and Gonzalez is a WR who played in many big games during his time at Ohio State. We all know of the offensive output from the Patriots. A key for this game is to not let Brady have his customary 7 Mississippi count to throw. Interesting match-up will be LT Matt Light against Dwight Freeney. Look for Bob Sanders to throw a whollop on Moss and/or Welker early and often to try and set some type of tone and I would not be surprised if the Colts blitzed a bit more than they usually do. I like the Colts to win outright.
Pick: Colts ( +5)

RAIDERS (-3) Texans: I read a report the Andre Johnson may play 10-15 snaps this game. What’s the point? If he is not ready to go full throttle, he should not be in the game. If there are any questions as to whether or not his knee is ready, he should sit out this week and get ready for week 11 after the Texan bye next week. The Raiders don’t impress me and it seems that Jordan has been losing some carries to Justin Farges. If the Texans have any thoughts of a playoff push after the bye week, a win here is a must. I see them playing with urgency and I see their above average defense making some plays.
Pick: Texans (+3)

Cowboys (-3) EAGLES: The Cowboy offense is fun to watch, and I especially like when Barber is running with the ball. He needs to see the majority of snaps. The Cowboys are overrated because their defense is not that good right now. I see the Eagles playing well behind a getting healthier McNabb and Eagle MVP Brian Westbrook. Curtis and Brown need to make catches like they did last week for the rest of the year. The Eagle offense will get a boost from the return of L.J. Smith who is a red zone favorite for McNabb. The Linc will be a zoo for this one, tailgating starts at 10AM.
Pick: Eagles (+3)

STEELERS (-9) Ravens: Is this really the line? I know the line makers know a lot more than most of us but who would have put the line this high? I was thinking 4.5 or so. Well, who am I to go against the people in Vegas.
Pick: Steelers (-9)

NFL Week 8 game notes

A five day drink fest culminated with me arriving home Sunday morning around 6 A.M. I did not go to any of my local, NFL friendly pubs on Sunday so I watched only the locally broad casted games. Here are some of my thoughts from those games.

Giants defeat Dolphins: If this game was played on a better field, the Giants would have won by a large margin. Their offensive line tore apart the Miami front 7 and Jacobs was running very hard. The Giants list Jacobs at 260 pounds. I am not sure if he is that heavy, but his muscle mass and height are impressive. He continues to run with anger and although not on display often in this game, is becoming a better blocker as the year progresses. Eli Manning did little to win the game, but maybe more importantly, did not lose the game when called upon to pass in the muck. The Dolphins still have some aging players that other teams may want via trades. Taylor and Thomas may be worth draft picks this off season and the Dolphins would be wise to listen to offers.

 Watching the game, I would have guessed that half the fans at Wembley Stadium for this game were Americans living in Europe who jumped at the opportunity to see an NFL game. The rest being 30% Europeans who followed the NFL Europe league and now had the opportunity to watch an NFL game in person. The last 20% simply people who wanted to have a few beers and watch some organized violence. I am not sure of these numbers, just guessing.
 The NFL has a great product. Passion, athleticism and teamwork are just three qualities that link NFL football and soccer. The one attribute that the NFL has that soccer does not, and is appealing to European countries, especially those that play rugby, is the violence that happens with every single play in the NFL. I am positive that a casual fan at the game last Sunday, a fan who never watched an NFL game before, saw the extreme level of contact and became hooked.
 The NFL will never take over as the premier sport in Europe. Soccer is too popular and beautiful of a sport to lose its perch as #1. The NFL has to reach the fans by finding a way to get some NFL games on local television stations, especially during the playoffs. Have tutorials on rules and strategy before, during and after the games. The NFL Europe league was the equivalent of Triple AAA baseball so the more real NFL games Europeans get to watch, the better.


