Liverpool was my pick to win this title at the start of the campaign and there is no reason to go against them at this point. Rafa Benitez is a genius regarding in game adjustments and has the talent available to adjust his lineup and formation to match any style of play he desires. What about Grant? When this game gets to the second half and his team is a goal down will he have the knowledge and creativity to make formation and personnel adjustments? How about the return leg, will he know how to cope with a deficit or protect a lead? I am not so sure. In game and between game adjustments were not a problem when Jose Mourinho managed. All Chelsea supporters were certain Mourinho put the correct lineup on the pitch and he always put his players in the best positions to win.
What I have really liked from Liverpool’s lineup the past month is Kyut playing midfield. I wondered at first why Benitez would do this. And then it struck me, Benitez needed a tough guy on the wing for future matchups. Look at Chelsea. They have a very talented playmaking player in Joe Cole running the left wing. Joe Cole may disappear in big games but there is no denying his pace and talent on the wing. Kyut will most certainly give him a good whack or two in order to get Cole a bit more nervous than he already will be. When Liverpool make it the final, ManU or Barca will be there and their star wingers are Ronaldo and Messi respectively. Again, Kyut will be there playing tough defense on Ronaldo and Messi, making certain to not concede any space to them.
Liverpool will win because of Benitez, Gerrard , Torres and the team’s uncanny ability to win big games. I also have very little faith in Chelsea’s star players when the heat is on. Lampard and Joe Cole become liabilities in big games. Of course, Essien and Drogba, Chelsea’s two best players, can carry the offense and with John Terry providing world class defense, Chelsea can win. But I would put the odds at 5 to 1 that Chelsea advance to the final.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Eduardo da Silva breaks leg
Here is video and commentary of the very nasty injury suffered on Saturday, February 23 to Croatian national and Arsenal striker Eduardo da Silva. This injury will sideline Eduardo for quite some time. Talk of this injury being career threatening may be a bit rushed, but fears that Eduardo may never recover from such a blow is warranted.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Champion's League 1st Leg Notes
Roma (2) vs. Real Madrid (1): Real Madrid played offense through the middle of the pitch, even after Roma dedicated another mid fielder to defense in front of the center backs. I would have liked to see Real spread the field a bit and use crosses from the wings. Except for a shot of the post late in the game, Van Nistelroy was a non factor. I was surprised Baptista did not start, and even more surprised Schuster brought him on so late in the contest, minute 77. Baptista replaced Robben who played an excellent game. Roma had a few odd man breaks in the second half that they failed to capitalize on. One in particular was awful. 4-2 break, the spacing was too narrow and the passing even worse. I don’t think they got a shot off from this chance. Totti started the game slow, but showed his class in the second half, culminating in a steal from a bad Real pass and then placed a beautiful pass to a cutting Mancini who calmly beat the goalie. Real needs Robinho back. Their offense is not the same without his speed and skill up front.
Olympiacos (0) vs. Chelsea (0): This was one of the more boring matches I have seen in a long time. There was plenty of rain in the air and on the field, so one could surmise a team from England should be able to play in these conditions better than a team from Greece. Wrong, Chelsea lacked movement and pace the entire contest. Drogba had two chances, a strike in the first half that was saved, and then a header late in the second half that he should have done better with, sailing the ball over the bar. Olympiacos settled for counter attacks most of the contest, getting numbers in their favor a few times, but failing to get any thing menacing on net.
Liverpool (2) vs. Inter (0): As much as I hate Matterazzi, he did not deserve either yellow card that led to his dismissal early in the first half. Maybe his reputation preceded him, maybe the ref has a grudge, I do not know, but I am certain that the referee will face questioning after two awful calls that looks to have decided this contest before the return leg to Milan. A matchup of this magnitude is not for the referee to decide, but for the talent of the players on the pitch. After Materazzi’s dismissal , Liverpool controlled tempo but did not have any real chances at net. After half time, Inter seemed to get some momentum and threatened with a few shots and corners. Liverpool regained control at about the 75 minute mark and continued to pepper the Inter defense to no avail until Kuyt’s breakthrough at the 85 minute mark. Gerrard added a second goal a few minutes later. Young Dutch international Ryan Babel had a solid game. Liverpool uses him on the outside, but his physical qualities seem more suited for striker. Babel is fast, tall, has excellent skill with the ball at his feet and a relentless motor.
I have argued against the away goals rule for tie breaks. Let us say Inter beats Liverpool 3-1 in Milan with no dismissals. Under the away goals rule, Liverpool would advance. Is this fair? Why is 2-0 in an 11 on 10 game more impressive that a 3-1 full strength match? Uefa needs to improve the tie break rule. Away goals is garbage. In the event of a tie after two games, the teams should go to two 15-minute halves followed by penalty kicks if necessary.
Celtic (2) vs. Barca (3): Celtic looked lost against Barcelona’s movement and give-and-go passing. I am sure that Celtic do not see an offense with such movement and understanding of space in the Scottish league. Celtic played with a lot of heart but were simply out classed for most of the contest. Henry, in my opinion, is the best pure striker in the world when fit, and had a beautiful goal in the second half. From the corner of the penalty box area, Henry was given about two yards of space by the defender who worried against Henry’s quickness to goal. Henry simply curled a shot around the defense and goalie for the score. Magnificent goal that he made look effortless. Ronaldinho looked motivated and Messi was world class.
Celtic still has a chance and would be wise to go all out on offense. Some coaches would say, “let’s play our normal game and see what happens”. Well, Celtic tried that and should be down 5-2 rather than the 3-2 they are down. Abandon the 4-4-2 and go with more of an attack friendly 4-3-3 or 4-1-2-1-2.
Lyon (1) vs. Man United (1): The most entertaining game of the week. Back and forth play, beautiful passes and great defending. Can not fault either team in tactics or spirit. Govou played superbly on the left wing for Lyon and was the impetus for most attacks in the first half. I expect Anderson to sit for Man U in the return leg to give way for Tevez to start and for United to go to their more traditional 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 formation.
Arsenal (0) vs. A.C. Milan (0): Arsenal was the better team and controlled their play through the midfield, a surprise given the experience and class of Milan’s midfield. Arsenal created more chances, 7 shots on goal to only two for Milan, and were unfortunate to have several shots skim just wide of the net. The best chance was an Adebyor header in stoppage time that hit the crossbar. Adebyor has been one of the hottest strikers in the world the past month and had a clear look at net. The missed opportunity will haunt Arsenal if they fail in Milan. Arsenal’s youthful legs wore down Milan and they will certainly try to do the same at the San Siro.
Schalke (1) vs. Porto (0) and Fenerbache (3) vs. Sevilla: These games were not available at The Rover, I did not watch them, so consequently have no comment on these games.
Olympiacos (0) vs. Chelsea (0): This was one of the more boring matches I have seen in a long time. There was plenty of rain in the air and on the field, so one could surmise a team from England should be able to play in these conditions better than a team from Greece. Wrong, Chelsea lacked movement and pace the entire contest. Drogba had two chances, a strike in the first half that was saved, and then a header late in the second half that he should have done better with, sailing the ball over the bar. Olympiacos settled for counter attacks most of the contest, getting numbers in their favor a few times, but failing to get any thing menacing on net.
Liverpool (2) vs. Inter (0): As much as I hate Matterazzi, he did not deserve either yellow card that led to his dismissal early in the first half. Maybe his reputation preceded him, maybe the ref has a grudge, I do not know, but I am certain that the referee will face questioning after two awful calls that looks to have decided this contest before the return leg to Milan. A matchup of this magnitude is not for the referee to decide, but for the talent of the players on the pitch. After Materazzi’s dismissal , Liverpool controlled tempo but did not have any real chances at net. After half time, Inter seemed to get some momentum and threatened with a few shots and corners. Liverpool regained control at about the 75 minute mark and continued to pepper the Inter defense to no avail until Kuyt’s breakthrough at the 85 minute mark. Gerrard added a second goal a few minutes later. Young Dutch international Ryan Babel had a solid game. Liverpool uses him on the outside, but his physical qualities seem more suited for striker. Babel is fast, tall, has excellent skill with the ball at his feet and a relentless motor.
I have argued against the away goals rule for tie breaks. Let us say Inter beats Liverpool 3-1 in Milan with no dismissals. Under the away goals rule, Liverpool would advance. Is this fair? Why is 2-0 in an 11 on 10 game more impressive that a 3-1 full strength match? Uefa needs to improve the tie break rule. Away goals is garbage. In the event of a tie after two games, the teams should go to two 15-minute halves followed by penalty kicks if necessary.
Celtic (2) vs. Barca (3): Celtic looked lost against Barcelona’s movement and give-and-go passing. I am sure that Celtic do not see an offense with such movement and understanding of space in the Scottish league. Celtic played with a lot of heart but were simply out classed for most of the contest. Henry, in my opinion, is the best pure striker in the world when fit, and had a beautiful goal in the second half. From the corner of the penalty box area, Henry was given about two yards of space by the defender who worried against Henry’s quickness to goal. Henry simply curled a shot around the defense and goalie for the score. Magnificent goal that he made look effortless. Ronaldinho looked motivated and Messi was world class.
Celtic still has a chance and would be wise to go all out on offense. Some coaches would say, “let’s play our normal game and see what happens”. Well, Celtic tried that and should be down 5-2 rather than the 3-2 they are down. Abandon the 4-4-2 and go with more of an attack friendly 4-3-3 or 4-1-2-1-2.
Lyon (1) vs. Man United (1): The most entertaining game of the week. Back and forth play, beautiful passes and great defending. Can not fault either team in tactics or spirit. Govou played superbly on the left wing for Lyon and was the impetus for most attacks in the first half. I expect Anderson to sit for Man U in the return leg to give way for Tevez to start and for United to go to their more traditional 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1 formation.
Arsenal (0) vs. A.C. Milan (0): Arsenal was the better team and controlled their play through the midfield, a surprise given the experience and class of Milan’s midfield. Arsenal created more chances, 7 shots on goal to only two for Milan, and were unfortunate to have several shots skim just wide of the net. The best chance was an Adebyor header in stoppage time that hit the crossbar. Adebyor has been one of the hottest strikers in the world the past month and had a clear look at net. The missed opportunity will haunt Arsenal if they fail in Milan. Arsenal’s youthful legs wore down Milan and they will certainly try to do the same at the San Siro.
Schalke (1) vs. Porto (0) and Fenerbache (3) vs. Sevilla: These games were not available at The Rover, I did not watch them, so consequently have no comment on these games.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Champion League Knockout Stage, Wednesday Games
Celtic vs. Barcelona: Barca better watch out going into Scotland. For all their offensive firepower, Barca lacks defensive play from their midfielders and forwards. Deco husles back, but one can not expect much defensive presence from Ronaldinho, Messi and especially Henry. Celtic is a tough out in this competition, ask A.C Milan who had a difficult time last season against Celtic in the knockout stage and lost to them this season in Scotland this season during group stage. Celtic will be physical, play smart and with the home crowd, is fully capable of a positive result, a win or draw, heading into the second leg in Spain.
Lyon vs. Manchester United: United is an elite club team. Tevez and Rooney are playing wonderfully together, the midfield is strong led by Ronaldo, Scholes and Hargreaves. I think Vidic is a bit over-rated in the back, but he is helped by talented men around him. Lyon was devastated by injuries earlier in the year. A testament to their fortitude and heart, the 6 time defending French champion has reached Champion’s league knockout stage again, along with their perch atop Ligue 1 in France. Coupet, injured at the season’s start, is back in form. The ever present Juninho, Brazil’s most underrated player, will be the catalyst for an offense that bores defenses into mistakes and goals. Man U is the better team and should advance, especially with the quality of coach as Sir Alex Fergusen. However, the pain of elimination from Europe’s best club tournament has befallen Lyon on a continual basis and those memories will fuel their fight to topple Man U.
Arsenal vs. A.C. Milan: Arsenal is young, flashy and have had great success so far this season. There is no doubt oftheirt ability, but I think their Champion’s League run ends in this round. Milan is battle tested, have class throughout the pitch and know how to win this tournament. For all of Arsenal’a talent at midfield, they may lack the mental toughness to deal with the constant physical play of Gattusso, Ambrosinni and Seedorf. Then you have Pirlo, Kaka and Pato on attack with a bench that includes Inzaghi, Gilardino and youngster Alberto Paloschi. I will be rooting for the Crozillian and Arsenal, but they have their hands full with a Milan team that started the season slow, but has picked up the class of play to their form of last season.
Fenerbache vs. Sevilla: Don’t know much about either team. If I was betting on this matchup , I would bet that Turkish side Fenerbache advances. Why? Because few teams are able to go into Turkey and get a decision. Fenerbache has fought long and hard to make it to the knockout stage after years of group stage frustration and will not let this opportunity go by hastily.
Lyon vs. Manchester United: United is an elite club team. Tevez and Rooney are playing wonderfully together, the midfield is strong led by Ronaldo, Scholes and Hargreaves. I think Vidic is a bit over-rated in the back, but he is helped by talented men around him. Lyon was devastated by injuries earlier in the year. A testament to their fortitude and heart, the 6 time defending French champion has reached Champion’s league knockout stage again, along with their perch atop Ligue 1 in France. Coupet, injured at the season’s start, is back in form. The ever present Juninho, Brazil’s most underrated player, will be the catalyst for an offense that bores defenses into mistakes and goals. Man U is the better team and should advance, especially with the quality of coach as Sir Alex Fergusen. However, the pain of elimination from Europe’s best club tournament has befallen Lyon on a continual basis and those memories will fuel their fight to topple Man U.
Arsenal vs. A.C. Milan: Arsenal is young, flashy and have had great success so far this season. There is no doubt oftheirt ability, but I think their Champion’s League run ends in this round. Milan is battle tested, have class throughout the pitch and know how to win this tournament. For all of Arsenal’a talent at midfield, they may lack the mental toughness to deal with the constant physical play of Gattusso, Ambrosinni and Seedorf. Then you have Pirlo, Kaka and Pato on attack with a bench that includes Inzaghi, Gilardino and youngster Alberto Paloschi. I will be rooting for the Crozillian and Arsenal, but they have their hands full with a Milan team that started the season slow, but has picked up the class of play to their form of last season.
Fenerbache vs. Sevilla: Don’t know much about either team. If I was betting on this matchup , I would bet that Turkish side Fenerbache advances. Why? Because few teams are able to go into Turkey and get a decision. Fenerbache has fought long and hard to make it to the knockout stage after years of group stage frustration and will not let this opportunity go by hastily.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Champion League Knockout Stage, Tuesday Games
FC Schalke vs. FC Porto: One problem with having cable rather than satellite TV is that not many soccer channels are offered on cable. My service offers Fox Soccer Channel, which shows European league matches from only England and Italy. Consequently, I have very little viewing experience of these two teams. I have watched both teams play during group stage matches, but those matches finished over two months ago. So, with that being said, here are my thoughts.
Porto have won 4 of the last 5 Portuguese league titles and currently reside in first place by a comfortable 10 points. Lisandro Lopez is having a fine season with 15 goals through 23 Portuguese and Champion’s League matches. Porto does employ one of my favorite players. Ricardo Quaresma is a Portuguese national team MF/FW who makes good things happen. He is an excellent passer from his natural midfield position and can move to FW when needed. His dribbling skills are awesome and he can take over any game. If he decided to play in Spain or England, his would be a household name.
For Schalke, this is their first trip into the knockout stage of Champion’s League play. I guess I’ll be rooting for Porto to win simply because I enjoy watching Quaresma play. If I was to throw some money on this matchup, I would go with the underdog, whomever that may be.