Bills defeat Jets: In what has become a common theme with Mangini, he had no confidence in his offensive line or running game when it mattered most. The Jets had the ball at the Buffalo 40 with 6 minutes to go. 3rd and 3 and I am thinking, ”this is certainly 4 down territory, give it to Jones twice and see what happens”. Wrong, incomplete pass and the Jets punted. Jones is running real hard all day behind an offensive line that had been pushing the Bill front 7 off the line and yet Mangini decided to throw and then punt. You are 1-6, at home, down by 3 late in the game and he decided to play it safe. After showing zero confidence in his line and running game repeatedly through the year, I wonder if it has creeped into his lineman’s heads, “we really do stink”. Even after the punt landed on the 3, did anyone really think that the Jets were going to stop Lynch before he got a couple of first downs? I didn’t. Congrats so far to Buffalo. They are playing hard week in and week out and seem to have a good core of young players to build on.

Packers defeat Broncos: The supposedly best CB tandem in the league got beat for the two long TD passes. First it was Champ Baily in the 1st Q and then Dre Bly in OT. I am still not sold on the Packers but I will say this. My mind is changing as I see them get a running game going. At the start of the season, I though Favre was through being an elite QB. I was wrong. Then I thought that without a running game, the Packers could not win. Wrong again. But, when the playoffs arrive, the Packers will need a decent running game to win and they may have found something in Ryan Grant. It was one game against a shaky run defense ,so let’s see how he does the next few games. If they get a ground game going, I will start to believe in this Packer team.

NFL Week 8 Picks

Last Week 6- 8- 0
Season 47- 49- 7

I have been on a 5 day bender so I have not thought of these games too intently.

Giants(-9.5), Bills (+3), Rams (+3), Bears (-5),Colts (-6.5), Titans (-7.5),
Eagles (-1), Bengals (+4), Texans (+10), Buccaneers (-4), Saints (-3),
Redskins (+17), Broncos (-3)

Glenn Dorsey Chop Blocked

Last Saturday, Auburn’s freshman RG Chaz Ramsey took a vicious shot at LSU standout DT Glenn Dorsey’s knee. Did an Auburn coach tell his young, impressionable lineman, who wants to be a starter on Auburn for all 4 years to take Dorsey out, help Auburn get a big win? Or is Chaz Ramsey a very mean person who has and will do this again? Combination of both? I am happy for Dorsey that the injury is a sprain and he is scheduled to play next Saturday.

NFL Week 7 Game Notes

Games that I watched this weekend:

Bengals beat Jets: Eight second half rushes by Thomas Jones is not enough when
you are up 10 at half. The offensive line did a poor job at opening up holes
for Jones to run through, a travesty considering that the Bengals had been
giving up a ton of yards on the ground through their first five games.Overall, the Jet offensive line is not playing well this year. I thought it was a team strength , but has yet to live up to expectations. Pennington needs to take a seat. It may seem like a panic move by some, but at 1-6, what are your options? Is he going to be your QB next season? If the answer is yes, then keep him in there, but if the answer is no, bring in Clemens and see what he has. The Jet defense stinks. No pass rush, can't stop the run, and opposition receivers are constantly open. I was very wrong about the Jets this season, having them winning the division. Congrats to the Bengals on winning this game. A big test against the Steelers this weekend. If they want recognition as a playoff contender, a home win against a division opponent is a must.

Giants defeat San Fran: The Giants are playing the best football in the NFC right now and took care of an inferior San Fran team. The offensive line is playing at an elite level, Jacobs and company are running angry and the receiving trio of Burress, Shockey and Toomer are making plays. Manning seemed to have avoided his mandatory one bone headed interception per game in this one. The interception deep inside SF territory was the result of a tipped pass at the line. The effectiveness of the Giant defense is dependent on the front 4. Whenthey are causing havoc, the Giant defense is solid because the weaknesses at LB and secondary are being masked. Outside of Antonio Pierce, the Giants lack a consistent playmaker behind the defensive line. However, if the line plays at the level they are playing at now, the Giants have a real shot at the East andat making a deep playoff push.