Roma vs Real Madrid: I wrote in an earlier post that the Final Four for the Champion’s League was going to be Roma, Real Madrid, Liverpool and either Man U or A.C. Milan. It’s going to break my heart that Roma or Real is going home early. Both teams have a lot of talent. Totti and Mancini will have the bulk of shots for Roma. They will be helped out by Mexes, Pizzarro, the playmaker De Rossi, a steal during the summer transfer window from Marseille Ludovic Giuly, and a favorite of mine, Simone Perrotta who is not getting the playing time he enjoyed last season. The problem I have with Roma this season is that they look too much for the beautiful goal set up by the perfect pass. The idea of shooting to see if something good comes out of it is a foreign idea to Roma. A potential problem for Roma may be fatigue. They are away to Juventus this Saturday in a huge game for second place in Seria A. They will likely play their 1st team for most of the game because second place in Seria A is guaranteed a spot in next season’s Champion’s League group stage.
Real Madrid is one of the hottest teams in the world right now and boasting an impressive group of strikers. Julio “The Beast” Baptista, Robinho, van Nistelrooy, and Raul can start for most any team in Europe and give Real an extremely deep and talented forward group that will keep putting pressure on Roma. MF Arjen Robben is playing well of late and German international MF Wesley Sneijder is the catalyst from the middle. The defense, led by the dominant Fabio Cannavaro, has given up only 18 goals in 23 league games.
Both teams are talented and battle tested, but Real Madrid is on a different class level than most teams in Europe at the moment. I will be rooting for Roma, and will put up a good fight, but in the end Real should move on to the final 8.
** The two above matchups were written on Thursday, Feb 14. Real Madrid MF Wesley Sneider has since suffered a rib injury that will sideline him for both Roma matches. Robinho is also doubtful for the first leg with an abdominal strain.
Olympiacos vs. Chelsea: Olympiacos have won the Greek League title 10 of the past 11 years. Domestic success is great, but energy, hope, money and confidence resides fully in Champion League play. They escaped a tough group with Real Madrid, Werder Bremen and Lazio to make it to the final 16. Most people would rather get the second leg at home, but in this case, I think it works to their advantage to be in Athens for the 1st leg against Chelsea. A friend of mine, Greek in heritage, has tried to get tickets to the match for some time now. He is well off with money, so no doubt would have given over $1000 for a ticket. The fact that he could not get a ticket is testament to the belief that Olympiacos has a team that can give Chelsea all they can handle and ultimately advance. The stadium in Athens will be a zoo at game time. Fireworks, flairs, fires in the stands and constant chanting will make it a tough place for Chelsea to play.
Chelsea has talent, no one can argue with this. My problem with Chelsea is that some of their supposed leaders, namely Lampard and Joe Cole, disappear in big matches. Frank Lampard and Joe Cole, for all their individual talent, fail to be tough or have meaningful presence in high pressure situations the past several years. A big question mark is also the ability of manager Avhaham Grant to lead Chelsea and make tactical adjustments in matches that carry the weight of Champion’s League play.
Chelsea will be put to a major test with this matchup. What Olympiacos lacks in talent will be made up in heart and tough football. Hard Tackles and intimidation will be constant. Chelsea’s best players, Essien, Drogba, Terry and Chech will probably lead Chelsea to the next round, especially if they go back to Stamford Bridge with a positive result from Athens. However, we have seen the Greeks win a Euro Cup through hard play and defense. It would not surprise me if Olympiacos get through with a bit of luck and hard play.
Liverpool vs. Inter Milan: Two heavyweights in club football get to beat up on one another. Inter is playing better heading into these games. This past weekend saw Liverpool fall out of the FA Cup with a disastrous home loss to second division Barnsley at Anfield. Liverpool is built for Champion’s League play, deep and with the ability to switch styles to exploit opponent weaknesses. Rafa Benitez is a fantastic manager who knows how to get his teams further along in tournaments. Inter is a solid team. Two time defending Seria A champions, they have given up only 13 goals in league play this season from 23 matches, while scoring 48. I picked Liverpool to win the Champion’s League this season, so I will be rooting for them, but my confidence is not very high.
A note on the away goal tie break rule. The away goals rule is a method of breaking ties in football when teams play each other twice, once at each team's home ground. By the away goals rule, the team that has scored more goals "away from home" will win if scores are otherwise tied. I hate this rule simply because two games are never equal. If Liverpool and Inter play to a 2-1 Liverpool win in Anfield and then a 1-0 Inter win in Milan, Inter would advance on “away goals”. Nonsense! What if the officiating was bad in one game and not the other? What if there was rain in one game and not the other? There are a myriad of reasons for two games to not be equal. In the event of a total goals tie after the second leg, the game should go to extra time for 30 minutes and then to penalty kicks.
Porto have won 4 of the last 5 Portuguese league titles and currently reside in first place by a comfortable 10 points. Lisandro Lopez is having a fine season with 15 goals through 23 Portuguese and Champion’s League matches. Porto does employ one of my favorite players. Ricardo Quaresma is a Portuguese national team MF/FW who makes good things happen. He is an excellent passer from his natural midfield position and can move to FW when needed. His dribbling skills are awesome and he can take over any game. If he decided to play in Spain or England, his would be a household name.
For Schalke, this is their first trip into the knockout stage of Champion’s League play. I guess I’ll be rooting for Porto to win simply because I enjoy watching Quaresma play. If I was to throw some money on this matchup, I would go with the underdog, whomever that may be.
Roma vs Real Madrid: I wrote in an earlier post that the Final Four for the Champion’s League was going to be Roma, Real Madrid, Liverpool and either Man U or A.C. Milan. It’s going to break my heart that Roma or Real is going home early. Both teams have a lot of talent. Totti and Mancini will have the bulk of shots for Roma. They will be helped out by Mexes, Pizzarro, the playmaker De Rossi, a steal during the summer transfer window from Marseille Ludovic Giuly, and a favorite of mine, Simone Perrotta who is not getting the playing time he enjoyed last season. The problem I have with Roma this season is that they look too much for the beautiful goal set up by the perfect pass. The idea of shooting to see if something good comes out of it is a foreign idea to Roma. A potential problem for Roma may be fatigue. They are away to Juventus this Saturday in a huge game for second place in Seria A. They will likely play their 1st team for most of the game because second place in Seria A is guaranteed a spot in next season’s Champion’s League group stage.
Real Madrid is one of the hottest teams in the world right now and boasting an impressive group of strikers. Julio “The Beast” Baptista, Robinho, van Nistelrooy, and Raul can start for most any team in Europe and give Real an extremely deep and talented forward group that will keep putting pressure on Roma. MF Arjen Robben is playing well of late and German international MF Wesley Sneijder is the catalyst from the middle. The defense, led by the dominant Fabio Cannavaro, has given up only 18 goals in 23 league games.
Both teams are talented and battle tested, but Real Madrid is on a different class level than most teams in Europe at the moment. I will be rooting for Roma, and will put up a good fight, but in the end Real should move on to the final 8.
** The two above matchups were written on Thursday, Feb 14. Real Madrid MF Wesley Sneider has since suffered a rib injury that will sideline him for both Roma matches. Robinho is also doubtful for the first leg with an abdominal strain.
Olympiacos vs. Chelsea: Olympiacos have won the Greek League title 10 of the past 11 years. Domestic success is great, but energy, hope, money and confidence resides fully in Champion League play. They escaped a tough group with Real Madrid, Werder Bremen and Lazio to make it to the final 16. Most people would rather get the second leg at home, but in this case, I think it works to their advantage to be in Athens for the 1st leg against Chelsea. A friend of mine, Greek in heritage, has tried to get tickets to the match for some time now. He is well off with money, so no doubt would have given over $1000 for a ticket. The fact that he could not get a ticket is testament to the belief that Olympiacos has a team that can give Chelsea all they can handle and ultimately advance. The stadium in Athens will be a zoo at game time. Fireworks, flairs, fires in the stands and constant chanting will make it a tough place for Chelsea to play.
Chelsea has talent, no one can argue with this. My problem with Chelsea is that some of their supposed leaders, namely Lampard and Joe Cole, disappear in big matches. Frank Lampard and Joe Cole, for all their individual talent, fail to be tough or have meaningful presence in high pressure situations the past several years. A big question mark is also the ability of manager Avhaham Grant to lead Chelsea and make tactical adjustments in matches that carry the weight of Champion’s League play.
Chelsea will be put to a major test with this matchup. What Olympiacos lacks in talent will be made up in heart and tough football. Hard Tackles and intimidation will be constant. Chelsea’s best players, Essien, Drogba, Terry and Chech will probably lead Chelsea to the next round, especially if they go back to Stamford Bridge with a positive result from Athens. However, we have seen the Greeks win a Euro Cup through hard play and defense. It would not surprise me if Olympiacos get through with a bit of luck and hard play.
Liverpool vs. Inter Milan: Two heavyweights in club football get to beat up on one another. Inter is playing better heading into these games. This past weekend saw Liverpool fall out of the FA Cup with a disastrous home loss to second division Barnsley at Anfield. Liverpool is built for Champion’s League play, deep and with the ability to switch styles to exploit opponent weaknesses. Rafa Benitez is a fantastic manager who knows how to get his teams further along in tournaments. Inter is a solid team. Two time defending Seria A champions, they have given up only 13 goals in league play this season from 23 matches, while scoring 48. I picked Liverpool to win the Champion’s League this season, so I will be rooting for them, but my confidence is not very high.
A note on the away goal tie break rule. The away goals rule is a method of breaking ties in football when teams play each other twice, once at each team's home ground. By the away goals rule, the team that has scored more goals "away from home" will win if scores are otherwise tied. I hate this rule simply because two games are never equal. If Liverpool and Inter play to a 2-1 Liverpool win in Anfield and then a 1-0 Inter win in Milan, Inter would advance on “away goals”. Nonsense! What if the officiating was bad in one game and not the other? What if there was rain in one game and not the other? There are a myriad of reasons for two games to not be equal. In the event of a total goals tie after the second leg, the game should go to extra time for 30 minutes and then to penalty kicks.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Super Bowl XLII Notes
You have to question why Belichick did not go for the 48 yard FG on 4th and 13 on the first drive of the second half. One of the announcers said that he was not surprised the Patriots were going for it because it was a habit of theirs through out the season. True, they did go for it on 4th down a lot this year, but how many of those attempts were from 13 yards? Get Gastowski out on the field for the attempt! He has never kicked a FG in a Super Bowl so why not give him a shot? Did Belichick really want Gastowski’s first Super Bowl FG attempt to be of the game winning variety? Gastowski was 3-5 during the regular season on FG beyond 40 yards with a long of 45. With the adrenalin, the atmosphere, the pressure of the Super Bowl, it would have been nice to see if the kid had a big kick in him.
The Giants had the benefit of two non calls. The first was when Toomer pushed off of the CB's helmet on a 38 yard completion in the 2nd Q. It was a beautiful sideline catch, but one that should have been called back. The drive ended in an INT off of Smith's hands. The second non call was on the Giant winning drive, when Manning escaped 4 Pats defenders and threw the pass that Tyree caught against his helmet. As Manning escaped pressure, there was a blatant hold on a Patriot defender trying to get at Manning for a second time.
The Giant defensive line dominated the best O-line in football and won the game for the Giants. Why did the patriots not give Brady a bit more support. There were times this season I remember the Patriots keeping a TE and a RB in pass support, block and flare out if need be, to assure Brady would not get touched and have an outlet if the downfield receivers were covered. That did not happen this game. The Pats trusted their O-line to a fault, reminiscent of the Giant-Eagle game from early in the year when the Giants registered double digit sacks.
Brady missed receivers. This never happens to him on the big stage, a clear testament to the pounding the Giants administered to Brady. He missed Moss on a seam route early in the 4th Q on 2nd and 7 from the NE 31 that looked like a TD if completed. He missed Moss on an easy 6 yard out for a TD. Brady threw high, short and wide of receivers, never getting into a rhythm.
The Giants deserved to win this game, no one can deny it, but on the game winning Giant drive, the Patriot defense dropped two interceptions. Asante Samuel did not look up in time on a sideline out route. The ball went over the receiver’s head and Samuel got both hands on the pass after jumping a second late. Rodney Harrison dropped an INT on the same drive when Manning threw into double coverage. The Patriot defense played well, but in the past would have come up with a game changing play, especially in the 4th Q of a big game.
I do not think Manning was the MVP of the game. He played well, true, but the award was most deserved by a defensive player. Justin Tuck ended the game with 5 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble. He lined up at DE, DT and LB and was constantly in the backfield putting pressure on Brady.
The Giants had the benefit of two non calls. The first was when Toomer pushed off of the CB's helmet on a 38 yard completion in the 2nd Q. It was a beautiful sideline catch, but one that should have been called back. The drive ended in an INT off of Smith's hands. The second non call was on the Giant winning drive, when Manning escaped 4 Pats defenders and threw the pass that Tyree caught against his helmet. As Manning escaped pressure, there was a blatant hold on a Patriot defender trying to get at Manning for a second time.
The Giant defensive line dominated the best O-line in football and won the game for the Giants. Why did the patriots not give Brady a bit more support. There were times this season I remember the Patriots keeping a TE and a RB in pass support, block and flare out if need be, to assure Brady would not get touched and have an outlet if the downfield receivers were covered. That did not happen this game. The Pats trusted their O-line to a fault, reminiscent of the Giant-Eagle game from early in the year when the Giants registered double digit sacks.
Brady missed receivers. This never happens to him on the big stage, a clear testament to the pounding the Giants administered to Brady. He missed Moss on a seam route early in the 4th Q on 2nd and 7 from the NE 31 that looked like a TD if completed. He missed Moss on an easy 6 yard out for a TD. Brady threw high, short and wide of receivers, never getting into a rhythm.
The Giants deserved to win this game, no one can deny it, but on the game winning Giant drive, the Patriot defense dropped two interceptions. Asante Samuel did not look up in time on a sideline out route. The ball went over the receiver’s head and Samuel got both hands on the pass after jumping a second late. Rodney Harrison dropped an INT on the same drive when Manning threw into double coverage. The Patriot defense played well, but in the past would have come up with a game changing play, especially in the 4th Q of a big game.
I do not think Manning was the MVP of the game. He played well, true, but the award was most deserved by a defensive player. Justin Tuck ended the game with 5 tackles, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble. He lined up at DE, DT and LB and was constantly in the backfield putting pressure on Brady.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Super Bowl XLII
Regular Season 114 – 116 – 9
Post Season 6 – 4 – 0
Patriots (-11.5) Giants
Giants offense vs Patriot defense: The Giants want to continue the same offensive strategy they have used the last four games, run the ball and have most/all of Manning’s passes travel less than 20 yards in the air. This approach is predicated on the Giant offensive line effectiveness against the Patriot front seven. New York’s O-line has played above expectations this season and has dominated defenses the past month. The Patriots have an experienced, talented and versatile front seven. Wilfork is a load at DT, a true run stuffer needed by all defenses to be effective, more so in the 3-4 scheme run by the Patriots. Richard Seymour may have lost a step after injury, but has the ability to take a game over with his combination of pass rushing and run stopping. He is also adept in pass coverage when the Pats zone blitz. The LB corps is where the Giants can attack with their passing game. Bruschi, Seau,Vrabel and Thomas are technically sound, sure tacklers and very smart, but aside from Thomas, are beatable in the passing game due to their lack of speed. Look for the Giants to exploit situations when Patriot LBs match up on slot receivers and RBs out of the back field. TE Kevin Boss has emerged after Shockey’s injury as a legit pass catcher and can be a factor in the passing attack if the Giants can establish the run. Plaxico Burress is a mismatch for most CBs in the league. Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel are both good CBs, but if Plax is healthy and playing with emotion as he should be for the Super Bowl, he can continually beat the Patriot secondary. Amani Toomer is a viable target, as consistent a WR as the Giants have ever had, and Steve Smith has made a handful of big plays this post season. New York will move the ball on the Patriots, the key will be to score TDs . Apparent from the divisional round and conference championship games, FGs will not beat the Patriots.