Buffalo defeats Baltimore: Ok, so there are 60 seconds left in the 2nd Q. The
Ravens are down 9-0 and have the ball, 4th and 10 from the Bill 39 yard line. I am watching the game thinking "The punt unit is coming out, why is the punt unit coming out?" You are at home, have a defense you believe in and there are 60 seconds left in the half. Why is this guy punting? I thought that was a bad call on Billick’s part, especially with Baltimore getting the kick to start the 2nd half. The second half starts with a Baltimore TD drive featuring McGahee running for 72 yards on 4 carries. What does the "offensive genius" Billick do on the next Baltimore possession, down 12 -7? Pass, pass, pass, punt. The next Baltimore possession when they were down 19-7, with 18 minutes left to play? The get to the Buffalo 8 yard line, 3rd and 3. McGahee is running hard and the offensive line is playing well, run the ball was what I thought. Wrong. The "offensive genius" calls two pass plays resulting in two incompletions. If you know you are going for it on 4th down, run it on 3rd and 4th down. Buffalo is a tough team and Marshawn Lynch is a gifted running back. He is going to be a good player in this league for a while. My AFC final 4 included the Ravens and not the Patriots. I would like to amend that prediction please.

Cowboys defeat Vikings: I am still not convinced that Dallas is an elite team but they continue to win, so what do I know. Their defense is a weakness and will prevent them from reaching the Super Bowl if they do not tighten up that unit. Marion Barber runs like he is possessed and needs to be the featured back. He is tough, blocks extremely well, comes out of the backfield as a receiver better than Jones and has a mean streak that is needed to win in this league. Romo played at an All Pro type level in this game. If the Vikings had a QB, they would fight for a playoff spot.

Patriots defeat Dolphins: It was interesting the way every onlooker at the bar, regardless of fan affiliation, watched every Patriot possession in the first half. As Brady had his customary seven Mississippi count in the pocket, a collective, anticipatory hush fell across the bar on both his long attempts to Moss, and laughter of dismay and pleasure when Moss came down with the TDs. All football fans know that the Patriot offense can break records and most of these fans are happy to be witness to it. Good luck to Ronnie Brown and Renaldo Hill on their upcoming ACL reconstructions and rehabilitations. Good luck to the Dolphins on possibly winning a game this year.

Bears defeat Eagles: When a team get to the red zone, the field shrinks. WRs need to work harder to get open. This is not happening in Philly and their red zone TD rate is abysmal because of it. Ronnie Brown and Kevin Curtis are not the answer at WR and the Eagle offense is paying for it. It is no coincidence that the one year McNabb had an elite WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl and McNabb was an MVP candidate. It is a shame that the Eagles refuse to go out and get McNabb support outside of Westbrook and I root for him to get out of Philly when this year is complete and go somewhere that will support his tremendous talent better. Chicago is a better team with Griese at helm and they are also a better team when Adrian Peterson gets more touches than Cedric Benson. I see little in Benson at this point. No toughness and no desire to get the extra yard. Peterson will start to get more touches as the season progresses,

New Orleans defeats Atlanta: If you go to nfl.com, you can see a 4 minute or so highlight clip from every game. If you look at the clip of this game, take note of the angle the Atlanta LB takes on Bush’s 4th Q TD run after catch. It’s 3rd and goal form the 4. Short pass to the left and Bush gets tangled with the right CB and is being held up. The LB in question, running from the middle of the field towards the tangle on the right sideline between Bush and the right CB, does a very amateur thing. Instead of knocking them all out of bounds, he tries to push the pile back towards the line of scrimmage. Bush frees himself and scores. Atlanta is playing above their talent level and could have three wins at this point. They played better than Jacksonville in week two and outplayed N.O. in this game. Jerious Norewood deserves more touches and Roddy White is a future All Pro.

Colts beat Jaguars: A clinic by the Colt offense. They took what the Jaguar defense gave them and wore out Jacksonville by the end of the game. In all the years I have watched Manning and company, I feel that this is their most cohesive offensive unit. The offensive line is elite, Wayne is now a seasoned veteran making the difficult catches, Marvin is still his All Pro self, Addai and Keith are both tough, explosive runners and Clark has emerged as an elite TE. I will be rooting for them in two weeks against the Pats. Why was Jones- Drew running the ball with 3 minutes to go in the game down by 3 TDs. I hope his knee injury is non-lingering.