Patriot offense vs. Giant defense: Warm weather bodes well for Brady and the passing attack, but how much will they throw? Will they go back to the offensive strategy of bombs away that was so awe inspiring the first half of the year, or stay with the more balanced, more conservative approach spearheaded by a very talented Laurence Maroney? The past month or so has seen the Patriots shift to more of a running game. Was it to keep Brady, Moss and Welker healthy, to keep passing plays off of film for analysis, to help move the ball in adverse weather, to help out a veteran defense by controlling clock? Not sure why Belichick changed offensive tempo, but if the Pats are planning to go pass happy for the Super Bowl, it will be tougher than people think to simply turn up the dial and revert to offensive tempo from the first half of the season. Regardless what game-plan the Patriots hope to employ, the fate of their offensive success and the balance of this game will fall on the match up between the Patriot offensive line and the Giant front seven. As a unit, the Patriot offensive line is the best in the NFL. They are smart, athletic, always moving and most importantly, they play hard until the whistle sounds. This last point has raised questions about the Patriot O-line playing dirty and administering cheap shots. The Giants boast an impressive pass rush without the need for blitzing. The Giant front four is very capable of getting to the QB. If the D-line fails to get pressure, then the Giants will have to start blitzing in order to pressure Brady, but against Brady, blitzes usually fail to work because he is the best in the NFL at picking up the hot route on blitz packages. The Giant secondary is not a very strong unit and if Brady gets time, will destroy them.
Special Teams: The Giants will need a few big special team plays if they are to beat the Pats, but more importantly, must not give up anything big. The Giants must avoid giving the Pats a short field. In regards to place kickers, I see the Giants with an advantage. New England’s Gastkowski has yet to kick a FG with all the pressure of the game on his shoulders and the Super Bowl is not the setting ideal for testing a kicker’s mettle. Tynes had his glory kick happen in the championship game. It is my feeling that the distance actually helped him hit the FG. After missing two makeable FGs in regulation, the 47 yard attempt in overtime was a no pressure attempt. He could go out and give it his best because with the conditions, who really thought he was going to make that kick? If the attempt was from 35, I think he misses again.
Prediction: I have been going back and forth with who I like this game against the spread. The Patriots are fully capable of blowing the Giants out on Sunday. If the Giants running game falters and the game falls on Manning’s shoulders, the Patriots win by 25. Mannning is playing well of late, but has yet to show he can win a game on his own. However, I do see the Giants moving the ball with a balanced attack. New York would love to see Jacobs and Bradshaw get 35 carries between them and Manning finish with 20 pass attempts. That scenario is recipe for Giant victory, but improbable. So what do I see happening? A competitive game for three quarters before the talent and experience of the Patriots takes over. Final score, Patriots 31 Giants 17.
Pick: Patriots (-11.5)
Post Season 6 – 4 – 0
Patriots (-11.5) Giants
Giants offense vs Patriot defense: The Giants want to continue the same offensive strategy they have used the last four games, run the ball and have most/all of Manning’s passes travel less than 20 yards in the air. This approach is predicated on the Giant offensive line effectiveness against the Patriot front seven. New York’s O-line has played above expectations this season and has dominated defenses the past month. The Patriots have an experienced, talented and versatile front seven. Wilfork is a load at DT, a true run stuffer needed by all defenses to be effective, more so in the 3-4 scheme run by the Patriots. Richard Seymour may have lost a step after injury, but has the ability to take a game over with his combination of pass rushing and run stopping. He is also adept in pass coverage when the Pats zone blitz. The LB corps is where the Giants can attack with their passing game. Bruschi, Seau,Vrabel and Thomas are technically sound, sure tacklers and very smart, but aside from Thomas, are beatable in the passing game due to their lack of speed. Look for the Giants to exploit situations when Patriot LBs match up on slot receivers and RBs out of the back field. TE Kevin Boss has emerged after Shockey’s injury as a legit pass catcher and can be a factor in the passing attack if the Giants can establish the run. Plaxico Burress is a mismatch for most CBs in the league. Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel are both good CBs, but if Plax is healthy and playing with emotion as he should be for the Super Bowl, he can continually beat the Patriot secondary. Amani Toomer is a viable target, as consistent a WR as the Giants have ever had, and Steve Smith has made a handful of big plays this post season. New York will move the ball on the Patriots, the key will be to score TDs . Apparent from the divisional round and conference championship games, FGs will not beat the Patriots.
Patriot offense vs. Giant defense: Warm weather bodes well for Brady and the passing attack, but how much will they throw? Will they go back to the offensive strategy of bombs away that was so awe inspiring the first half of the year, or stay with the more balanced, more conservative approach spearheaded by a very talented Laurence Maroney? The past month or so has seen the Patriots shift to more of a running game. Was it to keep Brady, Moss and Welker healthy, to keep passing plays off of film for analysis, to help move the ball in adverse weather, to help out a veteran defense by controlling clock? Not sure why Belichick changed offensive tempo, but if the Pats are planning to go pass happy for the Super Bowl, it will be tougher than people think to simply turn up the dial and revert to offensive tempo from the first half of the season. Regardless what game-plan the Patriots hope to employ, the fate of their offensive success and the balance of this game will fall on the match up between the Patriot offensive line and the Giant front seven. As a unit, the Patriot offensive line is the best in the NFL. They are smart, athletic, always moving and most importantly, they play hard until the whistle sounds. This last point has raised questions about the Patriot O-line playing dirty and administering cheap shots. The Giants boast an impressive pass rush without the need for blitzing. The Giant front four is very capable of getting to the QB. If the D-line fails to get pressure, then the Giants will have to start blitzing in order to pressure Brady, but against Brady, blitzes usually fail to work because he is the best in the NFL at picking up the hot route on blitz packages. The Giant secondary is not a very strong unit and if Brady gets time, will destroy them.
Special Teams: The Giants will need a few big special team plays if they are to beat the Pats, but more importantly, must not give up anything big. The Giants must avoid giving the Pats a short field. In regards to place kickers, I see the Giants with an advantage. New England’s Gastkowski has yet to kick a FG with all the pressure of the game on his shoulders and the Super Bowl is not the setting ideal for testing a kicker’s mettle. Tynes had his glory kick happen in the championship game. It is my feeling that the distance actually helped him hit the FG. After missing two makeable FGs in regulation, the 47 yard attempt in overtime was a no pressure attempt. He could go out and give it his best because with the conditions, who really thought he was going to make that kick? If the attempt was from 35, I think he misses again.
Prediction: I have been going back and forth with who I like this game against the spread. The Patriots are fully capable of blowing the Giants out on Sunday. If the Giants running game falters and the game falls on Manning’s shoulders, the Patriots win by 25. Mannning is playing well of late, but has yet to show he can win a game on his own. However, I do see the Giants moving the ball with a balanced attack. New York would love to see Jacobs and Bradshaw get 35 carries between them and Manning finish with 20 pass attempts. That scenario is recipe for Giant victory, but improbable. So what do I see happening? A competitive game for three quarters before the talent and experience of the Patriots takes over. Final score, Patriots 31 Giants 17.
Pick: Patriots (-11.5)
Friday, January 18, 2008
2007 NFL Conference Championship Sunday
Playoffs 5 – 3 – 0
Regular Season 114 – 116 - 9
PATRIOTS (-14) Chargers: Let’s recap a few of my thoughts on how to beat the Patriots. In order to beat the Pats, the opponent must, have a high level of talent, play near flawless football for the entire 60 minutes, be able to pressure Brady without leaving receivers open, be able to control the clock and have the mentality that they can and will win the game. How many of these attributes can be contributed to the Chargers?
Talent: Offensively, the Chargers have the best RB in football and an above average offensive line, an All Pro TE, an incredibly talented WR in Chambers, and a blossoming-in-the-playoffs WR Vincent Jackson. A big concern is if Phillip Rivers will play, but if not, Billy Volek is capable of playing well. Defensively, the Chargers have playmakers at every level. Louis Castillo is a stud at DE, Igor Olshansky is solid at the other end. The LBs are a very fast group led by Shawne Merriman. LOLB Shaun Phillips is having a great postseason. The Charger DBs are playing solid football right now with Antonio Cromartie and Quinten Jammer leading the group.
Coaching: To play flawless football, the players need to be near perfect, and for the players to be near perfect, the coaches have to get them into the right spots to make plays. I am not a big fan of Norv Turner, but to his and his coaching staff’s credit, the Chargers came from behind in the wild card round and then won on the road in Indi. The Charger play-calling last week was fantastic on both sides of the ball, the players were prepared for the Colts and the environment of the RCA Dome, and most importantly, never gave up. The pressure present at the start of the playoffs is off Turner and the Chargers now. They made it further that most people thought they would go and can play the game Sunday with a lot emotion and little worry of what pundits will say if they lose.
Getting to Brady: The Jags made the mistake of playing too much soft zone against the Pats last week. Brady destroys the umbrella zone, evident by his 26 of 28 showing and 3 TD performance. The Chargers must get to Brady, but at the same time have all receivers accounted for. Brady will hit the hot route every time. The Charger play mostly the 3-4 defense, so pressure will come from the LBs. This is the most important aspect of the game. If Brady gets his accustomed 6 Mississippi to throw, the Chargers will have no chance.
Mentality: The Chargers remember the Patriots dancing on their logo at the 50 yard line last year after the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego. The best revenge for that loss would beat to beat the Pats and destroy their perfect season. L.T. took last years loss the hardest and nothing short of a torn ligament in his knee will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were not overwhelmed in Indianapolis last week and will not be scared about playing the Pats this Sunday.
Outlook: I picked the Chargers at the beginning of the year to make the Super Bowl, but thought they were going to get crushed last week. There is no denying the Chargers have a resolve about them and a very strong sense of team. We all know what the Patriots can do, but one big play can change a game and the Chargers have shown a knack for making that big play over the last half of the season. If I was asked to pick the winner of this game, I would not pick the Chargers, but in terms of the spread, 14 points seems like a lot with all the emotion the Chargers carry with them into the game.
Pick: Chargers (+14)
PACKERS (-7.5) Giants: The best decision of last week’s Green Bay game was Mike McCarthy not benching Ryan Grant, even for a series, after two fumbles on his first three touches. How many coaches would have left him in there for the third series? The unsung hero’s of the Packers season is their offensive line. Favre and Grant get the accolades, but the O-line paves the way for them to operate. I am not taking anything away from Grant’s performance last week, but the holes opened up for him at times were such that he was not hit until he got to the second level. RT Mark Tauscher, a perennial All Pro, destroyed Patrick Kerney last week. The battle between the Green Bay O-line and the Giant front seven is the most crucial of all the matchups. Any yardage by Grant makes it easier for Favre to operate. Regardless of Grant’s performance on Sunday, the Giants have to get to Favre with their front four. Favre is capable of winning without the benefit of a running game so New York has to get pressure up front because the Giant CBs can not stay with Driver, Jennings and Jones for the entire sixty minutes.
Offensively, the Giants will try to do what they have tried to establish all season and have been very successful at the last 3 weeks. Get Jacobs and Bradshaw going to limit the downfield attempts by Manning. The Giant offensive line has played extremely well this season but will have to deal with two excellent linemen in DE Aaron Kampman and DT Corey Williams. The Green Bay defense is very fast at LB and have an above average secondary (What a game by Bigby last week). The last three weeks have seen Manning become a Phill Simms clone and the Giant coaching staff would like to see most of Manning’s throws this week be under 15 yards. Of course they will go for the occasional big play to loosen up the secondary, but most of Manning’s passes will be short, controlled, move the chains attempts to keep the clock moving and have their defense well rested. As a note, the most important part of the Dallas 22 play 11 minute drive last week for the Giants was that it happened at the end of the first half. The Giant defenders got about 25 minutes of real time to rest up.
There was very little rust in Favre last week and the offense picked up tremendously after being down 14-0 to Seattle. The Green Bay defense is a solid, fast group and the Packers have a better team from top to bottom. Is it a better team by 7.5 points over the Giants who are playing at a high level and with a ton of emotion? Tough to say, but if you throw in the advantage that Lambeau will give the Packers, I have to go with the home team.
Pick: Packers (-7.5)
Regular Season 114 – 116 - 9
PATRIOTS (-14) Chargers: Let’s recap a few of my thoughts on how to beat the Patriots. In order to beat the Pats, the opponent must, have a high level of talent, play near flawless football for the entire 60 minutes, be able to pressure Brady without leaving receivers open, be able to control the clock and have the mentality that they can and will win the game. How many of these attributes can be contributed to the Chargers?
Talent: Offensively, the Chargers have the best RB in football and an above average offensive line, an All Pro TE, an incredibly talented WR in Chambers, and a blossoming-in-the-playoffs WR Vincent Jackson. A big concern is if Phillip Rivers will play, but if not, Billy Volek is capable of playing well. Defensively, the Chargers have playmakers at every level. Louis Castillo is a stud at DE, Igor Olshansky is solid at the other end. The LBs are a very fast group led by Shawne Merriman. LOLB Shaun Phillips is having a great postseason. The Charger DBs are playing solid football right now with Antonio Cromartie and Quinten Jammer leading the group.
Coaching: To play flawless football, the players need to be near perfect, and for the players to be near perfect, the coaches have to get them into the right spots to make plays. I am not a big fan of Norv Turner, but to his and his coaching staff’s credit, the Chargers came from behind in the wild card round and then won on the road in Indi. The Charger play-calling last week was fantastic on both sides of the ball, the players were prepared for the Colts and the environment of the RCA Dome, and most importantly, never gave up. The pressure present at the start of the playoffs is off Turner and the Chargers now. They made it further that most people thought they would go and can play the game Sunday with a lot emotion and little worry of what pundits will say if they lose.
Getting to Brady: The Jags made the mistake of playing too much soft zone against the Pats last week. Brady destroys the umbrella zone, evident by his 26 of 28 showing and 3 TD performance. The Chargers must get to Brady, but at the same time have all receivers accounted for. Brady will hit the hot route every time. The Charger play mostly the 3-4 defense, so pressure will come from the LBs. This is the most important aspect of the game. If Brady gets his accustomed 6 Mississippi to throw, the Chargers will have no chance.
Mentality: The Chargers remember the Patriots dancing on their logo at the 50 yard line last year after the Patriots beat the Chargers in San Diego. The best revenge for that loss would beat to beat the Pats and destroy their perfect season. L.T. took last years loss the hardest and nothing short of a torn ligament in his knee will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were not overwhelmed in Indianapolis last week and will not be scared about playing the Pats this Sunday.
Outlook: I picked the Chargers at the beginning of the year to make the Super Bowl, but thought they were going to get crushed last week. There is no denying the Chargers have a resolve about them and a very strong sense of team. We all know what the Patriots can do, but one big play can change a game and the Chargers have shown a knack for making that big play over the last half of the season. If I was asked to pick the winner of this game, I would not pick the Chargers, but in terms of the spread, 14 points seems like a lot with all the emotion the Chargers carry with them into the game.
Pick: Chargers (+14)
PACKERS (-7.5) Giants: The best decision of last week’s Green Bay game was Mike McCarthy not benching Ryan Grant, even for a series, after two fumbles on his first three touches. How many coaches would have left him in there for the third series? The unsung hero’s of the Packers season is their offensive line. Favre and Grant get the accolades, but the O-line paves the way for them to operate. I am not taking anything away from Grant’s performance last week, but the holes opened up for him at times were such that he was not hit until he got to the second level. RT Mark Tauscher, a perennial All Pro, destroyed Patrick Kerney last week. The battle between the Green Bay O-line and the Giant front seven is the most crucial of all the matchups. Any yardage by Grant makes it easier for Favre to operate. Regardless of Grant’s performance on Sunday, the Giants have to get to Favre with their front four. Favre is capable of winning without the benefit of a running game so New York has to get pressure up front because the Giant CBs can not stay with Driver, Jennings and Jones for the entire sixty minutes.
Offensively, the Giants will try to do what they have tried to establish all season and have been very successful at the last 3 weeks. Get Jacobs and Bradshaw going to limit the downfield attempts by Manning. The Giant offensive line has played extremely well this season but will have to deal with two excellent linemen in DE Aaron Kampman and DT Corey Williams. The Green Bay defense is very fast at LB and have an above average secondary (What a game by Bigby last week). The last three weeks have seen Manning become a Phill Simms clone and the Giant coaching staff would like to see most of Manning’s throws this week be under 15 yards. Of course they will go for the occasional big play to loosen up the secondary, but most of Manning’s passes will be short, controlled, move the chains attempts to keep the clock moving and have their defense well rested. As a note, the most important part of the Dallas 22 play 11 minute drive last week for the Giants was that it happened at the end of the first half. The Giant defenders got about 25 minutes of real time to rest up.
There was very little rust in Favre last week and the offense picked up tremendously after being down 14-0 to Seattle. The Green Bay defense is a solid, fast group and the Packers have a better team from top to bottom. Is it a better team by 7.5 points over the Giants who are playing at a high level and with a ton of emotion? Tough to say, but if you throw in the advantage that Lambeau will give the Packers, I have to go with the home team.
Pick: Packers (-7.5)
Sunday, January 13, 2008
NFL Divisional Round, Sunday Games
DALLAS (-7) Giants: Tomo Romo takes a vacation and there are some that feel this is the worst action he could have taken with his offense struggling. It’s his off week and management gave him the green light to go to Mexico. If you had an off week and the money to travel, would you stay at home and prepare for the day you came back to work? He’s prepared for the Giants twice already this season and needed time away from football. This is exactly what the bye week is for. For the teams who have earned the right, they can take a week off and get totally away from the game, clear the mind and get back to work fresh the next week. Brett Favre did not go to Mexico, but I bet that he did not look at any film until this past week. You think Brady was watching film last week as he was spotted going out in New York with his girl friend?
Dallas is an elite team when their offense is clicking, but above average when the offense has struggled. I say this because the Cowboy defense is overrated and do not have the ability to win a game on their own. I feel DeMarcus Ware and Gregg Ellis are the best two players on the defense, after that, a lot of hype. Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry are decent, Roy Williams is a big hit safety, but is mediocre in pass coverage. Who on the Dallas D-line inspires confidence? Dallas will not win this game with their defense alone.
The Giants are on a high, no denying that. The Patriot game has infused this team with a lot of confidence, especially in Manning. In the Patriot game he looked in total control, in the Tampa game he looked Phill Simms esque, boringly efficient with a just move the chains mentality. It seems to me that Manning is most comfortable when he comes up to the line, looks over the defense and makes an audible. The Giants chances of winning depend on them running the ball with Jacobs and Bradshaw. However, where there was doubt early in the year if Manning can win important games, there is confidence now in Manning that he can.
The Giants defense is playing well, their offense is moving the ball, and there is total confidence in Tom Coughlin going into Sunday. The Cowboys offense will be better than it was in the last quarter of the regular season. I do not see this game as a blowout in either direction.
Pick: Giants (+7)
COLTS (-10) Chargers: LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football, and he can take over any game. If Dungy prepares his defense for the run and they are successful in stopping L.T., then the Charger offense will fall on the shoulders of Norv Turner’s ingenuity and Phillip River’s arm. Not very confident in that proposal, especially since Antonio Gates is probably out. Defensively the Chargers will not stop the Colt offense. I’m a big fan of Louis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie had a tremendous season and Shawn Merriman is a beast, but as a unit, the Charger defense will not stop the Colts with their full assortment of targets for Manning to throw to. I picked the Chargers to win the AFC in the preseason, but do not see them winning this game and will struggle to cover the spread.
Pick: Colts (-10)
Dallas is an elite team when their offense is clicking, but above average when the offense has struggled. I say this because the Cowboy defense is overrated and do not have the ability to win a game on their own. I feel DeMarcus Ware and Gregg Ellis are the best two players on the defense, after that, a lot of hype. Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry are decent, Roy Williams is a big hit safety, but is mediocre in pass coverage. Who on the Dallas D-line inspires confidence? Dallas will not win this game with their defense alone.
The Giants are on a high, no denying that. The Patriot game has infused this team with a lot of confidence, especially in Manning. In the Patriot game he looked in total control, in the Tampa game he looked Phill Simms esque, boringly efficient with a just move the chains mentality. It seems to me that Manning is most comfortable when he comes up to the line, looks over the defense and makes an audible. The Giants chances of winning depend on them running the ball with Jacobs and Bradshaw. However, where there was doubt early in the year if Manning can win important games, there is confidence now in Manning that he can.
The Giants defense is playing well, their offense is moving the ball, and there is total confidence in Tom Coughlin going into Sunday. The Cowboys offense will be better than it was in the last quarter of the regular season. I do not see this game as a blowout in either direction.
Pick: Giants (+7)
COLTS (-10) Chargers: LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football, and he can take over any game. If Dungy prepares his defense for the run and they are successful in stopping L.T., then the Charger offense will fall on the shoulders of Norv Turner’s ingenuity and Phillip River’s arm. Not very confident in that proposal, especially since Antonio Gates is probably out. Defensively the Chargers will not stop the Colt offense. I’m a big fan of Louis Castillo, Antonio Cromartie had a tremendous season and Shawn Merriman is a beast, but as a unit, the Charger defense will not stop the Colts with their full assortment of targets for Manning to throw to. I picked the Chargers to win the AFC in the preseason, but do not see them winning this game and will struggle to cover the spread.
Pick: Colts (-10)
Saturday, January 12, 2008
NFL Divisional Round, Saturday Games
PACKERS (-8) Seahawks: Did Seattle really deserve to win last week? What if Cooley, Moss and Randel El catch the balls they dropped all game? The missed FG? Seattle has a few playmakers on defense, but they were as a unit one step behind the Redskins last week until a few 4th Q mistakes by Todd Collins. Offensively the Seahawks are not quite right. The inability to run the ball has made Seattle a one dimensional team. During the season they were able to be one dimensional against average defenses, but in this game against an above average defense, one dimensional will not get it done. The Packers are led on defense by their two studs at LB. Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are both strong, extremely fast and have the ability to cover TEs and RBs when asked to. The DL is anchored by two pass rushing DE’s, Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. The Packer defensive backfield is average in my opinion. Al Harris is overrated and Charles Woodsen has lost a step. Don’t get me wrong, they are decent CBs, but they have both been exploited at times this season. The Packer offense had its epiphany when Ryan Grant emerged as a viable RB. The Packer can lean on Grant as the focal point of the offense, opening up play action and downfield strikes to Jennings and Driver. The Packers have lacked a consistent running game the prior two seasons and it has hurt Brett Favre’s stat line. Which Brett Favre will show up this week? Will it be the conservative short passes, take what the defense gives you, look deep only when available Brett Favre, or the force the ball into coverage and go deep on half my throws Brett Favre? I think the Packers will get a running game going, Favre will not force throws, Hasselbeck will make a few mistakes and home field will be an advantage.
Pick: Packers (-8)
PATRIOTS (-13.5) Jaguars: The few games the Patriots struggled to win have given a glimpse into how to beat the Patriots. Against the Colts we learned you need a team that has enough talent to keep up with the Patriots for 60 minutes, and you have to play at a high level for the entire game. Against the Eagles we learned that pressure helps in slowing down Tom Brady as long as all the receivers are covered by a defender. Blitzes are designed to get to the QB quickly but tend to leave a receiver open. The defense hopes the QB is not smart enough to read the blitz and hit the open/hot target. Against Brady, all the receivers must be accounted for when blitzing because Brady has shown countless times his ability to hit the hot route. Against Baltimore we learned that the Pats might not be great at stopping a determined running game. McGahee ran like a beast that night behind an offensive line that pushed the Patriot D-line around. A consistent running game that is moving the ball opens up play-action and keeps the Pats offense off the field. Against the Giants we learned that you need the right mentality to beat the Patriots. All week leading up to the Giant- Pats game, quotes from Giant players and coaches were along the lines of, “ we want to play the Patriots, we are not afraid of the Patriots, we will beat the Patriots”. The Giants played with confidence, a mentality of no fear. Jacksonville has a team capable of utilizing the above. The Jags have a physical defensive line that can get to the QB on its own. If they throw one or two more guys at Brady, there will still be enough defenders to cover all the Patriot receivers. The Jags are a team that has shown its ability to run and control clock the entire season. Fred Taylor is healthy and Jones Drew can change a game with one play. Del Rio will have the Jags ready and confident for the game. The Jaguars, who won in Pittsburgh twice in a month, will not be intimidated by the surroundings in New England. Del Rio will also not, I hope, change the game plans that have gotten the Jaguars to this game.
We all know what the Patriots can do on offense, so a 37- 17 final score is certainly possible, especially since Bellichick has had two weeks to prepare. My big concern is if the Jags have the talent level from top to bottom to match the Pats for the entire 60 minutes. If David Gerrard protects the ball and manages the game well, if Del Rio sticks with the game plan even if they fall behind early, if the Jags come to the game ready to play hard and with a we will win mentality, if these criteria are met, the Jags will cover the spread.
Pick: Jaguars (+13.5)
Pick: Packers (-8)
PATRIOTS (-13.5) Jaguars: The few games the Patriots struggled to win have given a glimpse into how to beat the Patriots. Against the Colts we learned you need a team that has enough talent to keep up with the Patriots for 60 minutes, and you have to play at a high level for the entire game. Against the Eagles we learned that pressure helps in slowing down Tom Brady as long as all the receivers are covered by a defender. Blitzes are designed to get to the QB quickly but tend to leave a receiver open. The defense hopes the QB is not smart enough to read the blitz and hit the open/hot target. Against Brady, all the receivers must be accounted for when blitzing because Brady has shown countless times his ability to hit the hot route. Against Baltimore we learned that the Pats might not be great at stopping a determined running game. McGahee ran like a beast that night behind an offensive line that pushed the Patriot D-line around. A consistent running game that is moving the ball opens up play-action and keeps the Pats offense off the field. Against the Giants we learned that you need the right mentality to beat the Patriots. All week leading up to the Giant- Pats game, quotes from Giant players and coaches were along the lines of, “ we want to play the Patriots, we are not afraid of the Patriots, we will beat the Patriots”. The Giants played with confidence, a mentality of no fear. Jacksonville has a team capable of utilizing the above. The Jags have a physical defensive line that can get to the QB on its own. If they throw one or two more guys at Brady, there will still be enough defenders to cover all the Patriot receivers. The Jags are a team that has shown its ability to run and control clock the entire season. Fred Taylor is healthy and Jones Drew can change a game with one play. Del Rio will have the Jags ready and confident for the game. The Jaguars, who won in Pittsburgh twice in a month, will not be intimidated by the surroundings in New England. Del Rio will also not, I hope, change the game plans that have gotten the Jaguars to this game.
We all know what the Patriots can do on offense, so a 37- 17 final score is certainly possible, especially since Bellichick has had two weeks to prepare. My big concern is if the Jags have the talent level from top to bottom to match the Pats for the entire 60 minutes. If David Gerrard protects the ball and manages the game well, if Del Rio sticks with the game plan even if they fall behind early, if the Jags come to the game ready to play hard and with a we will win mentality, if these criteria are met, the Jags will cover the spread.
Pick: Jaguars (+13.5)
Sunday, January 6, 2008
2007 NFL Wild Card Weekend, Sunday Games
BUCS (-3) Giants: Last week’s game against the Patriots has been described as a momentum boost for the Giants and a great way to end the season. Really? First and foremost is the Giants lost the game. Countless articles in New York papers about how big a momentum boost this game was for the Giants going into the playoffs failed to recognize that the Giants lost the game. More importantly, the Giants will probably be without three starters; Sam Madison who would have drawn the assignment of Joey Galloway, Kawika Mitchel who has been playing a solid LB this season, and Shaun O’hara, the Giant’s C. The O’Hara injury worries me the most for the Giants. Every 1st team practice, every play from scrimmage this season before this week has been between O’Hara and Manning. Blitz calls and assignment changes on the O-line are made mostly by the QB, but there are times the C must make reads and call out adjustments for the O-line. O’Hara will be missed most by the Giants if he does not play.
On offense the Giants must run Jacobs as often as they can. Manning was successful last week against the Pats, yes, but the Bucs have the best set of CB in the NFl with Buchanon, Barber and Kelly. They are ball hawks and have the luxury of safety help deep if they miss on a pick because of the mostly Cover 2 that Tampa runs on defense. Where the Bucs have struggled this season on defense is against the run and the Giants must go after that weakness to win. Offensively, the Bucs are a “do whatever we can to not mess this game up” team. A lot of Earnest Grahm and then some shots down field to Galloway and Hilliard. Garcia is a great QB for this system because of his decision making. He knows to take chances only when presented and has done a fantastic job his entire career of protecting the football. The Giants strength is their D-line and the Bucs will run some counter runs and traps to neutralize the Giant playmakers on the D-line. I am taking the home team that has been consistent a lot more than the Giants.
Pick: Tampa (-3)
CHARGERS (-10) Titans: Hypothetical question. If both Jeff Fischer and Norv Turner were given identical teams, and these teams played on a neutral field, who do you think would win? Jeff Fischer is by far the better coach and will have his team ready for the Chargers this week. A Titan win would not overly shock me. The Titans will pound White and Brown as much as they can, try to limit LT and then hope that they can make a play at the end to win the game. This sounds nice and good, but the Titans lack the talent to stay with the Chargers for a full 60 minutes. Offensively, the Chargers will be a run first team. This philosophy sounds like a no brainer with the best in the game as your running back, but as was the case early this season, Norv Turner made the Chargers a pass oriented team. Phillip Rivers is not a QB that can take over a game. He can make plays, yes, but those plays happen most after the run has been established. Defensively, the Chargers have Louis Castillo back at DE. One man can change the complexion of a defense and Castillo does that. His pass rushing abilities help the Chargers get to the QB without the need of blitzing. A true stud at DE, Castillo is also great against the run. Watch for him to be double-teamed constantly this game. I am taking the Chargers this game, even though taking a Norv Turner team giving over 9 points is very scary. LT will not let the Chargers lose this game, either QB for the Titans is not awe inspiring, and I feel that the talent level heavily favors the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers (-10)
On offense the Giants must run Jacobs as often as they can. Manning was successful last week against the Pats, yes, but the Bucs have the best set of CB in the NFl with Buchanon, Barber and Kelly. They are ball hawks and have the luxury of safety help deep if they miss on a pick because of the mostly Cover 2 that Tampa runs on defense. Where the Bucs have struggled this season on defense is against the run and the Giants must go after that weakness to win. Offensively, the Bucs are a “do whatever we can to not mess this game up” team. A lot of Earnest Grahm and then some shots down field to Galloway and Hilliard. Garcia is a great QB for this system because of his decision making. He knows to take chances only when presented and has done a fantastic job his entire career of protecting the football. The Giants strength is their D-line and the Bucs will run some counter runs and traps to neutralize the Giant playmakers on the D-line. I am taking the home team that has been consistent a lot more than the Giants.