Seattle defeats St. Louis: Seattle will probably win the NFC West, but they lack a toughness needed to make a deep push in the playoffs. Alexander is running like he is avoiding contact and the offensive line is nothing to brag about. The defense is the Seahawk strength right now.

Chiefs defeat Raiders: With the pints of Sam Adams and Patron shots flowing, I really did not watch this game too intently, but I will say this. What the hell is Priest Holmes doing back on the football field? He suffered a neck/spine injury categorized as severe two years ago and now is going helmet to helmet again with very angry, very large defensive players that do not care of prior spinal/ neck injury. Does he need the money, because if so, I’ll start a collection. He should not be on the field.

NFL Week 7 Picks

Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Post. HOME team in CAPS.

Last week 5- 6- 2
Season 41- 41- 7


Games I would wager on if in Vegas.

Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS: Seems like too many points given by a team that plays no defense.

Steelers (-3.5) over BRONCOS: Steelers kicked the snot out of Seattle before the bye week and now get most of their injured players back. The Broncos do not look good on either side of the ball and will be without Javon Walker.

Rams (+8.5) over SEAHAWKS: The Rams will probably have Bulger back at QB and are also getting healthy on the O-line. Seattle has shown very little the past few weeks in terms of talent or heart. I don’t feel confident picking Seattle to win this game outright at this point, never mind the large line.


Games I think I know what I am talking about.

Patriots (-16.5) over DOLPHINS: Only scary part of this spread is that Brady has never really excelled in Miami. However, this is a Patriot team looking to destroy all teams on their schedule and Miami has Cleo Lemon at QB who looked razzed at times against a poor Brown defense last week.

EAGLES (-5.5) over Bears: I had predicted these two teams to meet in the NFC championship game. Whoever loses this game will probably not make the playoffs. The Eagles are a bit more balanced on both sides of the ball right now and are at home.

Chiefs (+2.5) over RAIDERS: I hate the fact that I am picking the Chiefs. I am not sold on Cullpepper at all right now, the Chiefs are running the ball well and playing solid defense.

Colts (-3) JAGUARS: I can smell a 24-10 Colt halftime lead. The Colts are rested, have their offensive stars healed after the bye week and are the better team. I do not think the 4-1 Jaguar record is an indication of their abilities. They lost to the only solid team they played , Titans, and were fortunate in victories against the Falcons and Chiefs. Besides, the Colts and Pats are destined to play their game later in the season both undefeated.


Games that I would stay away from:

Falcons (+9) over SAINTS: I think the Saints will win, but they are poor against the run and Leftwich is a smart QB that will make the Falcons a better team

Ravens (-3) over BILLS: Throw all analysis out the window when the Bills are at home.

TEXANS (+1.5) over Titans: The Texan defense should be able to control the game, especially if Collins is QB for the Titans.

Vikings (+9.5) over COWBOYS: I like to look at the games for the week and before looking at the line, trying to guess the line. My guess for this game was Vikings
+5.5. The Cowboys are a bit overrated, especially when you take their defense into account.

Buccaneers (+2) over LIONS: The Lions are so erratic right that I would stay away from their games. The Bucs are winning with defense and Garcia is playing at a very high level. The addition of Bennett will help their running game.


The If games- These are 2 games that have injury issues that are important, will be game time decisions, and swing my picks from the favorite to the underdog depending on if they are playing or not.

If QB Smith plays for the 49ers 49ers (+9) over GIANTS
If QB Smith does not play GIANTS (-9) over 49ers


If QB Warner plays for the Cardinals Cards (+8.5) over REDSKINS
If QB Warner does not play REDSKINS (-8.5) over Cards

Ray Rice

Here is a prediction from me to you I hope to be wrong about. Ray Rice will not go as high as he should in the NFL draft (he is a junior this season) because his pre-draft combine results will not be stellar. He will not post a great 40 time, or jump high in the vertical test or do extremely well in whatever athletic tests they have at these events. I have watched Ray Rice run a lot the past two seasons. He runs angry, always keeping his legs moving. His blocking is above average and has improved his ability to come out of the backfield as a receiver. Most importantly, he plays at a higher level in the big games, wanting the ball. All of Ray Rice’s big games and big moments, his instincts as a running back and leadership qualities will be marginalized because of his 40 time or number of bench presses. He will not be the first player to fall in the draft because of the “combine” results and unfortunately, will not be the last.

NFL Week 6 Game Notes

Here are my thoughts on games I watched this weekend.


Eagles defeat Jets: The Jets had the ball, 3rd and 1 at the Eagle 3or 4 yard line, late in the 4th Q, needing a TD. Once again Mangini showed ZERO confidence in his running back and offensive line. Jones is having a monster day, running behind an offensive line playing very well, especially on the right side. Give it Jones until you get in the end-zone He went with a QB sneak that netted 4 inches. The Eagles knew that play was coming, the Jets already ran the sneak twice. Next play, spread set and an incompletion. Awful. I root for the Eagles and even I was pissed that Mangini/Schottenheimer called those plays. Pennington needs a seat so we can see what Clemens has. An outstanding finish is needed by the Jets to make the playoffs and the way Pennington is playing, all the INTs, it is not going to happen with Chad at helm. Also, Coles and Cotchery need someone that can get them the ball downfield without needing to rely on play-action. They are both playmakers that are being hindered by Pennington. The Eagles looked good yesterday, especially Westbrook. He is an extremely tough runner who is the MVP of the Eagle offense this year. McNabb will get better and have more confidence in his knee as the year progresses. The Eagles are a team that can get far into the playoffs. The NFC is wide open and they have playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Patriots defeat Cowboys: If you are reading this, I am sure you watched the game, so I won’t go into how great the Pats are. I will say that the Cowboys have yet to show any defensive ability against a good offense. The Giants moved the ball at will opening night and the Pats did whatever they wanted on Sunday. The other Cowboy opponents this season have been the offensively challenged Bears, Dolphins, Rams and Bills. Their offense is very good, but are going to need to step up defensively if they want to get the Super Bowl. I have a beef with Wade Phillips going for a FG at the 10 minute mark of the 4th Q when they were down 38-24. You are at the Pats 6 yard line, down by two TDs. Best case scenario is you get a TD and are now down by 7. One defensive stop and you can tie the game. Worst case scenario is that you do not get the TD, the Pats have the ball at the 6, and you are down two possessions. What does a FG here do? Assume you get the FG. Now you are down 11, still needing two more possessions. You need to stop the Pats, score a TD, then convert the 2 point conversion, kick off and stop Brady again, move the ball into FG range (assuming you get the 2pt conversion) and kick a FG. Brady already has 5 TDs in the game, moving the ball at will, and you think you are going to stop him not once, but twice. Give me a break. Phillips showed no balls and kicked the FG so he would not be second guessed. It was a bad call to go for the FG when they were down by 14 and if someone thinks differently, please explain why.

Bucs defeat Titans: These are two well coached teams that play very hard every week. Jeff Garcia was pressured many times this game, but always seemed to get away from trouble and make a play downfield. The Bucs are a team that will be vying for a playoff spot at the end of the year. A concern has to be the running game. Graham is in the NFL for a reason, but I do not see him as a featured back. Garcia has experience quarterbacking two pass first offenses with San Fran and Philly, so if the offensive philosophy becomes one dimensional, he has the experience and talent to do so. Let’s hope that Vince Young gets back on the field quick because the Titans will go no where with Kerry Collins at helm. One play sticks out in my head. While being sacked in the red-zone, he turned in the opposite direction from where they were driving and threw the ball down on the field. It was amazing, my description will not do the play justice and if I find a clip of it, I will put it on the site.

Baltimore beats St.Loius: Twice I turned to the TV carrying the game and thought, “the Rams are punting”, but it was actually ducks thrown up by Ferrotte that only looked like punts. The Ravens defense has played well the past two weeks, but it has been against the 49ers and Rams, two bad offenses. The Ravens defense gets to be bullies again this week against Buffalo, a game that they should win.