Pick: Tampa (-3)
CHARGERS (-10) Titans: Hypothetical question. If both Jeff Fischer and Norv Turner were given identical teams, and these teams played on a neutral field, who do you think would win? Jeff Fischer is by far the better coach and will have his team ready for the Chargers this week. A Titan win would not overly shock me. The Titans will pound White and Brown as much as they can, try to limit LT and then hope that they can make a play at the end to win the game. This sounds nice and good, but the Titans lack the talent to stay with the Chargers for a full 60 minutes. Offensively, the Chargers will be a run first team. This philosophy sounds like a no brainer with the best in the game as your running back, but as was the case early this season, Norv Turner made the Chargers a pass oriented team. Phillip Rivers is not a QB that can take over a game. He can make plays, yes, but those plays happen most after the run has been established. Defensively, the Chargers have Louis Castillo back at DE. One man can change the complexion of a defense and Castillo does that. His pass rushing abilities help the Chargers get to the QB without the need of blitzing. A true stud at DE, Castillo is also great against the run. Watch for him to be double-teamed constantly this game. I am taking the Chargers this game, even though taking a Norv Turner team giving over 9 points is very scary. LT will not let the Chargers lose this game, either QB for the Titans is not awe inspiring, and I feel that the talent level heavily favors the Chargers.
Pick: Chargers (-10)
Friday, January 4, 2008
2007 NFL Wild Card Weekend, Saturday Games
SEATTLE (-3) Washington: Washington carries a 4 game winning streak and momentum into the game. Todd Collins is playing way above his 36 year old, career journeyman self. Joe Gibbs will certainly give Portis as many carries as possible to limit mistakes by Collins. Portis had a decent year stat wise, rushing for 1262 yards, but 563 of those yards came in 4 games. That leaves 699 yards over the other 12 games on 209 carries, or 3.3 yards a carry. Will the aging Washington O-line open up some running lanes against the Seattle front 7? Seattle’s defense has playmakers at every level. Comeback player of the year candidate DE Patrick Kerny led the team in sacks and forced fumbles with 14 and 5 respectively. The line backers are the strength of their defense and are led by ILB Lofa Tatupu and an extremely talented Julian Peterson at OLB. Julian Peterson has been a favorite of mine since his San Fran days and he makes any defense better and faster. The secondary is solid, nothing spectacular, led by CB Marcus Trufant. Where the Seahawks are vulnerable, and where the Redskins will try to run is inside against a mediocre DT corp. Offensively, Seattle is a better team with Mourice Morris in the game rather than Alexander. Alexander has shown tentativeness into the hole and a reluctance to be hit the entire season. I see Seattle going with what worked best this season, a pass first offense. The horror show a few weeks ago against the Panthers aside, I am taking the Seahawks. They are at home and have the better, more established QB.
Pick: Seattle (-3)
Jacksonville (-2.5) PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh looks very shaky on defense right now. Against a poor Baltimore offense, the Steeler first team defense was continually gashed by running plays, a bad sign considering the Jags will pound away at the Steeler D with Fred Taylor. From their final 4 regular season games against the Pats, Rams, Jags and Ravens, the Steelers have given up an average of 373 yards from scrimmage a game. This is a huge number for a team that prides itself on defense. Offensively, Najah Davenport is no where near the talent level of Willie Parker. However, Davenport is a bigger and more natural north/south runner, whose physical nature may suit the Steelers better in this game. Whatever Najah can give the Steelers will benefit Ben Rothlisberger. He’s had an MVP type season and the ability to win big games. His post season career boasts 12 total TDs against 8 interception with 5 of those INTs coming in his rookie year of 2004. In regards to Jacksonville I hope for one thing, that they stay true to themselves and the game plans that have netted them 11 wins. Jacksonville is the physically tougher team and Del Rio will have them mentally prepared for this road playoff game. Del Rio made the decision to start Gerrard this season and it has paid off handsomely. Gerrard is poised, has accuracy, an above average arm and rarely makes mistakes. I can definitely see him leading the Jags to a road playoff victory. But again, I hope that Jax stays true to their offensive(run first then play action)/defensive (tough man to man with a blitz sprinkled in) philosophies, that they don’t over-think themselves into bad play calls ruining a drive or a game. Jacksonville has been the better, more consistent team this season.
Pick: Jacksonville (-2.5)
Pick: Seattle (-3)
Jacksonville (-2.5) PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh looks very shaky on defense right now. Against a poor Baltimore offense, the Steeler first team defense was continually gashed by running plays, a bad sign considering the Jags will pound away at the Steeler D with Fred Taylor. From their final 4 regular season games against the Pats, Rams, Jags and Ravens, the Steelers have given up an average of 373 yards from scrimmage a game. This is a huge number for a team that prides itself on defense. Offensively, Najah Davenport is no where near the talent level of Willie Parker. However, Davenport is a bigger and more natural north/south runner, whose physical nature may suit the Steelers better in this game. Whatever Najah can give the Steelers will benefit Ben Rothlisberger. He’s had an MVP type season and the ability to win big games. His post season career boasts 12 total TDs against 8 interception with 5 of those INTs coming in his rookie year of 2004. In regards to Jacksonville I hope for one thing, that they stay true to themselves and the game plans that have netted them 11 wins. Jacksonville is the physically tougher team and Del Rio will have them mentally prepared for this road playoff game. Del Rio made the decision to start Gerrard this season and it has paid off handsomely. Gerrard is poised, has accuracy, an above average arm and rarely makes mistakes. I can definitely see him leading the Jags to a road playoff victory. But again, I hope that Jax stays true to their offensive(run first then play action)/defensive (tough man to man with a blitz sprinkled in) philosophies, that they don’t over-think themselves into bad play calls ruining a drive or a game. Jacksonville has been the better, more consistent team this season.
Pick: Jacksonville (-2.5)
Thursday, January 3, 2008
2007 NFL Awards
MVP
Candidates:
Brian Westbrook: Incredibly gifted player who makes all he does look effortless. No wasted motion. Led the NFL in yards from scrimmage. No running back in football meant more to their team than Westbrook meant to the Eagles.
Tom Brady: Set record for TD passes and led New England to undefeated regular
season. Led league in completion percentage, TDs and yards passing all while throwing only 8 interceptions.
David Gerrard: 18 TD passes vs. only 3 interceptions. Outstanding poise and decision making in leading Jacksonville to the playoffs. Playing in only 12 games will hurt his chances.
Randy Moss: Set NFL record for most TD receptions in a season with 23. A freakish athlete, because of his size, speed and hands, no player in the NFL can guard Moss one on one. He is a member of the two most prolific offenses in NFL history, the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and the 2007 New England Patriots.
Tony Romo: Led Dallas to the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs with 4211 yards passing and 36 TD passes. A couple of terrible games along with a lack of production in the final weeks of the season will hinder his chances.
Honorable mentions: Brett Favre, Ben Rothlisberger, Ladainian Tomlinson, Payton Manning.
Winner: Tom Brady. The numbers are way to extraordinary to give the nod to any other candidate especially considering that New England went undefeated.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR NOT NAMES TOM BRADY:
Candidates:
Randy Moss: See above
Brian Westbrook: See above
Ladainian Tomlinson: Best all round running back in the game. Passion illustrated in post game press conferences when he is brought to tears because of losing. May end up as the most decorated back in history.
Honorable mentions: Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Adrian Peterson, Tony Romo.
Winner: Randy Moss. Will go down as on of the top 5 WRs of all time and this is his finest season to date.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Jarred Allen: Led the NFL in sacks with 15.5 in only 14 games played. Only playmaker on the Chief’s defensive line, so he is always battling double teams and half back chip blocks. Incredible combination of strength and quickness. Caught two TD passes this season as well.
Patrick Willis: Led the NFL as a rookie in total tackles with 174 and solo tackles with an outstanding 140. Is already the heart and soul of the San Francisco defense.
DeMarcus Ware: Led the Cowboys in sacks and forced fumbles with 14 and 4 respectively. He physically dominates blockers on the run and has the speed to rush the QB from the outside or cover a TE on passing downs.
Bob Sanders: Arguable, he means more to his team on defense than does any other player. There is no doubt that he is an incredible talent and the heart of Indi’s defense, but the lack of sufficient statistics may keep him from winning the prize.
Honorable Mentions: Julian Peterson, Albert Haynsworth, Brian Urlacher, Antonio Cromartie, Mike Vrabel, Patrick Kearney.
Winner: DeMarcus Ware. No defensive player really stood out from all the others this season. I went with Ware because he is the best defensive player on the #1 seeded team in the NFC.
COACH OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Dick Juron: Buffalo was a tough team with Juron having his players believing they can win every week. Had an opportunity to make the playoffs with wins in the last few weeks of the year, an excellent achievement in the very tough AFC, but a lack of experienced talent ultimately did them in. The Bills were 2 last second field goals away from a 9 win season. Buffalo has a good young core of players and will build on the success of this season.
Bill Belichick: No matter how much talent is on a team, and New England has plenty, it is an outstanding accomplishment to go undefeated in the regular season. The Pats are as mentally strong and prepared as they are talented. All coaches preach a “we will take it game by game” mantra, but no coach is better at keeping his players prepared on a game by game basis as is Belichick.
Jon Gruden: The Bucs went from a 4 win season a year ago to the division title this season. Tampa has the #2 overall defense in the league and an offense that protects the ball, doing enough to win. Gruden is extremely good at managing a game, putting his players in the right opportunities to make plays and maybe most importantly, not making any bone headed play calls to lose a game. The + 15 turnover difference is a testament to this.
Romeo Crennell: I have blasted Crennel a few times in my blog, but when all is said and done, his Cleveland Browns team 10 games this season. He made all the important decisions, with the best decision being to trade Frye after week one and put Anderson in.
Tony Dungy: With all the injuries on both sides of the ball, Dungy still found a way to get his team 13 wins and into the playoffs for what seems the 50th time in a row. He will certainly be regarded as one of the finest head coaches to ever don a whistle when his time is up.
Honorable mentions: Jack Del-Rio, Jeff Fischer, Mike McCarthy, Joe Gibbs.
Winner: Bill Belichick. As much as I want to give the award to Jon Gruden, 16-0 just stands out too far for me not to give it the ringleader of a perfect season.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Marshawn Lynch: Extremely tough runner who was the focus of the Bills offense. Averaged over 85 yards a game and was 11th in the NFL with 1115 yards rushing.
Joe Thomas: Was best player on the Cleveland Brown offensive line that surprised many with their output this season.
Adrian Peterson: Second in the NFL in both rushing yards (1341) and rushing TDs (12). Set the NFL record for most rushing yards in a game with 296. Awesome combination of power, vision and speed.
Dwayne Bowe: Led all rookie WR in receiving yards, catches and TDs. Has the speed to be a deep threat, with the hands and size to be a possession receiver.
Winner: Adrian Peterson. Tempted to give the award to Joe Thomas, but Peterson’s record setting performance in November against the Chargers tilted the scales.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Gaines Adams: Led rookies in sacks with 6. Started the last 8 games and is now an important piece of Tampa’s #2 ranked defense.
David Harris: Registered 127 tackles and 5 sacks for the Jets. Seems to always be in on the tackle and has great instincts for the LB position.
Patrick Willis: Led the NFL as a rookie in total tackles with 174 and solo tackles with an outstanding 140. Had a 20 tackle game against Tampa in week 16. Is already the heart and soul of the San Francisco defense.
Jonathan Beason: Not much notoriety for Beason because of the poor showing Carolina had this season. Registered 140 tackles with an interception and one fumble recovery.
Honorable Mentions: LaRon Landry, Leon Hall, Reggie Nelson, Darrelle Revis.
Winner: Patrick Willis. Going to the Pro Bowl as a rookie and will probably go every year for a decade or so.
Candidates:
Brian Westbrook: Incredibly gifted player who makes all he does look effortless. No wasted motion. Led the NFL in yards from scrimmage. No running back in football meant more to their team than Westbrook meant to the Eagles.
Tom Brady: Set record for TD passes and led New England to undefeated regular
season. Led league in completion percentage, TDs and yards passing all while throwing only 8 interceptions.
David Gerrard: 18 TD passes vs. only 3 interceptions. Outstanding poise and decision making in leading Jacksonville to the playoffs. Playing in only 12 games will hurt his chances.
Randy Moss: Set NFL record for most TD receptions in a season with 23. A freakish athlete, because of his size, speed and hands, no player in the NFL can guard Moss one on one. He is a member of the two most prolific offenses in NFL history, the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and the 2007 New England Patriots.
Tony Romo: Led Dallas to the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs with 4211 yards passing and 36 TD passes. A couple of terrible games along with a lack of production in the final weeks of the season will hinder his chances.
Honorable mentions: Brett Favre, Ben Rothlisberger, Ladainian Tomlinson, Payton Manning.
Winner: Tom Brady. The numbers are way to extraordinary to give the nod to any other candidate especially considering that New England went undefeated.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR NOT NAMES TOM BRADY:
Candidates:
Randy Moss: See above
Brian Westbrook: See above
Ladainian Tomlinson: Best all round running back in the game. Passion illustrated in post game press conferences when he is brought to tears because of losing. May end up as the most decorated back in history.
Honorable mentions: Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Adrian Peterson, Tony Romo.
Winner: Randy Moss. Will go down as on of the top 5 WRs of all time and this is his finest season to date.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Jarred Allen: Led the NFL in sacks with 15.5 in only 14 games played. Only playmaker on the Chief’s defensive line, so he is always battling double teams and half back chip blocks. Incredible combination of strength and quickness. Caught two TD passes this season as well.
Patrick Willis: Led the NFL as a rookie in total tackles with 174 and solo tackles with an outstanding 140. Is already the heart and soul of the San Francisco defense.
DeMarcus Ware: Led the Cowboys in sacks and forced fumbles with 14 and 4 respectively. He physically dominates blockers on the run and has the speed to rush the QB from the outside or cover a TE on passing downs.
Bob Sanders: Arguable, he means more to his team on defense than does any other player. There is no doubt that he is an incredible talent and the heart of Indi’s defense, but the lack of sufficient statistics may keep him from winning the prize.
Honorable Mentions: Julian Peterson, Albert Haynsworth, Brian Urlacher, Antonio Cromartie, Mike Vrabel, Patrick Kearney.
Winner: DeMarcus Ware. No defensive player really stood out from all the others this season. I went with Ware because he is the best defensive player on the #1 seeded team in the NFC.
COACH OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Dick Juron: Buffalo was a tough team with Juron having his players believing they can win every week. Had an opportunity to make the playoffs with wins in the last few weeks of the year, an excellent achievement in the very tough AFC, but a lack of experienced talent ultimately did them in. The Bills were 2 last second field goals away from a 9 win season. Buffalo has a good young core of players and will build on the success of this season.
Bill Belichick: No matter how much talent is on a team, and New England has plenty, it is an outstanding accomplishment to go undefeated in the regular season. The Pats are as mentally strong and prepared as they are talented. All coaches preach a “we will take it game by game” mantra, but no coach is better at keeping his players prepared on a game by game basis as is Belichick.
Jon Gruden: The Bucs went from a 4 win season a year ago to the division title this season. Tampa has the #2 overall defense in the league and an offense that protects the ball, doing enough to win. Gruden is extremely good at managing a game, putting his players in the right opportunities to make plays and maybe most importantly, not making any bone headed play calls to lose a game. The + 15 turnover difference is a testament to this.
Romeo Crennell: I have blasted Crennel a few times in my blog, but when all is said and done, his Cleveland Browns team 10 games this season. He made all the important decisions, with the best decision being to trade Frye after week one and put Anderson in.
Tony Dungy: With all the injuries on both sides of the ball, Dungy still found a way to get his team 13 wins and into the playoffs for what seems the 50th time in a row. He will certainly be regarded as one of the finest head coaches to ever don a whistle when his time is up.
Honorable mentions: Jack Del-Rio, Jeff Fischer, Mike McCarthy, Joe Gibbs.
Winner: Bill Belichick. As much as I want to give the award to Jon Gruden, 16-0 just stands out too far for me not to give it the ringleader of a perfect season.
OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Marshawn Lynch: Extremely tough runner who was the focus of the Bills offense. Averaged over 85 yards a game and was 11th in the NFL with 1115 yards rushing.
Joe Thomas: Was best player on the Cleveland Brown offensive line that surprised many with their output this season.
Adrian Peterson: Second in the NFL in both rushing yards (1341) and rushing TDs (12). Set the NFL record for most rushing yards in a game with 296. Awesome combination of power, vision and speed.
Dwayne Bowe: Led all rookie WR in receiving yards, catches and TDs. Has the speed to be a deep threat, with the hands and size to be a possession receiver.
Winner: Adrian Peterson. Tempted to give the award to Joe Thomas, but Peterson’s record setting performance in November against the Chargers tilted the scales.
DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Candidates:
Gaines Adams: Led rookies in sacks with 6. Started the last 8 games and is now an important piece of Tampa’s #2 ranked defense.
David Harris: Registered 127 tackles and 5 sacks for the Jets. Seems to always be in on the tackle and has great instincts for the LB position.
Patrick Willis: Led the NFL as a rookie in total tackles with 174 and solo tackles with an outstanding 140. Had a 20 tackle game against Tampa in week 16. Is already the heart and soul of the San Francisco defense.
Jonathan Beason: Not much notoriety for Beason because of the poor showing Carolina had this season. Registered 140 tackles with an interception and one fumble recovery.
Honorable Mentions: LaRon Landry, Leon Hall, Reggie Nelson, Darrelle Revis.
Winner: Patrick Willis. Going to the Pro Bowl as a rookie and will probably go every year for a decade or so.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
NFL Week 17
Last Week 6 – 9 – 0
Season 114 – 116 – 9
Due to the nature of the NFL in it’s final week, I will not be making picks against the spread. Many teams will undoubtedly play their 2nd and even 3rd string personnel this week and there is no way for me to know who is playing or how long they will play. Here are some thought going into the final week of the NFL regular season.
The Giants need to look out for #1 and not worry themselves with beating the Patriots. Fifteen other weeks this year, teams have failed in beating the Pats and there is no good reason I have heard yet to warrant the Giants going full boar in hopes of derailing New England’s perfect season. With an undefeated regular season, the Pats must still win what will be two tough AFC playoff games and then the Super Bowl, assuming they make it that far. The Giants owe nothing to nobody but themselves and their playoff health. The thought of losing for the playoffs an injury prone Jacobs, a key O-line starter or a top defensive player is enough to convince me that the Giants should go with their second unit for most of the game and get ready for an underrated Buccaneer team next week. Furthermore, who really thinks the Giants will beat the Patriots with a full lineup anyway.
I would like to see the Jaguars play their first string for the first half in their game against Houston. I would sit Fred Taylor for the game because of his past muscle ailments. The Jaguars are in a grove, showing great offensive rhythm that they will need next week in the Wild Card round. Houston’s tough and fast defense will be a great warm-up for next week against their probable opponent, the Steelers.
Of the three teams, Washington, Minnesota and N.O., vying for the final NFC playoff spot, N.O would be the most entertaining and I will be rooting for them to make it in after starting 0-4.
Tony Dungy has a history of resting his starters when he knows his playoff fate. He also has learned that too much time away from game action can cause rust and lack of offensive rhythm. Do not be surprised if he keeps Manning and the 1st unit in for the first half with the exception of Addai sitting out the entire game. There is also motivation to keep a divisional opponent out of the playoffs, which will happen if Cleveland beats S.F. and the Titans lose to the Colts.
I am rooting for the Titans to make it over the Browns based on this: Romeo Crennel looks scared when the game is tight. Staying home last weekend, I got to watch Cleveland lose to Cincinnati and every time the camera panned over to Crennel, he looked nervous, yet expressionless. I do not see this guy having his team prepared for a road playoff game. Tennessee’s Fischer is a proven winner, a leader who has made his teams better with his coaching and will have his team ready to go next week if they make it there.
Herm Edwards is back at the Meadowlands. Big deal.
This could be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and I hope it is. This man gets no respect for doing so much in his career with so little to work with. Name me another QB who has been better than McNabb at bringing out the best in mediocre WRs. It is not a coincidence the year management gave him a competent WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. I can’t wait for Philly fans to clamor for a new QB for the next 5 years as their team disintegrates. Hopefully I am wrong and Kolb turns into a stud QB, but a talent like Mcnabb’s only comes around once in a while and Philly never game him the recognition he deserves.
Season 114 – 116 – 9
Due to the nature of the NFL in it’s final week, I will not be making picks against the spread. Many teams will undoubtedly play their 2nd and even 3rd string personnel this week and there is no way for me to know who is playing or how long they will play. Here are some thought going into the final week of the NFL regular season.
The Giants need to look out for #1 and not worry themselves with beating the Patriots. Fifteen other weeks this year, teams have failed in beating the Pats and there is no good reason I have heard yet to warrant the Giants going full boar in hopes of derailing New England’s perfect season. With an undefeated regular season, the Pats must still win what will be two tough AFC playoff games and then the Super Bowl, assuming they make it that far. The Giants owe nothing to nobody but themselves and their playoff health. The thought of losing for the playoffs an injury prone Jacobs, a key O-line starter or a top defensive player is enough to convince me that the Giants should go with their second unit for most of the game and get ready for an underrated Buccaneer team next week. Furthermore, who really thinks the Giants will beat the Patriots with a full lineup anyway.
I would like to see the Jaguars play their first string for the first half in their game against Houston. I would sit Fred Taylor for the game because of his past muscle ailments. The Jaguars are in a grove, showing great offensive rhythm that they will need next week in the Wild Card round. Houston’s tough and fast defense will be a great warm-up for next week against their probable opponent, the Steelers.
Of the three teams, Washington, Minnesota and N.O., vying for the final NFC playoff spot, N.O would be the most entertaining and I will be rooting for them to make it in after starting 0-4.
Tony Dungy has a history of resting his starters when he knows his playoff fate. He also has learned that too much time away from game action can cause rust and lack of offensive rhythm. Do not be surprised if he keeps Manning and the 1st unit in for the first half with the exception of Addai sitting out the entire game. There is also motivation to keep a divisional opponent out of the playoffs, which will happen if Cleveland beats S.F. and the Titans lose to the Colts.
I am rooting for the Titans to make it over the Browns based on this: Romeo Crennel looks scared when the game is tight. Staying home last weekend, I got to watch Cleveland lose to Cincinnati and every time the camera panned over to Crennel, he looked nervous, yet expressionless. I do not see this guy having his team prepared for a road playoff game. Tennessee’s Fischer is a proven winner, a leader who has made his teams better with his coaching and will have his team ready to go next week if they make it there.
Herm Edwards is back at the Meadowlands. Big deal.
This could be the last game for McNabb in Philadelphia and I hope it is. This man gets no respect for doing so much in his career with so little to work with. Name me another QB who has been better than McNabb at bringing out the best in mediocre WRs. It is not a coincidence the year management gave him a competent WR, the Eagles went to the Super Bowl. I can’t wait for Philly fans to clamor for a new QB for the next 5 years as their team disintegrates. Hopefully I am wrong and Kolb turns into a stud QB, but a talent like Mcnabb’s only comes around once in a while and Philly never game him the recognition he deserves.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
NFL Week 16 Picks
Last Week 9 – 7 – 0
Season 108 – 107 – 9
Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Post. HOME Team in CAPS.
Pittsburgh (-7) ST. LOUIS:
Pick: Steelers (-7)
Dallas (-13) CAROLINA:
Pick: Dallas (-13)
Cleveland (-2.5) CINNCINNATTI: This is a big game for Romeo Crennel. A lot of people wonder how good of a head coach he is and this is a game that the Browns must be well prepared for. Crennel is regarded as a defensive minded coach. Cincinnati, with their lousy record and bad year, still have a very capable offense and would love to keep an in-state division rival out of the playoffs. Crennel has to get the right game plan established to limit the Bengal playmakers and put his defensive players in the right positions to make plays. Cleveland will move the ball behind a determined and angry Jemal Lewis.
Pick: Cleveland (-2.5)
Green Bay (-8.5) CHICAGO: A lot of pride still left on the Chicago defensive side of the ball. However, injuries have made the talent level go down from elite to average. Ryan Grant is being a bully at running back, giving the Packers much needed balance heading into the playoffs. As long as Favre keeps with what has worked this season, that being a short, controlled passing attack, only throwing deep when it is there, the Pack should be able to move the ball. Green Bay is playing well on defense, but Al Harris does not deserve a Pro Bowl spot at CB. Antrell Rolle of Arizona has had a tremendous year and deserved a roster spot over Al Harris. Chicago is a horrible offensive football team right now. Spread seems about 2 points too high considering they are in Chicago, but Green Bay is still gunning for home field throughout the playoffs and seem well prepared every week.
Pick: Green Bay (-8.5)
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Houston: My heart is telling me Houston, but my mind is telling me Indi. I am going with Houston because this is their Super Bowl and they are playing well on both sides of the ball. Dungy is known to take the foot off the gas late in the season and the slowing down may start in the 2nd half of this game.
Pick: Houston (+7)
LIONS (-4.5) Chiefs: No gambler should come any where near this game. Two teams that are very inconsistent, with questionable coaching and both teams have probably thrown in the towel on the season. Detroit has more talent on offense and they are at home so I’ll take them, I guess.
Pick: Detroit (-4.5)
Giants (-2.5) BILLS: The Giant play- calling last week caused me to yell at the TV on a far too consistent basis. Example, it’s 22- 10, Giants have the ball at the Skins 20 yard line, early in the 4th Q. Jacobs has over 100 yards and the offensive line is moving the Skins d-line. Incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG were the next 4 plays. Awful. Manning put the ball in the air 51 times on a day that begged for Jacobs to run 35 times. Jacobs had 25 carries for 130 yards and should have had more. Will the Giants have the same approach this week in Buffalo? I don’t know and I do not care. Buffalo has been a tough team to beat the entire year and Dick Juron seems to have the players and the game plan ready every week, something that can not be said for the Giants and their coaching staff. Add in no Shockey and a hobbled Burress, the Giants are in trouble. Unless they give the ball to Jacobs a lot more than they put the ball in the air, the Giant playoff hopes will be in the balance next week against the Pats.
Pick: Bills (+2.5)
TITANS (-8.5) Jets: Young played a decent game last week, not doing anything spectacular, but more importantly, not doing anything to lose the game. The game plan for Tennessee will revolve around a ball control ground game. It will probably work, but watch how well MLB David Harris plays this game. The rookie out of Michigan is having a fine year and always seems to be in on the tackle. The Jets are not as bad as their record and I do not think they should be a 8.5 point underdog. However, there seems to be a play or two that change momentum in every game, and where those swings were going the Jet way last year, they seem to be going against them this year. The Titans are at home and still looking for a playoff birth.
Pick: Titans (-8.5)
PATRIOTS (-22) Dolphins: Tuna is coming to Miami!! Let’s see how long he hangs out. Bill Parcells loves leaving organizations before his contract is expired, but somehow gets a pass every time he does. From Wikipedia, “In 1992, Parcells made a handshake agreement to become head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the last minute, Parcells opted not to take the job. Parcells did not feel the situation was right for him at that time. Tampa Bay owner Hugh Culverhouse said, "I feel like I've been jilted at the altar." Parcells left the Patriots after disagreements with owner Robert Kraft; Parcells felt he did not have enough input into player personnel decisions.” He left the Cowboys after a good year in 2007 and could have been guiding them now. No one is sure why he did not come back with the Cowboys but it was probably money. Look, I think he is a good coach, however, he now has control of an entire organization regarding personnel and coaching hires, but has little experience with these responsibilities. Given his age and past record of leaving teams when things are not totally going his way, it will be interesting to see how long he stays.
Pick: Patriots (-22)
JAGUARS (-13) Raiders: I am not sure who replaces Willie Parker in the Pro Bowl, but it better be Fred Taylor. The jaguars are playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball and David Gerrard is having a fantastic season. He made one bad pass last week against the Steelers, a pick off early in the 4th Q. He has a strong, accurate arm, is poised in the pocket, and is the QB Jacksonville has been looking for for four years. Del Rio has the Jags believing they are an elite team and Jacksonville will continue to play that way against an inferior team this week.
Pick: Jags (-13)
SAINTS (-3) Eagles: I remember watching Marques Colston last season thinking, “he’s fast and has decent hands, but is he tough, will he make the catch over the middle as he is getting hit?” Colston has continuously made the tough catches this season and is blossoming into an elite WR. Drew Breese is making the other receivers around Colston into better targets than they really are, the same way Donovan McNabb made all the garbage Philly receivers better early in his career. New Orleans is lacking on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is clicking with a determined Aaron Stecker giving NO a between the tackle, north-south runner. New Orleans is at home and still looking at a playoff spot if things fall the right way.
Pick: NO (-3)
VIKINGS (-6.5) Redskins: Still don’t understand why Peterson is playing. He tears a ligament in his knee and it is deemed “minor”? The doctors know a lot more than I do, but I hope they are not playing around this young man’s future.
Pick: Vikings (-6.5)
CARDINALS (-10) Falcons: I officially announce my candidacy for the vacant Atlanta Falcon head coaching position. I’ll take the job at $150,000 a year for 5 years and I promise not to quit. When is the last time Arizona covered a 10 point spread as a favorite? When was the last time they were a 10 point favorite?
Pick: Falcons (+10)
SEAHAWKS (-11) Ravens: Shawn Alexander looks scared to get hit. All season he has looked pitiful and should not be a first string RB for this or any other team. Mourice Morris has shown toughness all season and deserves first team reps. Brian Billick officially lost his scrotum last weekend when he kicked the FG at the end of regulation instead of going for the TD from 2 feet out. I hope Troy Smith starts this game for Baltimore, he deserves the nod over a season long ineffective Kyle Boller.
Pick: Seahawks (-11)
Buccaneers (-5.5) 49RS: The Bucs are a division winner and need to beat up on a team looking towards next season.
Pick: Bucs (-5.5)
CHARGERS (-8.5) Broncos: I picked the Chargers as the AFC representative and I am sticking with it. If San Diego practices a run first then play-action offensive game plan, they can beat the Colts and the Patriots. Underrated DE Luis Castillo is close to being 100% and will give the Chargers defense a big boost when he gets back from an early season ankle injury.
Pick: Chargers (-8.5)
Season 108 – 107 – 9
Spreads courtesy of the Saturday New York Post. HOME Team in CAPS.
Pittsburgh (-7) ST. LOUIS:
Pick: Steelers (-7)
Dallas (-13) CAROLINA:
Pick: Dallas (-13)
Cleveland (-2.5) CINNCINNATTI: This is a big game for Romeo Crennel. A lot of people wonder how good of a head coach he is and this is a game that the Browns must be well prepared for. Crennel is regarded as a defensive minded coach. Cincinnati, with their lousy record and bad year, still have a very capable offense and would love to keep an in-state division rival out of the playoffs. Crennel has to get the right game plan established to limit the Bengal playmakers and put his defensive players in the right positions to make plays. Cleveland will move the ball behind a determined and angry Jemal Lewis.