Chiefs beat Bengals: This game was on a corner TV because no body cared for it, so I really did not watch much of it. The Bengals are the leagues premier underachievers this year because they are healthy and losing.

Minnesota defeats Chicago: Really fun game to watch and how much can you say about Adrian Peterson, “Purple Jesus” according to a buddy of mine. On his 73 yard run, the way he waited for blocking after he got into the secondary, and then cut back against the defense, and then out-sprinted everyone was absolute beauty. That play exemplifies his talents, instincts and God-given ability. It is going to be fun watching him run for the next decade or so. Peterson even ran a kickoff back into Bear territory to help set up the winning FG. You put a QB on the Vikings and they have as good a shot as any to make a playoff push in the NFC. I liked the Bears to make it to the NFC championship game. The defense is going to have to play a lot better for them to even make the playoffs. Big game against Philly next week. A loss by either team and their playoff chances are in peril.
Cleveland defeats Miami: If Cleveland had a defense they could win the division. I was a big fan of Winslow coming into the year and he continues to be a mismatch against any team. Braylon Edwards has really stepped up. He always had talent, but I got the feeling about him that he never really cared about succeeding, making tough catches. That has certainly changed this year. I have seen him make more than a handful of really tough, over the middle grabs, while getting hit type of catches this season. It seems his swagger is more of a confidence in his ability than a “ I am going to show you up” attitude. Miami has traded Chambers to San Diego. I called for Miami to do this a few weeks back. Now if they can get a few more picks for Taylor and possibly Brown, they can really start to rebuild.

Green Bay defeats Washington: Jason Campbell has a good chemistry with his TE Cooley. If Moss and Randal-El can get in synch with Campbell the same way, this offense can be really strong. The Packers still don’t impress me, but they continue to win so what the heck do I know.

Jacksonville defeats Houston: Houston desperately needs Andre Johnson back. He makes the entire offense better. The turning point of this game came in the 1st Q. Houston was up 3-0 and on a crossing pass deep in Jax territory, Andre Davis caught the ball and looked to be going into the end zone. Instead of tucking the ball and driving for the score, he tried to get cute and extend the ball over the goal line. This was not necessary and he got stripped of the ball, the ball went through the end zone for Jax ball at the 20. I know it’s early but the play changed the game. Houston would have had momentum and a 10-0 lead. Real ballsy call by Jack Del Rio to onside kick after scoring a TD to go up 7-6 late in the 2nd Q. Jax converted a FG on the drive to make it 10-6 at half. The second half opened up with a 14 play 7 minute Jax drive. It was not good for Houston from that point on as Jax rolled the rest of the way.

Carolina defeats Arizona: VINNY!!!VINNY!!!VINNY!!! I had Zona in this one, but once Rattey had to come in for Zona, I knew it would be tough for them to win and wanted to see Vinny do well. Aside from the long ball to Smith late in the game, most of Vinny’s passes were short and conservative. I hope he does well for Carolina.

Chargers defeat Raiders: The addition of Chris Chambers is huge. Chambers is a freak physically, has great hands and will help open things up for Rivers and the Charger passing game. The offense will still, and should go through LT, but to have Chambers on the outside means that there will be fewer 8 man fronts and less double coverage of Gates. A fantastic move by the Chargers, any San Diego fan has to be real excited. Chambers also gets 2 weeks to learn the playbook before SD plays again after this week’s bye.

Giants defeat Atlanta: Did not watch the game

New Orleans defeats Seattle: Seattle looked soft on both sides of the ball and played this game with little emotion. They have the personnel to be better than a .500 team but seem to crumble at any real competition. Holmgren needs to start yelling at people and should start with Shaun Alexander and the offensive line. Reggie Bush looked like he was running hard between the tackles. He is an amazing athlete and by running tough between the tackles, he will break more and more long runs as the season progresses. A nine win season can get the Saints into the playoffs so they need to go 8 and 2 the rest of the way. Not impossible for a team with this much talent on offense. Will the defense play well enough to give New Orleans a shot at winning is a major question that will answer itself in the weeks ahead.