Pick: Cleveland (-2.5)
Green Bay (-8.5) CHICAGO: A lot of pride still left on the Chicago defensive side of the ball. However, injuries have made the talent level go down from elite to average. Ryan Grant is being a bully at running back, giving the Packers much needed balance heading into the playoffs. As long as Favre keeps with what has worked this season, that being a short, controlled passing attack, only throwing deep when it is there, the Pack should be able to move the ball. Green Bay is playing well on defense, but Al Harris does not deserve a Pro Bowl spot at CB. Antrell Rolle of Arizona has had a tremendous year and deserved a roster spot over Al Harris. Chicago is a horrible offensive football team right now. Spread seems about 2 points too high considering they are in Chicago, but Green Bay is still gunning for home field throughout the playoffs and seem well prepared every week.
Pick: Green Bay (-8.5)
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Houston: My heart is telling me Houston, but my mind is telling me Indi. I am going with Houston because this is their Super Bowl and they are playing well on both sides of the ball. Dungy is known to take the foot off the gas late in the season and the slowing down may start in the 2nd half of this game.
Pick: Houston (+7)
LIONS (-4.5) Chiefs: No gambler should come any where near this game. Two teams that are very inconsistent, with questionable coaching and both teams have probably thrown in the towel on the season. Detroit has more talent on offense and they are at home so I’ll take them, I guess.
Pick: Detroit (-4.5)
Giants (-2.5) BILLS: The Giant play- calling last week caused me to yell at the TV on a far too consistent basis. Example, it’s 22- 10, Giants have the ball at the Skins 20 yard line, early in the 4th Q. Jacobs has over 100 yards and the offensive line is moving the Skins d-line. Incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, missed FG were the next 4 plays. Awful. Manning put the ball in the air 51 times on a day that begged for Jacobs to run 35 times. Jacobs had 25 carries for 130 yards and should have had more. Will the Giants have the same approach this week in Buffalo? I don’t know and I do not care. Buffalo has been a tough team to beat the entire year and Dick Juron seems to have the players and the game plan ready every week, something that can not be said for the Giants and their coaching staff. Add in no Shockey and a hobbled Burress, the Giants are in trouble. Unless they give the ball to Jacobs a lot more than they put the ball in the air, the Giant playoff hopes will be in the balance next week against the Pats.
Pick: Bills (+2.5)
TITANS (-8.5) Jets: Young played a decent game last week, not doing anything spectacular, but more importantly, not doing anything to lose the game. The game plan for Tennessee will revolve around a ball control ground game. It will probably work, but watch how well MLB David Harris plays this game. The rookie out of Michigan is having a fine year and always seems to be in on the tackle. The Jets are not as bad as their record and I do not think they should be a 8.5 point underdog. However, there seems to be a play or two that change momentum in every game, and where those swings were going the Jet way last year, they seem to be going against them this year. The Titans are at home and still looking for a playoff birth.
Pick: Titans (-8.5)
PATRIOTS (-22) Dolphins: Tuna is coming to Miami!! Let’s see how long he hangs out. Bill Parcells loves leaving organizations before his contract is expired, but somehow gets a pass every time he does. From Wikipedia, “In 1992, Parcells made a handshake agreement to become head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the last minute, Parcells opted not to take the job. Parcells did not feel the situation was right for him at that time. Tampa Bay owner Hugh Culverhouse said, "I feel like I've been jilted at the altar." Parcells left the Patriots after disagreements with owner Robert Kraft; Parcells felt he did not have enough input into player personnel decisions.” He left the Cowboys after a good year in 2007 and could have been guiding them now. No one is sure why he did not come back with the Cowboys but it was probably money. Look, I think he is a good coach, however, he now has control of an entire organization regarding personnel and coaching hires, but has little experience with these responsibilities. Given his age and past record of leaving teams when things are not totally going his way, it will be interesting to see how long he stays.
Pick: Patriots (-22)
JAGUARS (-13) Raiders: I am not sure who replaces Willie Parker in the Pro Bowl, but it better be Fred Taylor. The jaguars are playing at a very high level on both sides of the ball and David Gerrard is having a fantastic season. He made one bad pass last week against the Steelers, a pick off early in the 4th Q. He has a strong, accurate arm, is poised in the pocket, and is the QB Jacksonville has been looking for for four years. Del Rio has the Jags believing they are an elite team and Jacksonville will continue to play that way against an inferior team this week.
Pick: Jags (-13)
SAINTS (-3) Eagles: I remember watching Marques Colston last season thinking, “he’s fast and has decent hands, but is he tough, will he make the catch over the middle as he is getting hit?” Colston has continuously made the tough catches this season and is blossoming into an elite WR. Drew Breese is making the other receivers around Colston into better targets than they really are, the same way Donovan McNabb made all the garbage Philly receivers better early in his career. New Orleans is lacking on the defensive side of the ball, but their offense is clicking with a determined Aaron Stecker giving NO a between the tackle, north-south runner. New Orleans is at home and still looking at a playoff spot if things fall the right way.
Pick: NO (-3)
VIKINGS (-6.5) Redskins: Still don’t understand why Peterson is playing. He tears a ligament in his knee and it is deemed “minor”? The doctors know a lot more than I do, but I hope they are not playing around this young man’s future.
Pick: Vikings (-6.5)
CARDINALS (-10) Falcons: I officially announce my candidacy for the vacant Atlanta Falcon head coaching position. I’ll take the job at $150,000 a year for 5 years and I promise not to quit. When is the last time Arizona covered a 10 point spread as a favorite? When was the last time they were a 10 point favorite?
Pick: Falcons (+10)
SEAHAWKS (-11) Ravens: Shawn Alexander looks scared to get hit. All season he has looked pitiful and should not be a first string RB for this or any other team. Mourice Morris has shown toughness all season and deserves first team reps. Brian Billick officially lost his scrotum last weekend when he kicked the FG at the end of regulation instead of going for the TD from 2 feet out. I hope Troy Smith starts this game for Baltimore, he deserves the nod over a season long ineffective Kyle Boller.
Pick: Seahawks (-11)
Buccaneers (-5.5) 49RS: The Bucs are a division winner and need to beat up on a team looking towards next season.
Pick: Bucs (-5.5)
CHARGERS (-8.5) Broncos: I picked the Chargers as the AFC representative and I am sticking with it. If San Diego practices a run first then play-action offensive game plan, they can beat the Colts and the Patriots. Underrated DE Luis Castillo is close to being 100% and will give the Chargers defense a big boost when he gets back from an early season ankle injury.
Pick: Chargers (-8.5)
NFl Week 16 Saturday Night
Dallas (-10.5) CAROLINA: Dallas is vying for home field throughout the NFC playoffs so they must come into this game with a kill mentality. Romo had a stinker last week but his thumb injury contributed to some of his throwing problems. Romo participated fully in practice on Friday. To talk of his new girlfriend as a distraction is fodder for pundits with little to talk about. I am certain that last weekend was not the first game he had a hot girlfriend watching him play. Dallas will move the ball against Carolina. This is a must win, get playoff ready game for Dallas and have too much talent on offense for the Panthers to keep up with for 60 minutes.
Pick: Dallas (-10.5)
Pick: Dallas (-10.5)
Thursday, December 20, 2007
NFL Week 16 Thursday Night
Steelers (-7.5) RAMS: Pittsburgh needs to get their act together before the playoffs start. The offense was inconsistent and Ben Rothlisberger looked weak last week against the Jags until the 4th quarter. If not for a brutal Jaguar punt in the 2nd Q and bad play calling by Del Rio when they were up 22-7 in the 4th Q, the score would not have been as close as the final 29-22 tally. Polumalu played an incredible game last week. One play in particular stands out. Gerrard scrambled out of the pocket on 3rd down late in the 1st Q and appeared to be heading for a first down. Polumalu seemed to come from nowhere to stop Gerrard short of the 1st down with a perfect ankle tackle. The closing speed to Gerrard on the overhead replay was impressive. The Rams are not the pushovers they were from the beginning of the season so this is not an easy game to pick. Jackson has the ability to take a game over and Bulger can still get the ball to Holt and Bruce. Damn shame I can’t watch this game from the comfort of my couch.
Pick: Steelers (-7.5)
Pick: Steelers (-7.5)
Saturday, December 15, 2007
NFL Week 15 Picks
Spreads courtesy of the Friday New York Daily News. HOME Team in CAPS.
Last Week: 10 – 6 – 0
Season: 99 – 100 – 9
Broncos (-1) TEXANS:
Pick: Texans (+1)
Bengals (-8.5) 49ers: You figure that the Bengals should be able to move the ball on a depleted 49er defense. Does a score line of 27- 13 seem possible, I think so, but what makes me think twice about taking the Bengals is Frank Gore. Anyone who watched him tear apart the Cardinals a couple weeks back saw why this young man has such a bright future ahead of him. His power and speed is impressive and I fear that he could take this game over as he did against Arizona. Then I see the QB for the Niners is going to be Shaun Hill, a 6th year pro from Maryland who led them to the Orange Bowl and a #10 BCS ranking in 2001-2002 season. At a time in the NFL when un-drafted or under regarded QBs seem to be excelling, maybe it is Shaun Hill’s time. Why not, I’m going with the Niners. The game is on the NFL network, so unless you are already in a bar with the channel or if you have fantasy playoff implications on the game, who is going to go out of their way for a Niner- Bengal game on a Saturday night.
Pick: Niners (+8.5)
PATRIOTS (-23.5) Jets: There are 4 instances this year that I can think of off the top of my head where Mangini failed to trust his offensive line and Thomas Jones on a 4th and very short at or near mid-field. Opening game against the Pats on the very first drive of the season, week 2 against the Bills on the 1st or second Jet drive, against the Giants and last week against the Browns. There are probably more. To continuously deny faith in your line and RB leads to failure when your team is at short yard/goaline situations and a run is called for. Now look at the Pats. Time and time again this season Belichick has eschewed a punt or FG on 4th and short to go for the TD or 1st down. This instills confidence, poise and a “we will get the yardage needed” attitude that permeates through an offense and the team as a whole. Now, in regards to this game and the spread. We all know of spygate, the bad blood between the organizations and the tendency for the Pats to beat down their opponents without mercy. Funny thing is that I am taking the Jets. This is based on a forecast for miserable conditions Sunday in Gillette Stadium and I still feel that the Jets are a quality team even though their record is awful. Mangini needs to strap on a pair and coach to win, without fear of media scrutiny if he decides to go for the TD/1st down rather than kick a FG/punt.
Pick: Jets (+23.5)
GIANTS (-4.5) Redskins: At home, a playoff bound team has to beat an inferior opponent. The Giants need to come out and beat the Redskins down, not for anyone to say, “oh look, the Giants really gave it to the Skins”, but for a confidence boost to a team that has struggled at home. The Giants must also prepare for the playoffs by getting their game plan strait. Run until they can not and then play-action. The Giant offensive line is playing at a very high level and with three competent backs, a run first offense is the way to go.
Pick: Giants (-4.5)
SAINTS (-3.5) Cardinals: Interesting game. Warner back indoors on turf throwing to a merry-go-round of talented receivers, Breese playing very well going against an athletic Arizona defense and both teams still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Cool stuff. I am taking Breese and the Saints based on Aaron Stecker giving the Saints a decent running game and Breese really playing well the last few weeks. If Coach Payton calls a normal play in the 4th Q against the Bucs a few weeks back, rather than the reverse, the Saints would have playoff destiny in their own hands rather than needing a Minnesota loss or two during the final three weeks.
Pick: Saints (-3.5)
BUCS (-13.5) Falcons: When the going gets tough, the scared tuck tail and run, huh Bobby Patrino. So fake. If you were a friend of this guy, would you trust him. “I’ll pick you up at 9 AM. Serious, we’ll go golfing and then we’ll grab some lunch. Yeah, yeah, they know me there, but I’ll make reservations anyway”. You’ll be standing out on your porch at 10 AM still getting his voice mail. I hope whoever is coaching this team now gives Jerious Norewood the ball 20 times. A very talented ball player, Norewood needs to get more than the 6-8 touches a game he has been getting. They named him the starter last week, was in there for the first play of the game, and then was taken out for the next 3 series’. The Bucs are a good team with Garcia in the lineup. He is expected to start so I will take the Bucs even though this is a too high of a spread. I would have guessed 9.5.
Pick: Bucs (-13.5)
Ravens (-3.5) DOLPHINS: In the name of Dan Marino, win a game. I am certain if the Dolphins asked Marino to start the last 3 games of the season he would. Someone explain to me why Kyle Boller is starting over Troy Smith in Baltimore? Smith came in at the end of last week’s Colt debacle and I said to myself, “where has this guy been all season”.
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)
BROWNS (-5.5) Bills: Playoff feel to this game. The Bills match up well on defense with the Brown playmakers. Terrence McGee is an underrated CB and will match up with Braylon Edwards. Strong side LB Angelo Crowell will try to contain Kellen Winslow who is playing at a very high level this season. If Crowell holds him to 80 yards or less it will be a good day. If the Bills can stop Jamal Lewis to 100 yards or less, they win the game. Buffalo has a toughness about them that has fueled their winning record. They do not get fazed by the opponent and have Marshawn Lynch back to get them going on offense. Trent Edwards has played well the last couple of weeks and seems to have a good amount of poise in the pocket. Browns have yet to develop a killer instinct which almost hurt them last week against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)
Packers (-10) RAMS: The Packers are a better team but the spread seems a bit high considering the Rams are starting Bulger and are a veteran team at home, playing for pride and some kind of redemption for this awful season.
Pick: Rams (+10)
STEELERS (-3.5) Jaguars: The Steelers have not impressed me as much as their record might dictate. Not sold on the Jaguars entering the season, my mind has changed the last 5 weeks or so. Gerrard is playing at a very high level and Fred Taylor looks young running the ball. Fred Taylor the most underrated back of my generation. The Jaguars are the tougher team and have a good bit of momentum going into this game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)
Seahawks (-7.5) PANTHERS: The Panthers are a very bad team and should not pose a threat to Seattle this week. Seattle, with a pass first game plan, has started clicking on offense. They will need to run the ball better in the playoffs to advance, especially when the weather is not conducive to throwing. This is a good game get Alexander some stats and a confidence boost. Alexander looks very hesitant at the line and seems to be avoiding contact. Morris has been the better runner this season.
Pick: Seattle (-7.5)
Titans (-4) CHIEFS: If the Titans are serious about the playoffs, a win in KC has to be accomplished. The Titans are the better team with a better coach. A concern for Tennessee has to be the inconsistent play of Vince Young. He looked real good against the Texans two weeks ago, but played a poor game last week against the Chargers. He must play well the next 3 weeks for the Titans to make the playoffs. These three games will be test of Vince Young’s mettle early in his career.
Pick: Titans (-4)
Colts (-10.5) RAIDERS: Payton Manning is really starting to connect with Anthony Gonzalez , who has picked up on their complicated offense very quickly. This is a great development for the playoffs. When Marvin Harrison comes back, it will give Manning four viable options to throw to: Wayne, Harrison, Clark and Gonzalez. Indi is too much team for the Raiders to handle and this should be a walk over for the Colts. Coach Kiffen, can we watch Russel in an expanded role the last three weeks?
CHARGERS (-10) Lions: It’s really not that hard to play call for the Chargers. Run, Run, Run, Run, play-action, run, run, run, play-action, run, run, run, run, play-action. Norv, you have the best back in football with a competent back-up and a very good O-line, run the ball. I think this line is way too high, but after last week’s awful loss to the Cowboys, the Lions may be ready to give up.
Pick: Chargers (-10)
COWBOYS (-10.5) Eagles: The Cowboys have too many weapons for any defense to handle. Witten is a mismatch against the Eagle LBs and T.O. will be fired up. Jones and Barber will be able to run the ball on the Eagles. The question is will the Eagles score enough to cover? Even with Westbrook playing at an MVP level, I do not see the Eagles keeping up with the Cowboys in Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)
VIKINGS (-10) Chicago: Is this really the spread? Have the Bears fallen from grace this fast? Are the Vikings this good? The line-makers know more than me.
Pick: Vikings (-10)
Last Week: 10 – 6 – 0
Season: 99 – 100 – 9
Broncos (-1) TEXANS:
Pick: Texans (+1)
Bengals (-8.5) 49ers: You figure that the Bengals should be able to move the ball on a depleted 49er defense. Does a score line of 27- 13 seem possible, I think so, but what makes me think twice about taking the Bengals is Frank Gore. Anyone who watched him tear apart the Cardinals a couple weeks back saw why this young man has such a bright future ahead of him. His power and speed is impressive and I fear that he could take this game over as he did against Arizona. Then I see the QB for the Niners is going to be Shaun Hill, a 6th year pro from Maryland who led them to the Orange Bowl and a #10 BCS ranking in 2001-2002 season. At a time in the NFL when un-drafted or under regarded QBs seem to be excelling, maybe it is Shaun Hill’s time. Why not, I’m going with the Niners. The game is on the NFL network, so unless you are already in a bar with the channel or if you have fantasy playoff implications on the game, who is going to go out of their way for a Niner- Bengal game on a Saturday night.
Pick: Niners (+8.5)
PATRIOTS (-23.5) Jets: There are 4 instances this year that I can think of off the top of my head where Mangini failed to trust his offensive line and Thomas Jones on a 4th and very short at or near mid-field. Opening game against the Pats on the very first drive of the season, week 2 against the Bills on the 1st or second Jet drive, against the Giants and last week against the Browns. There are probably more. To continuously deny faith in your line and RB leads to failure when your team is at short yard/goaline situations and a run is called for. Now look at the Pats. Time and time again this season Belichick has eschewed a punt or FG on 4th and short to go for the TD or 1st down. This instills confidence, poise and a “we will get the yardage needed” attitude that permeates through an offense and the team as a whole. Now, in regards to this game and the spread. We all know of spygate, the bad blood between the organizations and the tendency for the Pats to beat down their opponents without mercy. Funny thing is that I am taking the Jets. This is based on a forecast for miserable conditions Sunday in Gillette Stadium and I still feel that the Jets are a quality team even though their record is awful. Mangini needs to strap on a pair and coach to win, without fear of media scrutiny if he decides to go for the TD/1st down rather than kick a FG/punt.
Pick: Jets (+23.5)
GIANTS (-4.5) Redskins: At home, a playoff bound team has to beat an inferior opponent. The Giants need to come out and beat the Redskins down, not for anyone to say, “oh look, the Giants really gave it to the Skins”, but for a confidence boost to a team that has struggled at home. The Giants must also prepare for the playoffs by getting their game plan strait. Run until they can not and then play-action. The Giant offensive line is playing at a very high level and with three competent backs, a run first offense is the way to go.
Pick: Giants (-4.5)
SAINTS (-3.5) Cardinals: Interesting game. Warner back indoors on turf throwing to a merry-go-round of talented receivers, Breese playing very well going against an athletic Arizona defense and both teams still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Cool stuff. I am taking Breese and the Saints based on Aaron Stecker giving the Saints a decent running game and Breese really playing well the last few weeks. If Coach Payton calls a normal play in the 4th Q against the Bucs a few weeks back, rather than the reverse, the Saints would have playoff destiny in their own hands rather than needing a Minnesota loss or two during the final three weeks.
Pick: Saints (-3.5)
BUCS (-13.5) Falcons: When the going gets tough, the scared tuck tail and run, huh Bobby Patrino. So fake. If you were a friend of this guy, would you trust him. “I’ll pick you up at 9 AM. Serious, we’ll go golfing and then we’ll grab some lunch. Yeah, yeah, they know me there, but I’ll make reservations anyway”. You’ll be standing out on your porch at 10 AM still getting his voice mail. I hope whoever is coaching this team now gives Jerious Norewood the ball 20 times. A very talented ball player, Norewood needs to get more than the 6-8 touches a game he has been getting. They named him the starter last week, was in there for the first play of the game, and then was taken out for the next 3 series’. The Bucs are a good team with Garcia in the lineup. He is expected to start so I will take the Bucs even though this is a too high of a spread. I would have guessed 9.5.
Pick: Bucs (-13.5)
Ravens (-3.5) DOLPHINS: In the name of Dan Marino, win a game. I am certain if the Dolphins asked Marino to start the last 3 games of the season he would. Someone explain to me why Kyle Boller is starting over Troy Smith in Baltimore? Smith came in at the end of last week’s Colt debacle and I said to myself, “where has this guy been all season”.
Pick: Dolphins (+3.5)
BROWNS (-5.5) Bills: Playoff feel to this game. The Bills match up well on defense with the Brown playmakers. Terrence McGee is an underrated CB and will match up with Braylon Edwards. Strong side LB Angelo Crowell will try to contain Kellen Winslow who is playing at a very high level this season. If Crowell holds him to 80 yards or less it will be a good day. If the Bills can stop Jamal Lewis to 100 yards or less, they win the game. Buffalo has a toughness about them that has fueled their winning record. They do not get fazed by the opponent and have Marshawn Lynch back to get them going on offense. Trent Edwards has played well the last couple of weeks and seems to have a good amount of poise in the pocket. Browns have yet to develop a killer instinct which almost hurt them last week against the Jets.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)
Packers (-10) RAMS: The Packers are a better team but the spread seems a bit high considering the Rams are starting Bulger and are a veteran team at home, playing for pride and some kind of redemption for this awful season.
Pick: Rams (+10)
STEELERS (-3.5) Jaguars: The Steelers have not impressed me as much as their record might dictate. Not sold on the Jaguars entering the season, my mind has changed the last 5 weeks or so. Gerrard is playing at a very high level and Fred Taylor looks young running the ball. Fred Taylor the most underrated back of my generation. The Jaguars are the tougher team and have a good bit of momentum going into this game.
Pick: Jaguars (+3.5)
Seahawks (-7.5) PANTHERS: The Panthers are a very bad team and should not pose a threat to Seattle this week. Seattle, with a pass first game plan, has started clicking on offense. They will need to run the ball better in the playoffs to advance, especially when the weather is not conducive to throwing. This is a good game get Alexander some stats and a confidence boost. Alexander looks very hesitant at the line and seems to be avoiding contact. Morris has been the better runner this season.
Pick: Seattle (-7.5)
Titans (-4) CHIEFS: If the Titans are serious about the playoffs, a win in KC has to be accomplished. The Titans are the better team with a better coach. A concern for Tennessee has to be the inconsistent play of Vince Young. He looked real good against the Texans two weeks ago, but played a poor game last week against the Chargers. He must play well the next 3 weeks for the Titans to make the playoffs. These three games will be test of Vince Young’s mettle early in his career.
Pick: Titans (-4)
Colts (-10.5) RAIDERS: Payton Manning is really starting to connect with Anthony Gonzalez , who has picked up on their complicated offense very quickly. This is a great development for the playoffs. When Marvin Harrison comes back, it will give Manning four viable options to throw to: Wayne, Harrison, Clark and Gonzalez. Indi is too much team for the Raiders to handle and this should be a walk over for the Colts. Coach Kiffen, can we watch Russel in an expanded role the last three weeks?
CHARGERS (-10) Lions: It’s really not that hard to play call for the Chargers. Run, Run, Run, Run, play-action, run, run, run, play-action, run, run, run, run, play-action. Norv, you have the best back in football with a competent back-up and a very good O-line, run the ball. I think this line is way too high, but after last week’s awful loss to the Cowboys, the Lions may be ready to give up.
Pick: Chargers (-10)
COWBOYS (-10.5) Eagles: The Cowboys have too many weapons for any defense to handle. Witten is a mismatch against the Eagle LBs and T.O. will be fired up. Jones and Barber will be able to run the ball on the Eagles. The question is will the Eagles score enough to cover? Even with Westbrook playing at an MVP level, I do not see the Eagles keeping up with the Cowboys in Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys (-10.5)
VIKINGS (-10) Chicago: Is this really the spread? Have the Bears fallen from grace this fast? Are the Vikings this good? The line-makers know more than me.
Pick: Vikings (-10)
Thursday, December 13, 2007
NFL Week 15 Thursday Night
Denver (-1) HOUSTON: If Andre Johnson plays the seven games he missed, the Texans would have 9 wins and playoff destiny in their own hands. Denver and Houston both stand at 6-7, and the only way either will make the playoffs is to run the table and then hope that Cleveland, Tennessee and Buffalo fade down the stretch. This is a lot to ask for so it seems that both teams are playing for pride rather than a playoff push. Sage Rosenfels will start for Houston. He has looked very good in this offense when pressed into action and should be able to move the ball. Houston is the better all round football team and has played with more consistency than Denver. Add to that home field and a defense playing better by the week, the Texans should be victorious.
Pick: Houston (+1)
Pick: Houston (+1)
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Liverpool vs. Marseille
Liverpool will visit Marseille this evening with the winner moving on to the knockout stage of this year's Champion's League Tournament. Team pride is at stake here, but also millions of dollars in revenue that goes with the knockout stage. Liverpool's manager Rafa Benitez rested Torres, Gerrard and Carragher this past weekend in a 3-1 loss to Reading to have them fresh for this match. "Right now, the Champions League is the most important competition for us," said Benitez. "We were really disappointed to lose the Reading game, but we're only thinking about this one and finding the right solutions."
The result in Anfield went Marseille's way when they played in October, and the French side will be ready to go, "We won't set out looking for a draw," said coach Erik Gerets. "Our preparations have been normal but, from the first second on Tuesday, the players will know they are in a special game, more intense than in the league. It's the match the fans have been waiting for and there'll be adrenalin aplenty on the pitch. We won't freeze, we'll be like lions." Marseille has played well of late, but the competition they have faced pales in comparison to the class that Liverpool will show today.
Liverpool is built for Champion's League play. As clear favorites to win the group, Liverpool played with a complacency that resulted in 2 losses from 3 games to start the group stage. In desperation mode, they have since beaten Bestikas and Porto handily and have knockout stage entry one win away. Liverpool is the better team, have much more experience in the big games, will be the aggressors and will hand Marseille a drubbing today.
The result in Anfield went Marseille's way when they played in October, and the French side will be ready to go, "We won't set out looking for a draw," said coach Erik Gerets. "Our preparations have been normal but, from the first second on Tuesday, the players will know they are in a special game, more intense than in the league. It's the match the fans have been waiting for and there'll be adrenalin aplenty on the pitch. We won't freeze, we'll be like lions." Marseille has played well of late, but the competition they have faced pales in comparison to the class that Liverpool will show today.
Liverpool is built for Champion's League play. As clear favorites to win the group, Liverpool played with a complacency that resulted in 2 losses from 3 games to start the group stage. In desperation mode, they have since beaten Bestikas and Porto handily and have knockout stage entry one win away. Liverpool is the better team, have much more experience in the big games, will be the aggressors and will hand Marseille a drubbing today.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
NFL Week 14 Picks
Last week 5 - 11 - 0
Season 89 - 94 - 9
Washington -3
Eagles -3
Browns -3
Jaguars -10.5
Lions +10.5
Dolphins +7
Packers -10.5
Patriots -10.5
Chargers pk
Bengals -6.5
Texans +3
Cardinals +7
Vikings -7
Chiefs +6.5
Ravens +9
Falcons +4
Season 89 - 94 - 9
Washington -3
Eagles -3
Browns -3
Jaguars -10.5
Lions +10.5
Dolphins +7
Packers -10.5
Patriots -10.5
Chargers pk
Bengals -6.5
Texans +3
Cardinals +7
Vikings -7
Chiefs +6.5
Ravens +9
Falcons +4
Friday, December 7, 2007
Redskins defeat Bears
I missed the first half, and the two QB injuries that happened. I feel for both of these men and wish them the best with their knees. Jason Campbell is a tremendous talent. Watching him, you can see his poise and confidence in the pocket. He has a great arm and can run with the ball. He has made some rookie mistakes and needs to work on his accuracy, but Gibbs made a correct assessment of Campbell's talents when he moved up in the draft a few years ago to get him.
What was Lovie Smith doing kicking the FG with 7 minutes to go and down by 7 points? The FG turned a 1 TD game into ..... a 1 TD game. You are at the 4 yard line, go for the TD. If unsuccessful, you at least have the Bears pinned deep in their territory. A very bad decision. I also did not agree with the play calling on 2nd and 3rd down before the ill- advised FG. I am not a huge fan of the fade route , but if you are going to try it twice, make sure one of them heads into the direction of Bernard Berrian. Both fades were to Greg Olsen, who is bigger than the CB covering him, but will not out-jump the CB.
What was Lovie Smith doing kicking the FG with 7 minutes to go and down by 7 points? The FG turned a 1 TD game into ..... a 1 TD game. You are at the 4 yard line, go for the TD. If unsuccessful, you at least have the Bears pinned deep in their territory. A very bad decision. I also did not agree with the play calling on 2nd and 3rd down before the ill- advised FG. I am not a huge fan of the fade route , but if you are going to try it twice, make sure one of them heads into the direction of Bernard Berrian. Both fades were to Greg Olsen, who is bigger than the CB covering him, but will not out-jump the CB.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Week 14 Thursday Night Game
WASHINGTON (-3) Chicago: If you are betting this game, you really have a problem. How do you analyze a game between two underachieving teams, who both lost winnable games at home last week, and are now playing on short rest? I am going with the Redskins here because they are at home and I think Jason Campbell is a better QB than the Bear tandem of Grossman and Griese. The Redskins should get a running game going against the Bears and Washington has enough on defense to keep the Bear offense in check. Kick the ball away from Hester on punts, take your chances on kickoffs.
Pick: Redskins (-3)
Pick: Redskins (-3)
Sunday, December 2, 2007
NFL Week 13 Picks
Last weekend 7 – 6 – 0
Season 84 – 83 – 9
Spreads are curtesy of the Friday New York post. HOME team in CAPS.
My pick is the first team listed.
Packers (+7) COWBOYS
BEARS (+2) Giants
Jets (+1) DOLPHINS
Falcons (+3) RAMS
REDSKINS (-5.5) Bills
VIKINGS (-4) Lions
Texans (+3.5) TITANS
Jaguars (+6.5) COLTS
Chargers (-6) CHIEFS
EAGLES (-3) Seahawks
49ers (+3) PANTHERS
Bucs (+3.5) SAINTS
Browns (pk) CARDS
Broncos (-3.5) RAIDERS
Bengals (+7) STEELERS
Patriots (-20) RAVENS
Season 84 – 83 – 9
Spreads are curtesy of the Friday New York post. HOME team in CAPS.
My pick is the first team listed.
Packers (+7) COWBOYS
BEARS (+2) Giants
Jets (+1) DOLPHINS
Falcons (+3) RAMS
REDSKINS (-5.5) Bills
VIKINGS (-4) Lions
Texans (+3.5) TITANS
Jaguars (+6.5) COLTS
Chargers (-6) CHIEFS
EAGLES (-3) Seahawks
49ers (+3) PANTHERS
Bucs (+3.5) SAINTS
Browns (pk) CARDS
Broncos (-3.5) RAIDERS
Bengals (+7) STEELERS
Patriots (-20) RAVENS
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Thursday Night Football
DALLAS (-7) Packers: Still do not trust the Dallas defense. Packers will spread the field and take advantage of the weak Cowboy secondary. It would be wise for the Packers to stick with a pass first mentality and not try to establish the run to keep the Dallas offense off the field. To change offensive strategy will only get the Packers into trouble. The Cowboys have an offense that can feature the run or pass, but the Packer defense matches up well with the Cowboy play-makers, especially at LB vs. Jason Whitten and Julius Jones/Marion Barber.
Pick: Packers (+7)
Pick: Packers (+7)
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